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In the first Constituent Assembly election held in 2008, Madhes-based parties emerged as a dominant political force in Nepal’s political landscape. In the years that followed, however, they gradually weakened due to repeated internal splits and leadership disputes. As a result, Madhes-based parties performed poorly in the 2013, 2017, and 2022 elections. In the current electoral cycle, these parties are once again pursuing unification in an attempt to revive their declining political influence. This time, however, they face a serious challenge from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). At the same time, major national parties, namely the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Nepali Communist Party, are devoting significant time and resources to Madhes to strengthen their national political standing. Against this backdrop, there is growing concern about the electoral prospects of Madhes-based parties in the March 5 parliamentary elections. Madhes-centric political parties, which have long prioritized identity and inclusiveness in their agendas, are making renewed efforts to reclaim lost strength and credibility. Yet, more than a decade after the implementation of federalism, they have failed to articulate fresh and concrete political agendas. They have also been unable to institutionalize proportional representation and inclusiveness within their own party structures. Long accused of ethnic politics and dynastic leadership, these parties have repeatedly aligned with major national parties—many of which they once labeled anti-federalist—largely for power-sharing arrangements. Such alliances have been poorly received in the Madhes, contributing to a steady erosion of public trust and support. Meanwhile, Nepal’s major parties have increasingly adopted the language of identity and inclusiveness, further blurring the ideological distinctiveness of Madhes-based parties. As a result, these parties now face both political marginalization and the erosion of their core support base. Unity bids amid declining trust In an effort to remain relevant in national politics and ensure representation, Madhes-centric parties have once again moved toward unity. The Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), led by Upendra Yadav, and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), led by Mahanta Thakur, have agreed to cooperate and jointly contest the elections. With Thakur serving as party patron and LSP chair, the JSP has fielded candidates in all 32 constituencies across the Madhes. According to JSP General Secretary Ramkumar Sharma, unity was unavoidable. “Federalism is in crisis, and the issue of identity is on the verge of disappearing. We must protect the achievements of the Madhes movement,” he said. Sharma added that the alliance aims to counter threats to democracy, federalism, and political transformation, ensure the formation of a democratic and reform-oriented government, and prevent the misuse of voters’ mandates. Despite these claims, internal dissent has intensified. Mahanta Thakur, who won the House of Representatives elections in 2017 and 2022 from Mahottari Constituency No. 3 with the support of the Nepali Congress and other parties, announced that he would not contest the March 5 election. Instead, he opted to become a member of the National Assembly. Initially, this decision generated optimism within the party. However, controversy erupted when Thakur nominated his daughter, Dr Minakshi Thakur, as his replacement. Party leader and former minister Harinarayan Yadav rebelled, filing his own candidacy against her. This decision split the JSP into two factions. Leaders Krishna Yadav and Shyam Yadav actively campaigned for Harinarayan Yadav, while Ramkumar Sharma and several others backed Minakshi Thakur. Critics within the party argue that Thakur secured a “safe seat” for his daughter while preparing to move to the National Assembly. Defending his decision, Thakur said, “I devoted my life to politics and public service. Why is it wrong to make my daughter my political successor in old age? Why should she be barred from contesting simply because she is my daughter?” Before party unification, Thakur had been the sole LSP nominee from Mahottari–3, while the JSP had recommended Ramkumar Sharma and Harinarayan Yadav. After unification, control over ticket distribution shifted to Thakur. A senior party leader alleged that experienced grassroots leaders were sidelined in favor of dynastic considerations. Defections and vote fragmentation Further weakening the party, former minister Pradeep Yadav—who had led Madhesi politics in Parsa since the Madhes Movement—left the JSP just one day before nominations. He contested from Parsa–1 as a CPN-UML candidate after being denied a ticket by Upendra Yadav. UML chair KP Sharma Oli promptly granted him the nomination. Along with Pradeep Yadav, seven ward chairs, including Birgunj Metropolitan City Mayor Rajeshman Singh, also joined the UML. Pradeep Yadav said he left the JSP to safeguard his political future after sensing betrayal and marginalization. He claimed the UML was the only party capable of protecting the constitution and democracy, citing KP Sharma Oli’s nationalist stance as a motivating factor. The JSP has fielded Ramnaresh Prasad Yadav in Parsa–1 and nominated industrialist Ashok Temani in Parsa–2. Meanwhile, Sushil Kumar Kanu—a former ward chair and close ally of Pradeep Yadav—left the JSP to contest as a Rastriya Swatantra Party candidate, further increasing the likelihood of vote splitting. Similar concerns persist in Parsa–3 and Parsa–4, where JSP candidates lack strong grassroots support and senior leaders have been replaced by new entrants. Broader fragmentation of Madhes politics Veteran Madhes leader Anil Jha, once closely associated with Madhes-based politics, is now a Nepali Congress candidate from Rautahat–1. He argues that strengthening the federal democratic republic should take precedence over party affiliation. “Even leaders elected from Madhes-based parties fail to secure opportunities for Madhesis,” he said, advocating issue-based politics over power-driven alliances. The Federal Democratic Front, formed to coordinate Madhes-centric parties, has also failed to maintain unity. Despite early agreements, member parties are contesting against one another in multiple constituencies. The JSP, Janamat Party, Rastriya Mukti Party, and Nagarik Unmukti Party are directly competing in Saptari and Sarlahi, underscoring the collapse of coordinated electoral strategy. Historical context: Rise and repeated splits Madhes gained strong political visibility after the 2006 People’s Movement, although organized Madhesi politics dates back to the 1950s BS with Vedananda Jha’s Nepal Tarai Congress. The Madhes Movement of 2007, which was triggered by the exclusion of Madhes issues from the Interim Constitution, forced the state to address demands such as federalism and inclusion. The Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF), led by Upendra Yadav, emerged from this movement as a major political force. In the 2008 Constituent Assembly election, Madhes-based parties secured significant representation, with the MJF winning 54 seats. Internal divisions soon followed. The party split in 2010, and the years that followed were marked by repeated fragmentation, mergers, and realignments. Although the parties briefly reunited ahead of the 2017 election—securing 19 seats in Madhes Province—the unity proved short-lived. In the 2022 election, Madhes-based parties collectively won only 10 seats. Although the JSP and LSP reunited in late 2025, the historical pattern of fragmentation continues to cast doubt on the durability of this alliance. Once a powerful political force, Madhes-based parties have been weakened by internal divisions, opportunistic alliances, and dynastic practices. While renewed unity offers an opportunity for revival, persistent mistrust, leadership disputes, and ideological dilution continue to undermine their credibility. Whether this latest attempt at consolidation can reverse their decline remains an open question. Additional reporting by  Manika Jha, Raj Karan Mahato and Kranti Sah