Upcoming House elections: New possibilities
A series of instabilities and government changes that have recurred in Nepal’s political history have once again pushed the country toward the election path. There is a mixture of excitement and apprehension in political circles regarding the House of Representatives elections scheduled for March 5 next year. The elections will not be held as per the usual schedule, but have been announced after the dissolution of parliament as a result of the recent political crisis and youth movements.
Background of the crisis
The government formed after the 2079 elections in Nepal did not complete its full term. In recent months, the country has been rocked by youth-led (Gen Z) protests. These protests were mainly against economic inequality, corruption, and unemployment, which claimed lives. This put pressure on the political leadership and ultimately led to the dissolution of parliament.
On Sept 13, President Ramchandra Paudel dissolved the House of Representatives on the recommendation of interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki, a retired Chief Justice. The decision paves the way for the country to hold elections within six months. The President has appealed to all parties to cooperate in making the elections a success. The elections will be held under a mixed electoral system, with 165 of the 275 seats being direct and 110 proportional.
The developments highlight Nepal's political instability. Nepal has seen 13 governments since 2008, which has affected development and stability. Youth movements have challenged traditional parties, and new political forces are likely to emerge through the upcoming vote.
Population and voter turnout
According to the 2022 census, Nepal’s total population is 29,192,480. The number of registered voters thus far is 17,988,570. This shows that about two-thirds of the population was of age to directly participate in the electoral process. But a large part of the population is still children or ineligible to vote. This fact indicates that a large part of the young generation will be decisive in building the future in a developing country like Nepal. The structure of the population is a factor that affects the election results in the long term.
Voter turnout
Altogether 61.85 percent of voters took part in the 2022 elections. Out of 17,988,570 registered voters, about 11,125,931 voted. This percentage is medium in the context of South Asian countries. This shows that the interest of Nepali citizens in the democratic process is still sufficient, but not completely satisfactory. About 38 percent of registered voters did not vote, suggesting that factors like dissatisfaction with political parties, weaknesses in the electoral system or socio-economic reasons may have kept the eligible voters away from the electoral process.
Absentee population and foreign employment
The most serious problem in the context of elections is the absentee population. It is currently estimated that about 3m-3.5m Nepali citizens work or live abroad. Most of these are youth, leaving a huge gap in the country’s productive workforce and democratic participation.
In the fiscal 2022-23 alone, 771,327 youth obtained permits for foreign employment. This figure clearly shows the intensity of the labor exodus from Nepal. These same youths, who could have played a significant role in shaping the country’s political future, were absent on the polling day. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that Nepal’s electoral system does not provide an opportunity for citizens abroad to vote. Many countries have made arrangements for their citizens who are abroad or working abroad to vote by mail, through embassies or through online systems. But because Nepal has failed to take steps in this area, the voices of about 20 percent of potential voters were not reflected in the election results.
Gap in representation
The absentee population has created a huge gap in democratic practice. Youth are the bearers of new ideas, policy reforms and long-term development. When they are excluded from the voting process, policies made in parliament cannot address their needs and priorities. In this way, it can be concluded that the 2022 election results were based on incomplete popular representation. Although the Election Commission officially showed a 61.85 percent turnout, this figure failed to include millions of citizens living abroad.
Lack of voting through reps
There was neither a system for voting from abroad in the 2022 election, nor a system for proxy voting. Therefore, the people absent from the country due to foreign employment or migration were deprived of the right to vote. This has weakened the guarantee of equal rights and participation enshrined in the Constitution of Nepal. Depriving people who have obtained citizenship but are living abroad from voting is a curtailment of civil rights.
Strategy of major parties
The major parties in the political landscape of Nepal are the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (UML), the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) and other smaller parties. In the previous election, the Congress won 89 seats, the UML 78 and the Maoist Center 32 seats. But the current crisis has brought about a reshuffle in coalitions.
Nepali Congress: This party represents democratic values and could be influenced by the youth movement. Its base is strong in rural areas and the Madhesh, but corruption allegations have weakened it. The party is likely to raise economic reforms and employment as issues during the elections.
CPN-UML: Under the leadership of KP Oli, this party has emerged with a nationalist image. It has adopted a policy of balancing relations with India and China. The party has also been influenced by the youth movement, but its organizational strength is strong.
Maoist Center: Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s party emphasizes social justice, but frequent coalition changes have eroded its credibility.
Against this backdrop, coalitions will be crucial. As in the past, there is a possibility of bargaining to form a government after the elections. The interim government has claimed to make the elections fair, but the opposition calls it a plot to seize power.
Challenges and risks
The main challenges facing this election include political violence, economic crisis, ethnic and regional disparities, and election management. Violence during the youth movement could affect the vote, which could reduce voter turnout and increase the need for international observation. Nepal’s low GDP growth rate and high unemployment have led to an economic crisis, which could increase discontent if parties do not prioritize economic issues. Tensions between the Madhes and hilly regions have given rise to ethnic and regional disparities, which could raise questions about the legitimacy of the election if there is no inclusive representation. Also, the preparation of the Election Commission and the post-Covid health security situation could pose problems in election management, which could increase allegations of fraud.
These challenges have complicated the election. The interim government is trying to bring stability within six months, but the discontent of the younger generation could lead to new political changes.
A sense of the future
This election could take Nepal in two directions: on the one hand, a stable government and a leap forward in development, on the other, a return to instability. If the major parties address youth issues (employment, education, environment), they can gain support from the new generation. If new parties win more than 50 percent of the seats, a nationalist wave could emerge in Nepali politics. Ultimately, this election is a test of Nepal’s democracy. If all parties cooperate as the President has called for, it can succeed. But parties must be accountable to the people to break the cycle of corruption and instability. Nepal must seize this opportunity to chart a course toward stability and prosperity.
