Submit your Article

Delay in constitution amend­ment, a life sentence to law­maker Resham Chaudhary for his role in the 2015 Tikapur killings, and an 11-point agreement with the secessionist leader CK Raut seem to have brought two Madhes-based parties, the Rastriya Janta Party Nepal (RJPN) and the Federal Social­ist Party Nepal (FSPN), closer.The unification process is in its initial phase. The RJPN has recently formed a talk team led by Rajendra Mahato with four other members, namely Brikesh Lal, Ramesh Yadav, Keshav Jha and Sunil Rohit. The FSPN had already formed a talk team led by Rajendra Shrestha five months ago. Unification may take some time, but leaders of both the parties claim sincere efforts to that end have been made since their electoral alliance in 2017.

A few factors have contributed to bringing them together. Madhesi leaders say they had expected Prime Minister KP Oli to push the consti­tution amendment proposal. With no progress, the RJPN withdrew its support to the government and pres­sure is building on FSPN Chairman Upendra Yadav to speak up about the amendment.

Ram Sahaya Yadav, FSPN Gen­eral Secretary, and other senior party leaders are of the view that if the two-point agreement the party signed with the government is not implemented, there is no point in staying on in the government. As a result, Upendra Yadav is gradually hardening his stance on constitution amendment. He recently said, “The prime minister has assured us that he won’t renege on his promise. But there is a limit to our patience.”

Leaders of both the FSPN and the RJPN aver that only a united party can put enough pressure on Kath­mandu to amend the charter. Says Professor Surendra Labh, a Janak­pur-based political analyst, “Grass­roots cadres see ongoing efforts as inadequate. They feel a need for more concerted pressure on the government to see the amendment through. This thinking seems to have brought the two parties closer.”

 'The prime minister has assured us that he won’t renege on his promise. But there is a limit to our patience'

Upendra Yadav, FSPN Chairman

Chaudhary irritant

The Kailali district court’s deci­sion to hand down a life sentence to RJPN lawmaker Resham Chaudhary has served as another unifier, with both parties considering it a political case that should have never gone to court. Immediately after the Kailali court issued its verdict, the govern­ment reached an 11-point agreement with CK Raut, who was behind bars for championing an independent Madhes. The Madhes-based parties were irked that the government did not consult them and suspect the move was aimed at weakening them.

“The deal with Raut prompted the FSPN and the RJPN to expe­dite unification,” says a Madhes observer. Leaders of the two parties fear Raut could emerge as a strong political force in Madhes and pose a threat to them. Labh says although talks of unifica­tion between the FSPN and the RJPN had begun earlier, the 11-point deal with Raut was an addi­tional spur. Leaders and Madhes watchers also point to the pressure from India. It is an open secret that the southern neighbor has been urg­ing the Madhes-based parties to unite and come up with a strong political force.

Despite all these fac­tors, the question as to whether the two par­ties will actually unite remains open. Their leaders say despite broad convergence of views on various issues, it is not easy to form a single party. The immediate challenge is related to support for the govern­ment. While the RJPN thinks Yadav should quit the government before unification, the FSPN maintains no condi­tion should be imposed for unity talks and government-related issues should be dealt with after unification.

Figuring out the new party’s leadership will be tricky too. The RJPN is for a presidium model, under which six mem­bers take turns as party coordinator. In the third week of April 2017, six of the seven Madhes-based parties under the then Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM) had formed the Rastriya Janta Party Nepal (RJPN) so as to consolidate their strength. But Upendra Yadav chose not to join it.

Problematic presidium

As the presidium model has already created many problems in the party, it is unlikely to be con­tinued after the unification. At least three RJPN leaders will claim leadership of the unified party. But so will Yadav, given the FSPN’s strength in federal and provincial parliaments. Says political analyst Vijya Kanta Karna, “Party leadership will be difficult to settle. But if it is settled, unification won’t be diffi­cult.” Karna says the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is also beset by problems because it has two chairmen.

If the presidium model is accepted at the center, it will lead to organi­zational problems at the grassroots.

Yet another challenge, according to Madhes observers, is the intra-party dispute rife in both the RJPN and the FSPN. “There are disputes within the two parties over leader­ship. These disputes could worsen if the parties decide on unification,” says Labh.

The RJPN and the FSPN aren’t much divided on the ideological front. They had the same position during constitution drafting and had jointly launched the Madhes move­ment. They also fought the election together and they have a coalition government in Province 2. As such, the two parties have many common interests, which could provide a solid foundation for unification.

If and when the unification goes ahead, each party’s strength at the federal and provincial levels will obviously count. The RJPN was formed after the unification of six Madhes-based parties, but in the three tiers of elections in 2017, the FSPN secured almost equal seats in the House of Representatives and won more seats than the RJPN in Province 2.

In the HoR, the RJPN has 17 mem­bers—11 directly elected and six from proportional representation—while the FSPN has 16 members—10 directly elected and six from pro­portional representation. In the National Assembly, they have two seats each.

Contested claims

In Province 2, the FSPN has formed the government with the RJPN’s support. In the provincial parliament, the FSPN is the larg­est party with 29 seats against the RJPN’s 25. FSPN leaders say their claim to party leadership is there­fore justified.

Upendra Yadav has a strong organizational base at the grass­roots, which is why his party secures a sizable presence even in difficult times. Observers say hard work sets him apart from other Madhesi leaders. Yadav frequently visits Tarai districts and meets the party rank and file. He has also maintained good relations with other political parties and the international community.

The caste factor seems to be equally important. Upendra Yadav is regarded as a towering figure in the Yadav community, which is eco­nomically and educationally strong. Even in the whole of Madhes, Yadav is considered an important leader, second perhaps only to Mahanta Thakur. As such, the FSPN is strong and coherent. The RJPN, by con­trast, is not united either at the cen­ter or at the grassroots, and is rela­tively weaker.

Even if unification between the two parties proves elusive, they are likely to forge an alliance to press for constitution amendment and to minimize the Raut factor in Madhes. During the Madhes movement in 2015 and the elections in 2017, there was already a working alliance.

“During the formation of the Oli-led government, the RJPN and the FSPN made decisions inde­pendently. Whereas Yadav joined the government, the RJPN sup­ported it from the outside. Now, even if they don’t unite, it’d be good for Madhes if they can maintain an alliance,” says Labh.

By: Toyanath Bhattarai, Illam

Only five armed forest guards are currently deployed for protect­ing 38,000 hectares of forest in Chure and other areas of Ilam, a district in the eastern hills. With the restructuring of the Department of Forests, the number of forest guards has been drastically reduced, making things easier for smug­glers. Earlier, the number of positions for armed forest guards was 33.

Shree Prasad Baral, an officer at the Department of Forests in Ilam, says that the change has added to the challenges of forest con­servation. The change was introduced partly because of the decline in forest cover in the area. Of late, a num­ber of municipalities and rural municipalities in Ilam have witnessed decreasing numbers of Sal trees. “But the government has not paid attention to improving the conservation mechanism or increasing the manpower for forest protection. There are only 40 unarmed forest guards,” says Baral.

Last year, forest guards were attacked by a group of 80 wood smugglers at Ratuwa Khola Chepti in Chulachuli rural municipality. Since the smugglers didn’t escape from the area even after the guards fired seven rounds of bullet, armed police personnel from Beldangi in the adjoining district of Jhapa had to be called in. Smuggling of wood has not stopped even when the Department of For­ests, Nepal Police and Armed Police Force have been guard­ing the forests.

 Smuggled logs from Ilam are reportedly sold to saw mills in Jhapa and Morang

Last year, forest guards were attacked by a group of 80 wood smugglers at Ratuwa Khola

Locals say that smuggling has been taking place from different checkpoints and rivers in Mai municipality and Chulachuli rural munic­ipality. A few days ago, secu­rity personnel recovered 73 cubic feet of wood from a house in Mai municipality. APF Inspector Sanat Kumar Bista of Danabari says no proof of personal owner­ship of the wood could be found. He also says that while wood smuggling in Dana­bari has come down due to the presence of armed secu­rity personnel, it still is tak­ing place in certain parts of Domukha and Chulachuli.

Pradip Chandra Rai, Chair­person of Chulachuli rural municipality, says smugglers have put Ilam’s Chure region at risk. “Even those arrested are later found to be porters employed by smugglers,” he laments. According to him, the smuggled wood from Ilam is taken across Ratuwa and Chanju rivers and transported to Jhapa. Locals claim logs are sometimes taken to Jhapa by drifting them downstream in the Mai river, and then smuggled across the border to India.

Suraj Niraula, an assistant officer at Sub-Division Forest Office in Mai, pleads ignorance about the smuggling of wood from Ilam along the river. “I’m new here and taking stock of the situation,” he says.

That smuggled wood from Chure is transported using public buses, trucks and even bicycles is mentioned in a report published by the National Natural Resources and Fiscal Commission in 2010. The logs from Ilam are reportedly sold to saw mills in Jhapa and Morang.

 “Do you regularly visit the doctor?”, “Are there any complications?”, “Do you take iron pills regularly?” asks a team of local representa­tives led by Mayor Upendra Bahadur Thapa to Sarita Nam­jali, an eight-month pregnant woman. Sarita is a resident of Panchapuri municipality in Surkhet, a hilly district in Karnali Province.

Sarita could not open up easily in the beginning. But after the ward chair Hom Bahadur Ramjali requested her, she said, “I get regular check-ups. I haven’t really had problems so far.”

After talking to Sarita, the team asked her mother-in-law Kaushila Namjali, to take good care of Sarita and to serve her nutritious meals. They even got the family to sign a pledge to do so.

The local representatives of Panchapuri municipality are visiting individual house­holds to observe the condi­tion of pregnant women and advise their families to care for them. They started doing so after they found that preg­nant women in the area were not getting regular check-ups and eating nutritious food, which has contributed to higher maternal mortality and a greater number of malnour­ished children in the region. According to one study, 55 percent of Karnali’s children suffer from malnutrition.

“It is important to make sure that pregnant women eat well and receive proper care. They face higher risks if they do not get regular medical check-ups,” says Mayor Thapa. “The govern­ment has a responsibility to ensure that pregnant women are safe. It’s something that we’re sensitive about.”

Apart from the elected representatives, local health workers, women volunteers and members of mother groups also visit preg­nant women and give them health-related suggestions.

A campaign has also been launched to hoist a green flag in every household that has a pregnant woman so as to identify such houses easily. “We have been closely observ­ing the condition of pregnant women in our locale. When­ever we see a green flag, we visit the household for consul­tation and monitoring,” says ward chair Ramjali.

Besides the flags, posters and banners with instructions on good eating habits for pregnant women are posted at the front of these homes. Also, family members pledge to make sure that pregnant women get regular medical check-ups, give birth in a hos­pital and receive good post-na­tal care.

Nirmala Singh, a female community health volun­teer, affirms that this cam­paign has contributed to improve care for moth­ers and babies. She also expresses happiness that local representatives are them­selves actively involved in such an inspiring campaign.

Self-defense training in schools for teenage girls

 Surkhet : Female students in about a dozen schools in Surkhet have been receiv­ing self-defense training. The three-day-long classes, which are being run by Global Action Nepal, an NGO, teach girl students what to do in case someone tries to sexually harass or rape them.

Mina Bishwokarma, a social mobilizer at Global Action Nepal, claims that the train­ing is helpful in combating sexual harassment that girls face. Trainer Gita Koirala says, “These classes are important for girls. They constantly face the risk of sexual harassment. Those who take this training are able to fight back better.”

“We learnt ways to fight sexual assaults. We will teach these skills to others. I feel more secure than before,” says Nischal Koirala, a student who received the training.

Two political developments—a life sentence for lawmaker Resham Chaudhary and an 11-point agreement with secessionist Madhesi leader CK Raut—have widened the rift between the federal government and the Madhes-based parties. 

According to the leaders of the Madhes-based parties and Madhes experts APEX contacted, Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) and Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSPN) see these government moves as ploys to discredit them in Madhes, while giving undue space to Raut, who does not have a strong organizational and political base there. Currently a part of the federal government, FSPN is not as vocal about it as RJPN. But FSPN Chairman Upendra Yadav, who is also Minister for Health, has said that Raut had effectively ‘surrendered’ before the state.

Sources say Raut’s portrayal as being on a par with the Madhes-based parties in federal and provincial parliaments is unrealistic. “PM Oli is projecting Raut as our rival political force, which is a gross miscalculation. Our major competitor in Madhes is either Nepal Communist Party led by Oli himself or Nepali Congress,” says RJPN Secretary Keshav Jha. “PM Oli cannot weaken us in Madhes and boost his party and Raut instead,” he adds.

RJPN and FSPN leaders as well as Madhes-watchers are of the view that regional parties should have been consulted before the agreement. Madhesi leaders also argue that if the government can seemingly strike an agreement with Raut after asking the judiciary to release him, it could have similarly withdrawn the case against lawmaker Resham Chaudhary. They say while Chaudhary’s case is a political one, Raut’s is treasonous and there can be no comparison between the two.

A long-time Madhes watcher says that the Madhes-based parties are unhappy with the government for not consulting them. “It would have been better if the Madhes-based parties were consulted because they are stakeholders in Madhesi politics. The deal has soured the relationship between the government and the Madhes-based parties, which does not bode well for the stability of Madhes,” he says, requesting anonymity.

Oli’s calculation

The Madhes-based parties had portrayed Oli as being anti-Madhes during and after the constitution-drafting process. But when Oli became prime minister with a two-third majority, they surprisingly supported him. Oli promised to amend the constitution on the basis of necessity. But nobody was under any illusion that he would actually do so, which was perhaps why FSPN led by Upendra Yadav joined the government without the amendment.

RJPN was pressing Oli to amend the constitution. Indeed, both Madhes-based parties were in favor of joining the Oli government. RJPN sought constitution amendment as a face-saver to join the government but Oli did not budge.

Oli had sensed that RJPN would withdraw its support to the government after the Kailali court issued its verdict on Chaudhary. At the same time, negotiations were underway with Raut. “As PM Oli has failed to deliver, he hyped up the Raut case to show that he has scored an important political gain. Now, the PM is into political marketing, claiming that he ended a secessionist movement,” says Bijaya Kanta Karna, a close follower of successive Madhes movements. Similarly, according to observers, signing a deal with Raut signals that Oli wants to expand NCP’s space in Madhes.

“Oli wants to increase his acceptability in Madhes as he knows his nationalist card won’t work again even in the hills in the next election cycle. To emerge as the largest party again, he needs to enhance his image in Madhes,” says Karna. So Oli’s first priority will be to bring Raut into NCP by making him a lawmaker, if not a minister. Even if that does not work, Oli wants to weaken the Madhes-based parties by giving more space and power to Raut. This, in the view of observers, could also weaken Nepali Congress in Madhes, a traditional NC vote bank.

A Madhes watcher says the Madhesbased parties are unhappy with the government for not consulting them

Raut’s reasons

It is unclear whether Raut will honor the 11-point agreement. He has told his cadres that there has been an agreement for a referendum and it should be celebrated as an achievement. Observers cite a couple of reasons which might have compelled Raut to sign the agreement. In 2012, he had returned to Nepal, giving up an attractive job in the US. His had high political ambitions. In the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2013, the Madhes-based parties fared poorly and Raut sensed an opportunity.  

But in the succeeding years, he struggled to expand his space, even as the mainstream Madhesi parties recouped some of the ground they had lost in 2013. Now, the provincial government (in Province 2) is led by the Madhes-based parties. Raut was upbeat when security forces started to project his group as a major security threat. But he struggled to build his party, making him very frustrated in recent months, according to Madhes observers.

The government then arrested him, and he probably started feeling that he could be behind bars all his life. Meanwhile, his family started putting pressure on him to renounce extremism. Oli was offering him space and a respectable position if he joined peaceful politics. “In the past he was successful in attracting radical youths with his secessionist agenda, but now he has given up that agenda. As peaceful politics is already the forte of Madhesi parties, NC and NCP, it won’t be easy for Raut in Madhes,” says Karna.

Who’s backing Raut?

After Raut returned to Nepal in 2012 and launched the secessionist movement, there was a certain curiosity: who is backing him? Some pointed to foreign forces, but that was never established. A Madhesi observer says if Raut was backed by foreign forces, ‘he was unlikely to surrender’ before the government. Another senior Madhesi leader requesting anonymity says Raut had at one point sought India’s support. Instead, Indian security forces wanted to rein in his activities in Madhes.

“Raut was a card of some unseen forces who worked against the Madhes-based parties. Now, this has been exposed and Raut’s 11-point agreement with the government does not affect our politics in Madhes,” says Jitendra Sonal, a parliamentary party leader of RJPN from Province 2.

Leaders and Madhes experts say Raut cannot return to his earlier campaign, which would violate his agreement with the government, but there are multiple options before him. Raut could register his own party and work to build up his organization, targeting the elections after four years. And he could peacefully raise the issue of a referendum in Madhes. He could also join NCP if he gets an attractive position. Another, albeit less likely, possibility is that he would gradually distance himself from politics and return to his profession. “He could choose any of these options,” says Manis Suman, General Secretary of RJPN. 

What of RJPN and FSPN?

RJPN and FSPN have limited options. Observers say as there is no environment in Madhes for another popular movement, the only option left for them is to ‘wait and see’.

RJPN’s first priority, according to its leaders, is to maintain intra-party unity and strengthen organizational structures. They say they are not worried because RJPN controls the government in Province 2, as well as most of its local level bodies, which will come in handy in the next election cycle. As RJPN has already withdrawn its support to the government, the party would focus on enhancing its position in Madhes. In FSPN’s case, the party is likely to wait a while. “We have already started our struggle from the parliament and we are planning a street protest. We are holding discussions with all political forces that stand for the politics of identiy,” says Jha.  

At the local level, conflict between the cadres of RJPN and those of CK Raut could escalate. Raut’s supporters accuse the Madhes-based parties of failing to adequately raise important Madhesi issues and focusing solely on power and money. On the other hand, leaders of the Madhes-based parties used to accuse Raut of trying to split the country. Now, they accuse him of surrendering to KP Oli.

RJPN will continue to press the Oli government to amend the constitution. Though it seems unlikely, there have been talks about unity between RJPN and FSPN. Some leaders do not rule out the possibility of Oli reaching out to the Madhes-based parties either.  

A FSPN leader, who also requested anonymity, says the party will not immediately quit the government. “We will definitely quit when public frustration with the government boils over, but we are in no hurry. This government still has four years,” he said.