“There is a season (Turn! Turn! Turn!)—and a time to every purpose, under Heaven A time to be born, a time to die; a time to plant, a time to reap” —The Byrds (1965) Just as the popular song from the 60s sings of the season to plant and the season to reap, the equity market throughout the world also shows seasonal preferences: going either red (down) or green (up). When it comes to active stakeholders, the same is true of the NEPSE. If you talk to these active investors/traders, you get positive nods all around. Dig deeper, and with satisfying smile they will share the secrets of accumulation while the market sees red and the masses start to strongly believe that the scrips will come below par value. The same investors/traders become active in distribution when the market becomes bullish and the masses feel the uptrend will continue indefinitely.
The active seasonal investors in the market talk of the months of March, April and May as the planting season. The rationale is that companies have already earned for half-a-year and published financial reports for the first two quarters, making it easier for the investors to assess and compare between the scrips. By mid-April, the third quarter reports start getting published, which further verifies the earning trend of the scrips.
The comparison between the earning per share (EPS) of different scrips along with price-to-earnings ratios (P/E ratio); the regulatory provisions guiding the companies to increase the capital base or reserves; and the past dividend history, all makes it easier for the investors who like to take calculated risk. As the seasonal investors/traders take their position, the general public starts to notice an increase in demand and price. As more buyers enter the market, the smaller green flickers change into large bullish flames.
The fourth quarter reports and AGM notices bring in the climax to the season. The salivating bull spreads contagious greed all around, making the majority euphoric with new-found ‘knowledge’ and ‘unrealized’ gains. The seasonal investors and calculated risk-takers feel the impending doom. They slowly change their stance from BUY/HOLD position to SELL. The supply grows and the early adopters move in, bringing more supply and changing the signals from green to red. Historically, the harvest season is between August and September, to be followed by longer stretches of correction and bearish movement.
The market consists of ‘smart’ people. They do notice the patterns and make attempts to beat them. That is why historical patterns tend to change their normal course of movement at regular intervals. This was noticed in 2017 too. The seasonal entry in the month of March was followed by investors/traders who knew that the pending capital increment issue of the banking and financial sector and certainty of the elections would bring in the masses sooner than in the normal times.
The same expectations and realities gave the stakeholders additional opportunity to make a quick bullish run in the July-August period too. Fast forward to 2018 and we are seeing a similar buying interest since the start of April. This is further fueled by the fact that insurance companies have to complete the capital increment process by mid-July. The bull run triggered by insurance sector and followed by micro finance can last till August-September only if the run is backed equally by the banking and financial sectors.
