Diplomatic license
After the Americans, Russians
Nepal-India relations have supposedly hit rock bottom after the publication of a new Indian map incorporating Kalapani. The PMO in India is livid a country as close as Nepal does not understand its security sensitivities over Kalapani, and that the ‘China-controlled’ Oli government allowed ‘sponsored’ anti-India protests on Nepali soil. The Indians aren’t convinced that the PMO in Nepal was pushed into a corner by a wave of genuine anti-India protests. True to his nationalist mien, PM Oli has said he is ready to lose his premiership to reclaim Kalapani. Nepali Congress, bereft of any other agenda, has also enthusiastically latched on to an overtly anti-India line over Kalapani.
Yet there is also business as usual between New Delhi and Kathmandu. The two sides recently hammered out agreements giving Nepal the use of more Indian ports for bulk cargo transport. Meanwhile, Kalapani, both Nepal and India insist, will be settled through dialogue. Separately, could it be that the timing of the map’s publication was no fluke, right after the Nepal visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping? You know, just showing who is boss in this neck of the woods, and in a perfect illustration of ‘two steps forward one back’ diplomacy?
As former Indian ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Rae put it recently, the Modi regime is unduly worried about China’s push into Nepal, when it’s crystal clear that ‘China can never be an alternative to India’. But Modi does not get that, does he? Whatever his personal feelings, he has to be nice to Kathmandu and to continue to offer it inducements. Otherwise the Chinese won’t just come; they could completely gobble up Nepal. Therefore, even though the Indians hint that Xi’s visit might have forestalled Modi’s own Nepal trip, New Delhi is still making concessions to Nepali negotiators.
The prospect of the Chinese railway being extended to Lumbini, right beside their regional military aviation hub, is alarming for Indian strategic thinkers. Nor are they too pleased with the signing of what they see as a de facto extradition treaty with China. The Americans are even more worried, and searching for every possible traction. They have long asked Nepal to install the PIECES border control database at the TIA, which would give the Americans data on all incoming visitors. Nepal’s failure to do so was perhaps one reason the TIA was flagged in a recent American terrorism report.
It’s remarkable how quickly the traditional Indo-China rivalry in Nepal has morphed into a trilateral one. It might still broaden. The entry of Russia—whose Nepali embassy used to host underground meetings during the Cold War—will be another interesting twist. In the American eyes, Vladimir Putin has no business in Nepal except to act as China’s enabler and spoiler of American Indo-Pacific dreams. Those in the know say Nepal is dead serious about hosting Putin and he might really come, sooner than later, with a bit of Chinese goading. Suddenly, from being ignored by much of the world, Kathmandu is quickly turning into a hub of international diplomacy. No wonder Oli feels emboldened on Kalapani.
