The coalition government of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, which came to power with the promise of stability, has failed to deliver on its mission. Now, it has become almost a daily mantra for Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba to assure the public that their coalition remains intact. Every day, Prime Minister Oli seeks reassurance from his colleague Deuba that there is no threat to the government’s survival.
For instance, upon returning from a tour of Thailand, Deuba told reporters that there were no problems within the coalition. Prime Minister Oli has since been using this statement as a reference point to claim that his government is moving ahead smoothly. The two leaders are meeting frequently, but that does not necessarily mean that everything is fine. Tensions could be gradually building between the two parties. A frequently asked question among the media is about the longevity of the government. This has created a public perception that the coalition could collapse anytime, even though it may not happen immediately. It has shaped a widespread belief that even a government formed by the two largest parties has failed to convey a message of political stability.
Amidst this uncertainty, Prime Minister Oli and Deuba held a one-on-one meeting on April 26, although neither side has disclosed what actually transpired. Rumors of government change last week prompted Deuba to call Oli and assure him that the NC’s support remains firm. However, their failure to effectively handle contentious issues has fueled doubts about the coalition’s future. Past examples show how even minor issues have triggered the fall of governments. For instance, it took a long time for the two parties to agree on removing Kulman Ghising from the post of executive director of the Nepal Electricity Authority. A more recent example is the delayed appointment of the Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank due to differences between the NC and UML.
Above all, internal dynamics within the NC pose a major threat to the coalition. The decision to form an alliance with the UML was made without prior discussions in the party; it was largely driven by Deuba and his spouse, Arzu Rana Deuba, who currently serves as the Minister for Foreign Affairs. As a result, many senior NC leaders do not fully own the decision, and two distinct camps have emerged within the party. Leaders such as Purna Bahadur Khadka, NP Saud and Prakash Sharan Mahat favored continuing the coalition with the Maoists and would prefer forming a new government led by the NC. Just a few days ago, Khadka said, “I have told Prime Minister Oli to mend ways and improve the government’s performance.”
Meanwhile, leaders like Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma are positioning themselves as populist figures aspiring to lead the party. Rather than offering unconditional support to the coalition, they view national issues through the lens of their personal political ambitions. For example, they have demanded that the government address the teachers’ demands, even though fulfilling them may not be feasible. At a public event this week, Thapa warned that the party would leave the government if it had to compromise on fundamental party principles.
Furthermore, Koirala and Thapa—both aspiring to become party president and future prime ministers—are working to prevent Deuba from becoming prime minister again. They fear that Deuba could use state power during the party leadership selection process to favor his loyalists. They believe that if the current coalition collapses, it would weaken Deuba’s chances of returning as prime minister. For some time, efforts have been underway to change the NC parliamentary party leader, but Koirala and Thapa themselves are not aligned, viewing each other as competitors for the party presidency—something that strategically benefits Deuba. In addition, there is speculation that some NC leaders are under pressure from India to break the alliance with the UML.
Adding to the complexity, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has reportedly conveyed to senior NC leaders that he is ready to support Deuba as prime minister until the next election, gradually winning over a section of the NC leadership. Deuba’s phone call to Dahal before his departure for Thailand also raised eyebrows within the UML. Previously, Deuba had publicly emphasized that the NC should lead the government, given its emergence as the largest party in the 2022 elections. However, Dahal had refused to support the NC’s claim and instead aligned with the UML to form the government.
Within the NC, there is growing criticism that the coalition between the two largest parties has failed to deliver on its promises. For example, although the two parties had agreed to initiate the process of amending the constitution, they have yet to take any steps. Senior NC leaders say that Prime Minister Oli’s failure to address the country’s pressing issues is fueling public frustration, which has tarnished the party’s image. One NC leader remarked, “We do not feel comfortable staying on in the government with the UML.”
Despite repeated assurances from Deuba, UML and Oli remain uncertain about the NC’s continued support. UML leaders say external forces are actively working to destabilize the government, and at some point, the NC might withdraw its support and form a new alliance with the Maoists, sidelining the UML. This week, Oli also stated that he would not compromise on every issue just to remain in power.
