The US, under the Donald Trump administration, is steadily adopting a more aggressive stance toward China—an approach that is likely to reshape the foreign policy landscape for small South Asian countries like Nepal. Washington’s hardening posture is evident across multiple fronts: trade, technology, education and military strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
A major flashpoint has been trade. The Trump administration imposed a steep 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods—though currently paused—with expectations that the tariff war will escalate further. Simultaneously, the US State Department announced plans to revoke visas for Chinese students, especially those linked to the Chinese Communist Party or studying sensitive technologies, drawing sharp condemnation from Beijing.
The technological rivalry is already underway, but the conflict appears to be broadening. In a striking statement this week at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that the United States is prepared to take a confrontational approach toward Beijing, a move that has unsettled many Asian capitals.
“As our allies share the burden, we can increase our focus on the Indo-Pacific: our priority theater,” Hegseth said. Emphasizing that the futures of the US and its Indo-Pacific allies are “bound together,” he noted that America's own security and prosperity are linked to those of its allies. “We share your vision of peace and stability, of prosperity and security, and we are here to stay,” he added.
Hegseth outlined a vision for the Indo-Pacific based on mutual interests, sovereignty and commerce—not conflict. “On this sure foundation of mutual interests and common sense, we will build and strengthen our defense partnerships to preserve peace and increase prosperity,” he stated.
Yet, he made it clear that the US will resist any attempt by China to assert dominance. “We do not seek conflict with Communist China, but we will not be pushed out of this critical region, and we will not let our allies and partners be subordinated or intimidated.” These remarks come at a time when US allies in South Asia are already facing economic strain due to the US-led trade war. The pressure is particularly acute for countries like Nepal, which have a limited maneuvering room in great-power rivalries.
Hegseth also raised alarm over China’s preparations to use force for the “unification” of Taiwan—a move he warned could trigger a global crisis. “There’s no reason to sugarcoat it: the threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent,” he said, stressing that while China’s exact intentions remain uncertain, the US and its allies must prepare with “urgency and vigilance.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry (FM) stated on Sunday that Hegseth ignored the calls of regional countries for peace and development, promoted a Cold War mentality of bloc confrontation, smeared and attacked China, and exaggerated the "China threat theory"—remarks that were full of provocation. In fact, the US is the world's true hegemonic power and the biggest factor undermining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, China said. In order to maintain its hegemony and advance the so-called "Indo-Pacific Strategy," the US has deployed offensive weapons in the South China Sea, stoked tensions, and created instability—turning the region into a "powder keg" and arousing deep concern among regional countries, said China’s FM.
A military conflict over Taiwan would place enormous pressure on countries like Nepal to take sides—much like the diplomatic tightrope it walked during the Russia-Ukraine war. While Nepal officially supports the one-China policy, joint statements in recent years have gone further, explicitly stating that “Nepal opposes Taiwan independence.”
Foreign policy experts warn that such language could box Nepal into supporting a future Chinese military action, compromising its neutrality. Further reinforcing this strategic posture, US Air Force Secretary Troy Meink told graduating cadets this week that the Indo-Pacific will define the military challenges of their generation. “The Indo-Pacific will be your generation’s fight, and you will deliver the most lethal force this nation has ever seen—or we will not succeed,” Meink said. He warned that the strategic competition with China is wide-ranging and unpredictable, adding, “There will be no sanctuaries.”
While the Trump administration has significantly cut development aid to countries like Nepal, it has signaled an intention to deepen defense cooperation in the region. Given Nepal’s strategic location between China and India, observers believe the US is likely to step up military engagement with Kathmandu in the coming years, further complicating Nepal’s delicate geopolitical balancing act.
