Disaster response, coalition dynamics, and constitutional debates

Authorities are still investigating the cause of a sudden flash flood along the Nepal-China border that caused extensive damage. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority have ruled out rainfall as the cause, suggesting instead that a glacial lake outburst flood in Tibet may be responsible. At least 10 people have died, with several others still missing. The flood swept away the Nepal-China Friendship Bridge, a critical link between the two countries, prompting the Nepali government to seek Chinese assistance for reconstruction. While bilateral trade may face temporary disruptions, officials expect no major supply shortages. With the monsoon season ongoing, authorities remain on high alert for further floods and landslides, and movement has been restricted in some areas due to blocked highways.

In political developments, the meeting of the Nepali Congress’s Central Working Committee (CWC) is underway after a nine-month hiatus. Leaders discussed the party’s general convention, intra-party democracy, and government performance. While some leaders expressed dissatisfaction, there was no opposition to the current coalition, a major relief for Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. The NC also took disciplinary action against several leaders accused of undermining the party’s official candidates in the 2022 elections, a move criticized by supporters of senior leader Shekhar Koirala as a violation of party statute. Meanwhile, the CWC is expected to finalize a date for the party’s general convention, though President Sher Bahadur Deuba opposes holding it immediately.

Meanwhile, the CPN-UML is preparing for a statute convention to revise policies rather than leadership. Former President Bidhya Devi Bhandari’s return to active politics has shifted internal dynamics, with early signs pointing toward reconciliation between her and Oli. However, her planned post-monsoon tours could stir unease within the party, particularly regarding ongoing debates over age and term limits. The NC has raised objections to Bhandari’s political re-entry, with Deuba arguing that former heads of state should refrain from partisan politics.

Meanwhile, the Nagarik Unmukti Party’s withdrawal of support from the NC-UML coalition is unlikely to threaten the government’s majority, though legal experts are divided on whether Prime Minister Oli must seek a fresh vote of confidence. 

On constitutional matters, little progress has been made since the NC and UML agreed over a year ago to initiate amendments. The NC has now formed a committee to identify necessary changes, though experts argue that amendments should follow a review of the constitution’s implementation, a step yet to be taken. Meanwhile, rumors of a UML-Maoist merger resurfaced, prompting the Maoist to deny any such plans. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal acknowledged talks with smaller communist parties but clarified that no discussions with UML have taken place.

A recent Supreme Court ruling validating 53 constitutional appointments without parliamentary hearings has drawn criticism for undermining constitutionalism. While the UML supports the decision, other parties, including the NC and Maoists, have objected, reigniting calls for a dedicated constitutional court. 

A parliamentary committee has been formed to investigate irregularities in amending the Federal Civil Service Bill’s cooling-off provision, with a report expected within 21 days.

On the economic front, Nepal’s economy remains sluggish despite declining inflation, with remittances being the sole bright spot. Merchandise exports surged by 77.8 percent in the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024-25, driven by a 112.6 percent increase in trade with India. Attention now turns to the upcoming monetary policy, with Governor Bishwo Poudel under pressure to deliver solutions.

In other news, former King Gyanendra Shah celebrated his 80th birthday privately amid renewed but waning pro-monarchy sentiment. Sources indicate his frustration with Rastriya Prajatantra Party Chairperson Rajendra Lingden’s leadership.