Fresh polls or House restoration: Major parties still undecided

Following a month of fear driven by GenZ protests, major political parties, primarily the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, are holding crucial meetings to address issues such as leadership change, elections, and their stance on the Sept 8–9 demonstrations. The main agenda for both parties is leadership transition.

On Oct 14, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba named Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka as acting party president. He also announced that he will not contest for the presidency in the upcoming general convention. For now, the leadership issue within the NC remains on hold, with growing speculation over who will succeed Deuba. Around 53 percent of the party’s general convention representatives have submitted a memo to acting president Khadka demanding a special general convention. As per the party statute, a special convention must be called if 40 percent of representatives make such a demand. Deuba has already instructed party leaders to convene the convention as soon as possible.

Within the UML, KP Sharma Oli said in the party’s central committee meeting on Oct 15 that he is ready to relinquish leadership if the party’s central committee or general convention decides so. He, however, urged leaders not to pressure him to resign through social media.. Oli maintained that he has done nothing wrong and therefore sees no reason to give up power. Before the GenZ protests, Oli had stated that he would either remain party chair or retire altogether, refusing to serve as the party’s “second man.” The UML plans to hold its convention in the second week of December.

In the CPN (Maoist Center), Pushpa Kamal Dahal has taken a strategic step by converting the party’s central committee into a general convention organizing committee, naming himself its convener. Dahal is now forming GenZ wings within the party that support the continuation of his leadership. Publicly, Dahal has stated that he does not intend to retire from active politics.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is expected to retain Rabi Lamichhane as party chairman. However, the party is seeking a popular face to assume a more active leadership role, as Lamichhane’s status remains uncertain. Discussions are reportedly underway with Kul Man Ghising, the current Minister of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, to become the party’s deputy chief.

One thing is clear: in the coming months, major political parties will remain occupied with conventions and leadership transitions.

Alongside internal matters, parties are clarifying their positions on the March 5 elections. The UML is emphasizing the restoration of Parliament instead of fresh polls, arguing that the current government is unconstitutional and that a free and fair election is not possible under present circumstances. Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire has been consulting with political parties to solicit their views on parliamentary restoration. In a document presented to the UML’s central committee, Oli proposed launching street protests to press for the revival of Parliament. UML leaders are hopeful about restoration, partly because several senior Supreme Court justices have past affiliations with UML and NC. However, they fear a split among the judges, which could result in a fractured verdict.

There are also doubts over whether parties could manage GenZ protesters if Parliament is revived, since its dissolution was one of the major demands of Prime Minister Sushila Karki when she assumed office. Observers warn that restoring Parliament could lead to another round of political conflict.

At this juncture, the NC’s position remains crucial. For now, it appears the party is keeping both options of Parliament restoration and fresh elections open. The NC has said it is ready for elections, but argues that the government has failed to create a conducive environment. Party leaders claim they continue to receive threats and intimidation from some protesters, while the government has failed to control such activities. NC leaders also assert that, as in the past, they will not be swayed by Oli on national matters. Much will depend on how intra-party dynamics unfold within the party, as senior leaders may struggle to form a unified position in Deuba’s absence.

The Maoist Center was the first to declare that elections are the only way out of the current crisis. The party believes it could gain strength in a new parliament, as NC and UML were the main targets of the GenZ protests. The Maoists were also the first to acknowledge the GenZ movement.

Meanwhile, second-tier leaders of major communist parties are exploring the possibility of left unity. They argue that UML, the Maoists, and smaller communist factions should at least form an electoral alliance if full party unification is not feasible. However, Oli remains central to this process. On Oct 15, Dahal publicly said that left unity could be possible if Oli steps down. Some UML leaders believe unification might happen if former President Bidya Devi Bhandari returns to the party and assumes leadership.

So far, the major political parties have not held a joint meeting to find common ground on elections. Such a meeting could be pivotal in shaping a collective position. The election is still five months away, and if consensus is reached between the government and major parties, polls could be held within three months. Although President Ramchandra Paudel convened the first round of talks between the government and political parties last week, substantive negotiations have yet to begin.

Prime Minister Karki remains hesitant to invite party leaders to Baluwatar, fearing GenZ backlash. There are deep divisions between the government and political parties over how to interpret the Sept 8–9 protests. The government focuses on the Sept 8 incident, when 21 youths were killed in police firing, and is reportedly preparing to arrest then Prime Minister Oli and then Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak for their alleged roles. The parties, however, insist that those responsible for the arson and vandalism of Sept 9 must also be held accountable to ensure a conducive electoral environment. The Home Ministry’s directive to police not to arrest those responsible for the arson has heightened tensions between the government and parties.

While the government views the GenZ protests as a revolution, political parties do not. They acknowledge the legitimacy of some GenZ demands but reject the idea of it being a people’s uprising. The UML and Maoist Center suspect external involvement, with Oli being more vocal about it. Recently, Dahal hinted at a “geopolitical factor” behind the protests, while Oli, in his party document claimed the incident was “a continuation of the so-called color revolutions that various powerful nations have carried out since the Cold War … to undermine the country’s sovereignty, democracy, and constitution.”

Whether elections will take place remains uncertain. 

An NC leader said, “The ball is in the government’s court. If it creates a conducive environment, the parties cannot refuse elections.” After the Tihar festival, the Supreme Court will begin hearings on the petitions against Parliament’s dissolution. At the same time, various political parties and groups are preparing for street demonstrations with their own demands.

A UML leader remarked, “We are not sure whether the government will take a confrontational approach or choose reconciliation.” 

 

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Karki is under pressure from President Paudel to engage with political parties and create an environment for elections. Earlier, Karki rejected Paudel's suggestion to include party representatives in the cabinet, opting instead for a party-less government. A source close to the President said Karki was appointed the prime minister with a single, specific mandate of holding elections. “She should focus solely on that; otherwise, problems may arise,” the source warned.