Uncertainty over the March 5 national elections looms large, as political parties remain unprepared. According to Prime Minister Sushila Karki, around 65 percent of election-related preparations have been completed. The government is also preparing a comprehensive security plan for the polls. However, concerns persist over whether Nepal Police can effectively maintain security, given its low morale and shortage of arms and ammunition. Defense analysts have ruled out deploying the Nepali Army on the frontline.
Meanwhile, the CPN-UML has taken to the streets in protest against the Karki-led government. The party organized demonstrations across local levels this week and has planned a series of mass protests in Kathmandu. It has refused to participate in elections conducted by the current government, calling it unconstitutional. The UML’s roadmap centers on the restoration of parliament, the formation of an all-party government, and the eventual conduct of early elections.
In contrast, the Nepali Congress remains without a clear and firm position, while the CPN (Maoist Centre) has expressed readiness to go to the polls. The Nepali Army, for its part, has already communicated to all stakeholders that it has no intention of taking over power, warning that such a move would only worsen the country’s political instability.
In the coming days, the focus will be on Nepal’s evolving political roadmap. Possible scenarios include a postponement of elections to April or May while allowing the Karki government to continue, or the formation of a consensus government among major political forces, followed by a new election announcement. Rumors have also surfaced about the possibility of a Chief Justice-led caretaker cabinet, similar to that of the 2013 second Constituent Assembly elections.
Adding to the uncertainty, President Ramchandra Paudel’s next move remains unclear. He had appointed Prime Minister Karki with the mandate to hold elections within six months. However, tensions between the two have reportedly grown after Karki dismissed the President’s proposal to include political party representatives in the cabinet. The President is also said to be dissatisfied with the lack of dialogue between the Prime Minister and political parties, a key prerequisite for holding credible elections.
However, the Election Commission (EC) has been active in engaging political parties to create a conducive environment for the polls. The EC is currently in consultations to finalize the election code of conduct.
Interestingly, not only traditional parties but even new political groups have expressed reluctance to hold elections on March 5, citing inadequate preparation time. Some representatives of the GenZ movement, including Sudan Gurung, have warned that they will not accept elections unless their demands are addressed first. Political observers estimate that it could take at least a year to manage the ongoing transition.
Security tensions also remain high. The Nepal Police has arrested around 500 people across the country for their alleged involvement in arson and vandalism during the Sept 8–9 protests. Critics, however, argue that the protesters should not be criminalized, as the demonstrations were a form of revolt. Earlier, Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal’s directive not to arrest protesters had sparked opposition from Nepal Police’s top brass. Now, Aryal finds himself under fire from both GenZ protestors and political parties.
Within the Nepali Congress, internal disputes over its upcoming general convention remain unresolved. There are growing fears that the party could split if it fails to settle the issue soon. The party has also begun collecting signatures from its lawmakers, a move interpreted as preparation to push for parliament restoration.
Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, now leading the Nepali Communist Party, has emphasized his readiness for elections but remains open to parliament restoration. He has succeeded in bringing 12 fringe communist parties under his fold and has once again become a vocal critic of KP Sharma Oli. In a related development, Bhim Rawal, who had left UML a few years ago, has joined Dahal’s NCP.
The number of political parties registered with the Election Commission has now exceeded 125, with around two dozen new applications under review. Following the GenZ protests, which toppled major political parties from power, a new wave of actors—including businesspeople, independent politicians, celebrities, and others—have shown interest in joining politics. Since the March 5 election announcement, the EC has received 21 new party registration applications.
For comparison, in the 2022 elections, 116 political parties were registered with the commission, though only 87 participated. Many of the new parties believe they can attract public support amid widespread disillusionment with mainstream political forces that have dominated power since 1990.
In other developments, President Paudel has removed Madhesh Province Head Sumitra Subedi and appointed Surendra Labh in her place. Meanwhile, Dan Bahadur Karki has taken charge as Inspector General of Nepal Police, succeeding Chandra Kuber Khapung. The new IGP faces the formidable challenge of boosting police morale and ensuring that the force can provide foolproof election security.
Controversial businessman Durga Prasai is reportedly planning street protests demanding the restoration of the monarchy. The government, however, is considering stopping the demonstrations, arguing they could further destabilize the fragile security environment. Home Minister Aryal has already held preliminary talks with Prasai, who has presented a 27-point list of demands, several of which are considered unrealistic and unconstitutional.
In another political development, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) Chairman Rajendra Lingden and Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa held talks this week to explore party unification. In the aftermath of the GenZ movement, polarization among royalist forces is intensifying, with discussions underway on whether to contest the elections or push for a broader movement.
Additionally, Cabinet Minister Kul Man Ghising has registered a new political party under the leadership of former energy secretary Anup Kumar Upadhyay. However, Home Minister Aryal has said he will not allow Ghising to form a new party. Ghising has faced criticism within the cabinet for his political involvement, with colleagues arguing that since he joined the government to facilitate elections within six months, his engagement in party politics is inappropriate.
