China is recalibrating its Nepal policy in the aftermath of the GenZ protests that caught Beijing off guard. The demonstrations and widespread arson—unprecedented in scale—forced several countries, including China, to urgently evacuate their officials and citizens from Nepal.
Since the protests, Nepal-China relations have noticeably slowed. While other major countries such as India, the US, Japan, and members of the European Union have already resumed full engagement with the new government at multiple levels, interaction between Nepal and China has remained limited.
In the early days of the unrest, Beijing was particularly concerned about its security interests in Nepal. The fall of the KP Sharma Oli-led government was a troubling development for China. Until the Sept 8–9 protests, bilateral ties were progressing steadily. Just beforehand, China had invited Oli to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, where Nepal is a dialogue partner. Oli met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines, took part in China’s Victory Day parade, and earlier had signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement during an official visit, an outcome that had energized Beijing’s engagement with Kathmandu. China was also preparing a five-year cooperation plan with Nepal and expanding support in agriculture, health, and other sectors. Its engagement with Nepali political parties, including the Nepali Congress, was also deepening.
The GenZ movement, however, appears to have triggered new anxieties in Beijing. Media reports alleging the involvement of Tibetan Original Blood (TOB) raised concerns about external influence. Some left-leaning political leaders further fueled this by suggesting geopolitical motives behind the protests. Additional reports that the government was considering appointing youth leaders allegedly close to the Dalai Lama heightened Beijing’s unease.
Compounding these tensions, the Sushila Karki-led transitional government decided to recall Nepal’s Ambassador to China, Krishna Prasad Oli, who is close to the dismissed prime minister Oli. It did not, however, recall the Ambassador to India, Shankar Sharma. China’s displeasure was evident: notably, the Chinese premier did not send a congratulatory message to Prime Minister Karki, an unprecedented break from diplomatic tradition.
Amid this uncertainty, China moved quickly to protect what it views as its security interests. Ambassador Chen Song raised concerns with top Nepali officials, including Prime Minister Karki and senior officials at the Foreign Ministry. They assured Beijing that the new government remains fully committed to the One-China policy, as previous governments had been.
Chinese officials were encouraged by support from Nepali political leaders, the public, and sections of the media who echoed China’s concerns. In a recent meeting with journalists, Ambassador Chen Song said: “The current government’s commitment to the One-China principle is not less than that of the previous government.”
With these assurances, Beijing’s immediate worries appear to have eased, though several Chinese delegations have since arrived in Nepal to assess the situation firsthand.
Regarding the GenZ movement and upcoming elections, Ambassador Chen has conveyed to Nepali leaders that China will not interfere in domestic political affairs and respects decisions made by the Nepali people. At the same time, Beijing has pledged support for Nepal’s reconstruction and electoral processes.
However, China does not appear optimistic about achieving tangible progress under the interim government, particularly on BRI-related initiatives. Although China continues to work on BRI projects from its side, meaningful progress remains unlikely. Many of the 10 selected projects are seen as unproductive, shaped largely by the political interests of major parties. Still, China’s growing engagement in Nepal’s health and education sectors is expected to continue.
The GenZ protests have also affected tourism cooperation. China had declared 2025 as Nepal Visit Year, but Chinese tourist numbers have sharply declined. Before the protests, the two countries were deepening collaboration on tourism promotion, but the political upheaval has significantly disrupted momentum, and officials expect a further drop in Chinese arrivals in the coming months.
For now, China’s approach appears to be maintaining a working relationship with the Karki administration, prioritising the protection of its core interests while keeping expectations low on broader bilateral progress.
