The upcoming House of Representatives election on March 5 in Kathmandu Constituency Number 4 is more than a contest for a single seat, it is a litmus test between long-entrenched political forces and an emerging wave of change. With high-profile incumbent Gagan Thapa shifting to Sarlahi-4 and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) fielding a strong candidate, Pukar Bam, the electoral landscape has been fundamentally reshaped.
A closer look at the 2022 election results reveals a striking trend. At the time, RSP did not field a candidate under the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, yet it still secured 9,412 votes under proportional representation (PR). This signaled a substantial base of voters yearning for change.
In comparison, the Nepali Congress (NC) secured 21,302 direct votes but only 11,808 PR votes, suggesting that roughly 9,494 votes were driven more by Thapa’s personal appeal than by party loyalty. Similarly, CPN-UML received 13,855 direct votes but only 10,560 PR votes. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) also demonstrated a notable presence, earning 6,881 PR votes despite limited direct support.
These figures suggest that with Thapa out of the race, a large share of these “floating” votes could pivot toward RSP’s Bam. For RSP, beginning from a baseline of nearly 10,000 votes without a direct candidate in the last election, Bam’s organized campaign and growing personal credibility create a realistic path to victory.
Congress candidate Sachin Timalsina, by contrast, is a fresh face, and it appears unlikely that Thapa’s personal legacy will seamlessly transfer to him.
CPN-UML’s Rajan Bhattarai is contesting from Kathmandu-4 for the third time. Although he secured 13,855 votes in the last election, his challenge has grown more difficult. With shifting urban sentiment and the rise of GenZ voters, even UML’s traditional core base of around 10,000 votes no longer appears fully secure.
Bam’s candidacy stands out for several compelling reasons. Known for his youth and consistent activism, particularly through civic movements such as ‘Enough is Enough’, Bam is widely viewed by politically conscious voters in Kathmandu as a “doer” who understands grassroots concerns. He also benefits from a strong organizational base, with RSP having secured 9,412 proportional representation votes in the 2022 election despite not fielding a direct candidate.
In the absence of Thapa, an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 swing voters from the Congress camp could gravitate toward Bam, especially as many Congress loyalists remain dissatisfied with Thapa’s decision to leave Kathmandu-4 and hand the candidacy to a new face despite internal competition. There is also speculation that the Sher Bahadur Deuba camp may not fully back Timalsina due to his close association with Thapa.
Moreover, Bam’s appeal extends strongly to new voters: of the 76,141 registered voters in the constituency, a significant share belongs to the younger generation, an electorate increasingly inclined to move beyond traditional “pocket-vote” politics and embrace new leadership.
“I have always stood on the front lines for good governance, accountability, and democracy,” Timalsena says. “I am a voice raised from the streets, and it is from those very streets that I gained the conviction that change is possible. The transformations we have witnessed were born from the power of the people in the streets. My resolve now is to institutionalize that change within Parliament, bringing the energy of the youth, the expectations of the public, and an unwavering faith in democracy to the legislative level. This is not a solitary journey; it belongs to all of us. The voice of the street must reach the halls of Parliament, and we will be the ones to take it there.”
“The upcoming election is not a mere ordinary competition,” UML’s Bhattarai writes on Facebook. “It is a clear choice between validating murder, violence, arson, and anarchy, or choosing peace, the rule of law, and the supremacy of the Constitution. This is a decisive trial between right and wrong, the civilized and the uncivilized, and between a character of integrity and one of corruption.”
Voters in Kathmandu Metropolitan wards 1, 7, 8, and 30, as well as 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 of Budhanilkantha, are historically known for exercising discretionary voting behavior. With an estimated turnout of around 50,000, the winning threshold is likely to fall between 16,000 and 18,000 votes.
If Bam retains RSP’s previous PR votes and captures even 30 percent of the disgruntled or new voters from the NC and UML blocs, he could comfortably cross the 18,000 mark.
In the absence of Thapa, Kathmandu-4 voters now face a clear choice: opt for a transferred legacy or embrace new leadership. Between Bhattarai’s third attempt and Timalsina’s struggle to defend a borrowed fortress, Bam’s Ghanti (RSP symbol) is ringing a message of change through the streets of Kathmandu. If voters prioritize track records and fresh perspectives over tradition, March 5 may not repeat history, it may rewrite it.
