With just 20 days remaining before the election, a powerful anti-incumbency wave is sweeping across Nepal’s political landscape, placing senior leaders from all major parties under unusual pressure. From long-established figures to leaders of relatively newer parties, few appear insulated from growing voter dissatisfaction.
A leader close to CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli recently acknowledged the changing mood, remarking, “This is the first time Oli is truly contesting an election.” The comment reflects a striking shift in electoral dynamics.
In past elections, established leaders relied heavily on party networks and traditional voter loyalties. This time, however, even prominent figures are engaged in intensive door-to-door campaigns, signaling that electoral victories can no longer be taken for granted.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, coordinator of the Nepal Communist Party and former chair of the CPN (Maoist Center), is also facing the heat. In recent public remarks, Dahal suggested that “external forces” are backing emerging political actors, a statement widely interpreted as a reference to the growing popularity of Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah and other non-traditional figures. Dahal also argued that the “scenario on social media” differs from the “reality on the ground,” implying that digital enthusiasm may not necessarily convert into votes.
Analysts point to the rapid expansion of internet access and social media platforms as a key factor driving the current anti-incumbency sentiment. Platforms such as TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube have become central arenas for political debate, criticism, and mobilization.
Studies conducted in various democracies suggest that increased internet penetration can weaken trust in traditional political parties and institutions. In Nepal, social media has amplified scrutiny of incumbent leaders and provided space for alternative voices. The digital sphere has also facilitated the rise of populist and anti-establishment narratives, eroding the dominance of established political actors over public discourse.
Beyond digital influence, long-standing governance challenges appear to be fueling public frustration. Major political parties have alternated in power for decades, yet many structural issues—ranging from unemployment and corruption to weak public service delivery and political instability—remain unresolved.
Voters are increasingly questioning senior leaders who have held the prime ministerial office multiple times. “If you have been in power repeatedly, why have our problems not been addressed?” has become a common refrain at campaign events, according to party insiders. This cumulative dissatisfaction suggests that the current wave is not merely cyclical but rooted in deeper structural grievances.
Nepal’s electoral contests were traditionally shaped by competition among four principal forces: Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, the Maoists, and Madhes-based parties. However, the rise of new political forces and independent candidates has disrupted this familiar pattern.
While these emerging actors may lack extensive nationwide party structures, they are capitalizing on voter frustration and presenting themselves as credible alternatives. Observers note that the anti-incumbency sentiment does not appear to favor any single opposition party; rather, it reflects a broader desire for new and “fresh” faces in politics.
Despite the prevailing mood, incumbent leaders remain hopeful that strong grassroots networks and organizational capacity will help them withstand the challenge. They argue that online narratives do not always translate into electoral outcomes and that traditional campaign mechanisms still hold influence.
Nevertheless, the atmosphere leading up to the polls suggests that this election is shaping up as more than a routine contest among parties. For many voters, it appears to be a referendum on the political establishment itself.
