Nepal is likely to witness a delayed monsoon this year. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology said that June 13 is a tentative date for the monsoon arrival in Nepal. Though the monsoon is late, it doesn’t mean that the consequences are low.
According to the department’s spokesperson, Bibhuti Pokharel, the developing El Nino is expected to weaken Nepal’s monsoon circulation. The monsoon was delayed in Nepal in 1972, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2009, 2016, 2019 and 2023.
The department’s seasonal outlook indicates that several regions across Nepal may receive below-average rainfall during June-September monsoon period. Parts of Lumbini, Madhes, Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali, and Sudurpashchim provinces have 55–65 percent probability of receiving below normal rainfall.
At the same time, temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the country. Higher than normal maximum and minimum temperature are forecasted in Koshi, Madhes, Lumbini, Gandaki, Bagmati, and Karnali provinces, increasing the risk of heat stress, particularly in the Tarai.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has also projected below-normal rainfall across much of Nepal, with western region likely to experience the largest deficits. Despite forecasts of below-average seasonal rainfall, risk of disasters remains high. According to Nepal’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Action Plan 2083, rising temperatures and changing weather patterns could trigger localized extreme rainfall events, flash floods, landslides, inundation, riverbank erosion and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
The report from the plan estimates that approximately 2,26,661 people from 51,868 households could be affected by monsoon-related disasters this year. The prediction for this year’s monsoon appears to be comparable to the monsoon of 2004, 2016, and 2022. It is projected that between 1,000 and 4,000 households may be directly impacted, which constitutes roughly 10 percent of the worst-case scenario.
The committee also approved revisions to the “Standards for Formation and Mobilization of Search and Rescue Teams, 2083,” strengthening operational readiness for emergency deployment. In addition, amendments were endorsed for several important disaster management frameworks and procedures, including the “Artificial Incident Exercise Operation Procedure, 2083,” the “Forecast-based Anticipatory Action National Framework, 2083,” and the “Grant Procedure for Strengthening, Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Disaster-Affected Private Housing, 2081.”
The warning comes as Nepal continues to rank among the countries highly vulnerable to climate impacts. According to the Climate Risk Index 2025 published by Germanwatch, climate-related disasters directly affect around 75,840 people every year.
Kathmandu identifies more than 8,000 households at risk
Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) authorities stepped up preparedness measures ahead of the rainy season and have identified 128 flood-prone locations and estimates that more than 8,000 households could be affected during the monsoon.
Ward 16 is expected to be the most vulnerable, with around 1,600 households at risk due to flooding from the Samakhushi and Bishnumati rivers. More than 1,200 households in Ward 26 and nearly 1,000 households each in Ward 3 and 4 are also considered highly vulnerable.
To support emergency response, KMC has designated 51 parks, 28 open spaces and 87 schools as temporary shelters and emergency facilities. The city has also intensified river cleaning and drainage maintenance operations, deploying around 30 workers daily to clear waste and obstructions from rivers, culverts, catch pits and drainage systems.
Government strengthens preparedness
The government has approved the ‘National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Action Plan 2083’, outlining coordinated measures to reduce casualties, infrastructure damage and disruptions to livelihoods. The government has also endorsed revisions to several disaster management frameworks, including standards for search and rescue team mobilization, anticipatory action mechanisms and post-disaster reconstruction procedures.
Across the country, 14,078 trained volunteers are available for deployment, including 12,674 Nepal Red Cross Society volunteers and 1,404 volunteers registered in the national Volunteer Management System.
Disaster management authorities currently have access to more than Rs 7.56bn in disaster funds at the federal, provincial and district levels, including resources available through the Prime Minister’s Natural Disaster Relief Fund.
Nepal’s history demonstrates the devastating consequences of monsoon disasters where every year, many lives are lost and many households are affected.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), between 2016 and 2025 Nepal recorded 2,358 flood incidents and 5,032 landslides. These disasters claimed 678 lives in floods and 1,483 lives in landslides, while hundreds more were injured or went missing.
Lessons learned from previous monsoons
Disaster management reviews have identified several priorities for reducing monsoon risks. Authorities emphasize stronger coordination among government agencies, the private sector, media and civil society organizations.
Recommendations include expanding the availability of drones, helicopters and rescue boats, establishing command centers immediately following forecasts of extreme rainfall, improving public awareness campaigns and maximizing the use of modern communication technologies.
The importance of delivering early warnings through mobile networks, schools, community organizations and local governments while combating misinformation during emergencies.
With the monsoon season approaching amid forecasts of delayed rains, warmer temperatures and continued climate uncertainty, authorities warn that preparedness at every level—from national agencies to local communities—will determine how effectively Nepal can reduce the human and economic toll of this year’s disaster season.
