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The geo-digital situation of Nepal is highly vulnerable as much as the geo-political situation is. Apart from a long diplomatic influence, Nepal is directly or indirectly under geo-tech influence at present. While the government banned TikTok a few weeks back, China has expressed displeasure over it suspecting that Nepal could be influenced due to geopolitical factors. The possibility of Nepal imposing curbs on other social media platforms cannot be ruled out.
Now, the crucial concern is—how can the country adopt ‘Tech Neutrality’ amid a long tech war or potential cyber battle between the two tech superpowers—China and the United States?

Considering geo-location, geo-political proximity, sensitive geo-digital situation and tech dependency on others, both foreign political predators and cyber terrorists are constantly threatening cybersecurity architecture in the country. Nepal must fortify digital security preparedness with a sense of tech cooperation to rationally focus on intelligence mechanisms—both threat intelligence and cyber intelligence.

The world is witnessing AI or high-tech warfare rather than traditional warfare, be it in Russia-Ukraine or Israel–Palestine conflict. A war that does not defend humanity and human civilization is a cold-hearted crime.

If the Israel-Palestine war is escalated for destabilizing the Middle East or shattering China-initiated Gulf unity, the outcome would be costlier than in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya.

Massive US funding on war in Ukraine and Israel could trigger divisions within alliances like the EU, apart from affecting the outcome of US election 2024 and impacting the Ukraine war. It would leave a stronger precedent on the Taiwan issue at a time when China is taking advantage of a waning US image for its global ambition. As the world is likely to be divided into two poles, every international conflict would ultimately end in Beijing-Washington negotiations, else slip into WW-III.  So, let’s invest in peace, not in war.

As China assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council and the Presidents of China and the US meet in San Francisco on the sidelines of APEC summit this month, the two superpowers are expected to take serious steps to bring the conflicting parties— Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine— into negotiating table for tangible outcomes.

As compliant partners and rational competitors, the two giants should work for the greater good of society, humankind and the universe, keeping in mind that they will be able to retain their prime positions only through decent leadership, equable and nimble rationality, amity and cooperation. 

Globalization and a corresponding drive toward neoliberalism had a role in shaping the global political order in the past. At present, the intricacy of ‘techno-geopolitics’ and ‘techno-nationalism’ is making a sway in digital, economic, social and democratic order thereby impelling a new global order.

‘Democracy’ is said to be in decline in many parts of the world, while its global state is ‘complex’, ‘fluid’ and ‘unequal’ in 2023 (Global State of Democracy Initiative). Considered to be a process rather than a “system” or any form of institution, democracy can come to a halt when it encounters critical threats from any actor— be it human or machine.

 “The human being ranks higher than machines and technology”, reads Article 12, Section 1 of the 1947 Constitution of Bremen, an entity of the German federal state, perhaps foreseeing the prospective supremacy of machines (AI) over humans. 

An Open Letter titled “Pause Giant AI Experiments” originally signed by a 1000-plus tech, social and AI leaders around the world on March 22, 2023 has garnered more than 33700 signatures, including that of this author. 

It reads, “Contemporary AI systems are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks, and we must ask ourselves: Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk the loss of control over our civilization? Such decisions must not be delegated to unelected tech leaders. Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks manageable…” 

Unlawful development and deployment of generative AI has heightened risks of weaponization of AI technology to the detriment of humanity and human civilizations. The extensive misuse of AI has been posing a serious threat to democracy and humanity through ‘deep-fakes’ or ‘scams’.

After a Covid-19 pandemic that continues to haunt humanity, the world is witnessing two major threats—the “tech threat” that is challenging the sovereignty of nations, posing crucial threats to democracy and impinging on personal sovereign dignity of individuals; and the “religious radicalism” that could foment civilizational clashes and lead to disastrous consequences like ethnic cleansing. These two threats can sweep human civilization by wreaking havoc around the world.

Civilization clashes—be it Hindu-Muslim conflicts or the Manipur violence in India, Islam-Christian tensions around the world after 9/11, Black-White racial clashes in the US, the Rohingya sweeping in Myanmar, ethnic conflicts in Africa or Middle-East or ethnic clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh, the  diplomatic fiasco between India and Canada that is deep-rooted to religious radicalism or the recent Hamas attack in Israel and the Israeli counter-attack that are fuelling Muslim-Jews clashes—all reflect domination of religion over religion, culture over culture, human over human, nation over nation, and civilization over civilization. These developments could permeate beyond national boundaries and end up challenging the existing global social, civilizational or democratic order. 

Transnational issues such as terrorism, war, crimes, financial issues, climate change, economic stability, energy and food security, intellectual property rights, cybersecurity, nuclear and AI threats, maritime security, poverty and pandemics are also causing chaos worldwide.  

The author is a geopolitical analyst. This article is part 2 of a three-part series

The world is witnessing an AI or a high-tech war rather than just a traditional warfare—be it Russia-Ukraine war or Israel–Palestine conflict, while the conflicting parties have been massively ‘weaponizing technology’ and also undermining basic humanitarian laws. 

If the Israel-Palestine war, unfortunately, escalated over Iran or the Arab World with a shrewd intention of destabilizing the Mideast or disintegrating China initiated Gulf unity, the outcome would be more disappointing or costlier than that in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, or Libya in the past.

The massive US funding on the war in Ukraine and Israel, and possibly in Taiwan, instead of rationally investing on peace prospects, could not only induce divisions within the EU, NATO and other alliances, but could also affect the outcome of US election 2024 and impact the Russia-Ukraine war as well. 

Subsequently, it would leave a stronger precedent on the Taiwan issue. China, meanwhile, is widely garnering sustenance by taking advantage of a gradually waning US image, for its global political march. Against this backdrop, the world is most likely to be divided into two poles such that sooner or later every international conflict would ultimately end on Beijing-Washington negotiations, else slip into WWIII. Inviting a war is nothing but just an irrational competition on who would be stupider. Investing in war cannot be a wise ‘strategy’; instead, it is an ‘absurdity’. States, as responsible actors, should take steps for peace and harmony, and win hearts, minds and spirits of their nationals for maintaining a socio-democratic order.

The world is also observing a new version of Cold War centered on ‘democracy’ vs ‘autocracy’ in the form of tech and AI, data colonialism, data harvesting, cyber warfare, tech propaganda, intelligence sharing and spy-tech diplomacy, space race, maritime aggression, diplomatic maneuvering, interference in the internal affairs of states and unfair (and unilateral) tariffs or sanctions inconsistent with international laws. Consequently, global disorder is more disordered today. 

The induced “distrust and polarization of democracies” and disinformation from big tech and social media have been constantly challenging techno-democratic order, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict—that is largely marshaled by tech weaponries—is constantly fuelling for global disorder, and the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to disunite the Arab World. The US, India and the UK as well as other influencing democracies such as Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea are going to polls in 2024, while the challenges to ‘electoral democracy’ following the risk of disinformation or the influence of AI and ethnic nationalism cannot be undermined.

In the past, the West undermined Russian tech, cyber and nuclear capabilities, while the consequence was that the US frequently witnessed vulnerability in its cyber security and is now facing grave challenges to democracy from within and outside. The West is not accepting China’s AI strength and diplomatic clout, including its four initiatives—BRI, GDI, GSI, GCI—while the consequence is that the world is being gradually divided into two poles seeking alternative global orders. The West is also not accepting India’s promising tech and Space strength. This disregard could end up making India an alternative power in the global stage in the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, all the three influencing powers—China, India and Russia—have had remarkable history cum civilization, grand legacy, abundance of resources, strong national power capability, great population, greater size, rapidly emerging economy, innovative technology and remarkable defense capability, which none of the reigning powers can undermine now. While China has been the strongest of the three due to its AI supremacy, strong defense capability, gamut of intelligence and wider clout on the global stage. India is logically stronger because of its national power capabilities, including “fertile population” or “demographic advantage”, followed by strategic ties with Russia, bulky economic undertakings with China and geostrategic alliance with the US. Russia has become much stronger due to its tactical nuclear capability followed by stronger bilateral and geostrategic ties with China, India and North Korea.

The author is a geopolitical analyst

This article is part 1 of a two-part series

With a conflict intensifying between Israel and Hamas after the recent Hamas attack, the Middle East, which was gradually heading toward unity and harmony, is plunging into a war, once again. Regardless of its root cause, the hostilities in the region can have a spillover effect, which can polarize the world. A conflict like this can also become a breeding ground for fresh rebellions, terrorists and criminal gangs.

No rational human being can support terrorism anywhere in the world. Talks and negotiations are a must to bring back normalcy in the region and beyond for the greater good of humanity and human civilization. War is never a solution. War begets more war and results in a lose-lose outcome. There is no alternative to peace and harmony. Thus, the international community in general and the parties to this conflict in particular should reconsider the “Framework for Peace in the Middle East”.

The author is a geostrategic thinker

The world is under two major threats now—“tech threat” that is challenging sovereignty of nations and impinging on personal sovereign dignity of individuals, and “Religious Radicalism” that could foment civilizational clashes and lead to ethnic cleansing.

A tech battle between China and the US, along with disinformation from big tech and social media have been challenging tech and democratic order. The US, India and the UK—the oldest democracy, largest democracy and the champion of parliamentary democracy—are going to polls in 2024 amid risk of disinformation or influence of AI and ethnic nationalism.

Civilizational clashes fueled by ethnic nationalism in different countries reflect domination of religion over religion, culture over culture, human over human and civilization over civilization. This can challenge social-civilizational or democratic order.

“Hate crimes” embedded in religious beliefs can have spillover effects and cause ethnic war, causing huge losses to civilization, if not handled with utmost rationality. 

The author is a geopolitical analyst 

The recent G7 foreign ministers’ meeting urged China to force Russia to end its war with Ukraine.  Neither China nor the US can handle the international crisis on its own. If China can play a role in ending this war, it can also play a role in the creation of a new global order not acceptable to the west.

Together, the US and China can play a role in tackling global crises, including the Russia-Ukraine war, using three measures—formation of ‘G2’ by adopting a 4Cs approach (consultation, communication, coordination and cooperation); G2 mediation between Russia and Ukraine for ending the conflict and leading the world and transformation of G7 into G10 by bringing China, India and Russia on board by securing Russia’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty. These measures reflecting a “new economic and political reality”can help create a new global order, apart from achieving ‘win-win results’ through fair competition.

The author is geopolitical analyst

India’s PM Narendra Modi, while addressing world leaders at the G20 meeting in New Delhi, frequently used the word ‘Bharat’ instead of ‘India’ and reiterated a 2,500-year history of his country in Sanskrit. 

The podium he was taking to welcome foreign delegates, too, was decked as ‘Bharat’, with a symbolic ‘Lotus’—Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s election symbol—displayed around the summit venue. The unprecedented branding of ‘Bharat’ along with ‘Hindu civilization’ could help set a nationalistic agenda for the ruling BJP in upcoming general elections. 

Latest developments like India’s emergence as a ‘Space power’, its soft tone at the recent BRICS summit, and successful execution of G20 Summit could result in a great strategic advantage to India to rise as a prominent power on the world stage. 

A moot question is: How will India balance ties with China, Russia, the US, and various multilateral associations, including QUAD, IPS and BRICS? 

The author is a geostrategic thinker