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Washington: Economic crises are rippling through the countries bordering Israel, raising the possibility of a chain reaction from the war with Hamas that further worsens the financial health and political stability of Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon and creates problems well beyond.

Each of the three countries is up against differing economic pressures that led the International Monetary Fund to warn in a September report that they could lose their "sociopolitical stability." That warning came shortly before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct 7, triggering a war that could easily cause economic chaos that President Joe Biden and the European Union would likely need to address.

The possible fallout is now starting to be recognized by world leaders and policy analysts. For a Biden administration committed to stopping the Israel-Hamas war from widening, the conflict could amplify the economic strains and possibly cause governments to collapse. If the chaos went unchecked, it could spread across a region that is vital for global oil supplies—with reverberations around the globe.

“The more unstable things are economically, the easier it is for bad actors in the region to stir the pot," said Christopher Swift, an international lawyer and former Treasury Department official. "The notion that you can divorce politics from economics is a little bit myopic, and naive. Politics, economics and security go together very closely.”

World Bank head Ajay Banga warned at a conference in Saudi Arabia this week that the war puts economic development at a “dangerous juncture.”

The financial situation is serious enough that Charles Michel, president of the European Council, met with the IMF last Thursday and told officials there that they needed to do more to support the Egyptian government, which he said is under pressure due to the possibility of migrants arriving from Hamas-controlled Gaza as well as people fleeing a civil war in Sudan.

“Let’s support Egypt," Michel told reporters afterward. “Egypt needs our support and we need to support Egypt.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi refuses to take in Palestinian refugees, fearing that Israel wants to force a permanent expulsion of Palestinians and nullify Palestinian demands for statehood. The Egyptian leader also said a mass exodus would risk bringing militants into the Sinai Peninsula.

Already, over a million people have been displaced within Gaza, and the threat of the war's escalation looms with clashes along the Lebanon-Israel border between the Israeli military and Hezbollah militants.

“To presume that there won’t be a movement of people is naïve and premature,” said Swift. “Any sudden blow to the el-Sissi regime from the outside, whether it’s an economic blow, or whether it’s the sudden migration of a lot of people out of Gaza into the Sinai could have destabilizing effects.”

Swift said that while el-Sissi’s regime is heavily dependent on US economic and military assistance, it's increasingly going to be popular opinion within Egypt that determines his actions, a lesson learned from the Arab Spring protests that brought down the Mubarak regime in 2011.

In April, the IMF concluded that Egypt's financing needs for the year were equal in size to 35 percent of its gross domestic product. On Oct 5, Moody’s downgraded Egyptian debt that was already at junk status. The downgrade came as past efforts have failed to help Egypt’s economy, which was saddled with about $160bn in debt as of the end of last year.

Mirette F. Mabrouk, director of the Middle East Institute’s Egypt Studies program, said, “Egypt is in the worst economic crisis I can remember in at least five decades” and that only complicates the current turmoil from the war.

“If you have this conflagration in Gaza, you need the rest of the region to be stable for everyone to take appropriate and correct action,” Mabrouk said. “You don’t need more instability in a region that is already quite unstable.”

Mabrouk said one of the most immediate signs of increasing distress is that Egypt’s central bank has in the past week imposed foreign currency restrictions on cards linked to local bank accounts.

One major potential setback for Egypt stemming from the latest Israel-Hamas War would be the loss of tourists seeking to explore the country's ancient pyramids and history. Tourism is one of Egypt's leading economic sectors, and along with foreign investment provides needed access to the rest of the global economy.

A representative from the Egyptian government did not respond to an Associated Press request for comment.

Nearby Jordan is struggling due to slower economic growth and less foreign investment, according to the IMF. Its debt outlook is healthier than Egypt's, but its unemployment rate is in the double digits, according to financial data provider FactSet.

The size of the Lebanese economy shrank by more than half from 2019 to 2021, according to the World Bank. Lebanon's currency, which since 1997 had been pegged to the US dollar at 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, now trades around 90,000 pounds to the dollar.

While many businesses have taken to charging in dollars, public employees who still get their wages in lira have seen their purchasing power crash, with many now relying on remittances from relatives abroad to stay afloat. International donors including the United States and Qatar have been subsidizing the salaries of Lebanese army soldiers.

The country’s leaders reached a tentative agreement with the IMF in April 2022 for a bailout package but they have not implemented most of the reforms required to finalize the deal. The IMF warned in a report earlier this year that without reforms, public debt in the small, crisis-ridden country could reach nearly 550 percent of GDP.

Before the latest Israel-Hamas war, some officials had pointed to Lebanon’s rebounding tourism industry as an economic lifeline. But since the conflict has threatened to envelop Lebanon—with regular small-scale clashes already taking place between militants from Hamas-allied Hezbollah and Israeli forces on the country’s southern border—foreign embassies have warned their citizens to leave and airlines have canceled flights to the country.

Paul Salem, president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that “if tensions spread to the Gulf, this conflict will have the potential to severely impact international markets and struggling economies and populations around the globe.”

AP

Bharatpur: The motorboat service in the Narayani River has come back to operation with an exit of monsoon. The motorboat operation along the river was temporarily suspended due to rising water levels caused by the monsoon rains. 

Monsoon rains tentatively forced the service closure for a complete three months from mid-June to mid-September. However, this year the closure extended due to a delayed monsoon, according to Narayani Motorboat Entrepreneurs Association chair Ashesh Malla. 

In recent times, the availability of motorboat services on the river has attracted a growing number of domestic tourists. Around 2,000 people visit the riverbanks daily to enjoy a motorboat ride and this number remains higher during the Dashain and Tihar festivals.

The motorboat service on the river was initiated in 2019 with just one motorboat. Currently, there are 32 registered large and small motorboat companies, with 19 already serving visitors.

The service offers various packages and is available from the Narayani Bridge to Majuwa Tapu Pokhara Bus Park, Majuwa Tapu Pokhara Bus Park to Radha Krishna Temple in Gaidakot, Majuwa Tapu to Parijat Park, and from the Narayani Bridge to Devghat. Large motorboats can accommodate 18 to 25 passengers at once, while small motorboats can carry up to 12 passengers for short distances. The service charges are Rs 250 per person for the short route and Rs 1,500 for the long route.

The Bharatpur Metropolitan City imposes a 15 percent tax on the revenue generated from this service.

Sharjah: Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) held a meeting with Angelica Schempp, Consul-General of Switzerland in Dubai, and discussed fostering collaboration in the clean and renewable energy, energy efficiency, and water sectors.

During the meeting, which took place at DEWA's head office, Al Tayer emphasised the shared commitment to advancing the global transition towards sustainable and clean energy solutions.

He added that this partnership will not only benefit the UAE and Switzerland but also contribute to the global effort to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Al Tayer highlighted DEWA's achievements, initiatives, and renewable and clean energy projects. One of DEWA's key projects is the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, the largest single-site solar park in the world with a planned capacity of 5,000 megawatts (MW) by 2030.

He highlighted the significance of innovation and digital transformation. He discussed the potential for collaboration in harnessing cutting-edge technologies to improve the efficiency and sustainability of energy and water systems.

The two sides discussed the potential for knowledge sharing and collaboration in developing and deploying clean and renewable energy sources. The exchange of expertise and technology will play a crucial role in achieving a cleaner and more sustainable energy landscape.

Schempp commended DEWA's efforts in developing renewable energy projects, thanking Al Tayer for the opportunity to discuss potential cooperation and strengthen bilateral relations. 

ANI

New Delhi: ​​​​​​​India successfully carried out Saturday the first of a series of key test flights after overcoming a technical glitch ahead of its planned mission to take astronauts into space by 2025, the space agency said.

The test involved launching a module to outer space and bringing it back to earth to test the spacecraft’s crew escape system, said the Indian Space Research Organization chief S. Somanath, and was being recovered after its touchdown in the Bay of Bengal.

The launch was delayed by 45 minutes in the morning because of weather conditions. The attempt was again deferred by more than an hour because of an issue with the engine, and the ground computer put the module's lift-off on hold, said Somanath.

The glitch caused by a monitoring anomaly in the system was rectified and the test was carried out successfully 75 minutes later from the Sriharikota satellite launching station in southern India, Somanath told reporters.

It would pave the way for other unmanned missions, including sending a robot into space next year.

In September, India successfully launched its first space mission to study the sun, less than two weeks after a successful uncrewed landing near the south pole region of the moon.

After a failed attempt to land on the moon in 2019, India in September joined the United States, the Soviet Union and China as only the fourth country to achieve the milestone.

The successful mission showcased India’s rising standing as a technology and space powerhouse and dovetails with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's desire to project an image of an ascendant country asserting its place among the global elite.

Signaling a roadmap for India’s future space ambitions, Modi earlier this week announced that India’s space agency will set up an Indian-crafted space station by 2035 and land an Indian astronaut on the moon by 2040.

Active since the 1960s, India has launched satellites for itself and other countries, and successfully put one in orbit around Mars in 2014. India is planning its first mission to the International Space Station next year in collaboration with the United States.

AP