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A few things are clear enough. Multiple Nepal Communist Party sources confirm that Prime Minister KP Oli has been desperately trying to mend his strained ties with the Indian establishment and the BJP leadership. Informal envoys have been deputed to New Delhi to explore ways to restore his credibility with the Indians. The Chinese were set on preserving the ruling party’s unity—even if it entailed requesting Oli to give up one of his two executive posts. Oli wasn’t prepared to do so. He instead split his party and sought India’s help to save his twin chairs. 

New Delhi was hesitant at Oli’s overtures. Indian political leaders and bureaucrats who had once closely worked with him had not forgotten the blockade-time ‘betrayal’. Back then, the communist prime minister had conveniently ditched his old allegiance with India and pushed measures to establish China as India’s counterweight. This popular nationalist stand helped him become prime minister for the second time. 

So the Indian babus were wary this time. But they also saw an opportunity. After the 2015-16 blockade, China had steadily gained ground in Kathmandu at India’s expense, and New Delhi had been scrambling for a response. India realized that so long as the NCP—with its budding fraternal ties with the Chinese Communist Party—remained intact, things would be hard for India. Also acutely aware of China’s reasons for backing NCP unity, India decided to play it cook with Oli’s party-split efforts. 

Oli could not have risked it all without India’s backing. One simple way to guess which foreign actor was involved in the NCP split, suggested a retired PMO official with vast experience of dealing with foreign actors, is to ask who benefitted most from it. “The modus operandi is classic India, which will again get to play in the unstable polity,” he said.  

The strongest ‘pro-China’ force now out of the picture, most coverage of Oli’s parliament dissolution in Indian media portrayed the move as a strategic victory for their country.

The contrasting Chinese reaction can be gauged by a Dec 25 Global Times op-ed. “The coordinative role played by China”—supposedly in bringing the NCP together and later to keep it intact—“should not be viewed as interference in Nepal's internal politics,” it said. The same op-ed chastised the Indian media which “often provoke China-Nepal relations, but this will not send big waves. Politicians in Nepal well understand the importance of cooperating with China.”

Bluster aside, China has definitely lost its trusted ‘permanent friend’ in Nepal. The Chinese had looked to cultivate such an all-weather friend in their bid to crimp India’s strategic space in Nepal, as a part of their new push against the Indians in South Asia. But with the NCP behemoth gone, Oli back in India’s corner, and Nepali Congress increasingly seen in Beijing as doing India’s bidding, China appears short of options. It’s now lobbying for the parliament’s reinstatement, including with President Bhandari. (Yes, the dragon’s started to bare its fangs.)  

Along with India, aging Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba is the other big winner of the communist split. With Oli’s help, Deuba will now look to worm his way back to the center of Nepali politics. In internal party deliberations following the NCP breakup, Deuba has stood vehemently against protesting Oli’s parliament dissolution. Perhaps he already has a tacit understanding with Oli to forge an electoral alliance and, in the most favorable case, even dreams of reclaiming the prime minister’s chair. The Supreme Court judgement, whichever way it goes, won’t much affect this calculus. Deuba has always enjoyed New Delhi’s blessings. The political comeback of this darling of the westerners will also please the Americans.

…and what have you done. Another year over. A new one just begun. 

Sang John Lennon in 1971. Still a classic at Christmas, this song takes on a new meaning this year. So what have we done? In a word—nothing. I should have been telling you about all the great Christmas markets, Christmas carol concerts and events going on around town. But I’m not. Because there aren’t any. Not just none in Kathmandu but pretty much none around the world.

Yes, there has been a couple of small markets, announcing themselves as Christmas ones, but the overall spirit is missing for me. No Summit Hotel, or larger Christmas markets taking place for obvious reasons. No Kathmandu Chorale concert, no gluhwein courtesy of the Germans, no Christmas mince pies courtesy of the British, no Christmas lunch up near Shivapuri with the Culture Studies Group, and no Kathmandu International Film Festival (KIMFF) except virtually. Oddly, KIMFF, always held in December, has been part of my Christmas celebrations for near on 18 years now. No, nothing happening, except a few hotels and restaurants hosting lunches and dinners with a Christmas theme.

I hope you have fun. The near and the dear ones. The old and the young. Continues Lennon.  Much of Europe has pretty much cancelled Christmas. The idea being keeping the old and young apart. Even within a family bubble, only so many people can gather in one household.  In Scotland, my mother is in my sister’s family bubble because she lives alone. But even she couldn’t visit for the two weeks prior to Christmas as my nephew is quarantining at home after returning from university. 

So what have we done? This year has been so hard on so many. We started it with optimism.  Visit Nepal 2020 would bring many tourists, benefitting those within the industry and many more indirectly. I visited Europe for the first time in more than 20 years—and it might be another 20 since those of us holding British passports have given over, from 1 January 2021, our right to work and visit Europe without the visa red-tape nonsense. #brexitmadness   

So that was January 2020. By February we were taking a closer look at China and Italy and keeping our global fingers crossed. Somewhere in March we entered a long, and very dark tunnel. With vaccines now being produced and distributed there may be a tiny light at the end of this tunnel. But we shouldn’t celebrate quite yet. This is going to take time.

The whole world is suffering from Covid-fatigue but here in Nepal it seems all caution has been thrown to the wind. The average person no longer fears this virus, nor appears to have any civic responsibility towards their neighbors, friends or even family. And, I said this a couple of months ago too, it’s not just the ones who earn their living on a daily basis who are taking risks. It’s those who, we would presume, have enough in the coffers to see them through these dark days. With plenty to spare. Greed at every level seems to win out every time. And here I am talking about the whole world, not just Nepal.  

Going back to Lennon’s song, like him, I wish you: A very merry Christmas. And a Happy New Year. Let’s hope it’s a good one. Without any fear.

The ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) leaders have sabotaged this country’s future again. The new political turmoil will inflict a big economic cost and hold economic development back. The government had set a target of graduating from the list of least developed countries in 2022, and becoming a mid-income country by 2030. Both goals have become unachievable. The economy that was already suffering due to the pandemic has been pulled into further uncertainty with the parliament’s dissolution. We no longer have a conducive environment to be a vibrant economy by achieving double-digit growth over the course of the next decade.

The government formed on the back of a two-thirds parliamentary majority has failed to deliver on its electoral promises. People voted for prosperity and development that was projected as a byproduct of political stability. Although the link between political stability and economic development is unclear, people voted in the general elections to achieve both: or more specifically, to achieve prosperity by the way of political stability. This process has been halted and Nepal will now struggle to achieve economic sustainability and development.

The country has been trying to become a moderately developed country by following the prescription of development partners without working out whether the prescription actually made sense in our context. Even far-left political parties in Nepal seem willing to implement the Washington Consensus. Yet the country has been unable to make much progress in utilizing available resources. It is often forgotten that development is achieved based on effective implementation of policies and programs and not what model a country adopts.

One of the projections, especially after the promulgation of new constitution in 2015, was that Nepal would also join the league of Asian countries that have been progressing regardless of their political frameworks. But it is worth asking: In which area has Nepal progressed in the three years since the formation of the Oli government? As 2020 comes to a close and the world starts inoculating itself against Covid-19, Nepal has entered a new and needless political battle. No one is sure if federalism, considered a means for inclusive economic development, can be sustained. The new constitution that lays out the foundation for federal administrative system has been repeatedly undermined by the major political parties as well as the government. Against this backdrop, its institutionalization is up in the air.

The fundamental question is: Can Nepal overcome this chaos to continue on the path of economic development over the next one decade? Recent political mess complicates this journey. Even if the process continues, it will be tall order to achieve the anticipated double-digit growth that would have helped Nepal be a mid-income country by 2030. Setting up new goals will take time and by then it may be too late. The interest of our neighbors could shift elsewhere and Nepal could be left behind in the region.

What can we do to help the economy recover from the pandemic’s impact and the political chaos? The least Nepal can do at this time is to let the bureaucracy work unhindered to take forward the country’s economic agendas. Yet that too is unlikely as our bureaucracy and state apparatus are thoroughly politicized.

When Nepal emerges from this chaos, the dynamics of economic development would have vastly evolved in the post-covid world. One could argue that there would still a government in place to carry forward economic agendas. But then this government would be consumed by petty politics and have no time for vital economic issues and delivery. This missing focus on economic development in turn will imperil the country’s future.

At 2 am on a cold January morning earlier this year, Prime Minister KP Oli woke abruptly in my fictional world drenched in sweat, heartbeat racing, and fists clenched. It wasn’t just that he was not well or that he had been briefed of a potentially deadly virus.

That morning, the prime minister was startled by a sudden realization of the two deadliest mistakes of his life. First, from some 50 years ago: Oli, then only a young firebrand communist, had led the Jhapa Revolt, beheading landowners. Second, three years ago on election-eve: Oli forged an electoral alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), merged the two parties and secured an unprecedented mandate.

That cold morning, the prime minister awoke to a premonition of how the two greatest errors of his life would collide. It unfolded 12 months later, on Sunday, when in defiance of comrades in his own party, he recommended dissolution of a democratically elected parliament (the President complied), and called fresh election, earning himself the moniker of an authoritarian.

From revolution-provocateur beheading landlords to authoritarian-provocateur debasing the constitution, Prime Minister Oli has exhibited through his life and politics what all of us Nepalis have become. For his courage in reflecting our collective cowardice, Prime Minister Oli is my pick for the person of the year.

The odds were always against Oli. He was a rare survivor of the Jhapa Revolt. Most others were summarily rounded up and executed in a forest. He spent 14 years in prison, often in solitary confinement, peddling poems he had written in return for a few favors. Beyond his idealistic youth, his achievements are a story of endurance built on the philosophy of political expediency where the end justifies the means.

This philosophy of political expediency was in display when he responded in a 10-page letter to the charges levelled against him by party’s co-chair. In it, he documents how Prachanda, the co-chair, himself defied the constitution by disrupting the elections when Prachanda’s daughter was losing (party workers tore the ballots during the count, the results were annulled, and a fresh election ordered, which she won). Political expediency required the prime minister to simply ignore such a blatant violation of an election—the core of democracy—simply because the partnership was important at the time. The end justified the means.

The greatest tragedy of Nepal’s democracy was that one party won such an overwhelming majority. A coalition government would have been better, and offered more political stability, in establishing the institutions necessary for Nepal’s young democracy. Oli had put aside many years of bitterness and criticism about the Maoists when he announced the electoral alliance and subsequent merger of the two parties. It was simply political expediency, for he knew, just as almost everyone guessed, the combined party would return with a resounding victory. The end justified the means.

When Prime Minister Oli first took office in 2015, he immediately proclaimed five other revolutionaries of the Jhapa Revolution as national martyrs. Every year, around February, Nepal Communist Party gathers to remember the martyrs of the Maoist uprising and the previous armed movements, like the Jhapa uprising. No one pauses to remember the victims of the conflict.

Almost 50 years after the beheading of landowners, the families of those victims are still waiting for justice and closure. Approximately 2,500 complaints of disappearance and 63,000 cases from the Maoist-era conflict are pending at the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

Today, the prime minister’s decision to dissolve parliament is being debated in terms of democratic principles. But can there really be a discussion about democratic principles when thousands of families whose loved ones were killed, tortured, kidnapped, and displaced are still waiting for the justice they were promised? Our constitution and political progress have been written in blood. We have a peace accord but are still at war with each other.

The tragedy of this political turmoil is not that a stable government has fallen. The tragedy is that we, ordinary Nepalis, have simply forgotten the victims who suffered the abuses of conflict. Parliament may fall, a new one may arise. But Nepali democracy is meaningless unless the blood that drips on our consciousness is cleaned—not by the State but by us, the people of Nepal.

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