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In the dynamic realm of Nepali politics, coalition governments have become commonplace rather than rare. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s current predicament, preparing for his fifth vote of confidence on 12 July 2024, highlights the intricate interplay of power dynamics, alliances and political strategies.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal initially secured 268 votes out of 270 MPs in the House of Representatives on 10 Jan 2023, with the backing of the CPN-UML, marking his second successful confidence vote since taking office. However, on 20 March 2023, he garnered support from 172 out of 262 MPs after switching allegiance to the Nepali Congress.

In his third confidence vote on 13 March 2024, Dahal received 157 votes out of 268 MPs present, following his return to the CPN-UML from the Nepali Congress camp. Most recently, on 20 May 2024, Dahal gained backing from 157 MPs out of 158, with the entire opposition absent. This vote took place in the 275-member House of Representatives, where one member abstained, and none voted against the motion.

Members of the main opposition Nepali Congress, the largest party in the lower house, did not participate in the voting due to ongoing protests within the House. His fifth vote of confidence on July 12 underscores the ongoing challenges and strategic maneuvers in Nepal’s evolving political landscape. It is anticipated that Dahal may receive no more than 63 votes in this fifth exercise of confidence since 26 March  2022.

A recurring saga

Since assuming office, PM Dahal has piloted through multiple votes of confidence, each a testament to the fragility of political alliances and the quest for stability in Nepal’s governance. His tenure began with a significant mandate, securing 268 out of 270 votes in the House of Representatives on 10 Jan 2023. Subsequent votes have showcased varying levels of support, reflective of the shifting sands of Nepali politics.

In the Parliament, the Nepali Congress holds 88 seats, CPN-UML has 79 seats and the Prime Minister’s CPN-MC, the third-largest party in the House, has 32 seats. Rastriya Swatantra Party with 21 members stands as the fourth largest party. Despite this, the Dahal government has fallen into a minority position after losing support from the largest party in the coalition. With a total of 275 seats in the House of Representatives, a majority requires 138 votes.

His fifth vote of confidence underscores the ongoing struggle to maintain a cohesive coalition amidst growing dissent and opposition calls for resignation. Despite calls from both the Congress and UML to step down and allow for a potential leadership transition, PM Dahal has opted to exercise his constitutional right to seek validation from the House.

Political opportunism

Political opportunism in Nepal’s context often revolves around the strategic maneuvering of parties and leaders to capitalize on emerging opportunities and alliances. PM Dahal’s tenure epitomizes this, as his ability to secure votes of confidence has relied heavily on navigating the complex web of coalition politics rather than outright majority support.

Prospects and challenges

Looking ahead, Nepal faces significant challenges in achieving political stability and effective governance. The reliance on coalition governments, while often necessary to accommodate diverse political interests, can hinder long-term policy implementation and governance continuity. PM Dahal’s tenure serves as a case study in managing these complexities, where each vote of confidence becomes not just a procedural exercise but a reflection of broader political dynamics and aspirations.

As Nepal prepares for yet another pivotal vote of confidence under PM Dahal’s leadership, the nation watches closely. The outcome will not only determine the immediate future of the government but also set the tone for Nepal’s ongoing quest for political stability and effective governance amidst a backdrop of coalition complexities and shifting alliances.

While coalition governments are a testament to Nepal’s vibrant democracy, they also highlight the challenges of political opportunism and the delicate balance of power that defines the country’s political landscape. As PM Dahal seeks to secure his mandate once again, the implications resonate beyond mere numbers, encapsulating the hopes and aspirations of a nation in search of sustainable governance.

Nepal’s political history has been turbulent, defined by seismic shifts and the transformative rise of the Maoist movement spearheaded by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Dahal. Emerging in the 1990s, the Maoist insurgency fused Marxist-Leninist ideology with a fervent call for socio-economic reform in one of the world’s poorest nations. Under Dahal’s leadership, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) launched a protracted guerrilla war aimed at toppling the monarchy and establishing a republic. This uprising, lasting over a decade, plunged Nepal into widespread violence and instability, fundamentally challenging the entrenched power structures of the monarchy and the established political order.

By the mid-2000s, amidst mounting national and international pressure, the Maoists engaged in peace negotiations with the government, culminating in the landmark Comprehensive Peace Accord of 2006. This agreement marked a pivotal moment, ending the armed conflict and opening the door for the Maoists to transition into mainstream politics. In 2008, Nepal abolished its centuries-old monarchy and embraced a federal democratic republic, with Dahal assuming the mantle as the country’s first Prime Minister under the new constitutional framework.

However, the journey from insurgency to governance proved arduous for the Maoist party, now rebranded as the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center). The transition was fraught with internal strife, ideological divisions, and the daunting task of delivering on promises made during the insurgency era. Despite initial hopes of ushering in profound social justice and economic prosperity, Dahal’s leadership faced criticism for perceived compromises and shortcomings.

The Maoist Center’s decline as a political powerhouse can be attributed to several factors. The party struggled to effectively address the socio-economic grievances that initially fueled its rebellion, leading to a gradual erosion of popular support. Internal power struggles and factionalism further undermined its organizational coherence and electoral prospects. Allegations of corruption and a perceived drift toward authoritarianism tarnished the party’s image, exacerbating its challenges on the political stage.

In recent years, the Maoist party, under Dahal’s continued leadership, has experienced diminishing electoral success. The 2017 parliamentary elections saw significant losses for the party, signaling a declining influence and support base among Nepali voters. This setback has been compounded by the emergence of new political dynamics and the rise of competing parties, relegating the Maoists from their once-dominant position in Nepal’s political landscape.

The trajectory of Nepal’s Maoist movement illustrates the intricate dynamics of revolutionary ideologies transitioning into the realm of governance. While the Maoists played a pivotal role in reshaping Nepal’s political fabric and dismantling the monarchy, their journey has been marred by internal discord, ideological challenges and the pragmatic realities of governance.

As Nepal continues its democratic evolution, the legacy of the Maoist movement remains intertwined with the nation’s history, offering poignant lessons on the complexities of revolutionary change and the enduring quest for socio-economic transformation in a diverse and evolving society.

Social engineering, in the context of cybersecurity, refers to the manipulation of individuals into divulging confidential information or performing actions that compromise security. This technique has evolved significantly over time, adapting to changes in technology and society. By examining its history, current state and future implications, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of this pervasive threat.

In the digital age, where firewalls and encryption safeguard our data, an often-overlooked threat exploits the weakest link in the security chain: Human psychology. This insidious threat, known as social engineering, involves manipulating individuals into divulging confidential information or performing actions that compromise security. Unlike traditional cyber-attacks that target systems and networks, social engineering preys on human error and trust. The techniques range from phishing emails that mimic legitimate communication to pretexting, where attackers fabricate a story to gain access to sensitive data. Even seemingly benign interactions, like a friendly phone call or an innocuous social media message, can be vectors for these attacks. As our reliance on digital communication grows, the sophistication of social engineering tactics increases, making it imperative for individuals and organizations to recognize and counteract these deceptive practices. Awareness, education and vigilance are our best defenses against social engineering, ensuring that our trust does not become our downfall in the cybersecurity landscape.

Historical context

The concept of social engineering is not new. It dates back to ancient times when individuals employed psychological manipulation to achieve their goals. One of the earliest examples is the Trojan Horse from Greek mythology. The Greeks used deception to gain access to the city of Troy, illustrating how manipulating human trust can lead to significant consequences. In more recent history, con artists like Charles Ponzi in the early 20th century used social engineering to perpetrate financial frauds, preying on people's greed and trust.

With the advent of the digital age, social engineering tactics evolved. The rise of the internet and email in the 1990s introduced new opportunities for attackers. Phishing emails, which trick recipients into providing personal information by masquerading as legitimate communications, became a prevalent form of social engineering. These early attacks laid the groundwork for the sophisticated techniques we see today.

Present-day challenges

Today, social engineering remains one of the most effective methods for cybercriminals. Despite advancements in technology, human behavior remains a critical vulnerability. Modern social engineering attacks are highly targeted and sophisticated, often leveraging extensive information gathered from social media and other online sources.

Phishing attacks have become more convincing, often personalized to increase their success rate. Spear-phishing, a more targeted form of phishing, uses detailed information about the victim to create highly believable emails. For instance, a cybercriminal might research an individual's job role, recent activities, or interests to craft a message that appears to come from a trusted source.

Another prevalent technique is pretexting, where the attacker invents a scenario to persuade the target to divulge information. This could involve pretending to be a colleague, a trusted authority, or a service provider. For example, an attacker might call an employee, posing as IT support, and ask for login credentials in the name of resolving a technical issue.

Baiting and quid pro quo attacks are also common. Baiting involves luring victims with a promise of something enticing, like free software or a prize, which actually installs malware on their devices. Quid pro quo involves offering a service or benefit in exchange for information or access. For instance, an attacker might offer free technical support in exchange for login details.

Social media platforms have become fertile ground for social engineering. Cybercriminals create fake profiles to befriend victims, gather information and exploit it. LinkedIn, in particular, is frequently used for these attacks, given its professional context and the valuable information it provides.

The future of social engineering

Looking ahead, social engineering is likely to become even more sophisticated and challenging to detect. The increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning into cyberattacks poses a significant threat. AI can be used to analyze vast amounts of data quickly, identifying potential targets and crafting highly personalized attacks.

Deepfake technology, which uses AI to create realistic but fake audio and video recordings, is another emerging threat. Imagine receiving a video call that appears to be from a trusted colleague or superior, instructing you to perform a specific action. The potential for such attacks to bypass traditional security measures is significant.

The Internet of Things (IoT) also introduces new vulnerabilities. With more devices connected to the internet, there are more entry points for attackers. IoT devices often have weaker security measures, making them attractive targets. An attacker could manipulate these devices to gain access to larger networks or gather information for social engineering attacks.

To combat these evolving threats, organizations must prioritize cybersecurity awareness and training. Employees are often the first line of defense against social engineering attacks. Regular training can help them recognize and respond to suspicious activities. Additionally, implementing robust security policies and procedures is essential. This includes multi-factor authentication, regular software updates and strict access controls.

Technology also has a role to play in mitigating social engineering risks. Advanced threat detection systems can identify and respond to suspicious activities in real time. Behavioral analytics can help detect anomalies that may indicate a social engineering attack. For instance, if an employee's login patterns suddenly change, this could trigger an alert for further investigation.

Moreover, collaboration between organizations and industries is crucial. Sharing information about threats and best practices can help create a more resilient cybersecurity landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies can also contribute by establishing and enforcing cybersecurity standards.

In conclusion, social engineering is a dynamic and evolving threat that exploits human psychology to compromise security. From its historical roots to its present-day manifestations and future implications, understanding social engineering is critical for developing effective countermeasures. As technology continues to advance, so too must our strategies for protecting against these sophisticated attacks. By prioritizing education, implementing robust security measures and leveraging advanced technologies, we can build a more secure digital future.

Nepal’s logistic sector needs to work towards transforming supply chains through digital platforms and technologies. Despite the rapid advancement of the global supply chain, we continue to rely on traditional methods. The World Bank has been suggesting the government on the agenda of digitalization, but a lack of coordination among government stakeholders has been obstructing the move. The integrated border management system (IBMS) from the World Bank will help streamline the border issues as well as help proper planning from the transit point until the logistic centers and electrical cargo tracking (ETCS) system of ADB with some amendments would help in the transit and domestic flow of goods. The trade facilitation and cross-border paperless trade agendas have been pending for a very long time with little to no activities. Further, involving freight forwarders in the Nepal National Single Window (NNAW) is pending .

The bilateral and regional agreements are all being executed in a very traditional manner, without incorporating modern automation and digitalization mechanisms to ease business and increase traceability, predictability, and accountability to facilitate and meet global supply chain demands.

The customers demand and expect faster, more transparent, and personalized service. To meet their expectations, we need to utilize digital platforms to enhance the customer experience through better tracking, faster delivery, and improved communication to ensure seamless integration of data across different systems and platforms associated with government and private sector service providers. This demands developing data formats and communication between actors in trade facilitation. Another significant challenge is adopting new technologies, scaling them throughout the supply chain through pilot projects in controlled environments before scaling, and making sure these components are simple to integrate and adapt.Protecting sensitive supply chain data from cyber threats is another important and burning issue. Implementing cybersecurity measures, such as encryption, multi-factor authentication, and regular audits, can overcome this by ensuring the accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of data across the supply chain. Data governance policies, as well as the use of data validation tools to maintain high data quality and implement digital signatures, could be useful methods.

The cost factor associated with implementing new digital technologies is high. Still, there is a need to do a cost-benefit analysis and seek cost-effective solutions or phased implementation approaches to manage cost factors. Implementing automation through digitalization has proven successful in many countries, as it helps monitor the flow of goods, documents, money, data, and information among all those associated with the supply chain.

It is essential to change the mindset and adapt to change management by motivating the workforce through proper training, enhancing their digital knowledge, and addressing cultural and operational changes within organizations such as the Departments of Customs and Commerce, as well as both private and government logistic service providers.

Therefore, developing comprehensive training programs and change management strategies to help employees adapt to new technologies is a must, as is setting fixed regulations and standards across different actors and government support agencies to ensure compliance through regular audits. Another challenge is balancing digital transformation with sustainable practices to lessen environmental impacts through monitoring and evaluation. Other precautions include integrating new digital technologies with existing systems using middleware solutions and gradual transition strategies to avoid disrupting operations.

The transition to digitalization in the supply chain requires many issues to be addressed. Some issues require a strategic approach, leveraging the latest digital tools and technologies while ensuring alignment with overall business objectives and maintaining flexibility to adapt to future changes. Implementing IoT devices, real-time tracking, and advanced analytics to monitor and optimize supply chain performance will enable real-time visibility for analytics purposes while also easing the process of doing domestic and international trade.

Like the rest of the world, Nepal faces numerous crises such as rising temperatures, wildfires, lack of drinking water malnutrition and a range of flood and drought occurrences. Records kept at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority show that 1,434 incidents of fire and forest fire were recorded in April-May, a period characterized by the highest number of fire incidents, causing 27 deaths and leaving 86 people injured. 

Additionally, cancer patients have been increasing by the day due to factors like improper use of chemicals and fertilizers. 

On one hand, farmers cannot transplant paddy due to lack of rainfall, while on the other, heavy rains destroy rice crops ready for harvest. Apart from rising temperatures, other factors like high input costs, wild animals on rampage, climate change and unfair share in agricultural products exert pressure on farmers to abandon farming. In order to deal with these contemporary crises, we need to increase our comparative advantage in production systems with the main focus on agroecology.

Agroecology

Agroecology is agriculture integrated with ecology. A production system in harmony with nature, it transcends the traditional practices of tillage, planting, cultivation, harvesting and marketing. Agroecology, according to Stephen R Gliessman, is not just limited to farming practices but deals with the whole chain of interactions among crops, soil organisms and insect pests, their natural enemies as well as environmental conditions and management decisions.

In conventional agricultural systems, there exists a clear distinction between agriculture and nature. In such systems, inorganic fertilizers and pesticides added into soil for increased productivity put microorganisms like bacteria and earthworms at risk, decreasing soil’s ability to rejuvenate. Soil scientist Claude Bourguignon however argues that soil, despite being life’s basis, is simply a substratum. Increased reliance on fossil fuels for agricultural operations and other efforts toward commercialization and modernization of the farm sector disrupts the natural rhythm of production. Furthermore, market forces through liberalization or trade also affect food agriculture dynamics.

Put together, agriculture, forestry and other land use amount to 22 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions with transportation adding a further 15 percent, according to some studies. It is an established fact that the production-centric traditional agricultural systems contribute enormously to greenhouse gas emissions and have low adaptive capacity to climate change.

Nepal is going through its hottest summer on record along with increased forest fires. A contrasting scenario is where severe droughts in winter have resulted in massive crop failure while the highest ever recorded rainfall has led to flood causing a significant loss of matured crops. Water shortage has gotten worse in the Tarai region with depletion of groundwater resources. 

Incidents of landslides and floods have been rising and our study indicates that 80 percent of Nepal’s population is vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Notably, Climate Risk Indexes (CRI) identifies Nepal as the 10th most affected country worldwide with marginalized communities, women and farmers forming a group highly susceptible to climate change impacts.

Commercialization

Subsistence agriculture constitutes a significant feature of our production system, with the exchange of surplus being a major characteristic. The key features of subsistence agriculture include mixed farming, proper integration of livestock, agriculture and forests as well as growing for consumption. Our traditional agricultural practices were diverse, exchange-based and synergetic. However, the introduction of monoculture, chemicals, pesticides and corporate-controlled seeds in the name of commercialization, production and development has made the entire agricultural system more vulnerable to climate change. Increased production costs resulting from this practice has forced small-scale farmers to leave farming altogether, exacerbating food insecurity.

Despite constitutional provisions on sustainable agricultural practices and on the integration of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into the government’s policies and programs, our main policy documents, including annual plans, policies and budgets prioritize chemicals-based farming practices instead of incorporating agroecology into climate adaptation and tourism development or supporting farmers to stay on their farms.

The policies and programs for the fiscal year 2024-25, presented recently in the Parliament, list “increase in power generation and creation of a more conducive environment for investment” as some of the major achievements of the incumbent government. The focus, at least on paper, is also on delivery of fertilizers and seeds on time, and on expanding irrigation services. 

The policy document of the government pledges to increase agricultural investments, attain food self-sufficiency in vegetables and main staple crops, provide insurance coverage for agri-products, apart from promising minimum support price (MSP), farmer cards and emphasizing a productivity-centered modern industrial agriculture, but these pledges are “old wine in a new bottle”.

This document does not seem to bother much about agroecology, which is about promoting organic farming, biodiversity protection, natural farming and indigenous crops. 

It supports organic agriculture and indigenous crop production only for business purposes, which goes against the principle of agroecology. Additionally, there is a provision to provide quality chemical fertilizers for sustainable soil quality management, a practice akin to administering poison to a patient.

Summing up, agroecology can help solve several problems plaguing the farm sector like food insecurity, climate crisis, desertion of farmers due to increased cost of production, increasing import of foodgrains and agricultural goods, decrease in soil fertility due to input-intensive agriculture and increased use of chemical fertilizers. Let this fact dawn on our leaders, policymakers and bureaucrats before it’s too late.