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The world is creeping closer to the warming threshold international agreements are trying to prevent, with nearly a 50-50 chance that Earth will temporarily hit that temperature mark within the next five years, teams of meteorologists across the globe predicted, Associated Press reported.

With human-made climate change continuing, there’s a 48% chance that the globe will reach a yearly average of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels of the late 1800s at least once between now and 2026, a bright red signal in climate change negotiations and science, a team of 11 different forecast centers predicted for the World Meteorological Organization late Monday. 

The odds are inching up along with the thermometer. Last year, the same forecasters put the odds at closer to 40% and a decade ago it was only 10%.

The team, coordinated by the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, in their five-year general outlook said there is a 93% chance that the world will set a record for hottest year by the end of 2026. They also said there’s a 93% chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record. Forecasters also predict the devastating fire-prone megadrought in the US Southwest will keep going.

“We’re going to see continued warming in line with what is expected with climate change,” said UK Met Office senior scientist Leon Hermanson, who coordinated the report, according to the Associated Press.

These forecasts are big picture global and regional climate predictions on a yearly and seasonal time scale based on long term averages and state of the art computer simulations. They are different than increasingly accurate weather forecasts that predict how hot or wet a certain day will be in specific places.

But even if the world hits that mark of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times — the globe has already warmed about 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s — that’s not quite the same as the global threshold first set by international negotiators in the 2015 Paris agreement. In 2018, a major United Nations science report predicted dramatic and dangerous effects on people and the world if warming exceeds 1.5 degrees.

The global 1.5 degree threshold is about the world being that warm not for one year, but over a 20- or 30- year time period, several scientists said. This is not what the report predicts. Meteorologists can only tell if Earth hits that average mark years, maybe a decade or two, after it is actually reached there because it is a long term average, Hermanson said.

“This is a warning of what will be just average in a few years,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the forecast teams.

The prediction makes sense given how warm the world already is and an additional tenth of a degree Celsius (nearly two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) is expected because of human-caused climate change in the next five years, said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who wasn’t part of the forecast teams. Add to that the likelihood of a strong El Nino — the natural periodic warming of parts of the Pacific that alter world weather — which could toss another couple tenths of a degree on top temporarily and the world gets to 1.5 degrees.

The world is in the second straight year of a La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which has a slight global cooling effect but isn’t enough to counter the overall warming of heat-trapping gases spewed by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, scientists said. The five-year forecast says that La Nina is likely to end late this year or in 2023, Associated Press reported.

The greenhouse effect from fossil fuels is like putting global temperatures on a rising escalator. El Nino, La Nina and a handful of other natural weather variations are like taking steps up or down on that escalator, scientists said.

On a regional scale, the Arctic will still be warming during the winter at rate three timesmore than the globe on average. While the American Southwest and southwestern Europe are likely to be drier than normal the next five years, wetter than normal conditions are expected for Africa’s often arid Sahel region, northern Europe, northeast Brazil and Australia, the report predicted. 

The global team has been making these predictions informally for a decade and formally for about five years, with greater than 90% accuracy, Hermanson said, according to the Associated Press.

Teams in white protective suits are entering the homes of coronavirus-infected people to spray disinfectant as Shanghai tries to root out an omicron outbreak under China’s strict “zero-COVID” strategy, Associated Press reported.

City official Jin Chen said Tuesday that in older communities with shared bathrooms and kitchens, the homes of anyone else who uses those facilities will also be disinfected. He tried to address public concern about damage to clothing and valuables, saying residents can inform the teams about anything that needs protection.

Shanghai also suspended service on the last two subway lines that were still operating Tuesday, marking the first time the city’s entire system has been shut down, according to The Paper, an online media outlet.

The latest measures come as Shanghai has ordered people in some districts to stay in their homes again after letting some out for limited shopping in recent weeks. The latest steps have further frustrated residents, who were hoping a more than monthlong lockdown was finally easing as the number of new cases in the city falls.

Most of the city of 25 million people appear confined to their apartments or residential complexes, though there has been some easing in outlying suburban areas without new cases in their communities. AP video shot Monday showed a silent and deserted city, with only a very occasional vehicle and a few food delivery drivers on scooters moving down empty roads, according to the Associated Press.

The daily number of new cases in Shanghai fell to about 3,000 on Monday, down from a peak of 26,000 in mid-April. Authorities have kept most of the city bottled up as they try to stop the spread of the virus, even as many other parts of the world are loosening restrictions and trying to live with it. Six more COVID-related deaths were reported in China’s largest city, raising the toll from the outbreak to 553.

Beijing, the capital, began another round of three days of mass testing for millions of its residents Tuesday in a bid to prevent an outbreak from growing to Shanghai proportions. The city, which recorded 74 new cases on Monday, has locked down individual buildings and residential compounds, shut about 60 subway stations and banned dining at restaurants, allowing only takeout and delivery.

Shanghai initially ordered mass testing along with a limited lockdown, but extended that as case numbers rose. Thousands of residents have been forced into centralized quarantine centers after testing positive or having been in contact with an infected person.

Notices issued in several districts in recent days said residents were ordered to stay home and barred from receiving nonessential deliveries as part of a “quiet period” lasting at least until Wednesday. The measures could be extended depending on the results of mass testing, the notices said. The sudden tightening, after some initial opening up, took residents by surprise, Associated Press reported.

National weightlifter Sanju Chaudhary has been found dead in Lalitpur on Tuesday.

Police said that Chaudhary, a gold medalist of the 13th South Asian Games (SAG), was found hanging at the house of Sanjay Maharjan, a weightlifting instructor, at Lubhu in Lalitpur this morning.

Chaudhary (23) was preparing for the Asian Games. She was selected for the Asian Games from Nepalgunj.

A ROCKET-PROPELLED Grenade (RPG) was fired at the Punjab Police’s Intelligence headquarters in Mohali on Monday evening, triggering a blast at the site, a senior officer told The Indian Express.

Punjab DGP Viresh Kumar Bhawra, who reached the spot, told The Indian Express that there was no report of any injury caused by the attack, which occurred around 7.45 pm. Bhawra said further investigations were on.

According to the senior officer, who confirmed the attack, a wall of the building bore the maximum impact with shattered window panes strewn inside.

“The RPG was fired at a distance from the main entrance by unidentified persons who are believed to have fled in a vehicle. A car was spotted moving from the site the moment the RPG was fired,” the officer said, The Indian Express reported.

A rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) is a shoulder-fired, anti-tank weapon system that fires rockets equipped with an explosive warhead. Officers on the site said the weapon was ‘made in China’ as per the lot number written on it.

Soon after the blast, Mohali was sealed and Quick Reaction Teams from Chandigarh Police reached the spot along with SSP K S Chahal.

There was heavy police deployment at the site after the blast, with a bomb disposal squad and forensic teams on the spot.

The building houses the offices of a number of senior officers, including those holding IG rank.

The office is in the middle of a densely populated area with Maharaja Ranjit Singh Armed Forces Preparatory academy next to it. The Sohana hospital is in its vicinity and a school is at its rear. Police were also searching the residential area around the office, according to the Indian Express.

A police officer said that senior officers had left the office when the attack took place and that other staff on night duty were present.

The blast comes close on the heels of the arrest of a number of suspected terror operatives from Punjab and Haryana recently, and the recovery of an explosive device near the Burail jail in Chandigarh on April 24.

While Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann or his ruling Aam Aadmi Party was yet to react at the time of going to press, former CM and Punjab Lok Congress president Capt Amarinder Singh expressed shock at the incident. “This brazen attack on our police force is deeply concerning,” he said in a tweet, urging Mann “to ensure that perpetrators are brought to justice at the earliest”.

Shiromani Akali Dal president and former Deputy CM Sukhbir Badal said the blast exposed “serious security lapses” and highlighted “once again the deteriorating law & order” situation in Punjab. “Thorough probe required to expose and punish those responsible,” Badal said.

State Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring termed the blast as “disturbing news”.

Former Punjab Home Minister and Congress MLA Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa dubbed the explosion as a “sign of deep communalism”. Condemning the incident, he urged Punjab Police “to investigate and take stern action against those who are intent on disturbing the peace of Punjab”.

Delhi BJP leader Manjinder Singh Sirsa took potshots at the AAP-led government in Punjab, The Indian Express reported.

“Tragic news! Just a week after Patiala’s clash; now a blast outside Intelligence Bureau, Mohali. Punjab Police instead of chasing Bagga should focus on state’s security. Punjab is a border state & Kejriwal shouldn’t experiment with its peace,” he said in a tweet.