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Prime Minister KP Oli has all the right foreign policy ideas. In his two terms as the gov­ernment head, he has made bal­ancing India and China the central plank of Nepal’s post-blockade for­eign policy. In large part this is a personal calculation. Near the end of his political career, and with his health iffy, Oli is deter­mined to leave behind a strong leg­acy: of a Nepali prime minister who not only talked about ‘equidistance’ with the two neighbors, but actually did something about it. With the memory of the blockade fresh on his mind, he embarked on the historic state visit to China in 2016, where he would sign a landmark trade and transit treaty. If this treaty came to fruition, never again would India be able to blockade Nepal. This is why people expected the protocols to make the treaty functional to be signed during Oli’s second state visit to China earlier this month.

It wasn’t meant to be. The 2016 treaty is not mentioned in the 14-point joint statement issued at the end of Oli’s China trip. Some think this owes to the recent thaw in relations between PM Oli and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. Oli, in this reck­oning, is mak­ing a deliberate attempt to maintain a safe distance from China at India’s promoting, for instance by dilly-dallying on the treaty protocols. Or perhaps things were already out of Oli’s hands.

The Trump effect

Much like Nepal-India relations have recently warmed, so have India-China ties. After the Wuhan Summit in April between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, India and China seem intent on working together and mounting a common front in favor of unhindered globalization—which has brought the two countries rich rewards—against a protectionist US. Both Modi and Xi Jinping realize that it is unwise to rely too much on the ever-unpredictable Donald Trump. Some go so far as to argue that India and China have recently even settled their respective spheres of influence in South Asia.

“Such a possibility cannot be ruled out,” says Bhaskar Koirala, the Director of Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Studies. “Why was Nepal excluded from the recent Boao and SCO summits in China? Perhaps this was part of the new Chinese strategy of accommo­dating Indian concerns.”

Nowhere is this change in Indian perception of China more evident than in the Indian media, which in earlier times used to play up the specter of Nepal being gobbled up by China at the slight­est hint of Nepal-China rapprochement. But goaded by the South Block to tone down their anti-China pos­turing, the Indian media were this time largely silent on Oli’s China vis­it; some even wel­comed it.

“Sandwiched between two big countries, it is natu­ral that Nepal should seek to maximize its geography to its own advantage,” wrote The Indian Express in its June 25 editorial. “To that end, it has a tough balancing act to do, and India—no strang­er to tightrope walks itself—should be able to appre­ciate that”. This is an incredible turnaround from their strident blockade-time anti-Oli hysteria.

Border patrol

Other factors too could have delayed the trade and transit pro­tocols. The 14-point joint statement offers some clues, point number 10 in particularly. It says the two sides have agreed to strengthen “coopera­tion between law enforcement agen­cies” and to “negotiate the Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters and Treaty on Extradition”. This is considered vital in order to “strengthen cooperation on the administration of border areas and fight against illegal border crossing and transnational crimes”.

China is clearly worried about opening the sen­sitive region of Tibet without Nepal first giv­ing clear assurance that absolutely no anti-China activities will be permitted in border areas. Hence the emphasis on the extradition of potential Tibetan infiltrators into Nepal. This also suggests that China is not assured that Nepal, at present, can offer such guarantees. But in the view of security analyst Geja Sharma Wagle, as the level of engagement between Nepal and China increas­es, “it is only natural that China is more worried about the security implications of deepened ties.”

The other major agreement signed during Oli’s China visit earlier this month concerns a rail link. Both President Xi and Prime Minister Oli described the MOU on rail connectivity as the “biggest achieve­ment in bilateral history.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang later informed that in the first phase the Shi­gatze-Key­rung line (that is to be completed by 2020) will be extended to Nepal’s Rasuwagadhi and in the second phase to Kath­mandu. Significantly, the ear­lier proposal of Nepal that the line be extended up to Lumbini on the Indo-Nepal border has been dropped. (The whole project is expected to take around six years.)

But opinion continues to be divid­ed on the rail project. As Raamesh Koirala pointed out in Naya Patrika, a high-speed rail may not be a good idea considering the difficult topog­raphy of border areas and that it is much cheaper to build all-weather roads instead. Things should be clearer in August when a Chinese team completes its feasibility study on the cross-border railway.

Whither Lipulekh?

There were other significant agreements in China this time, most notably on 600 MW Marsyangdi Hydro Project, as well as on set­ting up a $140-million cement factory, energy cooperation, opening of the closed Tatopani bor­der, etc. The trade and transit protocols, the government has assured, will also be signed sometime in July.

Thus while the intent of PM Oli to diversify Nepal’s rela­tions away from India, which necessarily entails closer ties with China, is prin­cipally right, he will have to get the modal­ity of connectivity projects rights. He will also have to increasingly heed China’s security concerns. Moreover, the Nepali prime minister could have a tough job of trying to pro­tect Nepali interests in light of the recently heightened engagement between India and China.

Perhaps the most notable omis­sion in the June 21 Nepal-China joint statement was the issue of Lipulekh, the tri-junction point between Nepal, India and China. In 2015 India and China had agreed to increase trade connectivity through this border point without consulting Nepal. As the editorial in the Indian newspaper hinted, it will indeed be a tough balancing act for Oli in the next few years O

Pokhara : The number of Indian tourists visiting Pokhara to escape the brutal Indian summer and to go to the Muktinath Tem­ple in Mustang has drastically increased. Most of these tourists would have travelled to Nepal via road. Generally, few Western tourists visit Pokhara for trekking purposes in the ‘off-season’ between June and September. Before the 2015 earthquakes, Chinese tourists mostly compensated for the shortfall of the Western visitors.

“But after the earthquakes the number of Chinese tourists visiting Pokhara declined,” says Bikal Tulachan, the chairman of the West­ern Development Region Hotel Association (Pokhara). “But the number of Indian tourists visiting Pokhara for touristic and religious reasons has considerably increased,” he says. Most of them come via bus to visit Muktinath, the common pilgrimage of both Hindu and Buddhist devotees. The trend of Indian tourists visiting Pokhara in their own private vehicles has also increased.

Most hotel rooms in Pokhara are right now occupied by Indians. Of all the tourists who visit Nepal, 30 percent come to Pokhara; and nearly half those travelling to Pokhara are Indians, Tulachan informs. Gita Malankar of Gujarat in India, whom we caught by the Lakeside, says she was lured to Pokhara by its natural beauty. “I had heard that the temperature in Pokhara is mild and that it is filled with natural beauty,” she says. “I found that Pokhara is even more beautiful than I had expected.”

Likewise, Parth Malankar, also of Gujarat, informed he had come to Pokhara with another team of 90 Indians after visiting Pashupati­nath Temple and Manakamana Temple. He says he came to escape the Indian heat which is “brutal this time.” The number of Indian tourists staying at the hotels in Muktinath has also increased, says Suraj Gurung of the Muti­nath-based Grand Hotel. These days, various Indian religious leaders organize sermons at Muktinath’s Ranipauwa, which has added to the place’s popularity among Indian tourists.

Of the 700 beds in 22 hotels of Muktinath, which lies 3,710 meters above sea level, most are occupied by Indian tourists. Besides the Muktinath Temple, the majestic views of Dhau­lagri, Nilgiri and Thorung La mountains are the other main draws of Muktinath.

By Krishna Mani Baral

 To try to explain away the failings of Nepali Congress, the main opposition, by saying that it is a ‘divided house’, would be unfair on the previous generations of its lead­ers. Congress has always been a divided house, right from its founding in 1950, when the strong personalities of BP Koirala and Subarna Shumsher Rana repeatedly clashed over the party’s future course. Its other founding fathers like Tanka Prasad Acharya, Dilli Raman Regmi and Ganesh Man Singh were also frequently quarrelling. After the 1990 political change, feuding started between Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and Girija Prasad Koirala. Then, in 2002, the breakaway faction of Sher Bahadur Deuba would form a separate party. It is true that current senior leaders like Deuba, Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula are constantly at loggerheads. Relatively younger leaders like Gagan Thapa and Biswo Prakash Sharma are vying for greater space, even as the old guard looks to hang on. But again that is nothing new. Also, even when divided along personality lines Con­gress had been able to play the role of an effective opposition to previous post-1990 communist governments.

That the party is failing in its role as an opposition is evi­dent enough. For instance when the communist government presented its annual policies and programs, curiously, it was the MPs of the ruling parties who were criticizing it in the par­liament, and not opposition MPs. Moreover, Congress leaders have not grown tired of invoking the specter of ‘communist dictatorship’, which in any case has been a hard-sell, rather than do what they are supposed to: take up people’s liveli­hood issues and hold the government to account.

“Congress is yet to emerge from the state of shock resulting from its humiliating electoral defeat,” says Bishnu Sapkota, a political analyst. “This shock seems to have bred an inferior­ity complex among the Congress rank and file, which makes them reactive rather than proactive.”

Perhaps this defeated mindset explains why Nepali Con­gress, instead of setting the agenda as the main opposition, finds itself in an uncomfortable position whereby its leaders are having to take up the course recommended by the hand­ful of anti-establishment voices expressed in popular media.

Right now the country has no option but to rely on Con­gress to play the role of a responsible and responsive opposi­tion in other to keep the government honest. This is the time for Congress leaders and MPs to set aside differences and collectively work to enhance the party’s opposition role. If not, both the country and their political careers will suffer o

“I got into the betting business starting with the 2013 season of the Indian Premier League. I had befriended an Indian business­man in Thamel and he had given me the rates to the matches,” says Jeevan (30), a restauranteur who’s also a seasonal bookmaker. He takes bets on behalf of different “players” and forwards them to his ‘sources’ on the India-Nepal border. His first season of IPL betting brought him Rs 200,000 in profits and enough confidence to lure in more gamblers and act as a permanent agent of his Indian friend. He gathered bets for the IPL in the next edition (2014) as well, and then for the 2014 football World Cup. “I make money both from the bookmakers as well as from the commissions I get from the punters for collecting their bets. I now have a direct connection to many bookies in India and get the best rates,” says Jeevan. These days he collects bets for the Indian Premier League, the English Premier League and the Champions League and says he has been receiving countless bets for the 2018 World Cup.

Bibek (27) from Samakhushi is a regular “customer” of Jeevan. A student, he helps his family busi­ness in Thamel by the day and turns into an avid gambler by the night. “I love to watch football and I religiously follow all the leagues and know the players of all the teams. So I can make informed bets,” he says. “I don’t think there’s anything wrong with making a little money based on your skills.” Just like oth­er punters in Nepal, Bibek and Jeevan do not see a valid reason behind the illegal status of sports betting in Nepal. They claim it is a mon­ey-making opportu­nity for fans, who should be allowed to put to use their expertise in sports.

Risk worth taking

Nepal’s ‘Gambling Act 1963’ out­laws any “game of chance based on a wager of money.” (This does not include a public lottery organized with government permission or games organized in a public fair or exhibition.) First-time violators have to pay a fine of Rs 200 and/or be detained for four days. There is provision for one to three months of imprisonment for the second time, and an imprisonment of one year for the third time. Many stakeholders, however, believe the penalties for these offences are frugal, which is why gambling activities are increasing.

“It is not the amount of fine or jail-term per se that act as deter­rents. The fact that betting is a crime should be enough to dissuade gam­blers,” says Ram Krishna Subedi, spokesperson for the Ministry of Home Affairs. “We are also aware of illegal gambling rackets. We have in the past arrested and penalized bookies and match-fixers. But unless we get a formal complaint of the World Cup racket you are talking about, we cannot do anything.”

Getting a formal complaint against bookmaking is difficult. Most of these gambling rings operate with­in a closed circle of gamblers who know each other well. Bookies use Facebook Messenger, Viber and mostly Whatsapp (which they con­sider the safest) to communicate. Many of them are well-connected to ranking officers of the security agencies and the government. The muscle-power they can summon at short notice also deters possible complainers. And it is hard for a gambler to complain about a bookie because just by betting the gambler too is part of the crime.

Bet 365

Initially, the bookies in Nepal operated through betting channels based in India, Bangladesh and even Sri Lanka, relying on illegal “hundis” for disbursement of money. But with the growth of cheap and reliable communication and with our youth getting more and more tech-savvy, multiple oper­ators have emerged in the Nepali betting circuit.

With the help of friends and fam­ilies abroad, many Nepalis have opened their own betting accounts with the global gambling websites, most of them with the Gibral­tar-based Bet 365. Thus despite government warning, many Nepali netizens fearlessly speak about their bets on social media. Untraceable international accounts, easy avail­ability of software to mask their IP addresses and disbursement of money through personal channels—they are assurance enough.

APEX also found a rare group of gamblers who are betting via inter­national bookmaking sites using cryptocurrency, which is banned in Nepal. Cryptocurrency has a strong trading presence among Kathman­du’s youth and this World Cup, a bunch of crypt maniacs have found a secure way to gamble without the fear of being caught. One person called Tiwari, an IT student and self-defined “crypto trader” spilled the beans for APEX.

“There are more than half a dozen secure betting sites that accept Bitcoin and other crypto­currencies. We’re using 1xBet right now. It’s clean, easy to use and very secure,” he said. Tiwari and his friends transfer the cryptocurren­cies they have in their crypto-wal­lets, like Bittrex, to 1xBet, which in turn gives them the dollar equiva­lent of their digital money, along with a bonus. The gamesters can then bet through the site and trans­fer their winnings back to their cryp­to-wallets in the form of cryptocur­rencies. Cryptocurrency trading is almost untraceable, especially with masked IP addresses.

Billion-rupee wager

“We’re small fish though,” says Jeevan, the bookie. “There are plen­ty of big players out there who bet in one night what most of us bet in the whole sea­son.” Jeevan is referring to the wealthy busi­nessmen and professional gam­blers who put stakes worth of millions in a single match. “Just this week, a person I know bet Rs 500,000 each on the favorites in the Germany-Mexico and Brazil-Swit­zerland matches. Germany lost and Brazil got a draw. The bookie won that night handsomely.”

So gamblers, big and small, are betting on the 2018 World Cup. Taking to social media to announce their earnings or discussing last night’s winnings at a tea-stall in Samakhusi, or throwing lavish celebrations in the restau­rants of Durbarmarg, the punters are undeterred and unabashed. While the government raids small gambling dens, those in the know say most of the big fish go unpunished. They have cov­ered their tracks well to be able to benefit from an estimated billion-rupee business.