After their humiliating defeat in the March 5 elections, many expected the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML to engage in serious self-reflection and work toward unifying their respective parties. Instead, internal divisions within both parties have intensified, further weakening their position in national politics.
Within the UML, calls are growing for party chairman KP Sharma Oli to step down. Meanwhile, the Nepali Congress appears to be on the verge of a split, as the rival faction led by Purna Bahadur Khadka has yet to fully accept Gagan Kumar Thapa’s leadership.
The UML is now attempting to revive itself, potentially by handing over leadership to former president Bidya Devi Bhandari. Bhandari enjoys a relatively clean public image, but questions remain about whether she possesses the political strength and charisma needed to lead the party. Her renewed party membership appears to be part of a broader effort to rescue a shrinking and increasingly divided UML.
Earlier, Bhandari’s party membership had been revoked after she challenged Oli’s leadership. At the time, some of Oli’s supporters defended the decision by arguing that it was necessary to preserve the dignity and neutrality of the office of the president. Now, however, her membership has been reinstated without any convincing explanation.
It is possible that Bhandari has agreed to eventually take over the party leadership from Oli. Although Oli initially appeared determined to continue leading the UML even after the electoral defeat, he now faces unprecedented pressure to step aside. His deteriorating health has also limited his political activity. In recent weeks, apart from occasional social media posts, he has largely remained silent in public, signaling growing problems within the party.
Yet any leadership transition will not be straightforward. Oli was elected through the party’s general convention, giving him organizational legitimacy. Under such circumstances, he may continue formally as party leader while gradually creating more space for Bhandari to assume greater responsibility.
Following Oli’s arrest over last September’s killings of GenZ demonstrators, Ram Bahadur Thapa has been acting as the leader of both the party and its parliamentary wing. However, many within the UML are uneasy about Thapa’s confrontational approach toward key state institutions. Thapa, popularly known as Badal, has increasingly used rhetoric reminiscent of the hardline Maoist politics he represented between 2008 and 2013.
Traditionally, the UML maintained relatively strong relations with state institutions, including the Nepal Army and the bureaucracy. But Thapa’s recent accusations against these institutions have damaged those ties. Senior UML leaders have since attempted to contain the political fallout.
For now, Bhandari appears more capable of unifying the party than fully reviving it. Most senior leaders after Oli seem willing to accept her leadership. Moreover, several smaller communist parties struggling for political relevance could potentially rally behind her. As a result, the old slogan of left unity may once again return to Nepali politics in the coming weeks.
The March elections signaled a broader generational shift in Nepali politics. At over 60 years of age, Bhandari may struggle to attract younger voters, many of whom have become deeply disillusioned with communist parties. Yet Nepali politics remains unpredictable. After all, communist parties also appeared weakened before making a dramatic comeback in the 2017 elections.
For this reason, it would be premature to write off the UML and other communist forces altogether, even though the party is currently facing a historic crisis. The UML still retains a strong grassroots organizational network across the country. In the coming years, the party may attempt to rebrand itself by moving away from a rigid communist identity and instead projecting itself as a broader socialist force.
The situation inside the Nepali Congress is equally fragile. The rival faction led by Purna Bahadur Khadka is reportedly preparing to register a new political party. Leaders close to the faction say that if party president Gagan Kumar Thapa fails to address their concerns, a formal split may become inevitable.
Several senior leaders aligned with Khadka are unwilling to accept Thapa’s leadership and increasingly favor a separation. At the same time, many leaders close to Thapa have also adopted a hardline position on party unity. They argue that even if the party formally remains united, the chronic factionalism that has long plagued the NC will continue to weaken it from within.
