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Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba has announced that he will not contest the party presidency again. The NC statute too caps a two-term limit for its president. The party is likely to hold its next general convention in 2026, and it will elect a new leadership. According to leaders close to Deuba, the party president is preparing to hand over the presidency, but wants to conduct the next general election under his leadership. Deuba became party president for the first time in 2016 and renewed his term from the general convention held in 2022. As per the party statute, the general convention must be held every four years, but can be extended by one year in case there are any emergency issues. During seven years in power, Deuba has emboldened his position inside the party, and maintains a strong command both in the party's Central Working Committee as well as the Parliamentary Party. No proposal or decision gets endorsed without his approval. Deuba’s decision to step away from the NC leadership comes at a time when there are calls to organize a special general convention to elect a new leadership. The rival camps in the Congress party started calling for Deuba’s resignation after he failed to give continuity to the five-party coalition following the general elections held in November last year. Calls for a change in leadership have grown louder after the party lost the by-election in Tanahun-1, a party stronghold. NC general secretary duo, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, and other leaders such as Gururaj Ghimire have emerged as strong advocates of  immediate leadership change. But, leaders in the Deuba camp say the party president is seeking a graceful exit, like his predecessors. He has expressed strong disdain toward the ongoing campaign launched by Ghimire for party reformation, saying that such an act will further deepen factional politics inside Congress. Some party leaders say Deuba’s leadership is increasingly becoming questionable even though the party emerged as the largest party in parliament in the last year’s general elections. They say Deuba has shown no interest whatsoever in bringing programs to reenergize the party. The NC president and a five-time prime minister is also known for disregarding the party’s statute and imposing his own decisions. For instance, during the last general convention, the party had pledged to organize a policy convention to discuss the party’s ideology, but this has not happened due to Deuba’s reluctance. The NC is confronting new challenges, but its leadership has not paid sufficient attention to energize the party structures. It has been more than a year since the NC held its last convention, and the party is yet to form its departments. The party's sister organizations are also in a state of mess. Following the general elections of last year, parties like the CPN-UML have launched various programs to reach out to their cadres and voters. But the Congress party has not brought any such programs. The party has not even reviewed its election performance. It is the young party members who have been frustrated the most by Deuba’s leadership. Some youth members are even detaching themselves from the party with the intent of joining the new political forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party. “Youths are no longer attracted to our party,” says one leader. “It would be a big achievement for the Nepali Congress if only it could retain the youth members that it has right now.” The situation on the ground is gradually shifting for the NC, but its top leadership has refused to acknowledge it. The party’s organizations are in extreme disarray, and its support base is rapidly shrinking. Some leaders fear that the NC could face a humiliating defeat in the next general elections, if the party did not change its ways. But who is the next leader who can re-energize the NC? Deuba took the leadership of the party after a long-battle with the Koirala dynasty. In the 2022 general convention, he got elected as party president but his key confidants lost the election to the party’s office bearers. Two of Deuba’s rivals, Thapa and Sharma, won the post of party’s general secretary, who are now calling for an end to Deuba’s reign to save Congress. Thapa has even projected himself as the next party leader. In the Deuba camp are leaders like Purna Bahadur Khadka, Prakash Sharan Mahat, and Gyanendra Bahadur Karki. Bal Krishna Khand, another close confidant of Deuba, is currently under arrest for his alleged involvement in Bhutanese refugee scam. Some leaders say within the Deuba camp, there is no clear successor to replace him, as all the leaders see one another as equals and would not agree to see one of them take on the role of the party president. The rival camp led by Shekhar Koirala is also a divided house at the moment, which puts the NC at a precarious position. It is not sure whether Koirala and Thapa will stand together in the next general convention. Koirala wants to become party president and for that he is seeking Thapa’s vote of confidence. But Thapa, who has already contested the election for the parliamentary party leader against Deuba, is also preparing to contest for the party presidency. Compared to Thapa, Koirala has been taking a soft stance on Deuba. Amid calls to hold a special general convention, Koirala, in a way, is defending Deuba, saying that pointing the finger at a single leader for all party’s mess is unfair. Of late, Deuba and Koirala have also been seen sharing the same stage. They were seen together at the convention of the NC, Bhaktapur chapter, recently. Deuba and Koirala also attended a conference of Democratic Lawyers Association held in Chitwan. Some leaders see this as a sign of Deuba projecting Koirala as the next party president. However, Deuba is yet to agree to appoint Koirala as a senior leader of the party, despite the tradition of the party president appointing his closest rival as a senior leader. In the 13th general convention, Deuba had appointed Ram Chandra Poudel, his presidential election rival, as a senior leader. Former NC president Sushil Koirala had also done the same by appointing Deuba as the senior leader. But some NC leaders believe that the next party president should be someone young and influential in order to reenergize the party and to counter the new emerging forces such as Rastriya Swatantra Party and the resurgence of Rastriya Prajatantra Party. For them, Thapa is their obvious choice. But there are many obstacles for Thapa to become the next NC president. Leaders in the Deuba camp as well as some youth leaders do not want Thapa to lead the party. Political analyst Puranjan Acharya says though it is too early to talk about Deuba’s successor, it is clear that there aren’t any towering personalities in the party who could revitalize the party. “I don’t think Deuba will be able to leave his legacy in the party because there could be a split in his faction,” he says. Acharya adds Deuba and Koirala sharing the same stage in recent times is not a sufficient reason to draw a conclusion about the NC’s future leadership. “We have also yet to see how youth leaders like Gagan Thapa, who is claiming the leadership spot, evolve inside the party,” observes Acharya. NC Central Working Committee member Nain Singh Mahar says if they can keep their camp intact they would be able to elect a new president. “It depends on how intra-party dynamics will evolve because we are seeing the rapid changes in the traditional factions of the party. At the same time, national politics will also affect the leadership election.” Thapa is in favor of bringing about a sea change in the party organization, and for that he has been calling for a special convention. But with Koriala apparently cozying up with Deuba to secure his berth as the next NC president, the change that Congress leaders and supporters want may not come after all.

“Prime Minister Prachandaji, you will visit Indore and the religious city of Ujjain. I am sure your visit to Ujjain will be full of energy, and you will also have a spiritual experience in this journey from Pashupatinath to Mahakaleshwar.” This was the statement made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the press conference organized in Hyderabad House after a delegation level meeting with Nepali Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Modi’s statement clearly indicates he wants Nepali leaders to be more committed to Hindu religion. The next day, Dahal offered an elaborate Pooja at Mahakaleshwar temple in Indore. Images of him, a communist atheist clad in Dhoti and Janai performing an act of piety was quite a spectacle. The prime minister was joined by the members of his delegation that included five ministers. Soon after his return to Nepal, Dahal went on to perform another out-of-character move by visiting Pashupatinath temple. Here was the leader of the Maoist revolution whose party detested religion discovering faith, so to speak. His move has also triggered a debate whether it goes against the secular spirit of the 2015 constitution. Dahal has defended himself saying that he visited the temples and participated in rituals as the head of the government. But many are not convinced. Even his long-time colleague and former Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai has said: “When an individual goes to the temple, we cannot raise questions because it is a matter of his belief, but when the whole Cabinet goes there that becomes a political issue.” Why are major political parties who drafted a secular constitution in 2015 are now drifting toward Hindu religion?  Dahal is not the first leader who as a prime minister has tried to appease the Hindu constituency. Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli did the same when they were in power. For instance, Deuba as a prime minister in 2022, performed a Pooja at Kal Bhairav and Kashi Vishwanath in Varanasi. As a prime minister from 2018 to 2022, Oli took a series of measures to woo the Hindu voters. Analysts say it clearly indicates that there is growing influence of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS) inside Nepal’s political parties. Of late, more and more BJP leaders and RSS representatives are traveling to Nepal to step up engagements with various sections of society. A few months back, a RSS representative said: “For us, both India and Nepal are already Hindu states as we do not regard both countries as secular states.” Over the past few years, BJP has expanded its party-to-party relationship with Nepal’s political parties including the communist leaders. Publicly, BJP leaders have not told anything to our leaders about Hindu religion, but they are speaking about enhancing the age-long cultural ties. In their private meetings with Nepali leaders, BJP leaders often mention ‘cultural nationalism’ which means promotion and protection of Hindu religion Since Nepal adopted a secular constitution in 2015, BJP and RSS have been expressing their concerns about religious conversion in Nepal. They believe that there is a growing attack on Hindu religion in the name of secularism. BJP has been reportedly suggesting Nepal’s political parties to take measures to protect the Hindu religion. It is no coincidence that the voices of reinstatement of Hindu state are gaining ground inside major political parties of Nepal, including the Maoists. In the second week of May this year, Maoist leader Ram Kumar Sharma submitted a memorandum to Prime Minister Dahal demanding a referendum between Hindu state and secularism. It was the first instance of the Hindu agenda being raised inside the party. Inside the NC, such voices are already strong and vocal.  NC Central Working Committee leader Shankar Bhandari and several other leaders are demanding a referendum on secularism. But party President Sher Bahadur Deuba has so far managed to quell such a demand.  During the 2018 meeting of the Mahasamiti, the party’s second-most powerful decision-making body, over 40 percent of the delegates had petitioned the party leadership to amend the party charter to address the issue. Advocates of the cause argue that the people were not consulted on religion during the writing of the constitution. Of the 1,600 party delegates assembled in Kathmandu for the meeting, around 700 (over 43 percent) supported a signature campaign to press the party leadership to reinstate Hindu state. Inside the CPN-UML, too, the call for Hindu state is growing rapidly. A chunk of UML leaders are demanding a re-think on federalism and a referendum on Hindu agenda. In the second week of May, some leaders proposed a discussion on federalism, but the party chairman, Oli, did not agree Observers say this is not only about the influence of BJP, major parties are in fact trying to appease the Hindu constituencies to gain votes. There is a growing realization among major parties that antagonizing the Hindu population, which constitutes 81 percent of total population, is not in their interests. In 2022, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, which advocates for the Hindu state, secured 14 seats in the national parliament. In a public opinion poll conducted a few years back by Sharecast Initiative Nepal, an NGO, 51.7 percent respondents—slightly down from a 15-year average of 60 percent—said Nepal should be declared a Hindu state, 40.3 percent said they are okay with secularism, while 8.1 percent respondents withheld their views. According to the survey, the support for Hindu state, at around 70 percent, is the highest in Province 2, now Madhes province. As major parties are drifting toward Hindu religion, is there a chance of a referendum? Many politicians and experts that ApEx spoke to do not rule out such possibility. They are of the view that as people’s frustration is boiling up against the current system, there are clear risks to Nepal’s secularism. One senior politician said: “In 2015, political parties had almost agreed to not mention anything about religion in the constitution, but that did not happen. There may not be a revival of Hindu state, but there may be an amendment to the constitution to remove the mention of religion.” Political analyst Dambar Khatiwada said since Prime Minister Dahal has lost all ideological, ethical and principle grounds, there is no point commenting about his recent temple visits in India and Nepal. “During the insurgency period, they [Maoist rebels] destroyed temples, killed priests and spoke about the cultural revolution. Now they have totally changed,” he said. Lawmaker Amresh Kumar Singh said Dahal has abandoned all his principled position to remain in power.  “Prime Minister Dahal is traveling to the temples of India and Nepal only to appease the BJP and RSS, which is not helpful to the country. Personally he may take some benefits, particularly cementing his hold on power,” he said.  Singh does not believe that Nepal’s secularism is in crisis, but he does not rule out the possibility of debates and controversies over religion in the future. Chairman of Rastriya Prajatantra Party Rajendra Lingden, which is advocating for the restoration of Hindu state and monarchy, said Prime Minister Dahal’s Pashupati visit immediately after his India visit was significant.  “We are very happy that Prime Minister Dahal accepted the agenda of Hindu state. But if this was just an act that he was putting on to make someone happy, it will be very unfortunate.”

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectorial Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) marked its 26th anniversary on Tuesday. The regional organization, which serves as a bridge between South Asian and Southeast Asian countries, was founded on 6 June 1997 with the purpose of fostering regional cooperation.  The fifth summit of the BIMSTEC heads of state and government signed the BIMSTEC Charter only last year, which talks about creating an enabling environment for rapid economic development through identification and implementation of specific cooperation projects in the already agreed areas of cooperation. Out of seven BIMSTEC member-states, five of them are also part of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), namely Nepal, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Some see BIMSTEC as a replacement to SAARC, which is in a state of moribund since nearly a decade due to the India-Pakistan dispute. One of the key SAARC member-states, India appears more inclined toward fostering BIMSTEC. For a long time, the regional body did not make any progress but once the SAARC went into hibernation after 2016, BIMSTEC started to make progress.  Nepal is a strong proponent of regionalism as it provides an opportunity to make its voices loud in the international arena. In his message, BIMSTEC Secretary General Tenzin Lekphell has said the adoption of the charter has provided necessary legal provisions to build more efficient and effective working methods for BIMSTEC to strengthen its institutional framework and form a meaningful partnership within the region. As BIMSTEC marks its 26 anniversary and looks forward to its sixth summit due to be held in Thailand later this year, the regional organization seeks to revisit and re-examine its working methods to better serve the people in the region through Eminent Persons’Group to put forth practical recommendation for the future of BIMSTEC, the Lekphell has said. Nepal’s Minister for Foreign Affairs NP Saud has highlighted the potentials of BIMSTEC in terms of natural resources, cultural heritage, tourism, trade and investment. On this occasion of the organization’s 26th anniversary, BIMSTEC heads of state and governments have expressed their commitment to pushing forward the BIMSTEC process. Pushpa Kamal Dahal,  PM of Nepal:  BIMSTEC has completed the journey of a quarter century since its establishment in 1997. The region is diverse in geography but closeness in cultural and civilizational values brings together the South and Southeast Asian countries for the meeting of the aspirations of about 1.6 billion people. With the adoption of BIMSTEC Charter and reconstitution of BIMSTEC areas of cooperation, the fifth summit of BIMSTEC has given a new momentum to the regional process. Now, our concerted efforts and solidarity for the implementation of all our decisions and commitments are instrumental for making the region prosperous, resilient, and sustainable. As an active member of BIMSTEC, we are delighted to lead the people-to-people contact as one of the important areas of cooperation and look forward to working with all members. The six summits, which will take place this year under the chairmanship of Thailand, will have extensive deliberations on connectivity and other projects. Sheikh Hasina, PM of Bangladesh:  As one of the founding members of BIMSTEC, Bangladesh places great importance to the BIMSTEC process for socioeconomic development of the region through collective endeavors in a spirit of equality and partnership. The ongoing economic crisis due to the Ukraine war has taught us a harsh lesson and the importance of a strong region is more felt than ever before. We need to work together to face these challenges. During the last 25 years of its existence, the organization has made some truly remarkable strides. It is encouraging to see that over this period, BIMSTEC has been able to create a number of crucial administrative and regulatory structures including having its charter which will certainly contribute to move the BIMSTEC process forward. As a founding member and a host of its secretariat, I reiterate our commitment to taking every step possible to further strengthen the BIMSTEC process forward. Lotay Tshering, PM of Bhutan: As we observe BIMSTEC Day, let us reflect on the strengths and potentials of our vibrant region. Together, we have achieved significant milestones in the various sectors including trade, investment, energy, transportation, tourism and cultural exchanges and making important headways in others. Our collective efforts have contributed to the development and prosperity of nations, benefiting our people. Let us look into a future with optimism and focus on further strengthening the BIMSTEC process in fulfilling our common goal of peace and prosperity in the region. Narendra Modi, PM of India: BIMSTEC framework is our commitment to creating an enabling environment for the rapid development of our region through joint endeavors in the spirit of equality and partnership. I am happy to note that we achieved a major milestone with the adoption of the BIMSTEC Charter last year. The Bay of Bengal has been a long-standing bridge between the people of BIMSTEC region. Our current efforts to have a maritime cooperation agreement and an agreement to facilitate the movement of motor vehicles across the region reinforces the importance of Bay for our collective security, connectivity and prosperity. I am confident that BIMSTEC countries will steadily move toward building a well-connected, more prosperous and a secure BIMSTEC region. Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of State Administration Council, Myanmar:  Myanmar joined BIMSTEC on 22 December, 1997 with shared aspirations of collective efforts for economic development during peace in the Bay of Bengal region. In the 26 years of its journey, BIMSTEC, a rule-based intergovernmental organization has been able to put its best foot forward in enhancing economic growth and prosperity in the region. I also have a firm belief that our commitments under the BIMSTEC mechanism brings stronger solidarity and friendship among the member states. Today, ramifications of Covid-19 and disruptions of global economic stability were unprecedented to the people around the world. I am confident that through our joint efforts, we can address those issues. Ranil Wickremesinghe, President of Sri Lanka:  BIMSTEC is indeed an important and meaningful organization, bringing the people and economics of South Asia and South East Asian region which are abundantly endowed with significant potential for economic development and enhancing the people-to-people contact. Bound by shared history and traditional cultural linkages, BIMSTEC has secured to be a prosperous regional grouping.  It is indeed gratifying to note that cooperation under the BIMSTEC banner has expanded in recent years. Sri Lanka remains committed to the founding principles embodied in the BIMSTEC charter and stands ready to work with other countries. Prayut Chan-o-Cha, PM of Thailand :  BIMSTEC has come a long way since the signing of the Bangkok declaration in 1997. The organization’s Silver Jubilee last year reflected that BIMSTEC has grown to become a cornerstone of regional cooperation in South and SouthEast Asia, creating an enabling environment for regional development and promoting economic growth. Through our collective efforts, we have made significant progress in a number of areas, notably in promoting regional integration, increasing trade and investment, improving transport and connectivity, enhancing security cooperation, and promoting people-to-people exchanges. Since assuming the chairmanship last year, Thailand has been committed and determined to work closely with all member-states to strengthen this regional organization.

It has been three months since Ram Chandra Paudel was elected the country’s head of state. In this period, he has tried to build a distinct image than of his predecessors.  Soon after his election, he won plaudits from the people and media for breaking away with the tradition of “royal carcade” during his travels. But then criticisms followed. The first one came with his decision to visit India for treatment. President Poudel was taken to task for spending taxpayers' money. After intense criticism, he later announced to foot his medical expenses on his own. But it is the latest controversy that has put President Poudel on the spot, and many have started to claim that he is no different from his predecessors, Dr Ram Baran Yadav and Bidya Devi Bhandari, whose presidential legacies were full of controversies. President Paudel’s decision to authenticate the divisive Citizenship Amendment Act right before Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s official India visit has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, opposition parties have obstructed the Parliament in protest of  Paudel’s move, while some legal eagles say the President’s decision to endorse the old bill violates the constitutional provisions. It was the same bill that was forwarded by the previous government and Parliament to the Office of the President during Bhandari’s tenure. However, former president Bhandari had refused to endorse the bill, expressing reservations over some of its provisions. And when the former government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress forwarded the same bill to the Office of the President for the second time, Bhandari never got around to authenticating the bill, as per her constitutional duty, because the country went to the national elections in November 2022, and soon her term expired. President Paudel has courted controversy because there are no clear constitutional provisions on whether the new president can stamp the bill rejected by the previous president. Initially, Prime Minister Dahal had verbally asked President Paudel to authenticate the bill, but the latter refused to do so, saying the government should provide him a solid basis to endorse the bill. Soon after becoming president in March, Paudel had also consulted with some constitutional experts on the same matter, but their opinions were divided. Later, Prime Minister Dahal along with two former prime ministers Deuba and Madhav Kumar Nepal, and the law minister visited the president to put pressure on him to endorse ‘the controversial bill.’ Again, President Paudel asked the government for a legal basis that would allow him to authenticate the bill. The government then worked out a plan of tendering a formal request to the Office of the President for the endorsement of the bill. It was on the basis of this document, President Paudel signed the bill. Some constitutional experts say the bill is technically dead after the dissolution of the previous parliament and President Paudel cannot revive the bill that was in effect tossed away by the former president. But the Office of the President does not subscribe to this argument. Kiran Pokhrel, president’s press advisor, says President Paudel has not breached the constitution.  “The new President has corrected the mistakes committed by former President Bhandari,” he claims. “By endorsing the bill, he has upheld the supremacy of Parliament and the constitution.” Another senior advisor to President Paudel also dismissed the argument that the new president cannot endorse the bill, as it was passed by the previous House of Representatives (HoR).  “The constitution has not envisioned a legislative gap because the National Assembly is always there.  There is a provision of periodic election of the HoR or it could be dissolved but the upper House always remains there.” As far as the content of the bill is concerned, he says, it is the jurisdiction of political parties and Parliament to finalize the contents of any bill. Pokhrel says there has been a systematic campaign to create an illusion by some forces and people will ultimately know the truth. The timing of the authentication of the bill has also drawn suspicion. President Paudel authenticated the bill just before Prime Minister Dahal embarked on his official India visit on May 31. This was brought up by Rastriya Prajatantra Party Chairman Rajendra Lingden in Parliament on Sunday. “We are of the view that the issues related to citizenship should be addressed without any delay but the process adopted and timing of the endorsement is objectionable,” he told the Parliament. While Prime Minister Dahal too has acknowledged that the timing of the bill’s endorsement was inopportune, it is noteworthy that he had called on President Paudel just before his flight to New Delhi. Lingden has accused the major political parties of using the Office of the President for political benefits. Former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC says the experiences of other parliamentary democracies show that any bills that have been endorsed by both houses of parliament and sent to the president’s office can remain active until it is endorsed. “The new President should not return the bill to the House on the ground that the new parliament has come through the elections,” says KC “The bill is the property of the president’s office.” According to him, the Indian court has delivered a verdict that bills will turn passive if it is not endorsed by either upper or lower house, but the bill already forwarded to the president’s office remains active. Senior advocates Surendra Bhandari, Bal Krishna Neupane and Ishwari Bhandari in their petition have argued that the President encroached on the constitution by endorsing the bill passed by the previous parliament. They are of the view that the executive does not have exclusive power to forward the bill to the President and get it endorsed. The petitioners have argued that the due process has not been followed while endorsing the bill, and that it is against the principle of separation of powers. The ruling as well as Madhes-based parties have welcomed the President’s move, but the opposition parties such as CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party have protested it. UML leader Yogesh Bhattarai has said the President is also a part of Parliament and he must therefore keep the dignity of the Parliament.  But, political analyst Vijaya Kanta Karna disagrees. “Had the President not endorsed the bill, it could have set a precedent that presidents are not obliged to authenticate the bill forwarded by parliament and government, and other bills in the future could face the same fate.” There are also arguments that the Cabinet cannot recommend the President to endorse the bill, it is the jurisdiction of Parliament to forward the bill to the Office of the President for authentication. Legal experts who hold such views say that the Cabinet can only forward ordinances to the President, not bills. The new issue has divided the political parties and legal fraternity and the case has reached the court. There are already five cases filed against former President Bhandari’s refusal to authenticate the bill pending in the Supreme Court. Earlier, KP Sharma Oli-led in May 2021, had introduced an ordinance on the same issue but the apex court directed the government not to implement the ordinance. Now, it is up to the Supreme Court to clear current constitutional ambiguities interpreting the constitutional provisions related to bills. The passage of the bill has paved the way for around 400,000 people to apply for citizenship. The Citizenship Act 2006 allowed everyone born in Nepal before 1990 to acquire citizenship by birth, but their children who now are eligible to get citizenship are deprived of it. The amended provision in the bill paves the way for such people who have not been able to apply for Nepali citizenship.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has claimed that his recent India visit made progress on some key bilateral issues.  For the first time since the map row erupted between the two countries in 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged that boundary dispute in a press conference. This acknowledgement, according to Dahal, was an indication of a commitment from the political level to find a possible way out to settle the dispute. Every prime minister-level visit between Nepal and India provides an opportunity for a frank exchange of views and concerns. Prime Minister Dahal’s India visit was no exception. This time too, Dahal and his Indian counterpart Modi held candid discussions on all outstanding issues between the two countries. The Indian side said in a statement that the ‘two sides held productive discussions, which helped to widen the understanding perspective on a wide range of bilateral agendas and gave a robust direction to take the deep-rooted partnership forward.’ PM Dahal has said that candid and open discussion between two sides helped to build an environment of trust. The only concern for Nepal was that Prime Minister Dahal didn’t think about setting an institutional memory of his visit and meetings with the Indian side by choosing to discuss the bilateral issues in the absence of foreign minister or officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In some respects, the visit was different from the previous ones. This time, bilateral talks were more focused on economic and development partnership, said former Nepali ambassador to India Lokraj Baral. "The visit has been largely successful because Modi has shown positive gestures on key issues, and unlike past visits, PM Dahal’s visit gave more importance to the development agenda which is a key foundation of bilateral issues," Baral said. Political analyst Bishnu Dahal said India appears to have abandoned the policy of micromanagement in Nepal and is now focusing more on energy, water and other cooperation issues.  "The changing geopolitical situation may have prompted New Delhi to change the pattern of relationship with Nepal." One of the key outcomes of the visit was progress on energy cooperation. The two countries finalized an agreement for a long-term power trade, where India has pledged to import 1000 MW of electricity from Nepal within ten years. The two sides must sign a formal document on power trade as soon as possible and address other remaining issues related to export to India. India and Nepal have also signed memorandum of understanding (MoUs) on Lower Arun and Phukot-Karnali hydroelectric projects. Similarly, India has agreed to purchase 1200 MW of electricity, including 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project. Similarly, two sides have reached an agreement on the constructions of transmission lines. Geopolitical analyst Bijaya Kanta Karna said the agreement on the power sector is vital because it has ended the long-standing uncertainty of the electricity market that Nepal produces. "India has agreed to buy the electricity which means more investment will come to Nepal in the hydropower sector," he said. Likewise, the two prime ministers also inaugurated some projects and oversaw the signing of several MoUs. Nepal and India also renewed the Transit Agreement which will allow Nepal to use inland waterways of India for the shipments of goods from third countries.  In 2019, India had agreed to provide three inland waterways, which has become a key component of the transit agreement. India has been providing more transit points after Nepal signed a transit agreement with China in 2016. According to Karna, the agreement on the transit is vital as it allows Nepal's own shipment from Kolkata port to the border. There have also been some positive discussions on exporting Nepali hydropower to Bangladesh via India, though many things are yet to be done. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, India has decided to facilitate the first trilateral power transaction from Nepal to Bangladesh, through the Indian grid with an export of 40 MW electricity. There has to be trilateral talks for this power trade agreement to take shape. Pancheshwor Multipurpose Development Project was also one of the key agendas of Dahal’s India visit. The agreement to finalize the detailed project report (DPR) within the next three months and ensure financial arrangement within a year was a positive development. It must be noted though that there has always been positive talks at the political level. The hurdle lies at the bureaucratic level. Nepal has also requested for non-reciprocal access to its agricultural and primary products to the Indian market. To this end, the two prime ministers have directed for early convening of commerce-secretary level meeting to address the issues related to trade and to review the trade treaty. Similarly, the two countries agreed to push other economic and development partnership issues including the key connectivity projects. Three prominent talking points that used to be at the center of every prime minister’s visit — Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) report, border dispute, and 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty — didn’t find a prominent space during Dahal’s India visit. Probably, for the first time after 2016, the issue of EPG was skipped during bilateral meetings. Prime Minister Dahal later said that “he didn’t want to spoil the environment” by raising the EPG issue with the Indian side. So, it seems that the issue of the EPG and 1950 treaty is almost over. While the border issue did figure during the one-on-one meeting between Dahal and Modi, there was no official level talks. Another keenly watched issue was Prime Minister Dahal’s visit to Mahakaleshwar temple in Madhya Pradesh, highlighting the strong cultural ties between India and Nepal. Dahal, a Maoist leader who has never visited Hindu temple in Nepal and whose party targeted Sanskrit education during the insurgency era, offered prayers at the Mahakaleshwar temple. This out-of-character gesture from Prime Minister Dahal was significant, as Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its affiliate organization, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, have been urging Nepali leaders to take measures to protect the Hindu religion. BJP leaders are of the view that the Hindu religion in Nepal is being attacked in the disguise of secularism. But, Prime Minister Dahal defended his move by saying that he was not just a communist leader but the prime minister of Nepal, and his refusal to visit the temple could have hurt the sentiment of 1.4 billion people of India. Apart from bilateral ties, Nepal and India also discussed the ‘regional environment’ mainly focusing on China’s growing military, political and economic influence in the smaller countries, including Nepal. According to officials, the two sides discussed how China’s rise is affecting Nepal-India ties. Of late, China’s growing influence in Nepal has been a major concern for India.  Of late, Indian officials are prominently raising their security concerns in Nepal.  Overall, Dahal’s India visit was an indication that the bilateral relationship between Nepal and India is gradually heading towards normalization.  The economic and development partnership has gained momentum. Analyst Karna said the visit is a departure from past visits because of the agreement achieved in the areas of energy cooperation, connectivity and other development projects.  But many of the agreements have been reached at the prime minister’s level which needs to be finalized at the bureaucratic level. To do so, both sides should maintain and nurture an environment of trust. They must avoid possible irritants, especially at a time when the regional environment is very fragile, and could anytime spoil the bilateral relations.

Nepal and India have agreed to put economic and development partnership at the center of their bilateral engagement, apparently downplaying the key contentious issues such as border dispute, 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty and EPG report. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal who is on four-day official visit to India, held bilateral talks with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. During the talks, the two sides signed seven agreements and made understanding on several issues, including trilateral power cooperation between Nepal, India and Bangladesh. If the agreements are implemented on time, they will substantially boost economic and development partnership between the two countries. According to officials, the discussions between two sides was focused on enhancing development partnership mainly in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development. Speaking at a press conference after talks between Modi and Dahal, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra said during the restrictive and delegation-level talks there was no mention of border dispute, EPG report, 1950 treaty and on Agnipath. However, both Dahal and Modi briefly touched upon the boundary issues without any further elaboration during their joint address. We will resolve all the issues, be it boundary related or any other issues, Modi said. Dahal also said that issues related to boundaries would be resolved through established mechanisms. The two countries have signed several agreements in the power cooperation sector (see full report page 5), a prominent agenda of bilateral talks. PM Dahal and Modi also discussed Nepal's relationship with China and Nepal’s reported preparations to buy military hardware from China. The two leaders briefed each other about their country’s relationship with China. Asked about the China issue, Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra, in the press conference, said: "When it comes to the vital developments in the region (read China), naturally two prime ministers did discuss the development in the region and what challenges they pose to India-Nepal bilateral relations and what should be done to mitigate those challenges.” The two countries have signed seven agreements. One of them is renewal of the transit agreement between two countries which has paved the way for Nepal to use waterways for the shipments of goods from third countries. Indian PM Modi said transit agreements have been signed today and the two countries have established new rail links to increase physical connectivity. Likewise, the two prime ministers inaugurated the Integrated Check Post(ICP) at Nepalgunj (Nepal)-Rupaidihya (India). The two countries also signed an agreement for the phase-2 Motihari-Aklekhgunj petroleum pipeline project, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the development of 480 MW Phukot-Karnali Hydro-electricity Project, and Project Development Agreement (PDA) for 679 MW Lower Arun Hydro-electricity Project. On Pancheswhor Multi-purpose development project, two countries have agreed to finalize the detailed project report (DPR) within next three months and decide on the investment modality. It has been 27 years since the two countries signed the Mahakali Treaty but it is yet to be implemented. Experts have provided mixed reactions regarding the outcome of the visit. Rajan Bhattarai, foreign affairs advisor to former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, said the PM’s visit failed to make concrete progress on minimizing trade imbalance, contributing to the tourism sector, ensuring air routes for newly constructed airports, and opening Indian markets for Nepali agriculture products. There was also no progress on some outstanding issues such as EPG and boundary dispute. Deep Kumar Upadhyay, former Nepali Ambassador to India, said the success of the visit shall be measured on the basis of the implementation of those agreements.  “Without intervention from the political level, it is very hard to implement the agreements reached between the two countries,” he said. Project handover, inauguration

• Handing over of Kurtha-Bijalpura section of railway line
• Inaugural run of an Indian railway cargo train from Bathnaha (India) to Nepal Customs Yard, a newly constructed rail link under Indian grant
• Inauguration of Integrated Checkposts (ICPs) at Nepalgunj (Nepal) and Rupaidiha (India)
• Groundbreaking ceremony of ICPs at Bhairahawa (Nepal) and Sonauli (India)
• Groundbreaking ceremony of phase-II facilities under Motihari-Amlekhgunj Petroleum Pipeline
• Groundbreaking ceremony of Indian portion of Gorakhpur-Bhutwal Transmission Line being built by a JV of PGCIL and NEA

MOU exchange 

• Treaty of Transit between the Government of India and the Government of Nepal

• MoU between the Government of India and the Government of Nepal for cooperation in the field of Petroleum Infrastructure

• MoU between the Government of India and the Government of Nepal for the development of infrastructure at Dodhara Chandani check post along India-Nepal border
• MoU between Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service (SSIFS) and the Institute of Foreign Affairs, Nepal
• MoU between NPCIL and NCHL, Nepal for cross border payment
• Project Development Agreement of Lower Arun Hydroelectric Project
• MoU between NHPC and VUCL, Nepal for the development of Phukot- Karnali Hydroelectric Project

PM Dahal Prime Minister Modiji and I discussed the boundary matters. I urged Prime Minister Modiji to resolve the boundary matters through the established bilateral diplomatic mechanisms.  I commended the role played and initiatives taken by Prime Minister Modi ji during India’s G20 Presidency as well as SCO Chairmanship, including for giving voice to the issues of concerns to the global south. Nepal is happy to join India’s multilateral initiatives of the International Solar Alliance and more recently the International Big Cat Alliance. We would like to have regular flights from Nepal’s newly built international airports of Bhairahawa and Pokhara to and from various cities of India. PM Modi Nepali PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal and I had productive talks on the progress in India-Nepal relations over the last few years and ways to deepen this cooperation even further, key sectors like commerce, energy, culture and infrastructures featured prominently in the discussions.  9 years ago, I had talked about the HIT friendship between India-Nepal relations– Highways, I-ways, and Trans-ways. Our partnership has bloomed since and we want to make our partnership a Superhit which is what these projects will achieve.  

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is visiting India from May 31, his first abroad trip after assuming office on 25 Dec 2022.  The much-awaited visit was delayed primarily due to two key reasons: first due to the fluid political situation at home, and the second due to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s busy schedule. The Indian prime minister has just returned from Japan after participating in the Quad Leaders’ Summit. Over the past couple of years, India has been in the focus of global powers. In December last year, it assumed the G20 presidency and is preparing to convene the G20 leaders’ summit for the first time. India is also set to  host Quad Leaders’ Summit later this year. Prime Minister Dahal’s India visit will be meaningful amid growing US-China rivalry, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and  China and Russia coming closer for a shared objective of weakening the US global dominance. The Western bloc sees India as a counterweight to China’s influence in the South Asian region, and has come up with a series of policy and institutional measures to contain China’s growing military and economic influence in the smaller countries of this region. Meanwhile, after the Western sanctions, Russia too is looking at Asia to expand its trade and business, with India at the center. So far, India, one of the biggest powers in Asia, and other small countries of the Global South have refused to join bloc politics. They have taken a neutral and independent position on the Russia-Ukraine war. India, for example, continues to engage with Russia regardless of the criticisms from the Western powers. India’s economy is in the sixth position behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the UK, but it is poised to become the third largest economy, overcoming other powers. And as India increases its engagement with global powers, its top political level has little time to engage with small Asian countries, including its neighbors like Nepal. It takes several months for envoys of South Asian countries to even get to pay a courtesy call to Indian Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar. Through the G-20 presidency, India wants to shape global debates, says strategic analyst Binoj Basnyat. He adds India’s ambition to lead the Global South is evident in its influence in global political affairs and increased engagements with political-economic-security groupings like the Quad, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the G7, G20 and ASEAN. Though the “neighborhood first” policy remains at the core of Nepal-India relationship, Basnyat says it is also important to acknowledge India’s expanding engagements with West Asia, East Asia and Far-East Asia. Prime Minister Dahal should be well-informed about where the world and Asia is heading when he holds talks with his Indian counterpart Modi. The Nepal government should be clear about where it stands amid the changing geopolitical landscape. The clarity of vision also applies when dealing with other powers like China and the US. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Germany, among others, have come up with their own Indo-Pacific visions as per US’ Indo Pacific Strategy. India is already a member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Will Prime Minister Dahal consider this changing global scenario and changing India when he sits for dialogue with Indian leadership? This time too Foreign Minister Narendra Saud has continued the customary practice of seeking suggestions from former foreign ministers and experts for the prime minister’s India visit. Obviously, Nepal and India have some long-standing issues such as border dispute and EPG (Eminent Persons’ Group) report that should get due priority when the two sides sit for a meeting during Dahal’s India trip. But Nepal should also look beyond these issues to foster a more dynamic relationship with India. Prime Minister Dahal should be able to present Nepal’s vision on how Nepal wants to take the economic benefit from India’s rise and changing global environment. For instance, Bangladesh has come up with the Indo-Pacific Outlook outlining guiding principles and objectives. The document recognizes the stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific as a crucial factor in realizing Bangladesh’s vision 2041. Nepal could make a similar vision on the Indo-Pacific which does not mean that Nepal should join the US' Indo-Pacific Strategy. The Quad Leaders’ Summit has come up with several initiatives and projects for the Indo-Pacific region. Nepal should be able to present its position through India. Likewise, Japan has shown greater interest to invest in the infrastructure of South Asia, which is an opportunity for Neap. Japan and Nepal can work jointly in connectivity projects including roads, railways and waterways. Nepal must have a concrete plan on how it will execute and use such projects for greater economic cooperation. South Korea has also shown its interest to engage with Nepal under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Nepal and India can sign a long-term comprehensive economic cooperation in this regard. Nepal is going through an economic recession, unemployment rate is surging, and foreign investment is dwindling. In this scenario, Nepal should be able to lay out a clear vision on how it wants to engage with India on the economic front, instead of just seeking assistance for some development projects. Of late, there has been some progress on connectivity projects but there is no plan on how we are going to use those connectivity projects.  Similarly, the Nepal government needs to make preparations with how it is going to engage with Indian states that share borders with Nepal. India has already adopted a policy of competitive federalism which means Indian states compete with each other in attracting foreign investments and Nepal can take benefit from those Indian states. There should be introspection on how Indian investment is not coming to Nepal and why multinational companies are hesitating to invest. Until now, unskilled manpower and seasonal workers have been going to India for employment. Now, we can request India to provide certain quotas for skilled workers. Thousands of students who studied in India and Western universities could get high paying jobs in the Indian market. There has been good progress on energy cooperation between Nepal and India, but many issues are yet to be settled. Nepal has a high potential of contributing to the entire South Asia for clean energy. For that to happen, there is a need for collaboration between Nepal and India. India is the current chair of G20 and it is an opportunity for Nepal to make its voice heard at the international level. For instance, the impact of climate change on the Himalayas is an urgent issue of Nepal on which global attention is required. Nepal can ask India to make this one of the key agenda of G20. But Nepal’s plans and visions are unlikely to figure during Dahal’s India visit. It is already clear that his visit will revolve around the same old agendas, and that Prime Minister Dahal will most likely use the trip as an opportunity to cement his power. It is already too late to come up with a vision on how Nepal is going to engage with new India and other powers. .The same point is applicable with China, because Nepal is not prepared to take benefits from China’s rise. Many scholars have already started talking about G3 which means the US, India and China will shape the new world order. Uddhab Pyakurel, associate professor at Kathmandu University, says confusion in understanding Nepal’s geo-political reality has remained the main challenge for Dahal and his party. As the Maoist party has never been rational when dealing with Nepal’s immediate and distant neighbors, he adds to expect a major development in Nepal-India relations out of Prime Minister Dahal’s upcoming visit would be a folly.

Russia has submitted a written proposal at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, seeking to enhance ties with Nepal at multiple levels, from high-level political engagements to infrastructure development projects. The document, which was seen by ApEx, expresses Russia’s readiness to increase its assistance to Nepal and talks about the new areas of the cooperation between the two countries. The document was prepared on the basis of talks held by National Assembly Chairman Ganesh Prasad Timalsina with the Russian officials during his visit to Russia in April. Geopolitical experts say Russia reaching out to Nepal is part of its wider Asia policy of expanding ties with all big and small countries to withstand Western sanctions. Most recently, the G7 nations decided to put more sanctions on Russia as it continues to wage a war with Ukraine. Nepal had voted against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it continues to engage with Moscow diplomatically. Though engagement with Nepal is not going to contribute significantly for Russia to withstand the Western sanctions, Moscow has nevertheless stepped up its engagement with Nepal. Experts say this may be due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location. Nepal’s Ambassador to Russia Milan Tuladhar says Moscow’s renewed interests to step up engagement with Nepal must be seen as an opportunity. Russia has shown interest in providing financial assistance to construct roads in Pokhara and increasing the education quota for Nepali students from the current 18 to 150-200, according to the document. Direct deliveries of oil products, direct air flight between Kathmandu and Moscow, delivery of Russian helicopters, construction of the Russian Buddhist temple in Lumbini and direct investment from Russia are other areas that Russia has proposed Nepal. If Nepal makes a formal request, according to Tuladhar, Russia is also willing to provide fertilizer to Nepal. Almost every year, Nepali farmers face a shortage of chemical fertilizer for their crops. Ambassador Tuladhar says Russia can address this chronic problem. Russia has also offered to resume direct flights between the cities of two countries to enhance trade and tourism. If there is a direct flight, the number of Russian tourists will substantially increase, says Tuladhar. Geopolitical analyst Chandra Dev Bhatt says Nepal-Russia relationship has a long history and cordial relationship since the Cold War era.  Now, Russia is returning to South Asia after 30 years, engaging with all countries primarily focusing on new geopolitical flashpoints including Kathmandu, he adds. Amid pressure from Western countries to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chairman of National Assembly Timalsina visited Russia in April. It was the first high-level visit from Kathmandu to Moscow after the Russia-Ukraine war, and first parliamentary delegation visit to Russia after 2016. During the visit, Timalsina also extended an invitation to Russian lawmakers to visit Kathmandu. In an interview with Russian news agency TAAS, Timilsina said he was expecting to host a high-level visit this year by Russian lawmakers Valentia Matviyenko, Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the Federation Council (upper house of parliament), and Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house State Duma. Timalsena added that Kathmandu was expecting that the visit would help boost Nepal-Russia trade. Khadka KC, professor of international relations, says Russia of late Russia has adopted an appeasement policy regarding Nepal. By making some offers, he adds it seems that Russia is trying to seek Nepal’s support in the international forum.  Russian proposal

•         Fertilizer
•         Direct flights between Moscow and Kathmandu
•         Russian helicopters
•         High-level visits
•         People-to-people engagement
•         Increase of scholarship quota
•         Cooperation in international platforms