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This is the season of political parties’ general convention (GC). Both big and fringe ones are holding their conventions to elect new leaderships in the coming weeks. With the number of Covid-19 cases dwindling, parties are now rushing.

The sentiment both in and outside these parties is that incumbent leaders must go and new ones with new vigor and dynamism should replace them. Unfortunately, as parties are approaching their respective conventions, such sentiments are being sidelined. Almost the same set of leaders who have been at the helm of parties as well as successive governments after 1990 are set to continue for the next five years.  Despite their high-sounding rhetoric, youth leaders are not contesting party presidency.

Take the main opposition CPN-UML whose convention is to take place in Chitwan from November 26-28. Party leaders and cadres are projecting KP Oli (69) as an indispensable leader for the next five years, and he is likely to be elected unopposed.

Candidacy by some second-rung leaders cannot be ruled out but Oli is sure to win and lead the party for the next five years, says UML leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta. After the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction formed a separate breakaway party, Oli found himself in a position to monopolize the UML.

In Nepal Congress, there is a strong sentiment that Deuba must go due to his age and inability to lead. Additionally, there are voices that as Deuba (75) has become prime minister five times and also got to lead the party, he should pave the way for someone else. Efforts are underway to arrive at a common anti-establishment candidate to weaken and defeat Deuba. But he is still likely to hang on.

Even if Deuba goes, youth leaders are unlikely to come to the helm. After Deuba, the likes of Ram Chandra Poudel, Shekhar Koirala and Prakash Man Singh, all fast-aging leaders, are in a race for party presidency. Says political analyst Puranjan Acharya, Shekhar Koirala could emerge as a formidable challenger to Deuba this time if anti-establishment factions come together. “Shekhar has gained ground in selection of general convention representatives. But his triumph depends on Ram Chandra Poudel and others responding to him.”

Also read: Smaller coalition partners want electoral alliance. Not so much Nepali Congress 

Chances are high of Deuba winning the presidency again due to his strong hold on the organization. He is in a position to dispense favors as prime minister and the anti-establishment faction remains fragmented. So come NC convention on December 10-12 in Kathmandu, Deuba could again rule the roost. Youths are unlikely to ascend to the top from this convention. “Some youths are likely to be elected office bearers but the same old leaders would continue to dominate the party,” says Acharya.

CPN (Maoist Center) is preparing to fulfill its own constitutional obligation of five-yearly general convention. Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (66), who has been at the helm of the party for three years, has clearly said that he will not retire. And no party leader will dare to file candidacy against Dahal.

Even in fringe parties, leadership change is unlikely. CPN (ML) led by CP Mainali held its General Convention in Chitwan, once again electing him party general secretary, a position he has been occupying since the 1970s.

CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal (68) is also preparing to hold its convention, even though exact dates are yet to be finalized. As it is a new party and there are no other towering political figures, Nepal is likely to lead the party himself for the next five years.

As Rastriya Prajatantra Party led by Kamal Thapa (66) prepares to hold its own general convention in Kathmandu on November 13-16, there are demands of leadership change, which, again, is not happening given Thapa’s stranglehold on party machinery.  

All parties are holding their general conventions in the run-up to the three-tier elections, which will probably take place in 2022. And all those vying for party presidency either close to or above 70. The younger leaders will continue to have to wait for their turn, at least for the next half-a-decade.

How will the US-Nepal relations be affected if Nepal rejects the MCC compact? This query was put to Fatema Z Sumar, vice-president of the Department of (MCC) Compact Operation, who visited Nepal in September this year to press Nepali leaders for the compact’s early parliamentary ratification.  

At the press meet, she sounded confident that bilateral relations would remain cordial with or without the MCC but said she was still optimistic about early ratification. Highlighting the age-old bilateral relations, she said: “The two countries have shared a special bond for more than 70 years. This partnership will endure long before and after the MCC… The MCC is one offer from the American people to grow the economy here.”

It has been over four years since the MCC compact was signed between the two countries but parliamentary ratification, a prerequisite for its implementation, is still in limbo. Though she did not set a deadline, she said, “It’s high time Nepal ratified the compact,” adding, “How long can we afford to wait [for it] to be endorsed?” As per the agreement, the compact should have come into force in 2019.

According to experts and people familiar with the MCC, even though bilateral relations may not suffer drastically over the compact’s failure, such an outcome will have consequences. As Sumer suggested, there is growing impatience on the American side over the delay. Issuing a press statement on October 29, the MCC headquarters again reiterated: “The delays to ratification jeopardize the critical and timely support this $500 million grant would provide to help more than 23 million Nepalis access reliable energy and safer roads. The decision whether to move forward with the compact now rests with Nepal.”

Similarly, Deputy CEO of MCC Alexia Latortue met PM Deuba on the sidelines of the C0P26 summit. Deuba asked Alexia to wait for some time for the MCC endorsement. On his return to Kathmandu, Deuba for the first time disclosed that he and Pushpa Kamal Dahal had both committed to the compact's endorsement. Dahal accepted sending a letter to the US to that effect but then added that he would still like to see the compact’s amendment before its parliamentary endorsement.

Mrigendra Bahadur Karki, Executive Director at the Center for Nepal and Asian Studies (CNAS), points out possible implications of the grant’s rejection. Karki says it will mark a great setback to the old bilateral partnership. If the MCC is snubbed, Nepal’s larger policy of diversifying its trade and economy beyond two neighbors will be as well. “Such a strategic failure will certainly have consequences,” he cautions.

Some economists also fear a spoiling of the environment for foreign investment, as investors think twice before coming to a country where development projects are excessively politicized.  

Uma Shankar Prasad, an Associate Professor at the Central Department of Economics, TU, who is also a member of the National Planning Commission, however, does not subscribe to such views. “There has been an exaggerated debate in Nepal over the MCC,” he says. “I don’t think withdrawal of the MCC’s support, which is not a big amount, will have much of an impact on our overall investment climate.”

The MCC’s withdrawal may also have spillover effects on Nepal’s equation with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since signing a framework agreement in 2017, there has been a one-sided debate—that Nepal should unconditionally select projects under the no-strings-attached BRI. Karki says if the compact is canceled due to growing political polarization, it will trigger a debate on why the country should accept BRI and not the MCC. “In that case, it could be difficult to move ahead with the BRI as well, which is not good for Nepal,” he says.

China has not objected to the MCC projects in Nepal but reports from Chinese official media and think-thanks do suggest that the northern neighbor would like Nepal to maintain a distance from the MCC, which it sees as a part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy aimed at containing China. Now, there is little progress on both the MCC compact and as well as the BRI projects. Says Former Nepali Ambassador to the UK and US Suresh Chalise, the MCC and the BRI are inter-related and if one moves ahead the other one will as well.

But the chances of the compact’s ratification before the elections are slim as there are divergent views even inside the ruling coalition. Though Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba wants the parliament to endorse the compact, two other senior leaders in the coalition, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, are in favor of its endorsement only after requisite amendments.

Chalise says the compact’s implementation could pave the way for trilateral cooperation among Nepal, India, and Bangladesh on hydropower. His understanding is that India, which prefers bilateral cooperation with its neighbors, has agreed to trilateral cooperation only because the US is the third party. “We are ramping up electricity production and we need good transmission lines to sell electricity in the Indian and Bangladeshi markets. If the transmission line under the MCC is not built, we will suffer because there is a huge investment in the hydropower sector,” he says.

Indeed, a senior bureaucrat requesting anonymity says initially India was not in favor of building the Butwal-Gorkhapur transmission line and agreed to it only after the Americans entered the picture.

Also read: What if… the 2015 constitution had been delayed?

Some experts are of the view that as America has huge influence in multinational financial institutions, there could be some implications for Nepal there as well. The US won’t go to the extent of punishing Nepal even if it rejects the compact, says Chaise. “But America is a superpower. If it remains indifferent or silent on Nepal’s agenda in the international forum—that will most certainly affect us. On the other hand, if we gain its trust, it could speak in our favor.”  

According to him, the US-Nepal bilateral relationship is far more important than the MCC compact or any other project.

Domestically, if the compact is rejected, the CPN (Maoist) and other fringe communist parties that are continuously opposing it are likely to gain from it electorally.  The compact’s rejection would also signal the prevailing of communist narrative on Nepal’s foreign policy.

Expert opinion

What if MCC is not approved?

Chandra Dev Bhatt

In the past three-plus decades, interaction between Nepal and the US has increased to the extent that it has trickled down seamlessly to people-to-people level. Today many of our youths interact more with the US than the Nepali state itself, for multiple reasons. The most important is the failure to create opportunities for the educated youths and others within the country and in the neighborhood. Both ‘pull’ and ‘push’ factors have forced people to go outside and the US has become their number one destination.

The pull and push factors have created confusion as to how the state should craft its foreign policy. Whether it should follow societal needs or retain its traditional approach. The situation has become complicated with the MCC row. There are those who are in its favor. Others strongly oppose it yet would still like to benefit from other opportunities that America offers.

For many Nepalis, the US is increasingly becoming a second home. If the MCC Compact does not make it through, this definitely will have consequences even at the people-to-people level.

America, over time, has become an indispensable neighbor, albeit one with which we do not share our borders. If the Chinese and Indians are interacting with the US on multiple levels, why should not Nepal?

Will the incumbent coalition government remain intact till elections? All coalition partners confidently say, yes, it will. Are there any chances of an electoral alliance among coalition partners? On this question, coalition partners are not so sure. Sustainability of the incumbent government and a possible electoral alliance are two entirely different issues but often seen together.  

Being in the same government does not mean an automatic electoral alliance. For instance, in 2017, there was a coalition government of Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN (Maoist) but the latter still forged an electoral alliance with then opposition CPN-UML, in what came to be popularly known as the left alliance.

Now, it is an open secret that CPN (Maoist) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal wants an electoral alliance with Congress, like he did with KP Oli on the eve of previous elections. Likewise, Madhav Kumar Nepal, chairman of Nepal Communist Party (Unified Socialist), another ruling party, is ready for an alliance with Dahal but the latter believes that will be insufficient to win elections given the formidable strengths of Congress and UML. As the Maoists are weak in terms of organization and popular votes, Dahal has calculated that the party could face a drubbing without an electoral alliance.

Congress, mainly Prime Minister and Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, has not spoken publicly about the possibility of an alliance with coalition partners. Party leaders say the issue is likely to be discussed in the party’s upcoming general convention. Says Nain Singh Mahar, a youth leader close to Deuba, NC could consider an alliance even though it is capable of winning elections on its own.

“Looking at things from the perspective of Congress, there is no need for an electoral alliance but if there is a guarantee of a long-term alliance, we could think about it,” says Mahar. For that, according to Mahar, Maoist chair Dahal must be ready to revisit his 2017 unceremonious turnaround and come up with a credible framework to ensure that there will be no similar break-up. Before the previous round of elections, Dahal had secretly negotiated a seat-sharing arrangement with UML Chairman Oli while he was still in a coalition government with Congress.  

Also read: Delhi undecided as Deuba seeks its blessings 

In the 2017 local elections, Congress had supported Renu Dahal for the post of mayor in Bharatpur sub-metropolitan city. With strong NC backing, Renu won as well. But this was followed by a strong backlash inside the Congress party, mainly after Dahal went on to align with UML.

Ideological differences also make it difficult for Congress to forge an electoral alliance with communist forces. Similarly, the Maoists have a history of violence, and local-level NC cadres are uncomfortable aligning with such a force. The long list of prospective NC candidates also makes it hard for the party to agree on a seat-sharing formula with another party. NC leaders are of the view that the party is capable of winning elections on its own. This is why leaders like Gagan Thapa and Arjun Narsingh KC have completely ruled out any kind of electoral alliance.  

“NC candidates are ready to lose but they do not want an alliance with other parties as they believe such an alliance will weaken their constituency,” says an NC leader requesting anonymity.

What could Dahal do if the NC rejects such an alliance? Will he again align with Oli? Given the growing animosity between Dahal and Oli, they are unlikely to forge an electoral alliance this time. But it cannot be ruled out because if there is no electoral alliance among big parties, the NC is likely to gain a lot. In that scenario, despite their differences, Oli, Dahal, and Nepal could come together to check the Congress party.

That is why PM Deuba and NC leaders want early elections. They believe animosity among communist parties will die down with time and they could again come together. China, which played a vital role in uniting UML and Maoists in 2017, is advising communist forces to come together this time as well. Though Dahal and Oli don’t see eye to eye, many second-rung UML leaders are still in favor of unity between communist forces in order to forge a powerful communist party.

Also read: Playing Squid Game in Nepal

Maoist leader Dev Prasad Gurung says it would be premature to talk of electoral alliance. The spirit is that the incumbent five-party alliance should be continued till elections, says Gurung. “Once the elections are announced, there will be discussions among the coalition partners on the possibility of an electoral alliance,” he says.

Similarly, the Nepal-led party is also angling for an electoral alliance. It is almost a given that there will be an electoral alliance between Nepal’s and Dahal’s parties as well as with other fringe communist parties. The Nepal-led party appears weak as influential second-rung UML leaders decided to remain with the mother party; of the elected UML representatives, only around 10 percent joined Nepal’s new party. So, for Dahal, even the support of the Nepal faction and other fringe parties is not sufficient to win the elections.

NCP (Unified Socialist) Central Committee member Shankar Bhandari is not hopeful of a large electoral alliance with Nepal Congress. He is of the view that there could rather be an alliance among his party, the Maoist party, the Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav, and other fringe communist outfits. “But there will be some seat-sharing with NC to ensure the victory of top coalition leaders,” he says. Nepal has already started consultations with left parties.

Political analyst Bishnu Dahal subscribes to Bhandari’s views. The NC could field weak candidates in the constituencies of Nepal, Dahal, or other senior leaders to ensure their victory. But the chances of an out-and-out electoral alliance are slim, says the analyst. “There is little chemistry between Maoist and Congress cadres at grass-roots level, which was evident when NC decided to support Renu Dahal in the 2017 elections,” he says. “NC and communist parties see each other as class enemies and their relations at the grass-roots level are poor. This means a larger poll alliance may not be feasible but there can still be some kind of collaboration to keep the coalition intact.” 

The terms of the federal parliament, provincial assemblies, as well as the local governments expire next year. Growing debates in political circles on a possible ‘electoral alliance’ and ‘early elections’ of the House of Representatives (HoR) show that parties are already in an election-mode. They have started nationwide campaigns to strengthen their organizations, targeting the upcoming three-tier elections.

If things go as planned, local elections will take place first, to be followed by provincial and federal elections. Though the exact dates are yet to be finalized, sooner or later, the country will head to elections. Here is an explainer on how local, provincial and federal elections will take place.

Who declares the date of local-level elections?

As per Local Election Act 2017, the government is mandated to announce the date for local elections in consultation with the Election Commission. The government can choose to hold elections in multiple phases if they cannot be held in a single phase. At the local level, the first-past-the-post (FPTP) election model is applied for holding elections.  

How long is the tenure of local elected bodies?

The tenure of the village and municipal assemblies is five years. Article 225 of the constitution says: “The term of a Village Assembly and a Municipal Assembly shall be of five years from the date of the election. Another Village Assembly and Municipal Assembly shall be elected not later than six months of the expiration of such a term.”

The first local elections under the new constitution were conducted in 2017 in three phases (on May 14, June 28, and September 18). According to election experts, if there are to be multi-phase elections, the date for the first phase would determine the tenure of local bodies. So, ideally, the elections for local governments must take place within May-June next year. Even if parties choose to hold local level elections six months after their current term expires, local elections must take place by next August at the latest.

What about elections of provincial assemblies?

The provincial assemblies are unicameral and the numbers of provincial lawmakers vary from province to province. Unless dissolved earlier pursuant to the constitution, the term of the provincial assemblies is five years. Their term may be extended for a period not exceeding one year in cases where a proclamation or order of the state of emergency is in effect. As provincial assembly elections were held simultaneously with the federal elections in 2017, their tenure also expires in 2022. Under the FPTP component, twice as many members are elected to provincial assemblies as are elected to the federal House of Representative. 60 percent provincial assembly seats are filled through FPTP elections and 40 percent through PR elections. 

Also read: Delhi undecided as Deuba seeks its blessings 

And when are the federal parliament elections?

The House of Representatives and the National Assembly make up the Federal Parliament. On the term of the HoR, Article 85 of the constitution says, “Unless dissolved earlier, the term of the House of Representatives shall be of five years.” The previous federal and provincial elections took place in two phases in November and December 2017. So, the tenure of the incumbent parliament will be valid till December 2022, if the parliament is not dissolved earlier. After the completion of the five-year term, the federal parliament will get dissolved. As the constitution has not envisioned a parliamentary vacuum of over six months, elections for the federal parliament will have to take place within six months of December 2022.

Who declares the date for elections to the federal House of Representatives?

The government announces the date of the elections to the House of Representation in consultation with the Election Commission. The government can hold elections in multiple phases citing logistical and security issues. But the government must consult the commission before announcing federal elections.

What about the National Assembly?

The National Assembly is a permanent House that consists of 59 members, each with a six-year term. The term of office of one-third of the members of the National Assembly expires every two years. The election of NA will take place after the elections of local, provincial, and federal levels.

Are there any chances that elections to the parliament, provincial and local governments will take place simultaneously?

There is an ongoing debate on the possibility of holding simultaneous elections. However, parties are yet to begin deliberation over such a proposal. To conduct simultaneous elections, the law needs to be changed. For one, simultaneous elections will reduce electoral costs. Former Election Commission Commissioner Dolakh Bahadur Gurung says simultaneous elections are a good idea if all parties are on the same page. Towards this end, Gurung says legal arrangements must be accompanied by a huge exercise in arranging logistics.

Also read: Nepal’s decennial census needs a rethink

Should the Election Commission be allowed to announce the date of elections?

Right now only the government holds the right to announce the dates for elections. For a long time, the Election Commission has been making a case for its right to do so. According to former commissioner Gurung, giving the commission such a mandate will ensure timely elections. As the government has the right to announce dates, the ruling parties right now tend to declare elections as per their convenience.

Are there any chances of a change in our electoral system?

In the last election, a mixed electoral system—first-past-the-post and proportional representation (PR)—was adopted. But debate has already begun about changing it. Ruling coalition partner CPN (Maoist) has proposed a completely proportional election system. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been saying that elections are becoming too costly and a complete PR system is the only solution. The Maoist party also fears losing elections if the FPTP component is high. In any case, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML are unlikely to accept such a proposal.

Are there any chances of early elections?

There are divergent views among political parties on early elections. The main opposition CPN-UML is in favor because it wants to justify KP Oli’s House dissolution and call for elections.

Inside Nepali Congress, there are strong voices in favor of early elections for the federal parliament. NC leaders believe that if local elections are held first, federal elections could be affected because of the ensuing factional feuds and chances of intra-party betrayal. Local-level leaders who lose elections are unlikely to support rival-faction candidates in federal elections. However, coalition partners CPN (Maoist) and CPN (Unified Samajwadi) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal are against early elections as they are both in party-building phase. 

In the first week of October, a Nepali Congress team led by former foreign minister Prakash Sharan Mahat visited New Delhi at the invitation of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Udaya Shumsher Rana and Ajaya Kumar Chaurasiya were the other two team members. 

For public consumption, the visit was said to be a part of an ongoing party-to-party exchange between the NC and the BJP. But according to sources, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba had dispatched the trio to explain to the Indian establishment his plan to contest elections for a second term as party president. 

The three leaders visiting India are close confidants of PM Deuba. The visiting team didn’t have anyone from the rival factions of the Nepali Congress. Deuba did not discuss with other leaders the purpose of the visit either.  

According to Chaurasiya, the talks with Indian leaders and officials focused on two broad areas: strengthening government-to-government ties, and increasing interactions/exchanges between the NC and the BJP. “We conveyed PM Deuba’s message to the Indian leaders that he wants to maintain good rapport with the Indian government and the BJP,” Chaurasiya told ApEx. “The Indian side also conveyed its message that the government led by Narendra Modi wants to build a good relationship with the government as well as PM Deuba, who is also the party president.” 

A senior Congress leader in frequent touch with the Indian establishment says NC leaders considered close to India have deserted the Deuba camp and this has added to his worries ahead of the party elections. “PM Deuba wants to secure India’s support for his candidacy, but this time India has remained mum and not supported any specific leader,” says the leader requesting anonymity. He says this time India is unlikely to throw its weight behind any candidate. It is also not clear whether the Indian bureaucracy and the BJP are on the same page on how to approach the NC’s convention and a possible change in leadership. 

Also read: How and when will the three-tier elections be held?

Bimalendra Nidhi, a long-time confidant of Deuba, has announced plans to contest the party presidency. Shekhar Koirala, who maintains good rapport with the Indian leadership, is also in the fray. This creates additional challenges for Deuba. 

NC leaders say neither internal party dynamics nor the external environment is in Deuba’s favor this time, and he is desperate to have New Delhi’s support. During their visit, the NC team met senior BJP leaders, Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath. According to the Congress leader, the issue of NC general convention also figured during these meetings. 

In the third week of August, BJP foreign affairs department chief Vijay Chauthaiwale had visited Kathmandu at Mahat’s invitation. He met PM Deuba and other senior leaders. Ever since the formation of the Deuba government, a team of NC leaders has been relentlessly working to mend ties with New Delhi through engagements with the bureaucracy as well as members of the ruling BJP.    

Not only those close to Deuba, others such as Bimalendra Nidhi, Shashank Koirala, Shekhar Koirala, and Prakash Man Singh have also tossed their hats in the ring in the race for party presidency. 

This week Shashank Koirala visited Bombay and New Delhi. Koirala met some BJP leaders to seek their advice and support for his bid. “Though senior leader Ram Chandra Poudel has announced his candidacy for the presidency, it is likely to boil down to a Deuba vs Koirala [Shekhar or Shashank] fight,” says another Congress leader, also requesting anonymity.  

Arun Subedi, a political and foreign policy expert, says the traditional relationship between the two countries means the Indian factor is always influential inside the NC, especially during the general convention. Whatever NC leaders may say for public consumption, all leadership aspirants secretly seek India’s support, Subdei adds, PM Deuba being no exception. 

Also read: Nepal’s decennial census needs a rethink

Deuba is equally worried about India’s reluctance to roll out the red carpet for him in New Delhi. In the past, India used to invite the Nepali PM as soon as he took charge. But this time, India is yet to send a formal invite. The delay in the visit has been partially attributed to NC’s internal political mess.

This time, Deuba’s first foreign visit is to Scotland to take part in COP26, where he is  expected to meet his Indian counterpart Modi on the sidelines of the conference. Deuba is also likely to pay an official visit to India after returning from Glasgow. 

Though the meetings of bilateral mechanisms between the two countries are taking place regularly and some connectivity projects are making progress, Deuba is not confident that New Delhi is fully backing his government. 

In June this year, in a veiled reference to India, five former prime ministers including Deuba had cautioned against external influence in the country’s internal affairs. Party leaders say it was Deuba’s mistake to join forces with four prime ministers to issue the statement, which irked India. New Delhi is reportedly unhappy with Deuba over some issues. 

Analyst Subedi’s understanding is that an environment of trust is yet to be established between the Deuba-led government and India. “Bureaucratic-level engagements don’t produce sustainable relations. Deuba doesn’t have any foreign affairs advisors to take matters beyond the bureaucracy,” Subedi says. “The foreign ministers have been unable to mend and maintain ties with India. This failure to create an environment of trust is good neither for Nepal nor India.” 

In his recent book Political Changes in Nepal and Bhutan (Emerging Trends in Foreign Policy in Post 2008 Period), Nihar R Nayak, a research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, observes: “Even after 70 years of diplomatic history, regime security has remained a key determinant of Nepal’s foreign policy. The new governments in Kathmandu give priority to win the goodwill of neighboring countries, especially India.” 

Nepal’s decennial census has been taking place since 1911, with 2021 marking the 12th one. The census should have been begun in June this year but was delayed by a few months due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The Central Bureau of Statics (CBS) kicked off the national population census program in the second week of September. In the first phase, it completed enlisting households, and the second phase aimed at collecting population data door-to-door will commence on November 11. It will take at least another six months to process the final census data, according to CBS officials.

Organizing a census every 10 years is an international practice, and prescribed both by the United Nations and the national constitution. Article 281 of the constitution says: “The Government of Nepal shall make appraisal and review of the implementation of special rights of the women and Dalit community and impacts thereof, based on human development index, concurrently with a national census to be held in every 10 years.”

As the 2021 census is underway, there are deliberations among policy experts and government officials that time may be ripe for a reform of the current census system.

Many countries are switching to alternatives, which have also been recognized by the United Nations. In Nepal’s context, there haven’t been any such initiations. Even within the current decennial census, modern technology could be used to make data-collection more efficient and effective. Senior CBS officials concede that there has been little or no effort in changing the traditional system.  

As the administrative data system is mismanaged, CBS is compelled to collect all required data by preparing a long list of questions.

Also read: Burdened with books

Hem Raj Regmi, deputy director general at CBS, terms Nepal’s census system ‘unscientific’ and ‘overburdened’. “In other countries, hardly 15-20 questions are asked during the census, but we have prepared 80 questions,” he says. “This is because our permanent administrative bodies don’t have any organized data on their respective areas.”

Experts and officials say the government ought to work on making the current census system more efficient and technology-friendly. At the same time, the government should prepare for an alternative.

Why switch?

As the country has already adopted a three-tier governance system, local governments which enjoy both resources and rights, according to experts, should be empowered to collect data regularly. The current untidy process which takes months to produce the final result should be changed. As things stand, provincial and local governments are dependent on the CBS to get the data of their area.  

The current method of the census is also costly. According to the CBS, the 2021 census will cost over Rs 4 billion, an increase of 233 percent compared to the previous one in 2011. More than 70 percent of the budget would be spent on salaries and perks of census staff as they need to reach an estimated seven million households across the country. According to Regmi, the expenditure is likely to exceed the given budget.

Rudra Suwal, senior economist and former deputy director general at CBS, says census costs will further increase in coming decades, and thus the government should start searching for options.

Planners, policymakers, political parties, and other stakeholders need up-to-date data to formulate and execute policies and plans. Another vital use of census data is while delineating electoral constituencies based on geography and population. The data from the 2011 census is still being used, and the new data being collected now will be used at least until 2032.

Also read: Systemic dysfunction

The current data collection process is time-consuming and there are reliability issues as well. During the long process (from filling of forms to analyzing data), errors could find their way into the system as all documents are hand-written, says Suwal. (Albeit, from this time, CBS staff have started using tablet computers in a few districts.) Moreover, to collect household data, surveyors have to reach every door, and even then they may not find anyone home.

Right time

As the country has already adopted a federal system and provincial and local governments are in place, experts suggest local governments conduct census on a daily basis.

Such a process has already been recognized by the UN, and some countries are practicing it, says Suwal.  “Every day, we get updated information on the population, which is known as vital registration. Norway and Denmark don’t conduct any census as their vital registrations serve the purpose.”

“Now that internet and technology are also widely available in Nepal, we too can shift to vital registration,” Suwal adds. To fully switch to vital registrations, according to officials, the government’s regular administrative bodies must be empowered to collect the data of their respective areas.

For example, the Ministry of Land Reform and Management maintains data on women’s land ownership, but the CBS is also collecting such data through the census. “The current census is an onerous and costly affair. But before choosing an alternative system we need to develop a system of collecting data from our administrative bodies at all three levels of government,” says Regmi.

According to him, more and more categories of data are being collected during the census to fulfill Nepal’s international obligations, but there has been little progress in making the process more efficient. 

Usually, the monsoon enters Nepal in the first week of June and exits the country on 23 September. But this year, it decided to stay a little longer, bringing great volumes of water, and causing flood and landslides everywhere. Although the rains have let up a bit in the past few days, heavy downpour had started this year even before the monsoon’s arrival, with some predictable consequences.

Government data suggest, this year has witnessed highest casualties in a decade. According to Home Ministry, between 28 September 2019 and 28 September 2020, altogether 292 people have died in landslides. In the past month (28 August to 28 September), 54 people died. In one week (22 September to 28 September), 16 people perished; dozens are still missing.

Parbat, Palpa, Gulmi, Sindhupalchowk, Myagdi, Lamjung, Jhapa, Dhading, Tanahu, and Gorkha, are traditionally the most landslide-prone districts of Nepal. This is in addition to 14 districts surrounding Kathmandu valley that were badly shaken by the 2015 earthquakes.

Nepal has always been one of the most landslide-prone countries in Asia. “Between 1950 and 2009, the frequency of fatal landslides was highest in China, followed by Indonesia, India, the Philippines, Japan, Pakistan and Nepal,” says a 2011 report by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. “These seven countries accounted for 87 percent of the 17,830 landslide-related fatalities reported in Asia between 1950 and 2009, and 82 percent of the 267 reported landslides.” Even so, the frequency of landslides in Nepal has been constantly increasing.

Subodh Dhakal, Assistant Professor of Geology at Tribhuwan University, says many factors led to greater frequency of landslides mainly in hilly and mountainous regions. “Nepal is in the middle of the Himalayan region that is still in the making. Our landform is evolving so it is always vulnerable to landslides”. Moreover, adds Dhakal, our current development model does not factor in geological engineering and scientific surveys. Moreover, climate change is also causing more frequent and intense rainfall, triggering landslides in high hills and mountains of Asia.

Haphazard road construction

Road-construction is considered a major development indicator in rural areas of Nepal. Yet local road networks are cut haphazardly into steep hillsides with next to no planning, resulting in landslides, with massive amounts of soil being washed into rivers. Then there are the dozers. Government agencies and contractors make use of dozers to cut roads in hilly areas. This loosens the soil, resulting in dry landslides even in the winter.

In his 2019 article in The Himalayan Times titled ‘The road to disaster: Dozer use causing landslides’, Dane Carlson, a landscape designer and researcher says: “Dozer roads are known to contribute to or directly cause landslides. Remote communities relying on already precarious access to infrastructure are further isolated and endangered. Dozer road building doesn’t just damage the landscape in the short-term, it makes those who rely on it in the long-term more vulnerable.” He adds that the rush to build new roads is causing severe flooding in the Tarai and significant destruction of forest cover, ecosystems and productive land across the country.

In many districts, big constructions like hydro projects have resulted in slippery land. Environmentalist Prabhu Budathoki says that if the current construction model is given continuity, not only will there be more landslides but the fertile land of hilly region will also be destroyed, seriously affecting agricultural productivity. Experts say the number of landslides in Nepal began to tick up after 1994 when the central government increased development budget for local bodies.

These local bodies in turn started carving roads without any study. Now, with the country adopting a federal structure, even more resources have been transferred to local governments, resulting in even more haphazard construction. Similarly, the federal government is building highways in various parts of the country without considering their environmental impact. Already, highway areas are prone to disasters.

Earthquake and landslides

Experts say the two-dozen districts that were badly shaken by the 2015 earthquake are all vulnerable to landslides. Sindhupalchowk district, one of the worst hit by the 2015 earthquake, has seen the most landslides in the past couple of years. Even after five years, repeated aftershocks are still shaking high hills. Till September 26 this year, about 73 people were killed and 39 went still missing in some of the worst landslide in Sindhupalchowk.

The government had declared Sindhupalchok a disaster-hit district. Similarly, compared to other districts, Sindhupalchowk always sees more rainfall. Environmentalist Budhathoki says the 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks are partly responsible for more landslides in some districts. “The earthquake has shaken the land so badly, even a small rainfall can result in landslides,” says Budathoki. Experts say it will take several years to settle the land loosened by big earthquakes.

Relocation of vulnerable communities

Landslides cannot be fully prevented but there are ways to secure people’s lives against them. One way is identifying and relocating human settlements in hilly and mountainous areas vulnerable to landslides. After the 2015 earthquake, there was much talk of relocating vulnerable communities but there has been little progress. A Nepal Reconstruction Authority team had suggested relocation of vulnerable settlements but to no avail. Its study had identified around 11,000 houses in 26 earthquake-affected districts for relocation.

According to Manohar Ghimire, NRA Deputy Spokesperson, an extra Rs 200,000 will be provided to the families that want to buy new land to relocate. But the NRA only works in quake-affected districts. The government does not have nation-wide data on vulnerable human settlements. Nor is resettlement easy even if was an option for everyone. People are emotionally attached to their ancestral lands; nor can the government guarantee livelihood in the new place.

Effects of climate change

Various reports have shown that climate change is altering rainfall patterns, resulting in extreme rains in certain locations. Global warming has increased the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall. Nepal has also witnessed unexpected rainfall in certain localities. For instance, 11 people were killed when landslides triggered by incessant rains buried houses in Gulmi district this year in the third week of July. Locals said rainfall in the area was unprecedented.

“The pattern of water-induced natural disasters this year is entirely different to previous years. There is less flooding in Tarai area but the number of landslides in hilly districts has significantly increased,” says environmentalist Prabhu Budathoki. He says climate change has changed rainfall patterns, causing heavy rains in certain pockets.

Flawed environment assessment

Another reason behind increased landslides is the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of development projects. As per the law, all development projects should undertake EIA but this is mostly seen as a ritual by government agencies. If the EIA shows huge environmental impact of a project, it should be relocated. If trees are to be felled, there should be compensatory plantation. “But we are building roads and undertaking other development works without any engineering, while the EIA reports are neglected,” says Budathoki.  “We will ruin our country if we do not pay more attention to sustainable development.”

Rescue and rehabilitation after landslides are also sluggish. When there is a landslide, ministers from both center and provincial levels rush to inspect the site. But when it comes to providing those affected with relief material, there is no urgency. For long there was no independent mechanism dealing with natural disasters. Last year, the federal government set up the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority. Yet its manpower and mechanisms are centralized. Provincials and local governments are yet to be adequately equipped to deal with natural disasters.

“On the one hand, our government is not serious on environmental assessment, and on the other, we don’t have expertise to ensure sustainability while launching development projects,” says Budathoki. Experts say landslides could be more frequent as hundreds of national and local development projects are now being undertaken without any homework. The authority is now in the process of identifying vulnerable human settlements.

Dhakal says local governments lack geological engineering expertise while implementing development projects. The constitution has granted to the local governments rights and resources to undertake development projects but there is little oversight. Only a geological engineer, Dhakal adds, can understand and identify vulnerable areas prone to landslides.

Recent history of big slides in Nepal

Jure landslide: The Sindupalchowk landslide on 2 August 2014 killed 156 people and dammed the Sunkoshi River. It also blocked the Araniko Highway.

Taplejung debris flow: The 10 June 2015 event killed 53 people, and badly affected airport, district headquarters, and agricultural lands.

Ramche Landslide: The 14 August 2003 nighttime slide took 23 lives, and blocked highway.

Baglung landslide: The landslide on 2 September 2020 at Lankuribot in Dhorpatan Municipality Ward No. 9, Baglung district, killed 14 people, while dozens went missing.

Lidi landslide: Happened on 14 August 2020 in Lidi, Sindhupalchowk district, killing 37 people with some missing. Around 121 households were displaced.

Melamchi landslide: On 3 August 2020 in Gaurabagar in Ward 11 of Melamchi Municipality, Sindhupalchok district, killing eight and injuring one.

Ghumthang landslide: On 13 September 2020 in Ghumthang in Bahrabise Municipality Ward No 7, Sindhupalchok district. Around 11 people were killed and 20 went missing.

Tamad landslide: On 24 September 2020 in Tamadi in Waling Municipality Ward No 14 in Syangja district. It took nine lives.

Nepal has been carrying out decennial population census since 1911, with the next one, the country’s 12^th, due in June 2021. The body mandated to conduct it is the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), a government agency under the National Planning Commission. Bureau officials say they are working on war-footing to make the census possible, yet it’s a tough task in the middle of a pandemic. And will the census also include Kalapani? Kamal Dev Bhattarai spoke to Rudra Suwal, senior economist and former CBS Deputy Director General. 

What is the importance of census?

There are multiple dimensions to and benefits of census. First, census is a constitutional obligation as it is on the basis of population that electoral constituencies and number of electoral candidates are fixed. Second, the census provides a complete picture of the country’s socio-economic and statistical status. Census is the only way to get a picture of each and every household and reflects the country’s social and economic conditions.

Third, census is a key guiding document for other sectoral research, study, and analysis. Fourth, census serves as a key document for policy and programs. Fifth, it is important for comparative evaluation of social, economic and other conditions between different countries.

How has Covid-19 affected our census preparations?

As per my knowledge, all activities are on schedule. The CBS has completed a pilot census. Even if one activity is interrupted the entire process will be affected. But if we don’t have more of the kind of strict lockdowns we did earlier, I think the census can be completed within the stipulated timeframe.  

But another lockdown might affect our tight schedule. The key principle of census is that it has to be done at a fixed time, June of every tenth year in our case. If we miss this timeline, we cannot have a comparable data. The delay will affect future censuses. There have been instances of delay. For example, Pakistan could not hold its census for 18 years due to terrorist activities. Having a fixed time is vital for effective comparison.   

Can you give us an overview of census-taking exercise in Nepal?

Nepal started taking census in 1911, all of 110 years ago. Before that, there was the tradition of conducting census in certain areas but not in the whole country. However, the first Nepali census process that adhered to international standards and practices was started in 1952 and took two years to complete. That was the first modernized census held by adopting scientific methods.

Why is census held in every 10 years?

It is an international practice. The UN sets certain standards on how and when countries can hold census. It wants to apply the same standards across the globe and has developed set guidelines for the same purpose. We have to follow those guidelines. Nepal has also been organizing census every 10 years.

If countries do not follow the set guidelines, we cannot have comparable data. For example, we cannot compare the populations of two countries if they do not follow same census criteria. The UN, for instance, clearly defines what constitutes a family—those who live together and share a kitchen—which should be followed by all countries.

Do we have required manpower? 

Since we have been holding census for over 110 years, this is no longer a problem. That was not the case in the initial years. For example, before conducting the 1952 census, the CBS staffs had to go to India for training. Even now, the UN trains officials from all member states, and informs them about emerging issues. It trains you on developing questionnaire and analyzing data. But like I said, these days, we don’t need much training due to our long experience.

What are the concerns of the international community on the census process in Nepal?

This area falls under the jurisdiction of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Even today, the UNFPA provides Nepal with technical support when required. In the past, it even offered us financial help. But now Nepal can fund its own census.

Donor agencies and international community want to ensure that questionnaires meet international standards. Sometimes, the international community wants to focus on some specific class, community, or area. For example, LGBTI is one area of international concern. CBS also seeks feedback from international agencies on emerging issues, which is natural as well.

How inclusive is our census process?

This is an evolving process. When we talk of inclusion, we need to consider factors like gender, castes, minority groups, etc. We started collecting data on caste and ethnicity from 1990s to ensure broad representation. The latest issue, of course, is LGBTI, in line with the global trend. The basic principle of census is that the questionnaire should be simple and easily understood. It is also difficult to collect information on some sensitive issue, for instance reproductive health of women. So we avoid them. Yet our priority is to dig out as much data as possible on all issues related to social inclusion and gender.

Can you enumerate some reforms that we have initiated in the Nepali census process over the years?

This is linked to the political changes and development of the country. After 1990, we started collecting data on various castes and communities as well as on physically-challenged people. Similarly, more priority was given to people’s educational and economic status after 1990. I already mentioned one previous shift in 1952, when our census-taking became more scientific.

How has the census system of Nepal adapted to the new federal setup?

During the last census in 2011, the country was already a federal state but the three-tier governments were yet to be formed. So we did the census based on old state structure. Later, the data were converted to make them suitable for a federal structure. I don’t think there has been much change in census-taking in Nepal in recent times, save for greater emphasis on social inclusion.

How does the new constitution guide the census process?

The constitution says new census should reflect the federal structure, and datasets have to be prepared and analyzed accordingly. Similarly, we have to have comparative data on provincial and local governments. The analytical part of census will also be expanded.

How are CBS datasets made compatible to government goals?

Our census is comprehensive. We collect data on many areas and so the state can ask CBS to analyze particular areas. For example, the new government has given social security top priority. To implement its social security scheme, many types of data—for instance on the age and distribution of senior citizens—are required. The CBS can provide segregated data from center to ward level.  

What is the current status of coordination between CBS and other government agencies?

We invest a lot of time, energy and resources in carrying out census so the government must make sure it makes maximum use of hard-gathered data. There should be maximum analysis, which has not been the case traditionally. The census has rather been turned into a ritual.

Why are we so weak on the analytical part?

First, the government hardly ever tells CBS what type of data it needs for effective implementation of its policies and programs. If the state demands, CBS will be obliged to provide the required data. CBS produces many reports based on census data, and most of these reports are filled with numbers and tables and charts. If the numbers were to be interpreted and analyzed, it would be useful for maximum number of people.

How political is the census process? For instance, in the past, there have been accusations of ethnic and religious bias in census.

We hear some people say that the number of adherents of certain religion has been artificially decreased or increased. But these are baseless accusations. There could be technical glitches and human errors but the information provided by respondents are never distorted.

What about influencing of staffs deployed in data-collection?

That is not impossible but still improbable. During the previous census, there was a misinformation campaign about CBS misrepresenting the speakers of certain mother tongues. Similarly, inaccurate information was spread on Maithili and Hindi languages. Mainly in the districts that now fall in Province 2, there were attempts to politicize some issues, but they were later resolved. Such issues could reemerge during the next census so CBS should properly train its staff. Any effort to influence census must be dealt with there and then. But I don’t think this is a big issue here in Nepal.

There are demands that citizens in the Kalapani region also be included in new census.

We have already issued a new political map that clearly shows Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura as falling within Nepal. So, in this light, CBS must hold a census there. But since this is also a political issue, it is the government that should decide whether or not to do so. CBS cannot make the final call on this.

Were there any initiatives in 2011 to hold census in Kalapani area?

When we were preparing for the 2011 census, a Kalapani local came to see me. He had with him maps and documents showing the areas that had been encroached upon. He demanded that census be conducted there. I saw his documents and maps, which were genuine. After that I talked to our representatives in the National Planning Commission but got no response. I don’t think the commission forwarded this proposal to the government for consideration. Had the government directed us to do so, it would have been our duty to carry out its order. Now, there are again talks about holding census there but CBS cannot do much without a clear government directive.

What are the areas we need to improve upon to make the census process more effective?

The basic principle of census is to ensure that no one is left and no one is repeated. To do so, each designated counting area should have around 200 families, and one area should be allocated to one official to ensure collection of accurate data. Before the census is conducted, we should collect actual home addresses, which happens in the US. A comprehensive database of exact houses should be prepared.

The current process of data collection is time-consuming and there are also reliability issues. From filling forms to analyzing data, we have to work in multiple steps and there could be errors. In the coming days, we have to adopt new information technology. In some countries, filled forms are scanned and data churned out. We too must adopt high-tech. Only this will ensure maximal use of collected data.

Are there alternatives to the current census pattern held every 10 years?

We conduct census every 10 years. Once done, the figures are not updated for the next 10 years. But we can conduct daily census. Such a process has already been recognized by the UN, and some countries are already practicing it. Every day, we get updated information on the population, which is known as vital registration. Norway and Denmark conduct no census as their vital registrations serve as census. Now that internet and technology are also widely available in Nepal, we too can do vital registration. As we get real-time data with this, we will have to start following it, sooner or later.