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President Ramchandra Paudel recently paid an official visit to Germany and Switzerland, countries with which Nepal established diplomatic relations in 1958 and 1956, respectively. He also served as the keynote speaker at the ILO’s 112th International Conference. The timing of these diplomatic ties coincided with global instability and the Cold War. Nepal joined the ILO in 1966, during this period of geopolitical tension.

This visit, his first since taking office in March 2023, had been postponed due to a devastating 6.4 magnitude earthquake in November 2023. The earthquake, centered in the Jajarkot and Rukum districts of western Nepal, caused significant loss of life, injuries, and property damage. Consequently, President Paudel chose to remain in Nepal to support the affected families.

Reviving bilateral ties

High-level exchanges between Nepal and Germany and Switzerland had been absent for decades. The last significant visit from Switzerland to Nepal occurred twenty-seven years ago when President Arnold Keller paid an official visit from 9-12 Nov 1997. From Nepal’s side, late King Birendra visited Germany in 1986, which was reciprocated by President Roman Herzog in 1996. Before Herzog’s visit, President Heinric Luebke visited Nepal in July 1967, following the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1958. More recently, in June 2017, President Bidya Devi Bhandari visited Switzerland to address the 106th International Labour Conference on “World of Work Summit: A Better Future for Women at Work.” Given the close and friendly ties with these European nations, a high-level visit from Nepal’s head of state was long overdue and imminent.

Solidarity for social justice

Nepal joined the ILO in 1966, and President Paudel’s participation in the 112th International Conference was a key part of his visit. The conference theme was “Global Solidarity for Social Justice.”  At the inaugural session, ILO Director-General Gilbert F Houngbo welcomed President Paudel, highlighting his democratic credentials and his life-long struggle for democracy and social justice, which included over fourteen years of imprisonment under despotic rule. In his address, President Paudel affirmed Nepal’s commitment to the ILO’s international campaign and emphasized Nepal’s efforts in implementing international labor agreements. He noted that Nepal's constitution guarantees rights to employment, the formation of trade unions, and participation in collective bargaining.

President Paudel also addressed the challenges posed by the IT revolution, which has given rise to digital, gig, and care economies. He stressed the urgent need for safe and decent working conditions globally. Emphasizing the theme of social justice, he stated, “Without justice to the helpless and economic gains to the destitute, nations around the world can’t achieve the goal of Social Justice.” He also highlighted climate-induced socio-economic inequalities and the issue of climate refugees in Nepal, a topic also raised during COP26 in Glasgow. President Paudel’s voice on climate change and its socio-economic impacts was echoed by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in his address at the conference’s concluding session. President Paudel’s speech received a standing ovation from delegates, including government representatives, workers, employers, activists, and institutions dedicated to labor causes worldwide.

Broadening prospects of partnership

On June 12, President Paudel met with Swiss President Viola Amherd for bilateral talks in Geneva. After a brief exchange of pleasantries and introductions, President Amherd expressed satisfaction with the current state of bilateral relations. She emphasized that democracy, peace, and human rights are areas of interest for Switzerland and expressed a desire to see these areas flourish in Nepal. She also mentioned transitional justice as an area where Switzerland is interested in collaborating.

In response, President Paudel praised Swiss democracy and governance, highlighting the progressive provisions of Nepal’s constitution, particularly its inclusiveness and the 33 percent representation of women in the legislature. This aspect of Nepal's constitution impressed the Swiss side. President Paudel also discussed Nepal’s efforts toward socio-economic progress and prosperity following the establishment of a democratic system. The discussions covered mutual interests such as climate change and the need for enhanced assistance to Nepal after it graduates to a middle-income nation in 2026. President Paudel emphasized that while Nepal is least responsible for environmental degradation, it suffers significantly from climate change impacts. He suggested areas for Swiss investment, including agro-forestry, mountain tourism, and hydropower development, to aid Nepal’s socio-economic transformation. He also expressed gratitude for Switzerland’s continued support in Nepal’s socio-economic endeavors.

In Germany, President Paudel met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on June 17 at the presidential palace in Berlin. Nepal and Germany established diplomatic relations in 1958, and Germany began its development cooperation with Nepal in 1961, initially focusing on technical assistance. Over the past six decades, this relationship has expanded to include scientific collaboration, academic exchanges, technology transfer, and cooperation in governance and democracy. More recently, the ‘Ausbildung’ or Dual Vocational Training program has provided employment opportunities for Nepali youth in Germany, which was a significant topic during the bilateral talks.

During their meeting, President Steinmeier praised Nepal for its support for Ukraine at the UN and expressed concern over the recruitment of Nepalis by the Russian army. President Paudel addressed the climate crisis and its impact on resource-poor nations like Nepal. He also requested support for the release of six Nepalis held as prisoners of war by Ukraine and the lifting of the ban on Nepali airlines in European airspace.

Special gestures 

Throughout his visit, President Paudel was accorded state-level receptions, marked by significant gestures of goodwill from both his German and Swiss counterparts. In Berlin, President Steinmeier displayed a remarkable degree of humility and support, assisting President Paudel when he appeared momentarily frail during the guard of honor. This visit included a surprise one-on-one meeting between the two heads of state, during which they recalled their countries’ historic leaders, Willy Brandt and BP Koirala, who both had notable backgrounds in the struggle for social democracy.

In summary, President Paudel’s week-long official visit to Germany and Switzerland from 11-19 June 2024, significantly reinvigorated Nepal’s bilateral relations with these European nations. His participation in the ILO’s 112th International Conference reinforced Nepal’s solidarity with the ILO’s campaign for “Global Solidarity for Social Justice.” Throughout his visit, President Paudel highlighted the progressive aspects of Nepal’s constitution, including its inclusive character and the constitutional guarantee of 33 percent representation for women in the national legislature. He also solicited enhanced support from these friendly nations for Nepal’s post-2026 challenges.

President Paudel’s meaningful participation at the ILO conference and his bilateral engagements emphasized the global need for climate justice and highlighted Nepal's ongoing socio-economic challenges and aspirations. His interactions with entrepreneurs and stakeholders in the environment and SME sectors broadened the prospects for future partnerships, underscoring Nepal’s commitment to socio-economic transformation and its dedication to a socially just world. The official visits not only strengthened Nepal’s bilateral relations with Germany and Switzerland but also enhanced its international standing and reinforced its commitment to the ILO’s goals.

The author is foreign relations advisor to President Paudel

In the dynamic realm of Nepali politics, coalition governments have become commonplace rather than rare. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s current predicament, preparing for his fifth vote of confidence on 12 July 2024, highlights the intricate interplay of power dynamics, alliances and political strategies.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal initially secured 268 votes out of 270 MPs in the House of Representatives on 10 Jan 2023, with the backing of the CPN-UML, marking his second successful confidence vote since taking office. However, on 20 March 2023, he garnered support from 172 out of 262 MPs after switching allegiance to the Nepali Congress.

In his third confidence vote on 13 March 2024, Dahal received 157 votes out of 268 MPs present, following his return to the CPN-UML from the Nepali Congress camp. Most recently, on 20 May 2024, Dahal gained backing from 157 MPs out of 158, with the entire opposition absent. This vote took place in the 275-member House of Representatives, where one member abstained, and none voted against the motion.

Members of the main opposition Nepali Congress, the largest party in the lower house, did not participate in the voting due to ongoing protests within the House. His fifth vote of confidence on July 12 underscores the ongoing challenges and strategic maneuvers in Nepal’s evolving political landscape. It is anticipated that Dahal may receive no more than 63 votes in this fifth exercise of confidence since 26 March  2022.

A recurring saga

Since assuming office, PM Dahal has piloted through multiple votes of confidence, each a testament to the fragility of political alliances and the quest for stability in Nepal’s governance. His tenure began with a significant mandate, securing 268 out of 270 votes in the House of Representatives on 10 Jan 2023. Subsequent votes have showcased varying levels of support, reflective of the shifting sands of Nepali politics.

In the Parliament, the Nepali Congress holds 88 seats, CPN-UML has 79 seats and the Prime Minister’s CPN-MC, the third-largest party in the House, has 32 seats. Rastriya Swatantra Party with 21 members stands as the fourth largest party. Despite this, the Dahal government has fallen into a minority position after losing support from the largest party in the coalition. With a total of 275 seats in the House of Representatives, a majority requires 138 votes.

His fifth vote of confidence underscores the ongoing struggle to maintain a cohesive coalition amidst growing dissent and opposition calls for resignation. Despite calls from both the Congress and UML to step down and allow for a potential leadership transition, PM Dahal has opted to exercise his constitutional right to seek validation from the House.

Political opportunism

Political opportunism in Nepal’s context often revolves around the strategic maneuvering of parties and leaders to capitalize on emerging opportunities and alliances. PM Dahal’s tenure epitomizes this, as his ability to secure votes of confidence has relied heavily on navigating the complex web of coalition politics rather than outright majority support.

Prospects and challenges

Looking ahead, Nepal faces significant challenges in achieving political stability and effective governance. The reliance on coalition governments, while often necessary to accommodate diverse political interests, can hinder long-term policy implementation and governance continuity. PM Dahal’s tenure serves as a case study in managing these complexities, where each vote of confidence becomes not just a procedural exercise but a reflection of broader political dynamics and aspirations.

As Nepal prepares for yet another pivotal vote of confidence under PM Dahal’s leadership, the nation watches closely. The outcome will not only determine the immediate future of the government but also set the tone for Nepal’s ongoing quest for political stability and effective governance amidst a backdrop of coalition complexities and shifting alliances.

While coalition governments are a testament to Nepal’s vibrant democracy, they also highlight the challenges of political opportunism and the delicate balance of power that defines the country’s political landscape. As PM Dahal seeks to secure his mandate once again, the implications resonate beyond mere numbers, encapsulating the hopes and aspirations of a nation in search of sustainable governance.

Nepal’s political history has been turbulent, defined by seismic shifts and the transformative rise of the Maoist movement spearheaded by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Dahal. Emerging in the 1990s, the Maoist insurgency fused Marxist-Leninist ideology with a fervent call for socio-economic reform in one of the world’s poorest nations. Under Dahal’s leadership, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) launched a protracted guerrilla war aimed at toppling the monarchy and establishing a republic. This uprising, lasting over a decade, plunged Nepal into widespread violence and instability, fundamentally challenging the entrenched power structures of the monarchy and the established political order.

By the mid-2000s, amidst mounting national and international pressure, the Maoists engaged in peace negotiations with the government, culminating in the landmark Comprehensive Peace Accord of 2006. This agreement marked a pivotal moment, ending the armed conflict and opening the door for the Maoists to transition into mainstream politics. In 2008, Nepal abolished its centuries-old monarchy and embraced a federal democratic republic, with Dahal assuming the mantle as the country’s first Prime Minister under the new constitutional framework.

However, the journey from insurgency to governance proved arduous for the Maoist party, now rebranded as the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center). The transition was fraught with internal strife, ideological divisions, and the daunting task of delivering on promises made during the insurgency era. Despite initial hopes of ushering in profound social justice and economic prosperity, Dahal’s leadership faced criticism for perceived compromises and shortcomings.

The Maoist Center’s decline as a political powerhouse can be attributed to several factors. The party struggled to effectively address the socio-economic grievances that initially fueled its rebellion, leading to a gradual erosion of popular support. Internal power struggles and factionalism further undermined its organizational coherence and electoral prospects. Allegations of corruption and a perceived drift toward authoritarianism tarnished the party’s image, exacerbating its challenges on the political stage.

In recent years, the Maoist party, under Dahal’s continued leadership, has experienced diminishing electoral success. The 2017 parliamentary elections saw significant losses for the party, signaling a declining influence and support base among Nepali voters. This setback has been compounded by the emergence of new political dynamics and the rise of competing parties, relegating the Maoists from their once-dominant position in Nepal’s political landscape.

The trajectory of Nepal’s Maoist movement illustrates the intricate dynamics of revolutionary ideologies transitioning into the realm of governance. While the Maoists played a pivotal role in reshaping Nepal’s political fabric and dismantling the monarchy, their journey has been marred by internal discord, ideological challenges and the pragmatic realities of governance.

As Nepal continues its democratic evolution, the legacy of the Maoist movement remains intertwined with the nation’s history, offering poignant lessons on the complexities of revolutionary change and the enduring quest for socio-economic transformation in a diverse and evolving society.

Social engineering, in the context of cybersecurity, refers to the manipulation of individuals into divulging confidential information or performing actions that compromise security. This technique has evolved significantly over time, adapting to changes in technology and society. By examining its history, current state and future implications, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of this pervasive threat.

In the digital age, where firewalls and encryption safeguard our data, an often-overlooked threat exploits the weakest link in the security chain: Human psychology. This insidious threat, known as social engineering, involves manipulating individuals into divulging confidential information or performing actions that compromise security. Unlike traditional cyber-attacks that target systems and networks, social engineering preys on human error and trust. The techniques range from phishing emails that mimic legitimate communication to pretexting, where attackers fabricate a story to gain access to sensitive data. Even seemingly benign interactions, like a friendly phone call or an innocuous social media message, can be vectors for these attacks. As our reliance on digital communication grows, the sophistication of social engineering tactics increases, making it imperative for individuals and organizations to recognize and counteract these deceptive practices. Awareness, education and vigilance are our best defenses against social engineering, ensuring that our trust does not become our downfall in the cybersecurity landscape.

Historical context

The concept of social engineering is not new. It dates back to ancient times when individuals employed psychological manipulation to achieve their goals. One of the earliest examples is the Trojan Horse from Greek mythology. The Greeks used deception to gain access to the city of Troy, illustrating how manipulating human trust can lead to significant consequences. In more recent history, con artists like Charles Ponzi in the early 20th century used social engineering to perpetrate financial frauds, preying on people's greed and trust.

With the advent of the digital age, social engineering tactics evolved. The rise of the internet and email in the 1990s introduced new opportunities for attackers. Phishing emails, which trick recipients into providing personal information by masquerading as legitimate communications, became a prevalent form of social engineering. These early attacks laid the groundwork for the sophisticated techniques we see today.

Present-day challenges

Today, social engineering remains one of the most effective methods for cybercriminals. Despite advancements in technology, human behavior remains a critical vulnerability. Modern social engineering attacks are highly targeted and sophisticated, often leveraging extensive information gathered from social media and other online sources.

Phishing attacks have become more convincing, often personalized to increase their success rate. Spear-phishing, a more targeted form of phishing, uses detailed information about the victim to create highly believable emails. For instance, a cybercriminal might research an individual's job role, recent activities, or interests to craft a message that appears to come from a trusted source.

Another prevalent technique is pretexting, where the attacker invents a scenario to persuade the target to divulge information. This could involve pretending to be a colleague, a trusted authority, or a service provider. For example, an attacker might call an employee, posing as IT support, and ask for login credentials in the name of resolving a technical issue.

Baiting and quid pro quo attacks are also common. Baiting involves luring victims with a promise of something enticing, like free software or a prize, which actually installs malware on their devices. Quid pro quo involves offering a service or benefit in exchange for information or access. For instance, an attacker might offer free technical support in exchange for login details.

Social media platforms have become fertile ground for social engineering. Cybercriminals create fake profiles to befriend victims, gather information and exploit it. LinkedIn, in particular, is frequently used for these attacks, given its professional context and the valuable information it provides.

The future of social engineering

Looking ahead, social engineering is likely to become even more sophisticated and challenging to detect. The increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning into cyberattacks poses a significant threat. AI can be used to analyze vast amounts of data quickly, identifying potential targets and crafting highly personalized attacks.

Deepfake technology, which uses AI to create realistic but fake audio and video recordings, is another emerging threat. Imagine receiving a video call that appears to be from a trusted colleague or superior, instructing you to perform a specific action. The potential for such attacks to bypass traditional security measures is significant.

The Internet of Things (IoT) also introduces new vulnerabilities. With more devices connected to the internet, there are more entry points for attackers. IoT devices often have weaker security measures, making them attractive targets. An attacker could manipulate these devices to gain access to larger networks or gather information for social engineering attacks.

To combat these evolving threats, organizations must prioritize cybersecurity awareness and training. Employees are often the first line of defense against social engineering attacks. Regular training can help them recognize and respond to suspicious activities. Additionally, implementing robust security policies and procedures is essential. This includes multi-factor authentication, regular software updates and strict access controls.

Technology also has a role to play in mitigating social engineering risks. Advanced threat detection systems can identify and respond to suspicious activities in real time. Behavioral analytics can help detect anomalies that may indicate a social engineering attack. For instance, if an employee's login patterns suddenly change, this could trigger an alert for further investigation.

Moreover, collaboration between organizations and industries is crucial. Sharing information about threats and best practices can help create a more resilient cybersecurity landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies can also contribute by establishing and enforcing cybersecurity standards.

In conclusion, social engineering is a dynamic and evolving threat that exploits human psychology to compromise security. From its historical roots to its present-day manifestations and future implications, understanding social engineering is critical for developing effective countermeasures. As technology continues to advance, so too must our strategies for protecting against these sophisticated attacks. By prioritizing education, implementing robust security measures and leveraging advanced technologies, we can build a more secure digital future.

Nepal’s logistic sector needs to work towards transforming supply chains through digital platforms and technologies. Despite the rapid advancement of the global supply chain, we continue to rely on traditional methods. The World Bank has been suggesting the government on the agenda of digitalization, but a lack of coordination among government stakeholders has been obstructing the move. The integrated border management system (IBMS) from the World Bank will help streamline the border issues as well as help proper planning from the transit point until the logistic centers and electrical cargo tracking (ETCS) system of ADB with some amendments would help in the transit and domestic flow of goods. The trade facilitation and cross-border paperless trade agendas have been pending for a very long time with little to no activities. Further, involving freight forwarders in the Nepal National Single Window (NNAW) is pending .

The bilateral and regional agreements are all being executed in a very traditional manner, without incorporating modern automation and digitalization mechanisms to ease business and increase traceability, predictability, and accountability to facilitate and meet global supply chain demands.

The customers demand and expect faster, more transparent, and personalized service. To meet their expectations, we need to utilize digital platforms to enhance the customer experience through better tracking, faster delivery, and improved communication to ensure seamless integration of data across different systems and platforms associated with government and private sector service providers. This demands developing data formats and communication between actors in trade facilitation. Another significant challenge is adopting new technologies, scaling them throughout the supply chain through pilot projects in controlled environments before scaling, and making sure these components are simple to integrate and adapt.Protecting sensitive supply chain data from cyber threats is another important and burning issue. Implementing cybersecurity measures, such as encryption, multi-factor authentication, and regular audits, can overcome this by ensuring the accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of data across the supply chain. Data governance policies, as well as the use of data validation tools to maintain high data quality and implement digital signatures, could be useful methods.

The cost factor associated with implementing new digital technologies is high. Still, there is a need to do a cost-benefit analysis and seek cost-effective solutions or phased implementation approaches to manage cost factors. Implementing automation through digitalization has proven successful in many countries, as it helps monitor the flow of goods, documents, money, data, and information among all those associated with the supply chain.

It is essential to change the mindset and adapt to change management by motivating the workforce through proper training, enhancing their digital knowledge, and addressing cultural and operational changes within organizations such as the Departments of Customs and Commerce, as well as both private and government logistic service providers.

Therefore, developing comprehensive training programs and change management strategies to help employees adapt to new technologies is a must, as is setting fixed regulations and standards across different actors and government support agencies to ensure compliance through regular audits. Another challenge is balancing digital transformation with sustainable practices to lessen environmental impacts through monitoring and evaluation. Other precautions include integrating new digital technologies with existing systems using middleware solutions and gradual transition strategies to avoid disrupting operations.

The transition to digitalization in the supply chain requires many issues to be addressed. Some issues require a strategic approach, leveraging the latest digital tools and technologies while ensuring alignment with overall business objectives and maintaining flexibility to adapt to future changes. Implementing IoT devices, real-time tracking, and advanced analytics to monitor and optimize supply chain performance will enable real-time visibility for analytics purposes while also easing the process of doing domestic and international trade.