Pakistan elections: It is army versus none

Pakistan goes to polls on Thursday to elect members of the National Assembly and prime minister. A country of 240m people, marred by political instability, economic chaos and border issues on all fronts, including Iran, Afghanistan, and India, hopes to elect a miraculous leader to uplift the country’s general profile. But the real question lies in whether the Pakistani _Awam_ (public) has any choices to make other than the one presented by the all-powerful Pakistani army and its Chief General Munir. 
 
The answer may not be that difficult to find. The Pakistani ‘establishment’—army, intelligentsia and elite politicians, has already consolidated power and is in no mood to let it go. The military staged a political coup against the elected prime minister, Imran Khan, in Nov 2022 after the two had a falling out, and, of course, the army denied the allegations. 
 
Now, the army has shortlisted a former three-time prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to lead the next government. Now, it’s a matter of namesake elections to happen. 
 
Sharif, the poster boy for the prime ministerial position and chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N), has been brought back to Pakistan by the army from a four-year-long self-exile in London. Sharif did not have a great time dealing with the military leadership during his previous tenure, especially after General Parvaiz Musharraf staged a military coup and jailed him in 2000. 
This time, the army seemed to have no other credible choice left. Sharif has a dedicated fanbase in Pakistan that knows him for his development works during his three tenures, which will be enough to camouflage the army’s direct role in micromanaging Pakistan’s political affairs. 
 
It will not be the first time that the military wants to control the entire political process and government in Pakistan. The country has spent decades under military rule since its partition from India in 1947, and today, it has become the country’s most potent and stable institution. 
 
The open secret about the Pakistani army is that no head of the government questions it. Former prime minister Khan was a recent exception whom the army brought in 2018 through the election process, but the bonhomie turned hostile as Khan went against the top military leadership. The army allegedly staged his ouster through a no-confidence motion in the parliament in November 2022, marking the end of the Imran Khan era. 
 
Khan, a former seasoned cricketer and chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was an experiment gone wrong for the ‘establishment’. Imran Khan and his wife are locked in jail today, but his supporters across the country, especially the young voters, are vying for his release. With dozens of cases against Khan and his party members, the army has left no scope for his comeback. 
 
To make it worse, Khan’s party, PTI, has lost the party symbol, which is crucial for a party to reach out to people in rural areas, as not many Pakistanis can read or write. Though the Khan-backed candidates are reaching out to the masses through digital platforms, it is a limited phenomenon in urban areas.  
 
There is no denying that Khan remains a famous voice in the elections even if he is not contesting directly and remains behind bars for the next 31 years. There is certainly a wave of Khan sympathizers wanting Khan-supported candidates to win.   
 
There is no doubt that Khan’s image as a young leader who connected with all age groups made him a popular leader. Above all, the army backing changed the course of Khan’s political life from a struggling politician to a prime minister. However, Khan’s misconception was that he was at par with the army and not under it, which jeopardized his journey, and obviously, the army was in no way ready to commit an ‘original sin’. 
 
On the external front, Khan detested the US, especially in the last phase of his premiership in 2022 and directly accused Washington DC of staging his ouster in cohorts with the army. Khan had drastically tried to take Pakistan out of the American sphere of influence and put more into partnership with Russia. The world watched when Khan landed in Moscow on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It clearly made the US and the Western world unhappy. Khan also raised scratchy questions about China, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. 
 
The army has nourished relationships with the US and China in the last few decades. While Pakistan became the critical strategic geography for the US to launch and continue its ‘War on Terror’ in Afghanistan, China saw it as a gateway to accessing the Arabian Sea for economic and military purposes. Having invested and extended billions in assistance to Pakistan, Khan had undoubtedly risked the interests of the US and China.  
 
Now, under the new incoming leadership, the army would want to be less celebrative of the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan and be more accommodating of the US concerns in Taliban-run Afghanistan. Second, Pakistan would want some US backing in taking the next fight against Iran if the ceasefire fails. Following Iranian military strikes against Jaish al-Adl groups—a militant group based in Pakistan’s Balochistan, Pakistan had retaliated by launching counter-attacks in ‘terrorist hubs’ in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province. 
 
At the same time, China cannot be replaced either by the US or the Islamic world, which has come to the rescue of Pakistan amidst its economic fall. The UAE and Qatar have moved to buy Pakistani state assets, including seaports, airports, telecom companies, etc., to let the money flow into the country. Pakistan also needs US support in the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. Similarly, China is helping Pakistan challenge India by creating pressure on the Himalayan front.  
 
With Delhi, the Pakistani army would not try to do a lot of readjustments and experiments. There is no denying that the ties with India have deteriorated, and there is little that Pakistan hopes to revitalize, with trade being of little hope. 
 
If Sharif is back in office, he might want to engage with India as he has continuously pitched for bettering ties with India in his election campaigns and advocates to resume talks with Delhi. At the same time, India has conveyed, in the strongest words, its ‘zero-tolerance policy on terror’. Given that the terror industry receives protection from the ‘establishment’, India would continue to demand the dismantling of terrorism in all forms in Pakistan. 
 
While the army remains all-powerful and has found a candidate in Nawaz Sharif to be a titular head of the state, there remains no doubt that the elections will not be free and fair—something the global community has raised concerns about, including the US.

Dissecting the Mandarin mindset: A shift in China’s approach vis-a-vis Nepal

Vice-minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPCID), Sun Haiyan, visited Nepal in the last week of Jan 2024. During her four-day visit, she engaged in meaningful discussions with the leaders of major political parties, raising various aspects of bilateral relations.

In contrast to previous visits by Chinese delegations, Sun’s visit garnered significant attention from the Nepali government and political parties. It served as a platform to address long-standing issues that had remained unattended. By bringing these matters into open discussion, she actively sought suggestions and recommendations from prominent Nepali parties to chart the future course of Nepal-China relations. Her expressed desire was to elevate the bilateral ties to a new level, fostering mutual trust and respect.

Undoubtedly, Nepal seeks to maintain positive and neighborly relations with both China and India, with all major political parties prioritizing these two nations in their foreign relations. The adherence to the ‘one-China’ policy remains a longstanding and principled position for Nepal, dating back to the 1950s. Furthermore, Nepal is unequivocal in its commitment to preventing the use of its territory against China by any third country or non-state actors. 

Against this backdrop, the Nepal-China relationship appears generally normal and warm, with occasional minor irritants arising from misunderstandings and miscalculations. However, Madam Sun’s statements go beyond addressing these issues and are directed at external narratives that she believes some sections of Nepali society are adopting and endorsing. It is evident that Sun’s remarks aim to dismiss misconceptions and reinforce the importance of a robust and positive relationship between Nepal and China, urging a deeper understanding of shared values and mutual benefits that underpin their diplomatic ties.

Certainly, it’s essential to consider the broader geopolitical landscape when analyzing her statement and the concerns voiced by other Chinese leaders during their recent visits to Nepal. A significant factor in this context is the global positioning of China and the US policy of ‘containment’, particularly evident in the Indo-Pacific region encompassing the heartland and rimland.

Let’s delve into Vice-minister Sun’s statement and the concerns she expressed during her visit to Nepal. In her statement, she pointed out that some countries are actively working to destabilize the robust relations between Nepal and China, while also highlighting attempts to tarnish the reputation of the Belt and Road Initiative, often labeled as a ‘debt trap’. The underlying context of her statement revolves around the global power struggle, where China leads one axis, and the US leads another. The ideological differences between a socialist China and a capitalist US have contributed to conflicting relations that have, to a significant extent, divided the world’s nations and populations.

Chinese leaders, as articulated in their statements, have made it clear that they will not tolerate any attempts by the US and its Western bloc allies to set the stage against China. This geopolitical backdrop forms the nucleus of Vice-minister Sun Haiyan’s concerns, highlighting the complexities and tensions arising from the broader global power dynamics between the two major players, China and the US. The fact that Nepal has initiated steps to implement the MCC project, involving a substantial grant from the US, while progress on BRI projects remains in the consultation phase, is a matter of concern from the Chinese perspective. And, it is quite natural.

The delay and apparent reluctance in executing Chinese investments, especially in comparison to the timely implementation of projects backed by the US, may indeed be viewed as a genuine concern by Beijing. The reference to Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, labeled as a ‘debt trap’, serves as a cautionary example, emphasizing China’s stance that such narratives are false and designed to undermine its growing global influence. Delay in the completion of Chinese-funded projects in Nepal has been a recurring concern, and Vice-minister Sun, along with Chinese Ambassador Chen Song, also raised this concern. The intention was to identify the reasons behind these delays and work collaboratively to address the issues, ensuring that Chinese aid is not perceived as a burden to Nepal.

Along with these concerns, Sun emphasized three key areas: The status and future of Nepal-China ties, the desired nature of these relations in changing circumstances, and the role Nepali political parties can play in strengthening bilateral ties.

While the general secretary of the CPN-UML, Shankar Pokherel, responded to the concerns raised by Vice Minister Sun, there was a notable absence of responses from leaders of other political parties during the consultation. Despite the silence on these specific issues, all political leaders affirmed their commitment to enhancing relations with China, expressing Nepal’s eagerness to benefit from China's economic growth. They also reiterated their commitment to the ‘one-China’ policy and support for the Belt and Road Initiative.

Ambassador Chen clarified that the BRI involves more than just concessional loans; it also encompasses grant elements. This statement comes in response to Nepal’s long-standing request for Chinese grants, particularly for major projects under the BRI. However, the ambassador also raised a crucial, unanswered question concerning the delays in projects involving Chinese companies. He pointed out that these companies, which successfully complete projects within set deadlines in other countries, face challenges in doing so in Nepal. Ambassador Chen emphasized that both sides should assess the situation and work toward resolving the issues.

The Nepal government should immediately hold consultation with the Chinese side and move toward implementing the projects keeping the grant element in priority as informed by the ambassador. But, the question left unanswered so far must be mutually addressed. That is the question of Chinese investment and its security. In this regard, the question of Ambassador Chen is serious. He queried the Nepali leaders as to why the same Chinese companies, which were completing projects in other countries within set deadlines, have been unable to do so in Nepal. And he quipped,  “Is it only due to us? No. You have to assess it.” Now it is our part to find fairness. Nepal should seriously do homework to benefit from the two rising economies of the world, which happen to be our neighbors. Until and unless we receive financial support from China and India, we cannot transform Nepal’s national aspiration of ‘Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepal’ into reality.

Call from the wild: Sloth bears need protection, too

Nepal is home to three species of bears, namely the Black bear, Brown bear and the Sloth bear distributed across Himalayan, mountain and Tarai regions, respectively. Among these three members of the Ursidae family, Sloth bear (Melursus ursinus), commonly called ‘Kathe Bhal’ in Nepal, is facing existential crisis highlighting the need for more tailored conservation actions.

Distribution and biology

Sloth bears are found primarily in India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. In Nepal, Sloth bears are distributed along the Tarai and Chure regions of Nepal mostly below the 1,500 meter elevation range. Sloth bears inhabit different habitat ranges, including grassland, moist evergreen forest, riverine forest and Sal forest.

Sloth bears are omnivorous, primarily feeding on termites, ants and insects. They use their front teeth to dig for catching their food, which makes them myrmecophagy mammals. Sloth bears also feed on fruits, flowers and climb trees to hunt for honeycombs. By consuming the termites and ants, this species helps balance the ecosystem apart from helping with seed dispersal, regeneration of plants and creating suitable conditions for seed germination. Furthermore, it also supports the structure and composition of forests.  

Conservation

Though nationally-endangered, sloth bears have yet to get conservation attention in Nepal. Most of Nepal’s sloth bears inhabit Chitwan National Park enjoying a protected habitat, apart from Parsa National Park, Bardiya National Park, Banke National Park and Suklaphanta National Park, forests in Dhanusha and Deukhuri valley in Dang and Triyuga forest in eastern Nepal, which is the second largest habitat of the species in the country. 

As many of these habitats are near the sites with high human population density, the frequency of encounters between the species and the humans is high. Such encounters are largely undocumented. Increasing dependency of communities on natural resources, especially on forests in the Tarai region, has caused a decline in the population of this mammal. 

Anthropogenic threats including habitat loss—due to fragmentation and deforestation—overharvesting and use as dancing bears are leading causes of this decline. 

Furthermore, body parts of this species are in demand internationally for ‘medicinal purposes’ and this factor is triggering the trapping, hunting and trafficking of the species’ body parts. 

The species seems to be moving toward the core area of the jungle due to an increasing exploitation of resources in its habitat. 

Recent instances of the species’ extirpation in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Suklaphanta National Park of Nepal suggest the need for an appropriate conservation action plan.

Normally in our country, charismatic species like the Tiger, Rhino and the Elephant have been prioritized for conservation, while the rest live in the shadows. Nevertheless, conservation is the process that must emphasize conserving biodiversity and embracing the ecosystem as an entire system, demonstrating that it is not selective toward any particular species. 

But our conservation rules and regulations seem to be species-oriented, despite the fact that every species has a role to maintain the ecosystem and that declination and increasing extirpation of the species are signs of an unfavorable ecosystem. Many of the records of Sloth bears in Nepal are from the studies targeted at other species, where records of Sloth bears are captured as a by-catch. Besides, the CNP species study hardly covers unprotected areas. Despite being in the threatened category, Sloth bear has not been prioritized for its study and conservation.

Generally, Sloths bear a sense of insecurity during accidental appearances/encounters with humans, so they try to defend themselves. Because of this behavior, local communities feel that these bears are harmful, so they even seek to kill the mammals by trapping them. 

Sloth bears enjoy some protection at both international and national levels as they fall under appendix I of CITES that seeks to protect the species from threats related to trafficking. Furthermore, Oct 12 is celebrated as the Sloth Bear Day with the aim to promote its remarkable ecological role. Defeating the negative perception and spreading awareness on the importance of this species in maintaining the ecological balance should be our main focus. 

Understanding the prey-predator relationship, trophic cascade should be prioritized to create suitable habitat for particular species. 

Developing a corridor between its habitat and enhancing coexistence should be a top priority at the community level, which has direct connection with the species. This can be done by involving communities for conservation on the basis of their indigenous knowledge.

A psychoanalytical understanding of crimes

It is certain that many of us imagine a society without crimes. Every day, we learn about the occurrences of crimes and profoundly wish that they would stop. We make comments on social media, challenge the government via petitions and rallies, publish articles reminding the public of the looming danger and about the government about its failure to maintain the rule of law. However, history has not been so kind as to crystallize this utopian desire. 

A crime is an act or an omission which is defined as a crime by the criminal law of the land, bearing certain penalties upon the wrongdoer leading to a prosecution by the state. This general meaning has three elements: an act or an omission, definition by the criminal law and prescription of penalties. The absence of any one element does not amount to a crime. 

The above concept, which is endorsed by countless criminologists, is however controversial. Lucia Zedner in her book Criminal Justice (2004) criticizes the culture of defining crimes and associating punishments with them to be “remote from the social world.” She points out the obvious threat that if the criminal law does not ‘define’ crimes, there would be no crimes at all. 

In this article, I will focus on ‘criminal acts’. One of the tools to unravel the mystery behind crimes is the psychoanalytic theory propounded by the Austrian psychoanalyst Sigmund Freud (1856-1939). Freud assumed that an individual’s personality had three components: id, ego, and superego. He claimed that at an individual’s birth, their psychic energy resides in the id. It is the irrational and impulsive part which compels the person to satisfy their biological needs. That is why infants cry when they are hungry, or they wet themselves. 

When infants become toddlers, they develop cognition and critical thinking skills. It signifies the development of the ego which motivates them to discover rational and realistic ways of satisfying their needs. At this stage, they ask their parents to feed them and do not cry like they used to. Between three to six years of age, they develop the superego i.e., their internalized moral standards (conscience). They attain these moral standards mostly through their parents. These standards keep individuals civil and disciplined in society. The superego acts as a bridge between id’s gratifications and ego’s rational means of satisfying those gratifications. It emanates guilt and shame within individuals when they engage in condemnable acts. These tools of psychoanalytic theory enable us to contemplate, in a way, why an individual would commit a crime. The absence of a dynamic balance between these elements leads to deviant acts such as crimes. 

Let us remind ourselves of the abysmal social conditions of the Nepali society, particularly about homicide. It was reported by a daily newspaper on 8 Dec 2019 that 6,233 cases of murder were reported in the fiscal year 2018/19. The reasons could be as trivial as a fit of rage or as complex as a conspired killing. Unlike crimes like theft, robbery, simple hurt, where victims survive, heal, and try to get their life back to normalcy, homicide decimates all chances of persons functioning again. News like these cause people to doubt their surroundings and challenge their security. The death of people generates a ripple effect that disrupts the psychological barrier of the entire nation. 

A psychoanalyst would attribute the causes of this atrocity to factors such as intense rage, suppressed anger, unresolved antagonism, and such. I will share a generalized scenario as to how those Freudian standards come into play.

Let us assume that person A harbors a strong animosity towards another person B. Communication could help solve the tension; however, many people struggle to communicate so they rather keep things to themselves. Alternately, some people generate so much hostility that they view violence as the last resort. Thus, they set the crime in motion. They lose patience, self-control, and enjoy their false sense of gratification. It is only after the completion of the crime that the perpetrator starts thinking about the consequences. 

When person A develops a strong animosity towards person B, they will seek vengeance to satisfy their id. A’s ego will communicate with their id about rational methods to attain this satisfaction. The ego will evaluate whether it will bring about desired outcomes. In this situation, their superego will compute the pros and cons of settling down the matter via violence. 

This can proceed in two ways. If A has a strong superego, then they will either let the matter go or talk to B about it in a civilized way. If A has a fragile superego, then they will seek out immoral and inhumane methods of satisfying their id. One of the ways they will seek, is killing. Their level of conscience and self-control plummet to such a stunted level that they can no longer evaluate the consequences of their acts. It is certain that a part of their conscience will tell them to stop but their urge to satisfy their id becomes immense enough to neglect all the consequences. Thus, they will materialize their criminal intent.

How can we resolve this issue? When I think about it, there is an absence of adequate moral education from both the parents and the school. Parents and schools educate children about good manners to children and penalize them for misconduct. Since the superego proves to be the strongest of the three, it must be robust.

How can we make it robust? While we focus on academics, we must also learn to become patient, cognizant and moral. Our society emphasizes on teaching children about moral and humane notions, through holy texts like the Ved, the Tripitak, the Quran, the Bible and more. These are not merely books but guidance towards a civil and virtuous life. 

Yet something is lacking. Why is there a significant gap between people’s id, ego, and superego? We shall learn patience and virtues from our cultural roots and teach our children the same. We could also research new knowledge to obtain inner stability. These endeavors do pose as solutions to people’s inner conflicts. However, I still think the answer lies somewhere in being patient and vigilant about consciousness and behavior.