Divyopadesh can lead to national prosperity

Before the dawn of Nepal’s republican era, Prithvi Narayan Shah, the founder of modern Nepal, was an undisputed figure in Nepal's state narrative. After the declaration of a republican state on 28 May 2008, Prithvi Narayan Shah has been widely criticized mainly by communists, mostly by Maoists. Incumbent PM and Maoist leader Puspa Kamal Dahal established a narrative that Shah was an expansionist king. He was of the view that it was time to move ahead in the spirit of republican Nepal without marking important dates associated with Nepal’s kings, including King Prithvi, as public holidays and opting for state celebrations. Interestingly, Dahal fielded his candidacy from Gorkha district (PN Shah was the king of the princely state of Gorkha) in this year’s general elections. Having won from there, he surprised Nepali people with two interesting deeds. One, he appeared in Daura Suruwal, a traditional attire that he once portrayed as the attire of the ruling elite and a symbol of hill nationalism (Pahade Rashtravaad). Second, his cabinet declared a national holiday for the first time to commemorate the birth anniversary of King Prithvi on Poush 27 (January 11), something that had not been done for decades after the end of the Panchayat regime. This was a departure from his previous two stints as PM. From diehard admirers to firebrand critics, both have arrived together not only in a seven-party coalition government but also in giving a national holiday on the birth anniversary of Nepal-integrating monarch PN Shah. Discussions about speedy integration of local principalities and states by PN Shah are quite common and so are discourses on PN Shah's nature, liberal and iron-fisted both. However, not much discussion has taken place about the unique diplomatic prowess of the king. Divyopadesh (roughly translated as divine counsel) is testimony to a strong diplomatic understanding of the king (1742-1774). A collection of PN Shah’s wise words on various domestic, diplomatic and geo-political issues, Divyopadesh is also known as Nepal's first written law and is included in the official website of Nepal Law Commission. Good understanding of geopolitics PN Shah had a strong understanding of geopolitics. His understanding made it possible for the independent existence of Nepal as one of the oldest surviving sovereign nations. During his reign, the East India Company (the British force) was on the prowl in Nepal's southern neighborhood, annexing one after another principality of today’s India. While in the north, a weaker Tibet was under the suzerainty of the Chinese empire. Squeezed between these two great powers, the king did his best to integrate small states and principalities in his Gorkha state. He named it Nepal after the integration of the Kathmandu valley. PN Shah did not fight with the British empire in an offensive fashion. Rather, he fought for defense. For example, when the king was on his mission to annex Kathmandu, Jaya Prakash Malla, the king of Kantipur (Kathmandu), sought the East India Company's military support. Captain Kinloch marched from Patna with 24,000 troops and confronted Gorkha soldiers on 6 Nov 1767. Prem Singh Basnyat, Nepal's military historian, said just 800 of the 24,000 British troops were left alive after the battle of Sindhuli. Despite such a victory, the monarch did not order offensive moves. He rather instructed the noblemen to maintain a balanced relationship with both northern and southern powers. In his divine counsel, he says, “Nepal is like a yam between two boulders. Keep strong friendship with the empire of China; maintain friendship also with the emperor of the sea (the British empire).” In a way, PN Shah had foreseen Indian independence and said, “When Hindustani (Indian) people wake up, he (the British emperor) will find it difficult to stay there. PN Shah’s successor did not pay heed to his diplomatic teachings. They went for direct confrontation with the East India Company from 1814-16 and lost one-third of Nepal's sovereign land. Far-sighted in economic diplomacy  Economic diplomacy is at the core of all sorts of diplomacy in the contemporary world. PN Shah had extensively talked about its relevance in the 18th century with a main emphasis on exports. In Divyopadesh, PN Shah says, “Export our products and other herbs to foreign countries and earn cash in return. Always try to earn money through external trade. The palace will be stronger if our people become wealthy.” Nepal’s political palaces are rich, but the people are still lagging far behind in comparison to other South Asian countries, leave alone the world. Nepal's trade picture is very tragic where imports dwarf exports. Had PN Shah's teaching been utilized on Nepal’s national economic front, the country and the people would have fared much better.

China’s Nepal plan: Firmer footing, weakened Delhi

Sandwiched between India and China, Nepal occupies a unique position in these countries’ strategic calculations. China, which has traditionally adopted a pro-establishment policy in Nepal, is seen to have become increasingly assertive in its engagements there since the 2015 massive earthquake in Nepal. Under such circumstances, one can expect greater competition between China, India and the United States (US) in Nepal in coming days. Since China announced its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as One Belt One Road, in 2013, it has been quite assertive in its approach toward Nepal. This became apparent when China began increasing its engagement with Nepal after the massive earthquake in April 2015 devastated several parts of the landlocked country. China provided $483m in grant assistance for 25 reconstruction projects in five sectors: infrastructure, people’s livelihood in mountain areas, archeological heritage renovation, disaster preparedness and health for post-quake reconstruction1 When the ‘unofficial blockade’ by India had precipitated a backsliding in India-Nepal relations, Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli signed multiple agreements on his visit to Beijing in March 2016 related to infrastructure development with China. There has also been a constant flow of security assistance from Beijing to Kathmandu since then. This includes aid to the tune of $2.6m in 2008, RMB20.8m in 2009, $7.7m in 2011 and $32.3m in 2017. Further, in 2017, Nepal and China began the first-ever joint military drill, ‘Sagarmatha Friendship’, which was a major turning point in their bilateral defense cooperation. India, the US and the UK have long been Nepal’s major defense partners. However, in recent times, China has emerged as one of Nepal’s most important major defense partners. In 1989, Nepal purchased military hardware such as anti-aircraft guns, medium range surface-to-surface missiles and AK-47 rifles, whose sale was halted with the fall of the monarchy in 1990. During the short royal takeover, Beijing resumed its weapons sale to King Gyanendra by providing around $1m to fight the Maoist insurgency. There has also been a constant flow of security assistance from Beijing to Kathmandu since then. This includes aid to the tune of $2.6m in 2008, RMB20.8m in 2009, $7.7m in 2011 and $32.3m in 2017. Further, in 2017, Nepal and China began the first-ever joint military drill, ‘Sagarmatha Friendship’, which was a major turning point in their bilateral defense cooperation. During the visit of Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Ishwor Pokhrel to China in October 2018, both countries signed an agreement in which China pledged to increase its military support to Nepal by 50 percent to strengthen Nepal Army’s disaster management capabilities and to better equip Nepal’s United Nations peacekeeping missions. Besides financial assistance, the People’s Liberation Army has also increased the number of war college seats and National Defense Course quotas for Nepal Army officers. The recent engagement between the two countries goes on to suggest that China is set to overtake Nepal’s traditional defense partners. Despite the previous resolution of border disputes between Nepal and China, there have been reports of Chinese encroachment of Nepalese territory in Humla in recent times. On 21 Aug 2021, the Deuba government formed a panel, led by Jaya Narayan Acharya, Joint-Secretary at the Ministry of Home Affairs, to study the boundary issues along the Nepal-China border from LimiLapsa to Hilsa of Humla. The panel concluded that there are issues at Pillars 11 and 12 and suggested that the government resolve the issues by forming a joint inspection group of experts. The six-member panel, which had representatives from the Nepal Police, Armed Police Force, National Investigation Department and the Department of Survey, stated that there are issues needing bilateral attention. However, China denied such encroachment. India, on the other hand, is concerned about China’s growing proximity to Nepal. New Delhi will undoubtedly find it challenging to successfully manage China’s expanding footprint in Nepal on its own. It is also predicted that the US is going to be more proactive in Nepal after its $500m Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant project was ratified in the Nepalese parliament in Feb 2022. Nepal started to view the MCC with suspicion after the US Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for South Asia, David J Ranz, remarked that the MCC project was an important initiative under the US Indo-Pacific strategy during his visit to Kathmandu in May 2019. The remark led the Left parties of Nepal to believe that the MCC would invite the China-US rivalry to Nepal. Media reports and analysts see a Chinese hand behind the anti-MCC protests, as China has understood the MCC to be an integral part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, putatively designed to encircle China strategically. In such a situation, one can expect greater competition between China and the US in Nepal, moving forward. China is in favor of a stable Nepal with a strong government so that it can push its development projects, especially under the BRI. Additionally, a stable government in Kathmandu would serve China’s primary interests in maintaining security in the Tibetan Autonomous Region. This is because only a strong and stable government can address Chinese demands and its strategic interests in Nepal. China has been accusing external actors (read Western powers) of making use of Nepal’s fragile situation (read Tibet). Hence, Beijing would prefer a government in Nepal that is sensitive to Chinese interests. Breaking away from the traditional norms of China’s pro-establishment policy, Beijing is interested in engaging with different political parties because, apart from its major security interests, China now also wants to dilute, if not challenge, India’s predominant influence in the country. Thus, Beijing is proactively engaging in public diplomacy and establishing several development projects within Nepal to expand its leverage. This is part of Jaiswal’s journal article under Nepal’s Foreign Policy in a changing world, a joint publication of the Institute of South Asian Studies-National University of Singapore (ISAS-NUS) and Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) on Nepal’s Foreign Policy in A Changing World

Trans-Himalayan connectivity is taking shape

It is my great pleasure to come to Nepal, a flower-filled beautiful country, as the 22nd Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the People's Republic of China to Nepal. I would like to express my heartfelt respect and sincere thanks to friends from all walks of life who have cared about and supported the development of China-Nepal relations for a long time. Linked by mountains and rivers, China and Nepal enjoy ever-lasting friendship. More than 1,600 years ago, Chinese eminent monk Faxian and Nepali eminent monk Buddhabhadra exchanged visits and cooperated in translating Buddhist classics echoed through ages. In Tang Dynasty, the eminent monk Xuanzang visited Lumbini, the birthplace of the Buddha Sakyamuni, and left precious written records. In Yuan Dynasty, the famous Nepali craftsman Arniko came to China, and built Miaoying Temple in Beijing. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1955, China and Nepal have always been respecting, trusting and supporting each other. In the critical moments of responding to the 2015 Nepal earthquake and fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic, the two countries have lent mutual support to each other, setting an example of equal treatment, friendly cooperation, and mutual benefit between neighboring countries. In 2019, President Xi Jinping paid a historic state visit to Nepal. The two heads of state agreed to build the Strategic Partnership of Cooperation Featuring Ever-lasting Friendship for Development and Prosperity. In recent years, under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative, China-Nepal practical cooperation in various fields has been improved both in quality and efficiency, and the trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network has gradually taken shape. In October 2022, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held in Beijing. The most important result of the meeting was the election of a new central leadership of the CPC Central Committee with General Secretary Xi Jinping at its core. China embarked on a new journey to build China into a modern socialist country in all respects and advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization. Not long ago, Nepal successfully held federal and provincial elections, and formed new government. Changes of the world, of our times and of history are unfolding today in ways like never before. In the face of new situations, new opportunities and new challenges, China will, as always, firmly support Nepal in safeguarding state sovereignty and national dignity, exploring a development path suited its national conditions, and pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies. China is willing to work with Nepal to stay true to our original aspirations, inherit friendship, join forces to seek common development, and build a closer China-Nepal community with a shared future in the new era. As the new ambassador to Nepal, I am deeply aware of the glorious mission and great responsibility. I will follow the important consensus reached by President Xi Jinping and Nepali leaders, stay devoted and dedicated to outline their freehand brushwork of bilateral relations into a meticulous painting. There is a Nepali saying “even a drop of water can fill a tank”. Chinese also say “the fire burns high when everybody adds wood". I stand ready to work closely with Nepali friends from all walks of life, gather wisdom and pool strength to bring more benefits to the two peoples, and jointly write a new chapter of the China-Nepal strategic partnership of cooperation featuring ever-lasting friendship for development and prosperity. The speech provided by new Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song who arrived Kathmandu on Sunday to assume his post.

Onus on new government to mend Nepal-China relations

People in Nepal appear to have a high tolerance for the city’s chaotic streets, potholed roads, and power shortages. The country known as a tourist hub has seen an upsurge in the number of tourists, but the numbers have not helped the country cope with rising inflation, it appears. On the contrary, they appear to have impacted the livelihoods of local communities. At a time of national unrest and discontent, on Dec 26, Pushpa Kamal Dahal was sworn in as Nepal’s Prime Minister in Sheetal Niwas amid tumultuous political rivalry and skepticism, with the goals of reviving the economy and balancing international power-play. Despite his optimism, Dahal is sure to encounter more challenges than in his previous two terms in office, both inside and abroad. Dahal’s first objective will be to restore people’s trust in the government. To enhance the effectiveness of government operations, Dahal should be more aggressive in promoting a transparent government mechanism and undertaking wide-ranging accountability measures. Nepal’s GDP per capita has remained stagnant for years. The new government should invest more in infrastructure, create new jobs, channel additional industrial capital to boost tourism, and obtain different sources of income for the people, while also focusing on reducing the trade deficit, maintaining currency stability, adding liquidity to the market, and curbing inflation. Diplomatically, Dahal faces a more difficult situation, as China, although actively promoting the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance infrastructure investment and construction in Nepal in recent years, was totally frustrated with previous Prime Minister Deuba’s series of anti-China measures. The United States, which regards China as a rival, is trying to bind Nepal to its “Rebalancing Asia and the Pacific strategy” as part of its global stranglehold on China’s development, while India, which has a territorial dispute with China, wishes to intensify intervention in Nepal’s domestic politics due to its hegemony over Nepal’s energy and trade. Despite signing of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) agreement between the former government and the United States, Dahal must ensure that its terms do not supersede Nepal’s laws, and that foreign staff executing the agreement do not have the same legal protection as diplomats do, to deter potential espionage. Moreover, notwithstanding the government’s final veto of the US’ State Partnership Program (SPP) project, Dahal must make it clear to every citizen that any type of foreign military presence does not serve Nepal’s best interests, and a free and independent neutral position would provide Nepal a stronger edge in the rivalry among superpowers. The road ahead is challenging in terms of bilateral relations, but there are some beams of hope too. One-way trade is now possible through the China-Nepal Hilsa/Purang port and two-way trade has just resumed through the Kyirong-Rasuwagadhi border after a three-year hiatus due to the epidemic. Gradual reopening of more Nepal-China links means more development opportunities for Nepal’s northern Himalayan region. What’s even more thrilling is that the Sino-Nepal cross-border railway connectivity project has seen new progress. On Dec 27, a group of six Chinese experts arrived in Kathmandu to initiate a survey for the development of the cross-border rail link. This railway line, once opened, will not only bring new opportunities for tourism but will also improve Nepal's export pattern and enhance Nepal's economic resilience. It is an important step in the construction of linkages that will help Nepal fulfill its long-cherished dream of transforming from a land-locked country to a land-linked country, ushering in a new era. In the long run, the railroad will also be connected to South Asia, considerably improving Nepal’s strategic position, and bringing greater opportunities for Nepal. Besides, the inauguration of Pokhara Regional International Airport, constructed with Chinese assistance, has opened new prospects for the country that is hugely dependent on tourism. Increased air connectivity resulting from this infrastructure will bring tangible benefits to the tourism industry and to the Nepali people. With effect from Jan 8, China will remove restrictions for international visitors wanting to enter the country and resume outbound travel of Chinese citizens. This will surely contribute to the Nepal Tourism Decade strategic action plan. Before the pandemic, tourists from China accounted for the largest number of tourists visiting Nepal from a single country. With a gradual easing of travel restrictions, Nepal can attract more Chinese tourists to give its economy a boost. The BRI cooperation projects should be pushed forward without delay. Both Nepal and China are aware of certain foreign geopolitical interests at play. The onus is on the new government to take the northern neighbor into confidence by keeping external interventions at bay. Incomplete China-Nepal projects should be expedited and issues requiring immediate attention sorted out promptly. Since Prachanda is not a new face in the leadership position, he should be aware of the sensitivities of an immediate neighbor and should not repeat some activities of the previous government that had upset China. Government engagements should be based on trust and friendship, not on political posturing. Beijing looks forward to deepening cooperation with the new government in Kathmandu, and expects a similar gesture from the new government. The author is a Chinese scholar with interest on Nepali affairs