Submit your Article

The European Central Bank is preparing banks for a possible Russian-sponsored cyber attack as tensions with Ukraine mount, two people with knowledge of the matter said, as the region braces for the financial fallout of any conflict, Reuters reported.

The stand-off between Russia and Ukraine has rattled Europe’s political and business leaders, who fear an invasion that would inflict damage on the entire region.

Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron shuttled from Moscow to Kyiv in a bid to act as a mediator after Russia massed troops near Ukraine.

Now the European Central Bank, led by former French minister Christine Lagarde and which has oversight of Europe’s biggest lenders, is on alert for the threat of cyber attacks on banks launched from Russia, the people said.

While the regulator had been focused on ordinary scams that boomed during the pandemic, the Ukraine crisis has diverted its attention to cyber attacks launched from Russia, said one of the people, adding that the ECB has questioned banks about their defences.

Banks were conducting cyber war games to test their ability to fend off an attack, the person said.

The ECB, which has singled out addressing cybersecurity vulnerability as one of its priorities, declined to comment.

Its concerns are mirrored around the world.

The New York Department of Financial Services issued an alert to financial institutions in late January, warning of retaliatory cyber attacks should Russia invade Ukraine and trigger US sanctions, according to Thomson Reuters’ Regulatory Intelligence.

HIGH ALERT

The United States, the European Union and Britain have repeatedly warned Putin against attacking Ukraine after Russia deployed around 100,000 troops near the border with its former Soviet neighbour.

Earlier this year, multiple Ukrainian websites were hit by a cyber strike that left a warning to “be afraid and expect the worst”, as Russia had amassed troops near Ukraine’s borders.

Ukraine’s state security service SBU said it saw signs the attack was linked to hacker groups associated with Russian intelligence services.

Russian officials say the West is gripped by Russophobia and has no right to lecture Moscow on how to act after it expanded the NATO military alliance eastwards since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.

The Kremlin has also repeatedly denied the Russian state has anything to do with hacking around the world and said it is ready to cooperate with the United States and others to crack down on cyber crime.

Nonetheless, regulators in Europe are on high alert.

Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre warned large organisations to bolster their cyber security resilience amid the deepening tensions over Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Mark Branson, the head of German supervisor BaFin, told an online conference that cyberwarfare was interconnected with geopolitics and security.

The White House has also blamed Russia for the devastating ‘NotPetya’ cyber attack in 2017, when a virus crippled parts of Ukraine’s infrastructure, taking down thousands of computers in dozens of countries.

The vulnerability was underscored again last year, when one of the globe’s largest-yet hacking campaigns used a US tech company as a springboard to compromise a raft of US government agencies, an attack the White House blamed on Russia’s foreign intelligence services.

The attack breached software made by SolarWinds Corp, giving hackers access to thousands of companies using its products, rippling through Europe, where Denmark’s central bank said that the country’s “financial infrastructure” had been hit.

Some, however, believe the Ukraine crisis has been blown out of proportion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Washington and media of fuelling panic.

Canadians say they are concerned political strife in the United States will undermine security and economic growth at home, according to a new poll, as an anti-vaccine mandate protest praised by former US President Donald Trump gripped the capital and affected the border, Reuters reported.

The anxiety captured in the Angus Reid Institute survey provides a backdrop to protests across the country, at the international border, and especially in Ottawa, the capital, where police say Americans have provided a “significant” amount of money and organizational support.

The Ottawa protest, now in its 13th day, has been marred by the appearance of hateful symbols, like the Confederate flag, associated with the aggressive populism embraced by Trump supporters and some protesters say their goal is not only to roll back vaccine mandates, but also to overthrow the government.

“The success or failure of the United States will have a profound impact on Canada,” said Bruce Heyman, former American ambassador to Canada from 2014-2017. “Part of the more extreme nature of our politics over the last few years has now moved to occupy some part of Canada today.”

In the poll, 78% of Canadians said they were worried America’s democratic discord will affect their country’s economy and security. The survey of 1,620 Canadians was conducted between Jan. 27 and Jan. 31, the days in which the Ottawa protest began.

Two-thirds of Canada’s 38 million people live within 100 km (62 miles) of the US border, and the two countries are each other’s top trading partners.

The trade relationship with the United States is of existential importance to Canada, with 75% of all exports going to the southern neighbor. Half of Canada’s imports come from the United States, including 60% of all imported fresh vegetables.

The Jan. 6 anniversary of the storming of Capitol Hill in Washington last year led to a series of articles in Canadian newspapers that sounded an alarm about the resiliency of American democracy in coming years, and in particular after the 2024 election.

Until recently, politics in Canada has been less polarized than in the United States. One example is the adoption of vaccines with nearly 80% of Canadians having had two shots of a COVID-19 vaccine in contrast to 64% in the United States.

However, last week’s ouster of Conservative opposition leader Erin O’Toole in part for failing to embrace the protest suggests the political landscape is shifting.

“Canadians have generally looked to the United States and felt like, ‘Whatever is going on there, it’s not as bad in Canada,'” said Shachi Kurl, Angus Reid president.

“We like to think of ourselves as… a country of circumspection and compromise and friendliness, yet two in five people don’t feel that way anymore,” she said. Some 37% of Canadians say there is no room for political compromise in their country, the poll shows.

Ottawa police said on Tuesday they had worked with Ohio police to track down and arrest a man there for calling in fake threats “designed to deceive and distract our emergency resources,” deputy police chief Steve Bell told reporters.

On Monday, Canada’s federal Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino said the government would be “very vigilant about external forces, about foreign interference”.

‘A WAKE UP CALL’

Trump last weekend spoke out in support of the truckers and called Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “far-left lunatic”.

According to Angus Reid poll, 68% of Canadians believe U.S. democracy cannot survive another Trump presidency, and 47% said the United States is on its way to becoming an authoritarian state.

“The United States used to be a beacon of democracy, and now it’s exporting right-wing sedition to other democratic countries,” said Roland Paris, Trudeau’s former foreign policy adviser and professor of international affairs at University of Ottawa.

“The worse things get in the United States, the more dangerous it will be for Canada,” Paris said, calling the Ottawa protest a “wake-up call”.

Gerry Butts, Vice Chairman of Eurasia Group and formerly Trudeau’s top advisor, says “Canadians are astute observers of what’s happening in the United States, and they’re rightly anxious about it”.

“In the long term, Canada will be like everyone else… badly damaged if the United States becomes a democracy in name only,” he said.

Over the past few weeks, the US has been consistently pressing Nepal’s major political parties for parliamentary ratification of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact, under which Nepal is entitled to $500 million in grant. The effect of such pressure is starting to show.

The dispute over compact has sowed discord in the ruling coalition while the main opposition, CPN-UML, is also under pressure to reveal its official position. Speaker Agni Sapkota, meanwhile, has been postponing House meetings over UML’s parliament obstruction threats, hanging the compact’s fate in balance.     

The US wants a final decision on the MCC Nepal compact before the March meeting of the MCC Board of Directors, to be chaired by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. Sources say the US is likely to turn on the heat on the Nepali leaders until the compact is approved.

Despite pressures from Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and the US, two coalition partners—CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist)—have not budged from their anti-compact positions. They want to change some of its provisions even though they have not specified them.

With the two major partners in the coalition vacillating on compact ratification, PM Deuba of Nepali Congress, which is in favor of the US grant, has reached out to the main opposition, UML, asking for its support.   

NC Leaders close to Deuba say the prime minister is even willing to break the coalition if the UML lends its support for the compact’s ratification. Ever since the UML was ousted from power last July, the party has been saying that the ruling coalition should first have a uniform view on the compact. The party says it currently has no position on it.

Rajan Bhattarai, head of UML Foreign Affairs Department, says despite some reservations the party had tried to push the compact when it was in power.

“But we are not in power now and our position on the matter does not mean much. Right now, there is no point in saying yes or no to the compact,” says Bhattarai.

But Speaker Sapkota has blamed the UML for disrupting the House and blocking the MCC bill from getting tabled, which Bhattarai denies.

Leaders close to PM Deuba say that if the UML lifts House obstruction and makes its position clear on the compact, NC will put pressure on Sapkota to table the bill in Parliament.

Additionally, Congress leaders believe that if the UML comes out openly in the compact’s favor, the Maoists and CPN (Unified Socialist) are likely to follow suit. They say the latter two do not want to be portrayed as standing in the way of compact ratification.

Though the UML is unlikely to go against the compact in the voting process, there is still a chance of resistance. Some UML leaders are against the party leadership issuing a whip on the compact. Given that the issue has deeply polarized Nepali public, they believe individual lawmakers should be allowed to use their conscience when voting on the compact.

PM Deuba seems to be in a fix. He is not getting the support of his own coalition partners but he cannot rely on the opposition either.

“The prime minister is determined to endorse the compact, irrespective of its implications for the coalition. That’s why he has been reaching out to the main opposition,” says Nain Singh Mahar, a Congress central working committee member.

The US is also doing its part to woo the UML. On February 8, US Ambassador to Nepal Randy W. Berry called on UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli at the latter’s residence in Balkot, Bhaktapur. In the meeting, the US envoy sought UML’s help in the compact’s endorsement.

Political parties are also under pressure to decide the compact’s fate after a joint letter submitted by PM Deuba and Maoist Center Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal to the MCC was leaked. In the letter, the duo had committed to ratifying the compact by February-end.

The US has said that it will not wait for Nepali parties to endorse the compact.

After the letter signed by Deuba and Dahal became public on February 6, the heads of three major parties had gathered in Baluwatar, where the main opposition leader, Oli, urged the ruling parties to come up with a clear position.

Meanwhile, the announcement of local elections on May 13 has also complicated ratification. Parties now see the compact through the prism of elections. Not only in the Maoist and Unified Socialist, there are also voices in the NC that it would be wise to deal with the compact after the elections.

Coalition partners Maoist Center and Unified Socialist have already proposed putting the issue on hold until after the elections. Many political leaders believe a final decision on the compact now could impact their local poll prospects.

At the same time, there is also concern about possible consequences on Nepal’s economy if the US decides to withdraw the compact. 

Government Spokesperson Gyanendra Bahadur Karki said in a recent interview that withdrawal of the compact could have repercussions on the country’s economic development. A former Nepali ambassador to the US also declined to rule out an adverse impact on the Nepali economy if the MCC falls through.

Political parties are well aware of this. They are also worried about risking Nepal-US diplomatic ties.

PM Deuba is of the view that if the MCC bill is tabled in Parliament, it will give a message that Nepal has moved a step ahead towards its ratification. Some NC leaders suspect that the US could wait if the bill is tabled in the Parliament.  

But a member of the Speaker’s secretariat says there has been no headway on tabling the bill as the UML continues to obstruct the House.

“If there is an all-party consensus, the Speaker is ready for an alternative. But right now, he firmly believes the political environment for tabling the bill has not been created,” the secretariat member says on condition of anonymity.

Amid uncertainty over the compact, politicians are busy in intra-party parleys to discuss possible way outs. The Maoist party has called its central committee meeting for February 10, with the compact among key agendas. To support compact endorsement, the party will have to change its official policy.

Several influential leaders of the Maoist party have taken a hardline position on the compact, which has put Dahal in a difficult position.

Similarly, NC and UML are also holding intra-party parleys. Except for NC, other parties are in a moral crisis due to the public posturing of their leaders against the compact.

On the one hand, they do not want to project themselves as anti-MCC, and on the other, they want to take the credit for any possible changes in the compact.

The Milan Pandey faction filed a case at the Supreme Court against Bibeksheel Party Coordinator Rabindra Mishra and the Election Commission on Wednesday. 

The Pandey faction filed the case at the apex court against Mishra and the poll body saying that the party took action against them for no reasons. 

Former party coordinator Pandey said that they moved the court alleging that the party took action against them at the direction of Mishra.

The party had expelled Pandey on December 21.

Earlier, Pandey had announced a 201-member Central Committee in the name of strengthening the party. The establishment faction, however, expelled Pandey taking this as an attempt to split the party.