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Traditionally, China has built an image in Nepal of a power that does not interfere in its political affairs. China’s approach has been cultivating ties with all political parties, with more focus on the ruling ones. That is why China has a consistent and pretty normal relations with Nepali Congress (NC) and other fringe parties, irrespective of their political ideologies.

In recent times, mainly after Xi Jinping became China’s president, there has been some shift in China’s approach to dealing with Nepali political parties, mainly Nepal Communist Party (NCP). In 2018, at the 19^th National Congress, President Xi presented his political blueprint for the next 30 years, called the Xi Jinping “Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” which has now been officially incorporated into the constitution. This ideology is known as ‘Xi Jinpingism’.

Inside China, the ideology is being taught to party leaders and cadres, bureaucrats and journalists, and it has been included in school curricula. This is not limited to China. In recent times, there has been a concerted effort to export this ideology to other countries through Communist Party of China (CPC). It may be a coincidence but just when China introduced Xi Jinpingism, Nepal saw the emergence of the powerful Nepal Communist Party (NCP). A big a section of NCP is attracted to China’s political and development models.

Post-monarchy modus operandi

China’s bid to strengthening the communist parties in Nepal began after the abolition of monarchy. During the insurgency, China did not support the Maoist party; instead they charged the Nepali Maoists of misusing the name of their Great Helmsman. China then backed the monarchy to suppress the Maoist insurgency. When the Maoists emerged as the largest party in 2008, China wanted to see a strong communist force in Nepal. Subsequently, CPC leaders also encouraged CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) to unite.

When NCP was born in 2018 after the unification of UML and Maoists, CPC proposed to orient its leaders and cadres about the thoughts of Xi Jinping. “They proposed to share his thoughts and we accepted the proposal. In the upcoming deliberations, they will share views and we will present ours,” said Devendra Poudel, a member of the NCP School Department that is responsible for political indoctrination of party rank and file.

Initially, the Chinese side had proposed the NCP school department to share its ideology and experience in running the party and government. According to Nepali leaders, the Chinese had forwarded his proposal a year ago but it was delayed in the absence of the party’s school department. “This should not be viewed as us accepting the policies of Xi Jinping. We also want to learn from the miracle development of China,” Poudel added.

This is not the first time CPC has invited dozens of NCP delegates, both youth and senior leaders, to China to train them. A few months ago, senior leader of NCP Dev Prasad Gurung-led team visited China to learn about XI’s ideology and how the party and governments there function. Currently, CPC has several training centers across the country to train both internal cadres and representatives from other countries on Xi’s ideology.

Broader implications

The latest bonhomie between the ruling communist parties of Nepal and China worries some. “NCP leaders being indoctrinated on Xi’s thoughts could further alienate a big mass in Nepal that is already suspicious of communists of any kind, especially during elections,” said Dr. Mrigendra Bahadur Karki, Executive Director of the Center for Nepal and Asian Studies (CNAS), a think-tank.

According to Karki, if Xi’s thoughts are being embraced as a counter to the Indo-Pacific Strategy, it could be counterproductive, giving the US, India and other western powers an excuse to propagate anti-China message via Nepal. But how?

“As it is a one-party state, there can be no meaningful political debates inside China. In this situation, if our ruling party embraces Xi’s thoughts, then other powers can criticize his thoughts in the name of criticizing NCP. This could create a difficult situation for China internally,” Karki clarifies.

In the past one year, there has been a series of exchanges between NCP and CPC focused on orientations and exchanging ideas. In May 2018, Deputy Director of CPC Ma Zue Song was in Kathmandu to take part in a program organized to mark the anniversary of Karl Marx’s birthday. He said that NCP could play a big role in advancing nation-building and socialist movements in South Asia. “We are ready to work with the communists and left forces around the world to observe, interpret and lead through Marxism,” he said.

After party unification senior NCP leaders such as Pushpa Kamal, Madhav Kumar Nepal, Narayan Kaji Shrestha, and Jhala Nath Khanal, have each visited China twice. Three provincial chief ministers—Mahenra Bahadur Shahi (Karnali), Prithvi Subba Gurung (Gandaki) and Shankar Pokhrel (Province 5)—have also gone to China. In April, NCP General Secretary Bishnu Poudel-led team also went to China for delegation-level talks.

There is now little doubt China wants a strong NCP-led government in order to secure its interests in Nepal.

The Chinese delegation under Foreign Minister Wang Yi was not pleased. It had come to Kathmandu to prepare the ground for President Xi Jinping’s much-discussed Nepal visit. But neither could it get the Nepali side to finalize the BRI projects Nepal wanted China to help with, nor was it assured about the ‘security preparations’ for Xi’s trip.  

Possible protests in Nepal by pro-Tibet activists or by the local Muslim community over China’s treatment of its Uighurs are a big headache for China. The Chinese delegation would not have been reassured by the small protest in front of the Chinese Embassy by a group of women, on whatever pretext, when it was in town. This is perhaps the first time that there has been a public protest in front of the Chinese Embassy during the visit of a high-level dignitary from China. The Chinese were left wondering: Even with its supposedly foolproof preparations, how could Nepal Police have failed to guard the embassy periphery?

According to high-level intelligence officials in Nepal, the Chinese side has to be fully assured that there would be no such faux pas before they give the final stamp of approval to Xi’s Nepal visit. But if he comes, it will be a momentous occasion: the first time a Chinese president will be in Nepal in 23 years, after Jiang Zemin’s 1996 trip. The exact date and duration of Xi’s trip is yet to be worked out. Probably he will come. If the Chinese are fully assured of security, he could even stay the night. If not, it would be an eight- or nine-hour visit.

In 2016, when Xi visited Bangladesh, there were speculations that he could visit Nepal too. Many reckon the visit was cancelled due to the sudden collapse of the UML-Maoist coalition government. “In 2016, powerful forces were successful in blocking Xi’s visit. But this time, he is almost sure to come,” says Tanka Karki, a former Nepali ambassador to China.  

The Chinese will push for the signing of at least one major BRI project to justify Xi’s trip. Besides that, the visit of the Chinese president could also set in motion a geopolitical tug-of-war. Its consequences could be felt far into the future.

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Xi’s route to Kathmandu

Barring a dramatic turn of events, Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to Nepal next month. To lay the ground for the visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi completed a three-day trip to Kathmandu earlier this week. In recent years, high-level Chinese officials have been coming here with increasing frequency. But Xi will be the first Chinese President to come to Nepal in 23 years since Jiang Zemin’s trip in 1996.

Government officials say the Chinese foreign minister had three broad agendas—to take stock of the preparations for Xi’s security; to explore specific agendas during XI’s visit; and to create a conducive political environment for his visit. Wang held detailed discussions with Prime Minister KP Oli and President Bidya Devi Bhandari about Xi’s visit.

“Both sides underscored the importance of the exchange of high level visits on a regular basis in order to develop mutual trust and confidence, and to further strengthen bilateral relations,” reads the statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the end of Wang’s visit. According to Nepali officials, the Chinese side will finalize the agenda and itinerary of Xi’s visit based on Wang’s inputs.  

During his recent Kathmandu trip, Wang seemed mainly concerned about the security dimension of President Xi’s Nepal visit. Former DIG of Nepal Police Hemanta Malla Thakuri believes there is no physical threat to foreign dignitaries in Nepal. But due to the recent unrest among the Uighur Muslim community in China, Thakuri adds, the Chinese may have felt some threat from this section in Nepal.

Then there is Tibet. “During any high-level visit from China, the main concern is possible protest by the Tibetan community in Nepal,” he says. “Even if there is a minor protest in which members of the Tibetan community can brandish Tibetan flags, the Chinese take it very seriously. So our security forces need to be on high alert.”

A senior intelligence officer with the National Investigation Department says the Chinese would finalize President Xi’s visit only after being completely assured. High-level security teams from China have been regularly visiting Nepal in the past few weeks. “Just to be double sure, Nepal Army will be deployed at the front row of the security arrangement,” says the NID official.

Settling for a pittance

During the Chinese foreign minister’s visit, the two countries signed three letters of exchanges: on a hospital recovery project in the district of Manang; on providing 5,000 emergency shelter tents; and on a volunteer Chinese teachers’ program. “It would have been better had these minor agreements not been signed during Wang’s visit, as the visit will be followed by Xi Jinping’s much-more consequential trip,” says a retired diplomat who has closely followed Nepal’s diplomatic history with China.

Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao did not visit Nepal during his two terms between 2003 and 2013, even though he was considered to have in-depth knowledge about Nepal and Tibet. During Hu’s tenure, Nepal was undergoing major political upheavals, such as the king’s direct rule, followed by the monarchy’s abolition, and the dissolution of the first Constituent Assembly (CA) without delivering a constitution. Now that Nepal has a semblance of political stability, both sides see it as an appropriate time for the Chinese President to pay a visit.

In April this year, President Bhandari had extended an invitation to Xi during her visit to China. Xi had responded that he attached great importance to visiting Nepal, and that he would come here at a convenient time. During the visit, Bhandari and Xi had witnessed the signing of seven bilateral agreements, including the protocol to the Nepal-China Transit and Transport Agreement.

South Asian outlier

Xi is seen as the most powerful Chinese president after Mao Zedong. Last year, the Chinese Communist Party changed its statute, paving the way for Xi to lead country for longer than his recent predecessors. Given this context, a visit by Xi will be significant, and the Nepali side has long desired it. The Chinese side, however, has generally been noncommittal, citing lack of preparations.

In 2016, when Xi visited Bangladesh, there were speculations that he could visit Nepal too. Many politicians and diplomats reckon the visit was cancelled due to the sudden collapse of the CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Centre) coalition government. Some even argue that the government was toppled to forestall Xi’s visit. “In 2016, powerful forces were successful in blocking Xi’s visit. But this time, he is almost sure to come,” says Tanka Karki, a former Nepali ambassador to China.  

In his first five-year tenure, Xi visited several other South Asian countries but not Nepal. He visited Bangladesh in October 2016, in what was the first visit by a Chinese President to Bangladesh in 30 years. During the visit, Bangladesh and China signed 27 agreements worth billions of dollars. Similarly, Xi visited Sri Lanka in 2014, and Pakistan the following year. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives have already gotten loans from China to execute projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India and Bhutan are two South Asian countries that have not joined the BRI. Several South East Asian countries have also launched infrastructure projects under the BRI framework.

BRI push

Soon after becoming Chinese president in 2013, Xi announced the mega infrastructure project, the One Belt One Road (OBOR), which was later named the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi’s signature project, it is now a major component of China’s foreign policy. So the BRI will be a major agenda during Xi’s visit to Nepal. Although Nepal signed an MoU on the BRI in 2017, there has not been much progress in selecting and implementing projects under it. Officials say preparations are underway to finalize some projects under the BRI and to form high-level mechanisms to look into BRI-related issues. Xi’s visit is expected to expedite these processes.

His visit could also strengthen bilateral ties at the top political level. Of late, China has given high priority to cultivating relations with Nepali political parties. Rail and road connectivity and Chinese investment in Nepal, including in hydropower, are potential areas of bilateral cooperation. But a major concern of the Chinese side has always been Nepal’s sluggish implementation of bilateral agreements.

Sundarnath Bhattarai of the China Study Center believes Xi’s visit would boost Nepal’s standing in the region. “China is not just our neighbor, it is an emerging global power. Xi’s visit is significant and will have wider regional implications,” he says. “The signing of the protocol to the Nepal-China Transit and Transport Agreement and some progress on railway connectivity are major achievements. Regarding railway projects, we have to try harder to bring India on board,” he adds.

Stopover or direct?

The exact date of Xi’s visit has not been finalized, but Nepali officials are confident it will happen sometime in October. What remains uncertain though is whether Xi will stop over in Kathmandu after his informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Chennai, or whether he will fly to Kathmandu directly from Beijing. It is also possible that Xi could come to Kathmandu from Tibet, where he will be in October to mark the 60^th anniversary of the ‘democratic reform’ in the Tibet Autonomous Region.

Nepali officials have told their Chinese counterparts that a stopover visit after India would not send a positive signal, and it would be preferable if Xi came to Kathmandu via Tibet or directly from Beijing. While the nature and dates of the visit are unclear, preparations are in full swing to welcome Xi in Kathmandu. Usually, the Chinese side announces dates just before a visit. For instance, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s 2012 visit was kept under wraps until the last minute.  

A crucial contradiction seems to be developing in Nepal’s relations with China. On the one hand, our political leaders never tire of highlighting all the ways in which Nepal can benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On the other, Nepal has failed to present any concrete BRI proposal that the Chinese can seriously consider. The Chinese team under Foreign Minister Wang Yi that was recently in Kathmandu was flummoxed when its Nepali negotiating counterparts could present not a single solid proposal on prospective BRI projects.

The much-ballyhooed rail link between the two countries also came up for discussions. The Chinese side asked if Nepal had any plans on the Nepal-leg of the rail line from Rasuagadhi to Kathmandu. Instead of a firm reply, the Nepali side posed a curious counter-question: Why doesn’t China conduct the DPR for the same with its own money? But how, the Chinese responded, will Nepal feel ownership of the project in which it has no investment? This time no answer was forthcoming.

High-level Nepali and Chinese officials have been meeting often of late, and each time it is the same story. Basically, Nepal wants China to do everything: come up with project plans, prepare the DPRs, and complete the proposed projects on its own. Something else happens routinely as well. For instance, the political leadership in Nepal expresses its full commitment to some BRI project. Enthused, the Chinese start preparing. Then, they meet the Nepali bureaucrats across the table.

The Nepali bureaucrats come up with a hundred reasons why the proposed project won’t fly. “Are your bureaucrats actually working for Nepal?” asks a senior Chinese official closely involved in recent Nepal-China negotiations. The common perception is that the entire Nepali bureaucracy has become pro-Chinese after the Indian blockade of 2015-16. The endless stream of pleasure trips of our bureaucrats to the Middle Kingdom only reinforces this perception. But there is clearly more to the story than meets the eye.

On the part of the Chinese, one other thing is amply clear. They are bothered by the heightened American activism in South Asia and want its partner countries in the region to keep a safe distance from the sole superpower. Chinese advice to senior communist leaders to extricate Nepal from the Indo-Pacific Strategy naturally follows. In fact, Xi is coming primarily to strengthen China’s hand in Nepal vis-à-vis the US. But is it certain that Xi will come? Not if the Chinese are not assured on a possible PR debacle.

For instance, a pro-Tibet protestor showing the Snow Lion to President Xi during his Kathmandu trip and the image being broadcast around the world. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi thus spent most of his time in Kathmandu seeking assurance that such embarrassment to the Paramount Leader will be avoided at all cost. Given China’s troubled history with its own Muslims, it fears a possible backlash from the Nepali Muslim community as well. Even the small, seemingly innocuous protest outside the Chinese Embassy during Wang’s trip was seen as a red flag in Beijing. Thus no amount of preparation is enough.

If Xi is determined to come and the Nepali political leadership committed to host him, the trip will most likely go ahead. If Xi comes, expect one Narendra Damodardas Modi to come rushing hot on his heels.

Tens of thousands of Nepali speakers in India’s north-eastern state of Assam feel let down by the upgraded National Register of Citizens (NRC) of India that was published on August 31. (Assam is the first Indian state to upgrade its NRC compo­nent.) As many as 80,000 Nepali speakers have been excluded from this NRC list and they are worried about being stateless. But Ganga Poudel, vice-pres­ident of the Gorkha Develop­ment Council, says all hope is not lost. Anyone excluded from the final list has 120 days to appeal against the decision through a foreigner’s tribunal. Poudel says he would do all he can to help those whose names did not appear on the list.

A total of around 31.1 million people in the state had applied to have their names listed, but about 1.9 million people were excluded. Most of them are people who migrated to Assam from Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Poudel says those people whose citizen­ship is questionable or whose surnames differ from those of their parents or children have been left out.

As many as 2.5 million Nepali-speaking people live in Assam. About 25 percent of them were missing from an earlier draft list. “We were confident that these names would appear on the final list, but that did not happen,” says Poudel. He adds that some may be rendered stateless if they are not able to submit certain documents to prove residency.

Indian media have men­tioned that if the victims do not get justice in international courts, they can knock on the doors of the Indian High Court and Supreme Court. Many independent bodies claim that although this option is available, as many as 25,000 Nepali-speakers would still not make it to the list. Those whose names did not appear on the list could be arrested and detained. But Assam’s Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal says that just because their names are not on the list does not mean they will be taken into custody.

Assam shares borders with Bhutan and Bangladesh and is considered a sensitive state. The Indian government claims that there is illegal trafficking of humans and animals into the state. It says the list was updated in order to check ille­gal immigrants from Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Secu­rity in Assam has been beefed up since the publication of the list.

There are Nepalis in every district of Assam. The major­ity of residents in Surajpur district are Nepalis, and there is a big group of people from western Nepal in Kamrup metropolis.

The All Assam Gorkha Stu­dent Union has asked for a thorough investigation as it believes the list is flawed. Pres­ident Prem Tamang has been protesting the process of cre­ating this list from the start, claiming that it discriminates against Nepali speakers.

According to the 2011 population census, there are about 31.1 million people in the 33 districts of Assam.