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Right or wrong, it is routine business for a Nepali prime minister to make New Delhi his first foreign port of call. And so on cue Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is visiting India from April 1-3. Covid lockdowns notwithstanding, when Deuba became PM last July, there was no enthusiasm in New Delhi to roll out a red carpet for the septuagenarian Nepali leader. Things have not changed much.

Deuba is thus unlikely to sign any important agreement. Foreign policy analyst Geja Sharma Wagle says it is more a goodwill visit to strengthen relations at the top political level (see Editorial).

The visit coincides with some vital domestic, regional, and international developments. Deuba is visiting India ahead of local polls which will soon be followed by national elections.

As India is concerned over the shape of the post-election government, say Nepali Congress leaders, the issue could figure in bilateral talks. Of late, India has adopted a hands-off approach in Nepal but it has also subtly let its distaste for a broad (Panda-hugging) left alliance be known. 

With India also closely monitoring the growing US-China competition in the Himalayas, the Indian side could convey to PM Deuba some message in this regard.

Says India-Nepal relations expert and ApEx columnist Nihar R. Nayak, India is uncomfortable with the growing strategic competition between two major world powers in the Himalayas. India expects these powers to respect India’s security concerns, he says, adding that this issue could crop up during Deuba’s Delhi trip. “India is worried that some Chinese projects in Nepal may undercut its strategic and security interests in the Himalayas. It does not want any disturbance on its northern frontier,” Nayak says.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis could also come up during discussions.

On the bilateral front, government officials say that even with low expectations, all outstanding issues will be discussed. Supply of fertilizers, connectivity projects mainly railways, Pancheshwar multipurpose development project are all on the agenda. Nepal is also preparing to raise the map dispute.

US intelligence officials have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misinformed by advisers about his military’s poor performance in Ukraine, according to the White House. The advisers are scared to tell him the truth, the intel says, Associated Press reported.

The findings, recently declassified, indicate that Putin is aware of the situation on information coming to him and there now is persistent tension between him and senior Russian military officials. 

The US believes Putin is being misled not only about his military’s performance but also “how the Russian economy is b eing crippled by sanctions because, again, his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said Wednesday.

Earlier, President Joe Biden said in an exchange with reporters that he could not comment on the intelligence.

The administration is hopeful that divulging the finding could help prod Putin to reconsider his options in Ukraine, according to a US official. The official was not authorized to comment and spoke on the condition of anonymity. The war has ground to a bloody stalemate in much of the country, with heavy casualties and Russian troop morale sinking as Ukrainian forces and volunteers put up an unexpectedly stout defense.

But the publicity could also risk further isolating Putin, who US officials have said seems at least in part driven by a desire to win back Russian prestige lost by the fall of the Soviet Union, according to the Associated Press.

“What it does is underscore that this has been a strategic blunder for Russia,” Bedingfield said of the intelligence finding. “But I’m not going to characterize how ... Vladimir Putin might be thinking about this.”

Meanwhile, Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a 55 minute call that an additional $500 million in direct aid for Ukraine was on its way. It’s the latest burst in American assistance as the Russian invasion grinds on.

Asked about the latest intelligence, Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that a dynamic within the Kremlin exists where advisers are unwilling to speak to Putin with candor.

“One of the Achilles’ heels of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems that speak truth to power or have the ability to speak truth to power, and I think that’s what we’re seeing in Russia,” Blinken told reporters during a stop in Algeria on Wednesday.

The unidentified official did not detail underlying evidence for how US intelligence made its determination.

The intelligence community has concluded that Putin was unaware that his military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. They also have determined he is not fully aware of the extent to which the Russian economy is being damaged by economic sanctions imposed by the US and allies, Associated Press reported.

The findings demonstrate a “clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information” to Putin, and show that Putin’s senior advisers are “afraid to tell him the truth,” the official said.

Biden notified Zelenskyy about the latest tranche of assistance during a call in which the leaders also reviewed security aid already delivered to Ukraine and the effects that weaponry has had on the war, according to the White House. 

Zelesnkyy has pressed the Biden administration and other Western allies to provide Ukraine with military jets, something that the US and other NATO countries have thus far been unwilling to accommodate out of concern it could lead to Russia broadening the war beyond Ukraine’s borders. 

Prior to Wednesday’s announcement of $500 million in aid, the Biden administration had sent Ukraine about $2 billion in humanitarian and security assistance since the start of the war last month.

Congress approved $13.6 billion that Congress approved earlier this month as part of a broader spending bill. Bedingfield said the latest round of financial assistance could be used by the Ukrainian government “to bolster its economy and pay for budgetary expenses” including government salaries and maintaining services, according to the Associated Press.

Ukraine’s presidential website says Zelenskyy told Biden: “We need peace, and it will be achieved only when we have a strong position on the battlefield. Our morale is firm, there is enough determination, but we need your immediate support.”

Zelenskyy in a Twitter posting said that he also spoke to Biden about new sanctions against Russia. Bedingfield said the administration is looking at options to expand and deepen current sanctions. 

The new intelligence came after the White House on Tuesday expressed skepticism about Russia’s public announcement that it would dial back operations near Kyiv in an effort to increase trust in ongoing talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Turkey.

Russian forces pounded areas around Ukraine’s capital and another city overnight, regional leaders said Wednesday, Associated Press reported.

Seven-nation regional grouping BIMSTEC on Wednesday adopted a charter to expand its overall cooperation and firmed up a master plan for transport connectivity at a virtual summit attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders of the bloc, the Press Trust of India reported.

Shortly after the Summit, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said the adoption of the charter has given the BIMSTEC an “international personality” and it reflected a significant evolution of this grouping.

Besides India, the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) comprises Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan.

Rudrenda Tandon, the Additional Secretary in the MEA looking after the BIMSTEC division, said Modi announced USD 1 million (one million is equal to ten lakhs) as an ad-hoc grant for the operational budget of the grouping’s secretariat.

He said the summit, hosted by Sri Lanka, also finalised three documents providing for the expansion of cooperation, according to the Press Trust of India .

At a media briefing, Tandon said the leaders of the BIMSTEC member countries also approved a complete reorganisation of the grouping’s cooperation activities.

Henceforth, the BIMSTEC cooperation activities will take place in seven pillars and each of the member countries will lead one pillar, Tandon said.

He said India will lead the security pillar of the BIMSTEC.

From our perspective the signing of the charter is the most important outcome, Tandon said, adding the Summit made “incremental progress” in further expansion of cooperation among the member states.

In his address, PM Modi proposed that the pace of cooperation be accelerated and the grouping should not rest after the adoption of the charter, the Press Trust of India reported.

Tandon said the prime minister also spoke about the need to move forward in areas of connectivity, marine cooperation, security and economic integration.

India has been making concerted efforts to make BIMSTEC a vibrant forum for regional cooperation as initiatives under SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) were not moving forward for a variety of reasons, according to the Press Trust of India .

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s three-day Nepal visit (March 25-27) was focused more on safeguarding China’s larger geopolitical interests than on bilateral cooperation. The readouts issued by the Chinese side during his stay as well as subsequent Chinese media reports suggest the same.

Securing the support of the South Asian countries on China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, countering America’s influence in the Himalayan region and creating a favorable political environment in Kathmandu were his key agendas. In his meetings with Nepali leaders, Wang pushed for Nepal’s ‘independent foreign policy’ and urged the country to stay away from geopolitical games—thereby becoming ‘a shining example’ of China-South Asia cooperation.

Speaking with Chinese media outlets in Beijing on March 28, the senior Chinese diplomat said there has been a general consensus among relevant countries that Russia-Ukraine disputes should be settled peacefully through dialogue, and neither war nor sanctions are the solution.

The US too is seeking the support of South Asian countries for its Russia-targeted sanctions. In Beijing, Wang said his trip to South Asia came at a time when the spillover of the Ukraine crisis is spreading, and world peace and development are facing new challenges. “Asia refuses to become a chessboard in the game between major powers, and Asian countries are by no means pawns in the confrontation between major powers,” Wang said. 

Beijing is urging small South Asian countries not to be influenced by America on Ukraine. 

Says Amish Raj Mulmi, the author of All Roads Lead North: Nepal's Turn to China, after the onset of the Ukraine crisis, China has been trying to build a new pro-Beijing consensus in South Asia. 

China, through various channels, has already conveyed its reservations over Nepal’s decision to vote against the Russian invasion at the United Nations.

Even though there is no direct mention of America in Chinese official statements, growing American influence in Nepal figured high in talks at various levels between Wang and Nepali leaders.   

In his meeting with CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Wang said: “We should be vigilant against the resurgence of the Cold War mentality and chaos in the region and jointly safeguard the good situation of regional peace, stability and development.”

“It is necessary to maintain the hard-won peace, stability and development in the region, resist the temptation to introduce bloc confrontation and create turbulence and tension in Asia,” he added. 

According to Maoist leaders, Wang also reminded Dahal of American attempts to encircle China through its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and that Nepal risked becoming a pawn in a great-power confrontation. 

Chinese experts have also tried to explain Wang’s message to South Asian countries.  

In his March 27 Global Times article, Zhao Gancheng, director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, says the US has somewhat achieved its goal of turning some of China’s neighbors against it without investing too many resources. 

“This has encouraged Washington, making it believe it can contend with Beijing. Therefore, the US will mobilize more resources and be more active in an attempt to infiltrate what it sees as China's ‘sphere of influence’,” the article says.

In Kathmandu, Wang focused his message on mitigating growing American influence after the parliamentary endorsement of the MCC Nepal compact. Additionally, he sought strong commitment from the Nepali side on the “One China” policy. 

All top politicians, including Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and President Bidya Devi Bhandari, tried to assure Wang that Nepal is committed to One-China, and will not allow anti-Chinese activities on its soil.

US-based foreign policy expert Sanjaya Upadhayay says Wang sought to impress upon Nepali leaders “the imperative of creating the necessary domestic conditions” that would discourage Nepal from becoming a geopolitical playground against China. 

He believes Wang was interested primarily in gauging Nepal’s continued commitment to its traditional foreign policy tenets amid shifting global geostrategic contours. 

“In particular, Beijing sought to determine whether Kathmandu was adjusting its outlook and—if so—whether it was doing so under unwarranted influence of third countries,” Upadhayay says. As the Nepali side stated its case, he adds, Beijing must have sought fresh assurances from Kathmandu on One-China and other specific issues of Chinese concern.

To achieve those objectives, Beijing wants a favorable internal political situation in Kathmandu. Over the past few months, the relationship between Nepali Congress-led government and Beijing has deteriorated considerably.

Beijing thinks Congress is pro-India and by extension pro-US. The ruling party, meanwhile, is suspicious of Beijing’s “proactive measures” to bring left forces together.

In his meetings with Nepali leaders, Wang conveyed that China was ready to work with all parties, irrespective of their agendas and persuasions. Unlike in the past, the Chinese side did not explicitly raise the issue of left alliance this time.  

Binoj Basnyat, strategic affairs analyst, suspects that with Nepal headed into elections, the Chinese are also concerned about the type of government that will be formed at the center and whether that government would favor them. “The political message of Wang’s visit is that unity among communist forces would be beneficial to Beijing. If that doesn’t happen, Beijing at least wants to create a favorable environment for it here.” 

Basnyat is of the view that China wants to limit the activities of international forces in Asia. 

Mulmi says Wang’s Nepal visit can be seen both as China attempting to build on its influence in smaller South Asian countries, as well as to negate its setback after the MCC compact ratification.

The visit clearly showed that Kathmandu risks becoming an epicenter of US-China rivalry in South Asia.In this fluid situation, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is traveling to India and senior American officials are soon visiting Kathmandu. Expect more turbulence in Nepal’s geopolitical weather-system.