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Bikash Sharma, a lab technician from Kawasoti municipality of Nawalpur district in Gandaki Province, encounters a barrage of fake news on his Facebook page every single day. A few days ago, when he read a post claiming alcoholics and youths in general do not get the novel coronavirus, he could only laugh. Yet this is no laughing matter.  

Nepali Online News, a Facebook group with 1.2 million members, had a recent ‘Breaking News’ from one Aichi Auto, claiming that the death toll from Covid-19 in Nepal had reached nine by May 26, five more than the official figure. Another post by ‘news36media’ said the coronavirus could be on the verge of ‘self-extinction’ as it mutates.

“Many of the posts are pure rumors. Sometimes they are funny, but often they mislead,” Sharma says, as he worries about their impact on unsuspecting people who spend hours scrolling their newsfeed. He himself spends around 3-4 hours a day on Facebook, filtering through the flood of fake information.

The use of social media has increased during the lockdown, and Facebook is easily the most popular social media platform in Nepal. According to Internet World Stats data, as of 31 January 2020, over 10.4 million Nepalis were using Facebook. 

Presently, all newspapers, TV channels, and radio stations use Facebook to promote their content. There is news update almost every second. Even too much of authentic news is problematic in these sad times, but when the authentic stuff is mixed with fake news, it can be doubly confusing. There are plenty of illegal ‘news’ portals that barrage Facebook newsfeed with fake news. In relation to the Covid-19 pandemic, UNESCO and WHO have often raised their concerns about the impact of such fake news.

Ashirbad Adhikari, an aircraft maintenance technician in Kathmandu, sees that in the haste of posting something interesting, people often post wrong information. “For example, people claim the number of corona infections has risen. Even the news portals don’t realize that basing such claim on Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT) is misleading,” he says.

Sujan Shrestha, president of Psychbigyan Network Nepal, a youth-led initiative that promotes mental health, thinks the fear created by fake news gradually erodes people’s sense of control and fosters a sense of panic. As the trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic is uncertain, people are always on the lookout for information that might make the future more certain. “Facebook newsfeed is an easy means to do that. But you may also be unnecessarily burdening your mind in the process,” Shrestha says.

This is especially problematic during the lockdown, he says, as prolonged confinement has already weakened people’s cognitive capacity.

Shrestha also mentions the danger of falling for conspiracy theories, such as Bill Gates engineering the pandemic or China creating an artificial virus to sell its products. “If an influential person posts such a conspiracy theory, a fraction of people will certainly believe it,” he adds. “And by doing so they may put their own health as well as the health of their loved ones in jeopardy.”

Pradip Dhakal, an admin of Nepali Online News, the Facebook group that has seen its fair share of fake news posted by its many members, says the act of creating and spreading fake news is a misuse of media platforms. “The registered news portals are less likely to spread fake news than the unregistered and illegal ones,” he says, adding that these illegal portals should be immediately shut. He advises people to rely only on the sites that they know are registered.

Some people blame the Facebook management for ignoring the gravity of the matter. Mark Zuckerberg, chairman and CEO of Facebook, had around a month ago assured immediate action to check the spread of fake news. He claims Facebook has marked over 4,000 pieces of Covid-19 related content as false. Yet that seems to have made little impact on creation and dissemination of fake news during these troubled times.

Over 26,000 people have entered the country from India via different border points of Sudur Paschim Province since May 14, as per security forces deployed at the border. But the provincial Social Development Ministry says only 12,367 are currently under quarantine in the province.

Locals fear that the risk of Covid-19 infection has increased as over half of the people coming from India have bypassed the two-week quarantine requirement. They are already in the villages, where there is no means to trace their health or social contacts.

On May 15 and 16, Nepali authorities had rescued 758 citizens from the ill-managed Indian quarantine posts across the border, and brought them home via Gauriphanta border point next to Dhangadhi in Kailali district. That sort of showed the way for in-bound Nepalis, and in the past two weeks, over 18,000 people have used it.

With crowds rushing to enter the country every day, there is chaos at the Gauriphanta border point these days. On May 26, some of those standing in queue fainted and mothers carrying their infants looked drained in the sun.

The District Administration Office of Kailali has ordered opening of the border from 10am till noon, but due to the long queues, it couldn’t be closed until 3pm.

Besides Gauriphanta, people are coming in via Gaddachauki of Kanchanpur, Pulghat of Darchula, and Jhulaghat of Baitadi.

The Gaddachauki border point was opened after people kept sneaking into the country via Dodhara Chandani, the Nepali village on the other side of the Mahakali. The District Administration Office of Kanchanpur has now decided to open the Gaddachauki point for four hours every day.

As illegal entries could not be stopped through the porous border, authorities thought it would be safer to allow entry and put the incoming people into quarantine. But the plan has failed.

Local government units have been assigned to manage these quarantine posts. Each ward of the municipality or rural municipality has to keep a log of people coming into the ward and put them under quarantine. But the incoming people refuse to stay there because these posts do not meet even the minimum hygiene and safety criteria. Due to their poor management, people supposed to stay there roam around in the day, go home for meals, and come back only to sleep.

The local bodies have failed to act properly, according to senior physician of Seti Zonal Hospital Prof Dr Subhesh Raj Kayastha. “It is now time for the local elected representatives to show their presence,” he says. “They should ensure that the incoming people stay in quarantine facilities.” Or the situation may soon get out of our hands, he warns.

Meanwhile, the provincial government claims all those coming from India have been quarantined. “From the border point, we put them into our vehicles and hand them over to the local bodies. The local bodies then arrange for their stay,” claims Krishna Raj Subedi, social development minister of the provincial government.

After the publication of its new political map including Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura, the government of Nepal has ramped up efforts to start formal talks with India. Nepali Ambassador to India Nilambar Acharya has been instructed to reach out to Indian officials to create an environment for such talks.

Nepal is of the view that a high-level virtual meeting could start even amid the Covid-19 pandemic in order to give a message that dialogue has begun. Such a process, for instance, could be initiated via a phone conversation between the two foreign ministers.

There is also pressure on the Indian government to sit for dialogue. Right now the foreign secretary-level dialogue is the only available bilateral mechanism to take up boundary disputes. Nepal had proposed two dates for foreign secretary-level talks after India came up with a new political map in November. India ignored these requests.

The chances of dialogue between the two countries in the near future appear slim. Retired Indian diplomats who spoke to APEX said there could be no dialogue in the current tense situation.

India has also put forth conditions for talks. The May 20 press statement of India’s Ministry of External Affairs says, “We hope that the Nepalese leadership will create a positive atmosphere for diplomatic dialogue to resolve the outstanding boundary issues.” India, however, has not clarified how such “positive atmosphere” may be created. In a previous statement, India had said that it was ready for talks after the end of the Covid-19 crisis.

Unlike the past

Sooner or later, the two sides will have to sit for talks. Unlike in the past, the Nepali society and political parties are united on the border dispute. “During the time of the Mahakali Treaty in 1996, Nepali polity and society were divided. They were also divided at the time of constitution drafting in 2015. The situation is entirely different now,” says geopolitical analyst Tika Dhakal. This, in his view, has given the Nepali government greater confidence to negotiate. “There should be negotiations at all possible levels. It is time to activate all bilateral mechanisms, including the meeting of foreign secretaries,” he advises. A series of discussions at the bureaucratic level, he adds, can lay the ground for higher-level talks.

Dialogue can take place at various levels. The two foreign secretaries can immediately meet. The Nepal Army (NA) may also have a role given its ‘special relationship’ with the Indian Army. During the 2015-16 blockade, the Nepal Army had played the crucial role of getting its Indian counterpart to successfully lobby with the Indian government to lift the blockade.

Former Brigadier General of Nepal Army Umesh Bhattarai differs. “In 2015, the Indian Army was not involved in the blockade but in Kalapani it is directly involved. So army-level talks is not a viable option this time,” he says. Bhattarai is of the view that the Nepal Army should rather show its presence in the Kalapani area.

Where’s the will?

“We have sufficient proof that these territories belong to Nepal. So why not try to convince the Indian side on the negotiation table?” Bhattarai asks. After the incorporation of the new map in the constitution, it will have the ownership of all parliamentary parties and they will be bound to have a common stand on Kalapani. Sufficient proof and a common stand, Bhattarai reckons, will help Nepal’s cause at the negotiating table.

On the other hand, India is hardening its position. In the past, India had recognized Kalapani as a disputed territory. But after the publication of its new political map in November last year, India claims this is now an entirely Indian territory.

Nepal on the other hand is confident that it will be able to convince India of why the new map had to be published. Reportedly, Prime Minister KP Oli is not in a mood to further provoke India and wants immediate dialogue to defuse the tension.

Boundary disputes are an old problem between the two countries. Experts say this is the perfect time to resolve it, as both the prime ministers have strong mandates. There is strong support in Nepal for Oli government’s efforts to resolve the border issue, and Modi, likewise, is in a position to make hard decisions. But then do they have the political will to settle Kalapani?

The United States has offered Nepal $500 million through its the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for the construction of power transmission lines and strategic roads. The Nepali parliament must approve the agreement before implementation. A pre-condition to the agreement is a cross-border transmission line that will connect Indian and Nepali power markets.

The debate on the MCC compact has ignored the impact cross-border transmission lines will have on the growth of hydropower in Nepal. Such cross-border lines will undermine the long-term prospects for new hydro plants in Nepal and make us entirely reliant on power imports from India.   

An internal task force of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) reportedly found that the MCC’s support is part of the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and would undermine Nepal’s sovereignty. The taskforce’s findings are as much a broader indictment of all aid in Nepal as it is about the MCC itself.

Aid always comes with conditions and influences. Take procurement rules. When aid money is used, Nepal is often required to adopt procurement rules of the donor agency. Nepalis cannot challenge those rules: our courts will say that is outside their jurisdiction; the government will say, “what can we do, it is their rules!”

Procurement is just an example. There are many other rules and conditions that donors impose when disbursing their aid. But donors also have a legitimate right to safeguard the interests of their sponsors.  

Most aid invariably involves loss of sovereignty in some form. If we are not ready for a broader rethink of how we use aid, why single out the MCC? Rather, we should seek to utilize aid more effectively. Deploy it in ways that directly advance our development so that one day we can break free of the need for aid.

Where the MCC fails

The MCC compact requires Nepal to build a transmission line connecting Butwal in Nepal with Gorakhpur in India. This is intended to enable export of Nepal’s power to India. Such cross-border transmission lines connect the two power markets. It opens electricity trade for both countries. While Nepal can access India’s power markets, India can also access Nepal’s.

Unless Nepal sells its electricity dirt cheap—practically free—there is no way Nepal’s power can compete on price against India’s. No matter whether it is the wet or dry season, Nepali power will almost always be more expensive than that in India.

Recognizing that cheaper Indian power will be available to Nepal, investors will pull back from investing in large hydropower plants in Nepal. Small hydro plants may still be built, mostly for localized domestic consumption. But the contention that Nepal can attract large investments and generate thousands of megawatts to sell to India is based on faulty assumptions.

Interconnected power markets will increase India’s hold over Nepal’s energy sector. Investments in new hydro plants in Nepal will then require the explicit approval of Indian power market authorities and the implicit approval of its government.

There are smarter ways for Nepal to tap into India’s power market. Dedicated transmission lines that connect hydro plants directly to the Indian market, rather than cross-border transmission lines which connect Indian and Nepali power grids, is one way out. Dedicated transmission lines protect Nepali power markets against cheaper Indian power, thus allowing for domestic growth, while also providing opportunities for power exports to India.

Ten years hence

“The MCC project focuses on constructing lines that will bring Nepal’s power to the consumers who will pay Nepal good money for it. It is a simple fact of geography and economics that means India,” US Ambassador to Nepal Randy Berry wrote in an op-ed [Republica, 3 Oct 2019].

Fast forward ten years. Nepal’s hydro capacity is hovering around 2,500 MW, well below the national goal of 15,000 MW. Meanwhile, electricity imports from India meet 70-80 percent of Nepal’s power demand.

At that point, we could remind ourselves about what the ambassador had said: “the simple fact of geography and economics” will mean that India would pay “good money” for Nepali power exports. And we could ponder: “So, where are all our hydropower dollars?”

But then it will be too late. Let’s request the Government of Nepal to conduct a credible and independent evaluation of the impacts that cross border transmission lines will have on the growth of Nepal’s power sector.

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