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On the eve of the President’s visit, how is Beijing looking at developments in Nepal?
With the intent of building mutual understanding and developing greater cooperation with their neighbors, the Chinese are proposing a ‘win-win’ formula. Some Chinese officials say, albeit indirectly, that Asia should lead the world. It’s certainly true the Chinese are enjoying rapid prosperity. Driven by feelings of nationalism and ‘Asia first’, they are pursuing development on a war footing. They see all this as a step toward global supremacy.
Based on my conversations with Chinese officials and academics here, I sense that China is hungry for global leadership. To some extent, it has embraced western ways and liberalized its society. Still, Chinese leaders are not used to listening to any kind of criticism. They may not say it, but their displeasure is reflected in their faces.
Claiming they are already established in Europe, America and Africa, the Chinese are now eying the markets of South Asia and West Asia (aka Middle East). To that end, they have chosen Nepal as a ‘launch pad’—even though they accept this is a daunting task. There may be another reason why they picked Nepal. Until recently, the Chinese were aloof with Nepal’s domestic politics, but they are now a force to reckon with in almost every sphere of Nepali politics and economy. The calculation could be that they are well-placed to influence events here.
China has been making a case for greater connectivity between South Asia, South East Asia and other regions through railways. It is actively working on reviving the old Silk Route and connecting with South Asian and South East Asian countries. China’s haste is evident; it wants to rapidly expand its market, and subsequently its supremacy, in these regions.
China intends to enhance regional and global connectivity, which it sees as key to development, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The trilateral trick
Speaking to some journalists from Nepal, Singapore, The Philippines, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Mongolia and Myanmar in the last week of March, Zhang Zhixin, Division Director of Asian Affairs at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said his country is keen on promoting mutual collaboration, development, peace and prosperity. He said China is looking to connect with Nepal via railways and expressed his happiness that the project to extend the rail link from Kerung to Kathmandu has been discussed at the highest level. “But such a costly project will not be feasible with grants alone,” he said, while also pointing out the importance of expanding road networks between the two countries.
In reference to the Indo-Pacific Strategy being pushed by the US, Professor Zhu Caihau said China is more concerned about charting its own path than competing with America. “It’s not for China to talk about the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. The onus is rather on individual countries to study it.”
What about accusations of a debt trap that China faces? “The BRI has been connecting maximum numbers of countries. It is not only a transport network but also an economic one. China takes into account what its neighbors want and offers help accordingly,” says Zhu.
She stressed that China is particularly interested in lifting Asian countries up. Speaking about Nepal, she said, “If Nepal plays its part well, the concept of trilateral cooperation between China, Nepal and India can succeed.”
Although India hasn’t signed on to the BRI yet, the Chinese are confident that the Indians will eventually come around. Senior Researcher Me Xinyu said, “China can move ahead only with the help of its neighbors and friends”. Citing the example of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), he said, “Of the 22 projects, nine have been completed and 13 are in progress. The project has created 70,000 jobs for Pakistanis.” He said he was saddened by the negative publicity around the BRI projects in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. “There is such publicity even in Nepal. The problems arose not because of the BRI, but because of internal reasons in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”
Qi Xin, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Economy and Trade Cooperation under the BRI, said trilateral cooperation between China, Nepal and India would provide an easy means for Nepal to pursue development. “Transport facility, fuel supply, free trade and infrastructure development will all improve if trilateral cooperation moves ahead.” Almost all Chinese participants said there would be no problems if Nepal deals with its two neighbors on an equal footing.
China seems hungry for global leadership and has embraced western ways to some extent
Although India hasn’t signed on to the BRI yet, the Chinese are confident that the Indians will eventually come around
Always a yam?
During the 1962 Sino-India war, India was concerned that Nepal was covertly supporting China. There were similar fears in 1973 when Nepal accepted Chinese aid for the construction of the Ring Road in Kathmandu. Westerners share the Indian suspicion that Nepal leans toward China. To dispel such doubts, some Chinese recommend that Nepal lay stress on trilateral cooperation, which they take as a part of the BRI.
During the last days of the Rana rule, in April 1947, US President Harry Truman had sent to King Tribhuwan a letter that explicitly recognized Nepal’s independence. At the time, India had the support of another superpower, the Soviet Union. Since that time, Nepal has been a geopolitical pawn in big-power rivalry.
Perhaps we can make the Chinese see that American presence in Nepal predates the start of the communist rule in their country, and Nepal will never allow its soil to be used for any anti-China activity. The Americans too could be more receptive to the idea of close cooperation between two age-old neighbors and the huge benefits that closer Nepal-China ties offer to a poor, landlocked country. The Indians, for their part, should be made to understand how serious Nepal is about trilateral cooperation and turning the country into a ‘vibrant economic bridge’.
Raute children studying to get jobs
Lalit Bahadur Budha, Surkhet
I witnessed a curious scene a couple of weeks ago when I visited a Raute settlement in Ratekhola in the mid-western hilly district of Surkhet. Sitting on a river bank, Raute children were learning Nepali alphabets. Some were sitting in a circle and singing “Kapuri Ka”, a famous children’s rhyme. A few others were writing. They were also learning English alphabets.
Raute children are fearful that their Chief might see them if they study near their settlement, so they go a little farther away to the banks of the Bheri River. “If our Chief comes to know about this, he will get angry. He tells us not to study but we have gone against his command,” says Birkha Bahadur Shahi sitting with his friends on the river banks. Nobody in Birkha’s family is literate; in fact, they believe studying is sinful.
'There was a time when our Chief used to disapprove of us wearing slippers. But now we are wearing shoes. Times are changing. Soon we will also get to go to school'
Dish Bahadur ShahiA Raute adolescent
Raute children, until some time back, used to get scared when they saw strangers. They hesitated to speak to anyone from outside their community. But with time they are becoming more outgoing and gregarious. Besides socializing with people from outside their community, these children are also keen on studying.
Two teachers have been assigned by the Social Service Center, an NGO, to teach the Raute children. “We are learning Nepali and English alphabets. Soon we will start learning numbers,” says Birkha Bahadur. “Eventually, I want to become a doctor. Or maybe a driver.”
Durga Khatri, one of the two teachers, says there has been a noticeable change in the children’s behavior since they began their studies. “They are showing greater interest in learning and are also more careful about cleanliness,” she says.
Raute children tell visitors about their dream of going to school and getting a job
As Rautes are a nomadic tribe, Khatri says she follows the children wherever they go. “But we have to persuade the Rautes to settle in one place, which will help get their children to school. It might take time, but it is not impossible,” says Khatri.
Deepak Shahi, a Raute teenager who cannot go to school although he wants to, says, “Now we need to study; otherwise we will not get jobs.” He talks about his dream of becoming his group’s leader when he gets older and the changes he intends to introduce. “When I become Chief, I will ensure all children in my group go to school.”
Every day, the Raute settlement attracts a number of visitors. While some go there just to take photos, others visit to learn more about the nomadic group. Children in the settlement tell them about their dreams of going to school and getting a job one day. People are awestruck when they hear this.
“Now it is hard to find game in the forest. And felling trees is strictly forbidden. So it is important that we study,” says Dish Bahadur Shahi, another teenager from the settlement. “I want to go to school and join the police force when I grow up. There was a time when our Chief used to disapprove of us wearing slippers. But now we are wearing shoes. Times are changing. Soon we will also get to go to school.”
Tornado survivors struggle to get back on their feet
It’s been almost two weeks since a windstorm wrecked havoc in Bara and Parsa, two districts in the central plains. House roofs blew away; crops were destroyed. Around 30 people lost their lives, and at least 1,000 people were rendered homeless. The poor endured the brunt of the disaster.
The victims suffered throughout the night of March 31. When they saw a helicopter in the sky, a ray of hope emerged. But the chopper carrying Prime Minister KP Oli did not land. Oli was there just for an aerial inspection. Unlike the chopper, aid did not arrive swiftly. Only on the fifth day were security personnel seen carrying out rescue operations in Bharwalia, one of the most affected places in Bara. In one small settlement there, seven people had lost their lives, dozens were injured, and yet no help was forthcoming for four days.
When help finally arrived, well-dressed aid workers were found taking selfies—even when victims were still crying next to their loved ones who lay dead. There was no one in the village to carry away the dead bodies. Now there is a steady stream of vehicles, big and small, ferrying in plenty of relief materials. Still, many victims are yet to get any help. There is a clear lack of coordination among government bodies.
“Aid has been politicized. Those with the right connections got relief materials from multiple agencies and hid them. But many real victims did not get anything,” laments Arjun Patel, a local of Bharwalia. Another local, Sunita Yadav, says, “It’s been many days since the disaster struck, but real victims are still without decent shelter. Despite a steady stream of relief materials, it’s sad that most victims are still having to spend the night amid the ruins of their houses.”
Every year, the country is hit by one natural calamity or another. In the immediate aftermath, there is plenty of talk about disaster preparedness. But the talk soon fizzles out. The same pattern repeats when the next disaster strikes.
The provincial government announced Rs 300,000 aid package for each family that lost a member
Everyone should do their bit in a time of crisis. But what we saw in Bara and Parsa was a political tug-of-war. “We did our level best. Several officials from Kathmandu flew in for a while but did not coordinate with us. Provincial officials showed a bit more concern,” says Amiri Lal Prasad, chairperson of Feta rural municipality in Bara. “We are sad with the federal government’s delay in timely rescue and relief. But we are also pleased that Nepal Army has been entrusted with rebuilding houses for the victims.”
But Chandra Kishore, a journalist who follows Madhesi politics, is not happy about army deployment for construction. “Isn’t this a purely civilian task?” he asks.
“We have three tiers of elected government now. But the federal and provincial governments failed to coordinate well with the local bodies in carrying our rescue, relief and rehabilitation operations,” he says. Chandra Kishore added that the provincial government was too focused on distribution and the federal government couldn’t resist the temptation to score political points. “The federal government should have declared a disaster zone and set up an office in Kalaiya [in Bara] headed by a federal minister. That would have helped get timely food and medicine to survivors.”
The provincial government announced Rs 300,000 aid package for each family that lost a member. Other political leaders announced financial help of their own, even as it remains unclear how this aid will be channeled to victims. The provincial government said it was disappointed the federal government did not declare a day of national mourning.
Two divided houses
The Nepal Communist Party is now a formidable political entity, with absolute hold over the federal government as well as six of the seven provincial governments. It also controls most local level units. And yet it is a divided house. Although it has been a year since the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist) formally united, old divisions have been hard to bridge. The trust deficit between the leaders from the two former parties remains strong. And even senior leaders in the ex-UML party suspect Co-chairman and Prime Minister KP Oli of striving to cut them to size ahead of the next general convention.
According to insiders, Oli wants to maintain the status quo to retain his hold. “Of the 45 standing committee members, 13 are hardcore Oli supporters who are either in government or in top party positions. Oli does not want to change this favorable setup,” says a senior NCP leader, requesting anonymity. Other senior leaders like Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal would like to tweak this status quo to their own advantage going into the general convention.
If the divisions within the NCP are largely the product of party unification, those within the Nepali Congress have older origins. After the passing of Girija Prasad Koirala in 2010, no single leader has been able to command the party well. Current Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba has lost the trust of the party’s rank and file following a humiliating defeat in the 2017 elections under his watch. The 73-year-old Ram Chandra Poudel still harbors hopes of getting to lead the party, if not the country, by outwitting Deuba. Challenging them for party leadership will be the Koirala faction that continues to believe in the “natural right” of a Koirala to lead the NC.
But no top NC leader “seems keen on reforming the party in terms of ideology and organizational structures,” says Puranjan Acharya, a political analyst who closely follows the NC’s internal dynamics. “They only want to appoint their near and dear ones in key posts to strengthen their hold.” As in the NCP, so in the NC.
Race to the bottom
Both the ruling Nepal Communist Party and the main opposition Nepali Congress are beset by troubling internal disputes that don’t augur well for the two parties or for the country
Power tussles continue to hinder unity of the ruling communist party
On the first anniversary of the formal merger between the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist), intra-party rift in the unified Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has further widened as rival factions grapple to cement their hold.
Due to the tussle between the three main party factions—led by Prime Minister and Co-chairman KP Sharma Oli, senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and Co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ respectively—pressing unification issues are yet to be resolved. Other senior leaders such as former Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal, Bam Dev Gautam and Narayan Kaji Shrestha are also displeased at what they see as their systematic sidelining.
The likes of Yogesh Bhattarai and Ghanashyam Bhusal are also publicly criticizing party leadership for its supposed failure to maintain internal democracy. But there is essentially a three-way competition among Oli, Dahal and Nepal as other leaders do not have much hold in party structures to challenge them ahead of the party’s next General Convention.
According to insiders, Oli wants to maintain the status quo to retain his hold. “Out of 45 standing committee members, 13 are hardcore Oli supporters who are either in government or in top party positions. Oli does not want to change this favorable setup,” says a senior NCP leader, requesting anonymity. “Right now PM Oli’s only goal is to keep Dahal happy so as to forestall any problem in government functioning,” says the leader. There is also a lack of coordination between the party and the government. Further, Oli wants to weaken other factions by picking leaders close to him in district- and local-level structures.
Now, it seems that there is convergence of mind between Oli and Dahal on party- and government-related issues. Dahal’s first plan is to gradually amass power both within the government as well as in the party by appeasing Oli. So he supports all of Oli’s decisions without consulting other party members, says a leader. However, the real test of Oli-Dahal bonhomie will come only after a year and a half because there has been a ‘gentleman’s understanding’ between the two leaders to share power after two and a half years of government formation. Dahal will then seek the post of either party chairman or prime minister, say leaders.
Other senior NCP leaders are also displeased at what they see as their systematic sidelining
According to insiders, Oli wants to maintain the status quo to retain his hold
Another game Dahal is playing, according to leaders, is creating distance between Oli and Madhav Nepal. “When Dahal meets Nepal he talks about Oli’s monopoly and when he meets Oli he advises him to be firm and bold,” says a senior leader close to Nepal. To take over party leadership or government, Dahal needs either complete support of the Oli faction or support from the leaders of both the Nepal and Oli factions.
The Madhav Kumar Nepal-led faction, however, is struggling to keep its strength intact. This faction believes it will benefit from possible friction between Oli and Dahal. It complains that leaders close to it are deliberately sidelined in party structures, in selection of ministers and in other political appointments. When the party’s Standing Committee picked the province in-charge, assistant in-charge, chairman and secretary, Nepal had registered a note of dissent.
So, the only priority of the Nepal faction is to keep its position intact because there are fears that Oli and Dahal could poach its leaders. This faction is closely watching the unfolding Oli-Dahal dynamics. Of the 77 districts, the Nepal faction commands almost half the districts committees. A leader from the Nepal side says his faction is no threat to Oli and the real threat to the prime minister comes from Dahal.
NCP Central Committee member Bishnu Rijal says discussions are underway to manage differences but there is still a lot of uncertainty. “The main problem is that top leaders accepted big responsibilities after party unification but then failed to carry out those responsibilities,” he says. “Due to mismanagement, even the province-level committees are not functioning effectively,” he adds.
Last year on May 17, the two parties had decided to unify after their successful electoral alliance. Besides pending organizational issues, a political document outlining party ideology is yet to be settled owing to differences between the former UML and the Maoists. In the initial months, the UML was not ready to recognize the ‘people’s war’. Later, it was mentioned in the political document but differences over the exact wording remain. It has been more than six months since the document was finalized and submitted to the two co-chairmen. Similarly, the taskforce formed to resolve unification disputes was dissolved, and the final word on the merger was left for Dahal and Oli to decide.
The ‘Grand Old Party’ in no less of a mess
The main opposition Nepali Congress, which is supposed to question the government and hold it to account, is also mired in internal disputes.
The seed of animosity among party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, senior leader Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula was sown after the party’s humiliating defeat in the 2017 parliamentary elections. And differences between them continue to grow. The rift, according to leaders, has serious repercussions. Soon after the elections, both the Poudel and Situala camps had urged Deuba to take moral responsibility for the defeat and step down. Deuba did not pay heed.
First, the party has failed to play the role of effective opposition in the parliament. There are no discussions and preparations in the party about taking a uniform and consistent position on key national issues. Leaders cite certain examples to highlight the party’s chaotic state. When the government struck the 11-point agreement with secessionist leader CK Raut, NC Spokesperson Bishwa Prakash Sharma and party President Deuba welcomed it. The very next day, the party changed its position and there were separate versions coming from top leaders.
Similarly, when the government decided to ban the activities of the Biplab-led Maoist party, NC President, while speaking with reporters in Biratnagar, welcomed the decision. Later, the party urged the government to resolve the issue through talks. These two instances clearly show that the party is divided and struggling to make its stand clear on key national issues.
Second, as the largest opposition party, the NC has failed to bring other parties outside the government together to exert pressure on the government to correct its mistakes. There is no coordination among party leaders on how to play an effective role in the parliament. Third, strengthening the party organization is the need of the hour but that is not happening; instead the rift at the top is percolating to the grassroots level, affecting party functioning.
Verbal wars between top leaders have escalated too. A few weeks ago, party President Deuba publicly said that Shekhar Koirala does not have ‘any status’ in the party, warning him not to speak against him. In response, Koirala said he was born in a family with solid political culture and would not stoop to Deuba’s level.
“None of its top leaders seems keen on reforming the party in terms of ideology and organizational structures. They only want to appoint their near and dear ones in key posts to strengthen their hold,” says Puranjan Acharya, political analyst who closely follows the NC’s internal dynamics.
There was a tussle among rival factions over the appointment of the party’s disciplinary committee. Lately, disputes have surfaced over appointments to the Kendriya Karya Sampadan Samiti, a party committee entrusted with vital decisions in the absence of the Central Working Committee. After a long debate, Deuba, Poudel and Situala have reached a tentative agreement.
With the continuing tussle among the three leaders, another senior leader Shekhar Koirala is busy shoring up support for his own likely bid for party president ahead of the next general convention. Of late, leaders from the Koirala family— Shekhar, Shashank and Sujata—are coming closer.
Party disputes do not end here. There is growing dissatisfaction among district presidents as well. In the third week of December last year, the party’s Mahasamiti meeting was held in order to resolve intra-party disputes and amend the party statute to adapt to a federal setup.
Among others, the Mahasamiti meeting endorsed a provision that all party leaders should be elected from the grassroots level for them to be eligible as general convention representatives. However, the Central Working Committee rejected the decision and endorsed a provision whereby CWC members would nominate themselves as convention representatives. The CWC meeting took the decision on a majority basis and the Poudel faction registered a note of dissent.
Around four dozen district presidents have been putting pressure on party leadership to correct this erroneous decision. “We will launch a signature campaign in all 77 districts to call for a special general convention if our demands are not fulfilled,” says NC leader Madhu Acharya who is coordinating the gathering of the NC district presidents. “We demand inner-party democracy be maintained and all leaders face party elections to become convention representatives,” says Acharya.
Within one year, the party will have to conduct its 14th general convention to elect new leadership. Deuba is fighting for party president again. Sitaula and Poudel are already in the race. Of late, Shekhar and other members of the Koirala family also seem interested. So there is a sort of competition to discredit each other ahead of the general convention, which is unlikely to stop in the coming days.
