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Four years ago, Madhav Kumar Nepal and his team left the CPN-UML, citing the lack of intra-party democracy and Party Chairperson KP Sharma Oli’s monopoly over the party and government. They also opposed the dissolution of Parliament, siding instead with Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal.

Ironically, Nepal, now leading the CPN (Unified Socialist), faces similar accusations from his own senior leaders. Although the Special Court has filed corruption cases against him, he has refused to step down as party chair. In 2008, Nepal had resigned from the UML chairpersonship, taking responsibility for the party’s poor performance in the first Constituent Assembly elections. Today, his party is already weak, and growing internal rifts threaten to worsen its position ahead of upcoming local and national elections. Many leaders and cadres are preparing to return to the UML, seeing no future in the CPN (US). Meanwhile, the UML is actively working to lure them back.

Inside the party, a two-line struggle has emerged between Nepal and senior leader Jhala Nath Khanal. A few weeks ago, Khanal publicly admitted that the party split could not be justified, a sentiment echoed by several leaders. This angered Nepal, who suggested Khanal leave the party, claiming he had no political or moral grounds to remain. Khanal, in turn, has hardened his stance, calling on Nepal to step down due to the corruption case and proposing the appointment of an acting chair. Dissatisfaction has spread within the party over Nepal’s refusal to relinquish leadership.

A new twist emerged when former senior UML leader Bam Dev Gautam, who had maintained an independent position since the 2021 split, joined the CPN (US). Initially, Gautam wanted to rejoin the UML, but Oli did not welcome him. Now in the CPN (US), Gautam says he has requested the role of organizational head, but the leadership has yet to take a call on his request. He has since aligned with Khanal in pressuring Nepal, and the two have held multiple rounds of talks.

Nepal remains firm that splitting from the UML was the right choice. “We took the right steps as we stood against those who breached the constitution. We came to the streets, and we knocked on the court’s door. The decision to split the party is justified,” he said. In response to the mounting pressure, he has postponed key party meetings. Meanwhile, talks between the CPN (US) and the
CPN (Maoist Centre) are ongoing. The Maoists have formally proposed party unification, though the CPN (US) has yet to decide.

This week, Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Ghana Shyam Bhushal held lengthy discussions, although Shrestha is not officially authorized to negotiate unification. However, Maoist Chair Dahal has told his party that talks with Nepal are progressing positively. The CPN (US), despite having 10 seats in the national parliament, has yet to gain national party status. On Saturday, Nepal and Khanal met for over an hour to resolve their differences, but made no progress. The widening rift within the CPN (US) is likely to benefit the CPN-UML, which continues working to draw away its leaders and cadres.

The main opposition, CPN (Maoist Center), concluded its Standing Committee meeting, which witnessed an intense exchange of words between Party Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal, his supporters, and Janardhan Sharma, who is attempting to position himself as a potential successor to Dahal. However, Sharma’s colleagues within the party sided with Dahal, preventing him from consolidating influence. As a result, Dahal has emerged even stronger and is likely to retain his grip on the party for at least the next 10 years.

The internal rift within the Rastriya Prajatantra Party has escalated, with a rival faction led by Dhawal Shumsher Rana launching parallel activities. Rana, who plans to contest the party presidency, has been actively consolidating support by highlighting the weaknesses of the incumbent president, Rajendra Lingden, who is seeking re-election. The long-standing internal feud has deepened due to differences over the royalist movement that gained traction during the winter and spring but has since lost momentum.

The CPN-UML is preparing for its upcoming statute convention. Former President Bidya Devi Bhandari is reportedly seeking involvement in the convention, but party leaders maintain that her chapter is effectively closed. Bhandari and her close associates are said to be planning a future political strategy after her party membership was revoked. Her supporters are also reportedly working to raise the issue at the convention and are organizing separate activities within the party.

CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Dahal has continued his longstanding effort to unify fringe communist parties. He is currently in talks with Netra Bikram Chand, who leads a breakaway Maoist faction. However, the CPN (Unified Socialist), led by Madhav Kumar Nepal, has rejected Dahal’s unification proposal. This is in line with Dahal’s traditional approach of reaching out to smaller parties when he finds himself out of power.

Within the Nepali Congress, dissatisfaction over the performance of the NC–CPN-UML coalition government has become routine. Senior NC leaders continue to voice criticism. Meanwhile, the Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party have been obstructing Parliament sessions, demanding the formation of a parliamentary committee to investigate the visa scam. In every session, lawmakers from both parties walk in only to walk out in protest. Despite this, the ruling parties have shown little interest in addressing their demands.

The upcoming by-election in Rupandehi-3 for a seat in the House of Representatives has become a prestige battle for both traditional and emerging political parties. The NC and UML are keen to win to reaffirm public trust, while newer parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party are eager to claim the seat as proof of growing momentum in their favor. Some independents and minor parties are in quiet negotiations to form an alliance against mainstream candidates. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party is also striving to retain its presence. All parties are currently focused on finalizing their candidates.

Bagmati Province, long marked by instability, appointed a new chief minister this week. NC leader Indra Bahadur Baniya replaced Bahadur Singh Lama, who is also from the NC. Although this shift has triggered some discontent within the party, it is unlikely to have a major impact on national politics or broader NC dynamics. Except for Bagmati, most provinces have seen relative stability after the NC and UML formed a coalition government.

Preparations are underway for Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s visit to New Delhi, though dates have not yet been confirmed. According to media reports, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is expected to visit Nepal next week to formally extend the invitation. Misri has been engaging with a broad range of government officials and political leaders. With two cross-party delegations recently visiting New Delhi, bilateral engagement has noticeably intensified.

Prime Minister Oli also addressed the third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LDCs) in Turkmenistan this week. In his remarks, he outlined the major challenges these countries face, including lack of direct sea access, high transit costs, weak infrastructure, long and uncertain transit routes, limited market access, overdependence on a narrow range of exports, and vulnerability to global shocks and climate change-induced disasters.

He emphasized that the trade and transit rights of landlocked developing countries are a moral responsibility of the global community. He called for greater solidarity, enhanced financial and technological support, and fairer trade terms and transit regimes.

Nepal and China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries this week. At a commemorative event, Prime Minister Oli reaffirmed Nepal’s commitment to the one-China policy and highlighted the countries’ “time-tested” friendship. Over seven decades, he said, Nepal-China ties have deepened, rooted in mutual trust and guided by shared values. He added that China has consistently respected Nepal’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence.

The special investigation committee tasked with probing the controversial amendment of the Federal Civil Service Bill, particularly the “cooling-off period” clause, has submitted its report to House Speaker Devraj Ghimire. The report names two key individuals responsible for the tampering.

Meanwhile, Ram Hari Khatiwada, Chair of the State Affairs and Good Governance Committee, is under pressure to resign over his alleged role in the controversy. The Rastriya Swatantra Party has demanded his resignation, but the Nepali Congress has not taken a public position. In a related development, the government’s failure to advance the Education Bill is expected to provoke renewed protests from teachers. Significant disagreements persist between the NC and UML over the bill's contents.

The Election Commission is working on a new regulation that would give sweeping oversight powers to the bureaucracy for monitoring and evaluating political parties. Most parties have condemned the move as unconstitutional and an attempt to control party activity. Given the widespread criticism, the proposal is likely to be revised.

Lastly, the National Examination Board (NEB) published the results of the Grade 12 examinations today. Of the 396,347 students in the regular category, 61.17 percent passed, while 36.49 percent of partial examinees were successful. The Board reported that 38.83 percent of regular students received a “non-grade” result in the exams held this May.

This is yet another indication of a resource-rich republic performing well below par for reasons best known to its ruling clique.

In recent years, Nepal has witnessed exponential growth in the use of various social media platforms. The most popular social media platforms include Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), TikTok, Instagram, Snapchat, Instagram and LinkedIn. Among these, Facebook maintains strong dominance over the Nepali social media landscape. According to data from the NapoleonCat, there were 16,479,500 Facebook users in Nepal as of Aug 2024, accounting for 51.6 percent of the population. Of these, 55.9 percent were male.

However, Facebook’s user base is gradually declining as adult users shift toward TikTok and GenZ increasingly favors platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Meanwhile, X is gaining popularity, particularly among news-savvy and politically-engaged users. But it has also become a tool for political propaganda, with ‘cyber armies’ from various political parties engaging in online smear campaigns and character assassination. This toxic environment is pushing intellectuals and thoughtful users away from the platform.

LinkedIn, on the other hand, is growing steadily in popularity among professionals seeking networking and career development opportunities. The spread of misinformation, disinformation, hate speech and cybercrime has become a pressing issue globally. Many countries are grappling with how to regulate social media in ways that respect freedom of speech while addressing these concerns. While many European nations have developed balanced approaches, several South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, are using social media regulations to suppress political opposition. 

Nepal is no exception. For over 15 years, authorities have misused Section 47 of the Electronic Transaction Act to arrest journalists and silence critics. Recently, this trend has intensified, with ruling party leaders increasingly targeting those who voice dissent. Criticisms of the government or political parties are often misclassified as fake news or hate speech, even when it clearly is not. This raises concerns that new laws may also be exploited for similar purposes.

In February, the government introduced the Social Media Act Bill in the National Assembly, the upper house of the country’s federal parliament. The Bill has sparked public debate due to several fundamental flaws. The first and foremost is the flawed legislative process itself: government officials involved in consultations have adopted a narrow, bureaucratic perspective.

There is a belief within bureaucracy that regulation can be achieved by simply creating a department. This approach fails to recognize that regulating digital platforms is far more complex than overseeing traditional media like radio, television or print which are historically governed by the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology and its subordinate bodies.

Social media regulation is multi-faceted and far-reaching. No state agency can realistically monitor an entire population. Yet the ministry appears to consult only with stakeholders like the Federation of Nepalese Journalists (FNJ), organizations of journalists affiliated with major political parties and a handful of non-governmental organizations close to the ruling parties. Independent academics and experts outside the political sphere are largely excluded from the process.

This issue is not limited to social media bills; similar problems exist in other media-related legislation. While parliament has the authority to correct fundamental flaws, lawmakers often lack necessary expertise. Many rely on briefings from NGOs. This limited input, combined with their often weak academic backgrounds, proves insufficient. Lawmakers frequently raise concerns merely to appease journalists rather than engaging meaningfully in the legislative process.

From top to bottom, the bill is riddled with problems. The preamble fails to affirm commitment to international treaties and conventions and other legal instruments to which Nepal is a party. The country has signed international treaties and conventions expressing its full commitment to upholding freedom of speech and expression. But the principles laid out by those international conventions often clash with the narrow understanding held by many Nepali politicians who view criticism as a threat rather than a democratic right.

The 2015 constitution, like its previous versions, contains progressive provisions when it comes to safeguarding freedom of speech and expression. The draft briefly touches the constitutional provision of freedom of speech and expression but remains silent about international commitment. Regarding the international part, the bill states that as other countries are formulating the news, Nepal also needs to formulate the law which is a misrepresentation of Nepal’s international commitments.  The Supreme Court has also delivered landmark verdicts upholding these rights.

However, recent rulings by lower courts appear to contradict the precedents set by the apex court. These decisions only briefly acknowledge the constitutional guarantee of free speech, signaling a shift away from the earlier commitment to protecting this fundamental right.

The Social Media Bill reflects this trend. It fails to clearly state that its purpose is to strengthen freedom of speech and expressions. Instead, it focuses more heavily on regulating social media users, given the impression that its main intent is to restrict, rather than protect, free expression.  

Undeniably, countries across the world are moving quickly to regulate social media to mitigate its negative impacts on society and democracy. But such efforts must never come at the cost of fundamental freedoms, especially freedom of speech, expression and press. Nepal should study how other nations have successfully enacted social media without undermining democratic rights.

Before drafting the bill, the government should have consulted with representatives of major social media companies. Content regulation and moderation are core to the functioning of these platforms, and without their cooperation, any regulatory framework is likely to fail. In this context, Nepal’s top political leadership should use its diplomatic and political channels to engage with these companies. For instance, a few months ago, there was communication between Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and Elon Musk on certain issues. This shows such outreach is possible.

Regrettably, the ministry issued a public notice demanding that social media giants register in Nepal and obtain licenses. It even set a deadline that went ignored. The ministry also threatened to shut down social media platforms, a move widely seen as immature and impractical. A more constructive approach would have been to initiate dialogue, revise the proposed provisions in consultation with these companies and then develop a feasible licensing system.

As it stands, the bill grants sweeping powers to a government-formed department to oversee all social media-related issues. Given the scale and complexity of regulating digital platforms, this is highly problematic. What’s needed is an independent, empowered commission—free from political interference, bureaucratic control, corporate influence and other vested interests. Such a body should be authorized to work directly with social media companies to ensure effective and fair regulation.

The current draft appears to be designed with the aim of removing political content critical of ruling parties. In recent years, there has been a clear trend of political parties using state agencies to target and punish critics of the government and party leadership. If passed without meaningful amendments, the bill risks becoming an extension of the Cyber Bureau, an institution that has already been misused for political purposes.

One positive aspect of the bill is its commitment to launching a large-scale awareness campaign on the responsible use of social media. It proposes to raise public awareness through publications, broadcasts, websites, seminars, public service announcements and dialogues. However, the government does not need to wait for the bill to be passed to begin this vital initiative.

In conclusion, the government must take proactive steps to address the fundamental flaws in the draft bill as it is evident that the agencies involved have failed to adequately study international best practices or documents prepared by global institutions.

The KP Sharma Oli-led government has completed one year in office, delivering a mixed record on its promises. Two major parties came together pledging to ensure political stability, especially after the CPN (Maoist Center), the third-largest party, had repeatedly shifted alliances—often playing the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML against each other.

One notable outcome over the past year is a degree of government stability, if not full political stability. The current NC-UML coalition appears relatively stable and is unlikely to collapse in the near future, though questions about its longevity persist.

Despite the coalition’s stability, the government has failed to curb the frequent transfers of high-level bureaucrats, which has severely disrupted the functioning of government agencies. At the provincial level, however, there is now more stability, ending the earlier pattern of frequent changes in chief ministers and governors.

When the coalition was formed, both parties had agreed to amend the constitution. However, there has been no progress on that front, drawing criticism from opposition parties and the general public. The parties seem uncertain whether to first assess the constitution’s implementation or proceed directly with amendments. “The slow progress clearly shows that NC and UML raised the amendment issue without a well-thought-out plan,” says political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta. “It’s a complex issue that requires delicate handling.”

While the NC and Madhes-based parties have discussed constitutional amendment internally, there has been no broader cross-party effort. Parties remain deeply divided on the matter, with each inclined to revive their core agendas from the constitution-drafting process.

The 2015 constitution was a compromise among parties with competing priorities. Reviving the amendment issue risks hardening those old positions, making any changes unlikely. Prime Minister Oli himself has repeatedly said that constitutional amendments are unlikely before 2027. Within the NC, the faction led by senior leader Shekhar Koirala has criticized the government for its inaction on this front.

On the economic front, there have been signs of modest recovery. To recommend reform measures, the government formed a high-level panel led by Rameshwor Khanal, which has already submitted its report. It remains to be seen how the government will act on its recommendations.

Though the economy underperformed over the past year, some recovery has been observed. According to the Asian Development Bank, Nepal’s economy is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in the current fiscal year, up from an estimated 3.9 percent in FY 2023/24. Consumer inflation has also declined to 2.72 percent, down from four percent last year.

However, with just days left in the 2024/25 fiscal year, more than half of the development budget remains unspent. According to the Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), only 46.59 percent of the capital budget had been utilized as of July. Of the Rs 352.35bn allocated, just Rs 164.15bn has been spent.

On the external front, Prime Minister Oli paid an official visit to China, where he signed a long-pending framework agreement. While this caused some unease within the Nepali Congress, it has not led to significant rifts between the coalition partners. Projects selected under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework have yet to show any real progress. The Prime Minister has also made other bilateral visits, and preparations are underway for his upcoming visit to India, which is expected to take place soon.

The Supreme Court (SC) took over four years to deliver its verdict on the controversial appointments of constitutional office bearers in 2020 and 2021. Lawyers had challenged the appointments, arguing that bypassing parliamentary hearings and using ordinances violated the constitution. However, the SC ultimately upheld the appointments, with a 3-2 majority in the five-member constitutional bench. Chief Justice Prakash Man Singh Raut and Justice Nakul Subedi dissented.

A total of 52 appointments—20 through ordinance and 32 without parliamentary hearings—were made in two batches. While ordinances may be justified in the absence of Parliament, appointments made while the legislature was functional had raised serious concerns.

The verdict has drawn public criticism, further eroding trust in the judiciary. Justice Sapana Pradhan Malla called for self-reflection over the prolonged delay, but the full bench remained unmoved.

Politically, the ruling is a victory for former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who faced backlash for these appointments during a time of parliamentary dissolution and street protests. However, the verdict’s practical impact is minimal. Even if the SC had nullified the appointments, most office bearers have nearly completed their tenures. This suggests the judiciary may have sought to avoid a direct clash with the executive.

The ongoing Central Working Committee (CWC) meeting of the Nepali Congress (NC) is unlikely to bring major political shifts. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba remains committed to the alliance with CPN-UML and shows little urgency in convening the long-demanded general convention.

Prime Minister Oli continues to reassure NC that he will transfer power to Deuba as agreed. Yet, doubts persist in diplomatic and political circles—will Oli honor his word, or will he extend his rule by aligning with the Maoists?

Despite internal calls for the CWC to meet more frequently, Deuba has delayed proceedings. While leaders criticize the government’s performance, few advocate exiting the coalition. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala, however, has demanded an explanation for the UML alliance.

NC leaders are also concerned about the 2027 election, mainly about the electoral alliance. While grassroots members are against forging any electoral alliance with the Maoists, top leaders view it as a strategic necessity to counter UML. The big question remains: Will NC or UML partner with the Maoists, or will the elections proceed without alliances?

Also, with Deuba’s retirement approaching, succession battles are intensifying inside the NC. The party’s internal dynamics, and Deuba’s eventual successor are under close scrutiny. 

Former President Bidya Devi Bhandari has rejoined CPN-UML, vowing to uphold the ideology of her late husband, Madan Bhandari, who advocated for Nepal’s communists to adapt to multiparty democracy.  Senior leaders are divided on this issue. Some argue that Bhandari’s re-entry is justified, while others say that it is inappropriate for a former head of state to rejoin party politics. Another question is: Will she become a prime minister in the future? If UML emerges as the largest party and she secures the leadership, the possibility cannot be ruled out. To avoid the criticisms, Bhandari has asked the Ministry of Home Affairs not to provide her any facilities except the security personnel.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), once a rising force, now faces turbulence. Chairperson Rabi Lamichhane remains embroiled in a cooperative fraud case, leaving the party scrambling for a leader. While second-rung leaders vie for prominence, they have managed to keep disputes under wraps. The party continues to disrupt Parliament, demanding Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak’s resignation over his alleged involvement in the visit visa scam, but its momentum is waning.

A clash between lawmakers and bureaucrats has erupted over the Civil Service Act’s cooling-off period provision. Lawmakers rejected the clause, citing concerns over politically motivated appointments undermining governance. However, bureaucrats reinserted it into the draft, an audacious move that has drawn Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire’s scrutiny. An investigative panel may be formed, with the National Assembly yet to weigh in.

CPN (Unified Socialist) faces turmoil after corruption charges were filed against Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal. Party leaders, including Ram Kumar Bhakti, openly demand his resignation, arguing his continued leadership tarnishes the party’s image. Yet, Nepal clings to power—an unusual move amid legal troubles.

Inside Parliament, critical bills, including education and police reforms, are being prioritized. The government faces pressure to pass the education bill swiftly, following protests by teachers earlier this year.

During the ongoing Central Working Committee meeting of the Nepali Congress (NC), leaders expressed dissatisfaction with the functioning of both the party and the government.

They criticized the government and NC ministers for failing to fulfill their duties, weakening the party’s presence in the coalition. Leaders also pointed out that key commitments from the seven-point agreement between the NC and UML—signed during the government’s formation—remain unfulfilled. One major example is the lack of progress on the constitution amendment, a key pledge made by both parties.

Senior leader Shekhar Koirala demanded an explanation from party President Sher Bahadur Deuba: “Why has there been no progress on the constitution amendment?” So far, the ruling parties have taken no steps toward this goal. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has even stated that an amendment may not be possible before the 2027 elections, as the NC and UML lack the necessary numbers. Other leaders echoed these concerns, arguing that the failure to deliver on promises has damaged the credibility of both the government and the party.

Regarding governance, leaders said the government has failed to meet public expectations or align with the party’s aspirations. However, there was no clear consensus on whether the NC should seek an alternative to the current coalition. NC leader Prakash Sharan Mahat noted that while no one explicitly called for a change in the alliance, leaders urged improvements in the government’s performance.

Another key discussion centered on the party’s stance regarding electoral alliances and coalition governments. Senior leader Koirala questioned Deuba’s decision to form an electoral alliance with the Maoist Center but then align with UML to create the government. “I supported an NC-UML coalition for stability, but NC should have led the government,” he said.

There is growing pressure within the NC to rule out future electoral alliances with the Maoist Center. However, some top leaders argue that without such an alliance, the party cannot defeat the UML. It remains uncertain whether the NC will partner with the Maoists if the current government lasts until the next elections. Leaders also raised doubts about the party’s commitment to holding its general convention on time. Some suspect President Deuba may delay it until after the 2027 elections, a move that would allow him to lead the election government if the current coalition holds. Leaders demanded an immediate convention schedule.

Under the party’s statute, Deuba is ineligible to run for president a third time. It remains unclear whom he will endorse as his successor from his faction, though Koirala and Gagan Thapa have already announced their candidacies. The meeting also addressed dysfunction in the party’s sister organizations, many of which have failed to hold timely conventions. Discussions also touched on intra-party democracy and other organizational challenges.

Koirala further criticized the party’s decision to appoint a leader as a central committee member despite their active membership being less than 10 years old. He also condemned the party for sidelining loyal leaders in past elections while now taking action against them. He proposed granting amnesty to rebel candidates with a warning against repeating such actions. Additionally, he urged the party president to resolve delays in sister organizations’ conventions, where leadership tenures are being repeatedly extended without elections.

Over the past three years, the world has witnessed four major wars, each affecting Nepal to varying degrees. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Israel-Palestine war also erupted that year following a terrorist attack. India and Pakistan engaged in a short but deadly war after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, and most recently, the Iran-US-Israel conflict unfolded. Iran and Israel have now reached a ceasefire agreement after a 12-day-long war. During this time, the United States carried out brief and targeted strikes on three Iranian sites.

As in previous conflicts, the Nepal government had to focus on the rescue of its citizens from Israel and Iran. Evacuation efforts are already underway. Two Nepali nationals have returned home, and the remaining 14 are expected soon. Responding to Nepal’s request, the Indian government also evacuated Nepali nationals along with its own. The absence of a Nepali embassy in Tehran and a lack of formal communication channels made the evacuation process particularly difficult.

During the Iran-Israel war, the Nepal government did not issue any official statement. Nepal has shared a long and cordial relationship with Israel since establishing diplomatic ties in 1960. It was, in fact, the first South Asian country to recognize Israel. Since the beginning of the Iran-Israel war and the subsequent US strikes, Nepal has faced no significant pressure from political parties or the strategic community to issue a statement. However, some left-leaning parties, including the main opposition CPN (Maoist), condemned the US strikes on Iran. A few civil society organizations held demonstrations in Kathmandu, calling for an end to the conflict. Although Nepali political leaders and officials have met Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of multilateral forums, no formal bilateral engagements have taken place.

Regarding the Israel-Palestine war, Nepal promptly condemned the Hamas attack on the very day it occurred. The attack claimed the lives of 10 Nepali students, and the whereabouts of Bipin Joshi remain unknown. “The Government of Nepal vehemently denounces the recent act of terrorism in Israel, which tragically resulted in the loss of precious human lives and left many others injured,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated. Notably, later statements from the ministry omitted the word “terrorist,” a shift that caught the attention of foreign policy analysts. Meanwhile, Israel has expressed some reservations about Nepal’s voting positions on issues concerning the Israel-Palestine conflict. In recent votes, Nepal has supported calls for an immediate ceasefire.

Following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 this year, which killed 25 tourists—including one Nepali—India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, engaged in a four-day conflict from May 7 to 10. In response, Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued two statements: the first on April 23 and the second on May 8. The April 23 statement unequivocally condemned the “barbaric terrorist attack on innocent tourists” and expressed Nepal’s solidarity with the Indian government and people.

On May 8, amid the India-Pakistan conflict, Nepal reaffirmed its stance against terrorism. The statement expressed deep concern over rising tensions and reiterated Nepal’s commitment to fighting terrorism in all forms. Indian Ambassador to Nepal Naveen Srivastava reportedly thanked Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli for Nepal’s support. Before and after the conflict, several Indian politicians visited Kathmandu for wide-ranging discussions. A few regional programs on terrorism in South Asia were also held in the capital. Interestingly, Nepali political leaders and the strategic community remained relatively silent on the India-Pakistan tensions.

The Russia-Ukraine war had a more visible impact on Nepal, largely due to US involvement. Following Russia’s invasion in Feb 2022, Nepal joined the international chorus condemning Russia’s actions. Nepal even voted in an emergency session of the UN General Assembly against Russia’s invasion, calling for an immediate withdrawal and adherence to international law.

This move sparked considerable debate within Nepal. Many argued that Nepal’s vote aligned too closely with Western powers and went against its traditional non-aligned foreign policy. In subsequent UN votes on the war, Nepal adopted a more neutral stance. The conflict’s economic repercussions were felt in Nepal, though not as acutely as in many other parts of the world.

Interestingly, soon after the war began, Moscow proposed advancing bilateral cooperation with Kathmandu. At the same time, the US pressured Nepal to avoid engagement with Russia on business and other matters. Most communist parties in Nepal expressed support for Russia, arguing that Ukraine had failed to acknowledge Russia’s security concerns. However, when it came to light that Russia was recruiting Nepali youth into its army, public and political criticism intensified. Since Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, Russian activity in Kathmandu has increased, with more visits from Russian political, business and other delegations.

A close analysis of these four wars suggests that Nepal has not been significantly affected, at least directly. The country continues to adhere to its long-standing policy of non-alignment. Still, there is growing domestic debate about whether this policy remains viable in a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape. For now, despite changes in leadership, Nepal has not deviated from its foundational foreign policy approach when dealing with global conflicts.

The ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump between Israel and Iran has offered some respite to the Nepal government, which had been scrambling to rescue its citizens from the two countries. As tensions escalated, nearly 1,000 Nepalis in Israel had expressed desire to return home. 

Had there been no ceasefire, the fallout would likely have extended beyond Israel and Iran, affecting Nepali workers across the entire Middle East (West Asia for Nepal).

Iran’s strike on the American military base in Qatar had already sparked panic among the Nepali workers. Qatar hosts around 365,000 Nepali migrant workers.  Whenever a conflict erupts in the Middle East, Nepal bears the brunt. Hundreds of thousands Nepalis are working in the region, and the remittances they send home are a backbone of Nepli economy. If these workers were to return from the labor destination countries in droves, remittances would dry up. Soon, there would be an unemployment crisis. Prolonged conflict in the Middle East could also cause shortages or price hikes of petroleum products.

At the time of writing, Iran and Israel—despite agreeing to the truce—continue to exchange fire. At this uncertain time, the safety and security of Nepali workers in the Middle East must be the government’s prime concern. It should face the reality of the situation and come up with a proper strategy to evacuate its citizens in the event of an emergency. It should start by strengthening the presence of Nepali embassies. For long, Nepali embassies not just in the Middle East but around the world have been grappling with insufficient resources. Many embassies are short-staffed and are thus unable to coordinate an emergency mission. Worse, they do not have information about the number of its citizens.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the top nine destinations for Nepali migrant workers are Malaysia (700,000), Saudi Arabia (400,000), Qatar (365,000), the UAE (250,000), Kuwait (70,000), South Korea (40,000), Bahrain (25,000), Oman (20,000) and Israel (3,000).

Foreign relations experts suggest it is high time Nepal increased its reach and presence in those countries with a high number of Nepali migrant workers. A long-term peace in the Middle East is still a shaky prospect, so the government should explore alternative job destinations as well as prioritize domestic job creation.   

US President Donald Trump has accused the two countries of violating a ceasefire hours after he announced it, expressing particular frustration with Israel, which had announced plans for major new strikes on Tehran.

“Israel, as soon as we made the deal they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before,” he said as he departed Washington for a NATO summit in the Netherlands. “The biggest load that we’ve seen.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said that two of the 16 Nepalis in Iran were evacuated from Mashhad to New Delhi. We express our sincere gratitude to the Government of India for facilitating the evacuation process, said the ministry.  Efforts are underway to evacuate the remaining 14 Nepalis, according to the ministry.  Over 950 Nepali nationals in Israel have registered expressing their interests to return to Nepal but the ministry is yet to initiate the process of evacuation from there.