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Earlier this week, on May 5, the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, led by Upendra Yadav, underwent a sudden split. Out of its 12 lawmakers in the House of Representatives, seven members led by Ashok Rai filed an application with the Election Commission seeking the registration of a new party. The following day, despite legal ambiguity, the election body, perceived to be influenced by parties in power, registered the new party, Janata Samajbadi Party and issued a certificate of political party to the Rai-led panel.

Yadav, also the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Health, was in the US when the split occurred. Upon hearing the news, he cut short his trip and returned to Nepal, but there was little he could do to persuade the dissident leaders to undo their action. What might have caused the split within Samajbadi party? There's a prevalent belief among top politicians that Yadav and Madhav Kumar Nepal, chair of CPN (Unified Socialist), were plotting to withdraw support from the current coalition government simultaneously, potentially to topple it.

Media reports suggest that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli got wind of this plan and orchestrated the split to salvage the coalition. Rai and his supporters publicly endorsed this narrative, claiming they felt compelled to part ways with the mother party due to Yadav's alleged intention to withdraw support from the current coalition. Days after the party split, Prime Minister Dahal on Thursday stated his determination to maintain the coalition by any means necessary. 

Following Samajbadi’s split, there were rumors that senior Unified Socialist leader Jhala Nath Khanal may also split the party if its chairman, Nepal, decides to withdraw from the Dahal-led government. However, Khanal has refuted the rumors. Upon his return from the US, Yadav met with Prime Minister Dahal to assert his commitment to the coalition and clarify any misinformation. Despite the split, Yadav expressed his intention to remain in the government, though much depends on the prime minister, who appears to favor the Rai-led faction for their role in preserving the coalition. Even if Yadav walks out of the government, Dahal will technically have majority support in the Parliament to continue his government.

The Unified Socialist has also publicly declared its intent to stay in the government, despite its Chairman Nepal voicing doubts about this coalition’s longevity. While reports suggest that the main opposition, Nepali Congress, was in discussions with Nepal of Unified Socialist and Yadav of Samajbadi Party about forming a new coalition, there were reportedly no significant talks between NC and Yadav.

A senior NC leader indicated readiness to accept Nepal as prime minister if the coalition collapses, but denied willingness to support Yadav for the position. Meanwhile, Yadav's camp has expressed willingness to form a new coalition only if offered the prime ministerial position. The NC itself is a divided house when it comes to forming a coalition with the Samajbadi and Unified Socialist. While leaders close to Deuba want to form a new coalition sans UML, its senior leader Shekhar Koirala is in talks with the UML to forge a coalition between the two largest parties. 

However, according to some UML leaders, the party chair, Oli, is in no rush to break the current coalition. They say he is aiming for a long game with the sole purpose of making the UML the largest party through the general elections of 2027. It appears Oli is in no hurry to become prime minister.   With the Samajbadi party split in two, it is now up to Prime Minister Dahal to decide whether to keep both Yadav and Rai factions in the coalition. He is already under pressure from the Rai camp to throw out the Yadav faction. Rai has clearly stated that the prime minister should choose between him and Yadav.

The events that unfolded over the past few days reveal that the split within JSP was not solely driven by coalition issues; intra-party conflicts also played a significant role. Before leaving for the US, Yadav issued an intra-party circular outlining the formation of an election committee for the upcoming general convention. Rai claimed Yadav favored his supporters as convention representatives, sidelining other senior party members. Yadav was also accused of attempting to transform the party into a regional entity centered on Madhes, despite its national scope. Rai acknowledged that aside from coalition concerns, intra-party disputes fueled their rebellion against Yadav.  Despite multiple splits over the years, Yadav continues to retain leadership of the party due to his strong base in Madhes. He hopes to do the same this time as well. 

Last week, the Supreme Court (SC) ordered the Nepal government to limit the number of climbing permits for Mt. Everest and other peaks. The court order comes amid the concerns that increasing human activities in the mountains is causing pollution and other harms, coupled with adverse impact of climate change. However, stakeholders say the directives made by SC are not feasible to implement, though it may have been issued with a good intention but it affects the tourism industry.

Nima Nuru Sherpa, president of Nepal Mountaineering Association, says though he honors SC order it was issued without proper study of the issue. “More than one thousand trekking industries are operating in Nepal for the same purpose and the flow and number of mountaineers are fixed only two-three months before the climbing season, so it is not possible to pick certain numbers for the climbing,” he says. 

In 2020, Nepal Army had also suggested to the Nepal government to limit the number of climbers before the beginning of the climbing season, which was met with criticism from tourism and mountaineering agencies. Multiple people who spoke with ApEx contend that the SC issued the order without the basic knowledge about the mountaineering industry.  If limitation is imposed, Sherpa says it would severely impact Nepal’s tourism industry.  Lawyer Deepak Bikram Mishra, who had filed a petition urging permits to be curtained, recently told AFP that the court had responded to public concerns about Nepal’s mountains and its environment.

The number of people climbing Everest and other peaks is increasing every year.  In 2019, there was a massive traffic jam on Everest, resulting in at least nine deaths. Since then, there has been discussion about limiting the number of climbers to the world’s highest peak. The government also formed a high-level panel to suggest ways to regulate mountain expeditions. But notably, the panel did not suggest limiting the numbers of climbers. Instead, it recommended measures such as employing experts for rope-fixing tasks, building an effective climate prediction system, fixing dates for climbing, and not allowing more than 150 climbers in a day. The panel also suggested effective coordination among key government agencies. In 2023, altogether 478 permits were issued to climb Everest; 287 people made successful ascent. For this spring, the Department of Tourism has issued over 400 permits. It also issued climbing permits for more than 30 other mountains. 

Along with limiting the permits, the joint bench of justices Sapana Pradhan Malla and Sushma Lalita Mathema has ruled the government to ban the use of helicopters in the areas, except for emergency rescue. The court has directed expedition teams to maintain the transparency of the items they plan to take with them and they should be recorded at the departure point. The court has also expressed concerns about the growing impact of climate change in Nepal’s mountainous areas.

Stating that climate-induced disasters are affecting the tourists, local residents and minority groups, the court has also directed the government to undertake special care and protective measures in response to the impacts of climate change on mountains and glaciers.  There are growing concerns about the growing pollution in the mountainous region, and mainly in the Everest base camp. The government and various non-governmental organizations are engaged in waste management at the base camp, but the efforts so far have not been effective. 

On this issue, the SC has said that there is a need for proper waste management in mountainous regions to prevent adverse effects on the environment and human health. The court has directed the government to enhance coordination between government and non-governmental agencies engaged in sanitation and to ensure the effective implementation of existing laws. It has instructed the government and stakeholders concerned to coordinate garbage and corpse management and to establish a monitoring team of experts.

In February this year, Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality enacted Base Camp Management Procedures 2024 to manage the human activities in the foothills of various mountains in the region, including Mt. Everest. As per the new regulations, climbers are required to carry a poop bag or biodegradable bag to manage and bring back their waste from higher altitudes of the mountains.

Migma Tshering Sherpa, chairperson of the rural municipality, says they have implemented some measures that aim to control the pollution, waste and other aspects in the mountain.  “We are coordinating with the provincial and central government in order to implement the provisions mentioned in the procedures and we hope that situation will improve.”  Sherpa, however, doubts whether the order issued by the Supreme Court can be implemented.  According to a study conducted by the government, there are over 1310 mountains eligible for climbing, out of them only 414 have been opened for commercial mountaineering expeditions.

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Year wise permits 

During Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko’s one-day Nepal visit on Sunday, the two sides discussed pressing global and regional issues.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japanese foreign minister and Nepal’s foreign minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha held a candid exchange of views on regional affairs, including the situation in East Asia and South Asia, and concurred on maintaining close communication between the two countries.

The two ministers also held a candid exchange of views on global issues, including strengthening of the functions of the UN, including the Security Council reform, the rule of law, and nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, the Japanese ministry stated in a press release.  Minister Yoko stated that the concept of Women, Peace and Security (WPS) is becoming ever more important amidst increasing uncertainty in the international community, and that Japan would like to further strengthen cooperation in the area of WPS in the future. In response, Minister Shrestha said Nepal would like to maintain cooperation on global issues, including WPS. 

Minister Yoko also conveyed the message to Nepali leaders that Japan would like to work together for the development of Nepal and for peace, stability and prosperity in the region through practical cooperation.

Enhancing people-to-people relationships was another issue that two sides discussed during the visit. Currently, over 170,000 Nepalis, including many exchange students, are living in Japan. The issue of sending more Nepali workers to Japan also figured in the meeting.

In the meeting with PM, Minister Kamikawa also stated that Nepal's sustainable development contributes to the stability of the region and that Japan would continue to cooperate in Nepal’s efforts for sustainable development through development cooperation such as the Nagdhunga Tunnel Construction Project. 

The two ministers concurred on cooperating to further promote mutual understanding and friendly bilateral relations through the establishment of a preparatory committee in both countries to consider initiatives befitting the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2026, as well as the “Human Resources Development Scholarship Program” (JDS), a grant aid program for training young administrative officials. The two ministers also concurred on promoting people-to-people exchanges through Specified Skilled Workers and tourism.

National politics is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with doubts arising about the stability of the five-party coalition government. A significant blow came with the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal experiencing a split, as seven lawmakers and 30 central committee members formed a new party under Ashok Rai.

The Election Commission on Monday issued a certificate of political party to the Rai faction of JSP as per the Political Party Act. However, there are no clear legal provisions regarding the party formation process in case an existing party splits. 

In 2021, the government led by the Nepali Congress had issued an ordinance to amend the Act to ease the split of political parties. Based on that ordinance Madhav Kumar Nepal and Mahantha Thakur formed new parties, the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, after splitting from the UML and JSP, respectively. The ordinance has since been repealed. 

The establishment faction of the JSP led by Upendra Yadav has argued that since the ordinance is no longer in effect, the new party under Rai cannot be legitimate.

Meanwhile, those lawmakers who have broken away from JSP claim that their actions were prompted by the intention to preserve the current coalition, as party Chairman Yadav, also the deputy prime minister and health minister, was considering withdrawing support from the government to form a new one. 

The latest development signifies the beginning of further rifts within both large and small parties, either to maintain or challenge the current government. The situation echoes the turbulence of the early 1990s, characterized by party splits, political maneuvering, and the manipulation of lawmakers. 

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML are focused on retaining power or engineering government changes. 

JSP leaders say Prime Minister Dahal and CPN-UML KP Sharma Oli played significant roles in orchestrating the split to prevent the current coalition from slipping into a minority position in Parliament. Even if Yadav were to withdraw support, the current coalition is likely to retain a comfortable majority, with the assurance of the Rai-led JSP to support the Dahal-led government.

Another coalition partner, CPN (Unified Socialist), has also expressed discontent with the current arrangement, with its Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal publicly stating concerns about the government's stability. His recent remarks about certain leaders' reluctance to see him as prime minister hint at underlying tensions within this coalition. Nepal's dissatisfaction with provincial-level governance and appointments also suggests a deeper rift within the coalition.  

With a split in JSP, the Unified Socialist faces the challenge of keeping the party intact. There are suspicions that to prevent the current coalition from slipping into minority, Dahal and Oli could try to divide the Unified Socialist as well. 

The initial formation of the current coalition on March 4 saw Prime Minister Dahal sever ties with the NC in favor of incorporating UML and RSP. Within months of its formation, another specter of coalition split looms large.  The future remains uncertain, with no clear indication of how many more changes in government will precede the 2027 national elections. 

Nepal and Yadav are said to be in talks with the main opposition, Nepali Congress, to form a new government. There are reports that NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, Yadav, and Nepal have reached an agreement to lead a new government on a rotational basis until the next elections. 

The Nepali Congress, particularly Deuba and his supporters, are actively seeking to dismantle the Dahal-led government, proposing Unified Socialist Chairman Nepal as a potential prime ministerial candidate. However, opinions within the Nepali Congress vary regarding the formation of a new coalition, with some advocating for an alliance with JSP, RSP, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and other fringe parties.

Deuba and his supporters were working to secure 138 seats (NC-88, RPP-14, JSP-12, CPN Unified Socialist-10, Janatmat-6, Nagarik Unmukti-4 and Loktantrik Samajbadi-4) required to form a new coalition. But with the JSP split, the NC is not in the position to secure the majority votes. 

Efforts to stabilize the government are also ongoing, with discussions between NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala and UML Chairman Oli about a potential collaboration between the two largest parties. However, opinions within UML are divided on this matter, with many opposing cooperation with the NC, their main competitor.

While Dahal and Oli may succeed in preserving the coalition, there is still risk of it falling into minority. Home Minister and RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichaane is under pressure to resign and facilitate the investigation against him for his alleged involvement in embezzlement of cooperatives money. If the government agrees to form a parliamentary probe panel as demanded by the NC, Lamichhane will have to resign. In that context, it is not certain whether the RSP will remain in the government. Calls within RSP to exit the government are growing, particularly following disappointing results in the Ilam-2 by-elections. 

The upcoming budget session of the House of Representatives, scheduled for May 10, adds further uncertainty. The NC has threatened to obstruct parliamentary proceedings unless a panel is formed to investigate cooperative scandals, potentially complicating the government's ability to present the budget. 

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa concluded her one-day official visit to Nepal against the backdrop of global challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and the escalating rivalry between the US and China in Southeast and South Asia. 

Over the past decade, US-Japan collaboration has significantly intensified, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where both countries share similar outlooks. This has led to increased security cooperation between them and expanded strategic partnerships with India and Australia. Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy emphasizes the establishment of a rule-based order in the region for the benefit of the international community. 

Before her visit to Nepal, Minister Kamikawa also engaged in discussions with Sri Lanka on regional affairs. Sri Lanka, which is trying to recover from a deep economic crisis, is in the global spotlight due to its debt problem with China. Japan shares the same position with the US and other democratic world when it comes to containing China’s influence in this region though it is not vocal about it.

However, when it comes to offering development assistance to Nepal, it seems Japan does not have any strategic interests. The case in point is Nagdhunga-Sisnekhola tunnel project on which there is no Japan’s strategic interests and there are other big infrastructures projects like this. Along with robust development cooperation, Japan’s priority in Nepal is transparency in development projects, upholding democracy and human rights. Japan’s Indo-Pacific outlook states that expanding a free and fair economic order in the Indo-Pacific region is one of the key priorities. 

Dr Satoru Nagao, fellow (nonresident) at Hudson Institute, says Japan wants to develop the Indo-Pacific as a stable and peaceful region, including Japan as a regional member.

In an article published on The Rising Nepal, Minister Kamikawa highlighted Japan’s support for Nepal’s democratization efforts and emphasized the shared values of democracy between the two countries. Japan is also launching initiatives like the Women, Peace, and Security Program in South Asia, recognizing the crucial role of women in fostering sustainable peace. 

Overall, the bilateral relationship between Japan and Nepal encompasses a range of collaborations, with both countries expressing commitment to further strengthen ties in various sectors, including development and labor mobility.  On the bilateral front, there is a long-list of collaboration between the two countries as Japan is one the major development partners of Nepal. The Japanese foreign minister has expressed commitment to support Nepal after the graduation from the LDC category.  

Japan is also seeking foreign workers and efforts are underway to hire more Nepali workers. In 2019, the two countries signed a memorandum of cooperation on sending Nepali workers to Japan under the government-to-government modality. Under the deal, specified skilled workers from Nepal will be hired in various job sectors of Japan, ranging from nursing care to manufacturing to hospitality. The minister’s visit is likely to make progress in this area.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha held talks with his Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa on Sunday afternoon. The two leaders reviewed the progress made in bilateral relations and cooperation so far, and discussed various areas of bilateral relations to elevate economic and development cooperation.

The two leaders held discussion on enhancing support and cooperation in Nepal’s major developmental priorities that include agriculture, hydro-power, infrastructure development, connectivity, export promotion, industrial production, foreign investment and tourism sectors.

As the year 2026 will mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Nepal-Japan diplomatic relations, the two leaders also underscored the need to commemorate the milestone with high-level exchanges and various events.

Nepal is already caught in the geopolitics of great power competition, and we cannot escape from it. The only option left for us is building our capacity to deal with the fast-changing geopolitical situation. There is a national consensus that Nepal should use the current situation as an opportunity to advance its economic interests. Foreign and geopolitical experts, including this scribe, often wonder whether we have built our capacity to deal with the complex, uncertain, and chaotic world. In one way or another, Nepal is already bearing the brunt of increasing geopolitical tensions. The pressing issues that the global community is confronting are growing tensions between the US and China, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Taiwan tension, the Middle East crisis and the impacts of climate change. The impact of those issues in Nepal is evident in the conduct of foreign policy, the economy, and to some extent, the domestic political landscape. Over the past few years, we have already become hostages of indecision, ill-decisions, delayed decisions, or fractured decisions on important bilateral, regional or global issues.

To deal with the complex geopolitical situation and other global issues, Nepal needs to pay serious attention to strengthen the existing mechanisms and create new structures, if required. First, it needs to make the existing mechanisms effective. Second, it needs to work out whether it needs new mechanisms. Third, there should be effective and timely coordination among the key state institutions. 

Let's begin with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA). The ministry has 10 divisions covering all countries, regional and global organizations. However, these divisions fall short of human resources and expertise to deal with global issues, given the workload of all divisions. The creation of divisions is based on geography, not issues. Like in many other countries, there are no think tanks within the ministry to support its functioning. Nor is MoFA tolerant or positive about the government think-tank, the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA). MoFA officials have yet to realize the importance and role of think-tanks. They think, since they are involved in all bilateral, regional and multilateral negotiations, they have first-hand information on all issues and do not require inputs from any think-tanks. That is why, for a long time, the IFA has been left totally paralyzed.

And it is because of this hubris, the units within MoFA have failed to produce in-depth reports on important bilateral and regional issues. Take the examples of America's Indo-Pacific Strategy and China's Belt and Road Initiative. There has been no serious research and studies on either of these. As MoFA has not developed its capacity, other ministries and departments cannot take its support. Based on conversations with government officials, this scribe can conclude that there is a vague understanding of these issues among them, and they are facing difficulties in taking decisions. There is another side to the story too; there is a lack of independent experts and scholars who can conduct in-depth study and research on what Nepal's position should be in the changing geopolitical situation. There are some non-government think-tanks doing research, but government agencies and officials do not take them seriously due to their poor quality.

The underlying problem is that there is a serious flaw in the appointment of the foreign minister. Those who have at least some idea about foreign policy or geopolitics should be appointed foreign minister. On the one hand, the tenure of foreign ministers is usually short, while on the other, it takes several months for them to grasp the basic knowledge of how MoFA functions and what the key issues are. Foreign embassies or permanent representatives are one of the important wings of the ministry. However, they are almost dysfunctional. Barring some exceptions, Nepal is sending inexperienced, low-profile politicians as its ambassadors to key global capitals such as New Delhi, Washington and Beijing. 

There are some basic problems with ambassadors appointed on political quotas. First, they lack knowledge of the basics of how diplomacy works. Second, they usually do not cooperate with their respective division at the ministry; they do not even feel comfortable reporting to the foreign secretary. They work directly with the foreign minister or the prime minister. Whereas, career ambassadors have the tradition of not taking decisions out of fear of being dragged into controversy. That is why they confine themselves to day-to-day administrative tasks. There is, therefore, a need for a complete overhaul in the functioning of the ministry and its units.

Another equally important issue is the lack of cooperation between state mechanisms, mainly the Office of the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers (OPMCM). Currently, there is a lack of coordination between OPMCM and the Foreign Minister. In some cases, the OPMCM takes decisions without consulting or informing MoFA. One example of this is the appointment of ambassadors. There is also a lack of coordination between the foreign ministry and other ministries. In principle, all decisions and communication related to foreign policy should be conducted through MoFA, but this is not happening. At the same time, there is a lack of consultation between MoFA and security agencies. Not only is there a lack of coordination among ministries, but there is also a lack of coordination between MoFA, and provincial and local governments.

Experts have been raising this issue for a long time. But political leaders do not take these issues seriously because they are wielding foreign policy to advance their party and personal interests. If all the activities and processes are made transparent, they fear losing the privilege of making secret deals or appeasing others to remain in power. This is why they usually do not want to include MoFA officials in talks with other countries, except in formal delegation-level meetings. At the same time, Nepal seriously lacks capable human resources to deal with the complex geopolitics. This should be our priority issue although it may not be a priority issue for our politicians. Our politicians should realize that they alone cannot handle foreign policy in this complex geopolitical situation. Politicians may have certain issues with the foreign ministry, but there cannot be its replacement. They, however, have all rights to restructure it.

The CPN-UML has decisively won the recent by-elections in Ilam-2 for the House of Representatives and Bajhang (A) for Sudurpashchim Provincial Assembly, signaling a significant shift in political dynamics.

In Ilam-2, Suhang Nembang secured an impressive victory with 27,772 votes, surpassing his closest rival Dambar Bahadur Khadka from the Nepali Congress who garnered 21,942 votes. Similarly, in Bajhang (A), Daman Bahadur Bhandari clinched a narrow win over NC’s Abhishek Bahadur Singh with a margin of just 267 votes.

Prior to the elections, uncertainties loomed due to internal divisions within both the NC and UML, as well as the emergence of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which had shown considerable strength in previous by-elections in Tanahun and Chitwan. However, the latest by-election results underscore the UML’s successful efforts to fortify its organizational structure, reflecting positively on its strategies.

Since the 2022 general elections, the UML has been actively engaging with the public through initiatives like Mission Grassroots and Sankalpa Yatra, demonstrating a commitment to connect with constituents at all levels. Senior UML figures attribute their recent victories to adept management of internal discord in Ilam and Bajhang.

“We are encouraged by the by-elections results. The results show that the party has succeeded in managing the intra-party rift both in Ilam and Bhajang,” a senior UML leader said.  

The UML’s unveiling of the Mission ‘84 campaign, aimed at the 2027 general elections, indicates a strategic push to ascend as the leading political force. The outcomes of the Ilam-2 and Bajhang (A) by-elections hint at a potential shift in power dynamics, with the UML poised to challenge the NC’s dominance.

Conversely, the NC faces a significant setback in the aftermath of the recent by-elections, echoing previous defeats to the RSP in Tanahu and Chitwan. Meanwhile, the erosion of voter support, exemplified by a substantial decline in votes for both the NC and UML in Ilam, underscores the urgent need for both parties to reassess their strategies.

The overall votes of both UML and NC have gone down in Ilam. In the 2022 general elections, the UML candidate Subas Chandra Nembang had secured 30,020 votes, while the NC’s Dambar Bahadur Khadka had garnered 29,006 votes. In the latest by-election, the UML candidate secured around 2,000 fewer votes than last time and the NC lost around 7,000 votes. 

Losing around 7,000 voters should be a matter of grave concern for the NC, but the party leadership seems unfazed.

The rise of identity politics, particularly evident in Ilam’s electoral landscape, presents a formidable challenge to traditional parties like the NC and UML. Independent candidate Dakendra Singh Limbu’s robust performance underscores the resonance of identity-based narratives, posing a challenge for established parties.

Whether they believe it or not, despite UML’s victory in the recent by-elections, major political parties face serious challenges in the coming days. A key challenge for the established old parties is to retain their cadres and supporters.

And while the RSP candidate did not put on a strong electoral show, the party’s rising popularity, especially among young voters, cannot be discounted when Nepal goes to general elections in 2027.  

Looking ahead, both the NC and UML confront an uphill challenge of retaining their support base amidst the emergence of new political forces like the RSP. The need for organizational rejuvenation, coupled with a shift toward younger, more dynamic leadership, emerges as a critical imperative for both parties.

It could be argued that Suhang Nembang won the by-election in Ilam-2 due to the sympathy vote following the death of his father and former UML Vice-chairperson Subas Chandra Nembang. But the party, unlike the NC, has at least realized that there are problems within the party organization and that support base is dwindling. The party is willing to put in the hard work necessary to retain its cadres and voters. 

For the NC, the latest by-election results once again send a clear message that the party needs to wake up and  work hard to strengthen its organizational strength, resolve the intra-party rift, and pick young and fresh candidates. It is no more business as usual.

India, the world's largest democracy, is busy holding the 18th Lok Sabha elections which will conclude on June 1. The global community is closely watching the outcomes of these elections. With its burgeoning population having surpassed China's, India is on track to claim the mantle of the world's third-largest economy by 2030. As a key player in the Indo-Pacific region and a torchbearer for the Global South, India's policies, both domestic and foreign, resonate far beyond its borders.

The significance of India's elections reverberates throughout the region. While there are widespread projections that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a third consecutive term, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi continuing in office, opposition parties are expected to strengthen their position compared to the 2019 elections.

The election outcomes in India are of particular significance for South Asian nations including Nepal, where India wields deep political, economic and military influence. In 2014, upon assuming power with a resounding victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reinvigorated the 'Neighborhood First' policy, although he failed to achieve the expected outcomes. 

To demonstrate the BJP government's priority for neighbors, he invited the heads of state and government from South Asian countries to attend his swearing-in ceremony. When re-elected in 2019, Modi continued the 'Neighborhood First' policy by inviting BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Pectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) member countries to his swearing-in ceremony. If re-elected for a third term, the BJP government is likely to maintain the 'Neighborhood First' policy, although India has been focusing more on regions beyond South Asia in recent years. 

Despite occasional highs and lows, the trajectory of Nepal-India relations points toward a positive outlook, poised to weather the complexities of shared history and future aspirations.

Over the past decade, under Modi's leadership, Nepal-India relations have witnessed many highs and lows. However, the relationship is moving in a positive direction, which should continue even after the elections.

Crucial issues such as the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty and boundary disputes remain on the diplomatic agenda, albeit the two countries approach them with varying degrees of emphasis. Nevertheless, the two neighbors recognize the imperative of fostering trust and stability to navigate these challenges successfully. A notable shift in India's approach to the internal affairs of its neighbors signals a promising era of cooperation built on mutual respect and understanding.

The BJP government has changed its approach on how to view the internal political affairs of South Asian countries which has helped to build an environment trust.

One encouraging signal is that economic collaboration has emerged as a cornerstone of bilateral relations, with a growing focus on development partnerships and infrastructure projects. Despite changes in political leadership, the momentum in bilateral engagements remains steady, underpinning a commitment to sustained progress and prosperity.

Over the past three decades, India has faced charges of not completing development projects for extended periods. However, several bilateral projects are now making progress, ultimately helping to build an environment of trust. Recent visits by Nepali leaders to New Delhi and Indian leaders to Kathmandu have focused on enhancing economic and development partnerships. The energy cooperation agreement between Nepal and India has paved the way for regional energy cooperation, with Nepal positioned as a clean energy provider to the region. 

As India's economy continues to rise and rise, and major multinational companies shift their industries to India, Nepal, which shares an open border, should get the opportunities. India could become a destination not only for unskilled Nepali workforce but also for highly skilled professionals in sectors such as education, health, IT, banking, and others, which have not received much discussion. Both Nepal and India should seriously consider these issues and clearly outline their plans to derive economic benefits from India's rising economy. These matters should be taken seriously regardless of which party comes to power.

Amid robust economic collaboration between two countries, over the past few years, Nepal is witnessing a debate about the growing ideological influence of BJP in Nepal. In recent years, there has been a perception among Nepali leaders and the public that the BJP and its affiliates are pushing for a Hindu agenda in Nepal. It is often said that they are suggesting (sometimes pressuring) Nepali leaders to scrap secularism and go for the Hindu state. There are also reports that various organizations linked with the BJP are active in Nepal with their Hindu agenda. 

While Nepal's top leaders are aware of those issues, they have not spoken publicly. However, they want to discuss those issues with Indian leaders. BJP leaders should be mindful that such efforts could again strain the bilateral relationship, which has reached a new level after sustained efforts from both sides. It would be worthwhile to recall India's approach to the demands of Madhes-based parties, mainly after 2017, which helped enhance the bilateral relations.

Many Nepali politicians and analysts view the growing activities of Hindu organizations as an attempt to overturn the 2015 constitution. This suspicion among Nepali politicians obviously does not help enhance the bilateral relationship. There should be frank and open discussions between the two sides, not only on these issues but also on other issues of mutual concern. 

India's relationship with global powers also affects its South Asia policy. The India-US strategic partnership is likely to be enhanced, but there are divergent views on several bilateral and global issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war. The India-China relationship is unlikely to improve for at least the next few years. As I have highlighted in my previous columns, Nepal's approach should be not to engage in the big-power rivalry but to focus on economic development.

The future of Nepal-India relations hinges not on fleeting political interests but on a shared commitment to long-term prosperity and mutual respect. By prioritizing economic and developmental collaboration, both nations can chart a course toward a brighter, more interconnected future.