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Kathmandu: The United States has said that the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) established in 2004 is completely unrelated to President Donald Trump’s vision of an open and free Indo-Pacific.

Speaking in a special ZOOM press briefing, Alice G. Wells, Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs said that there has been a great deal of disinformation about the America assistance to Nepal.

Over the latest debate on the MCC, she said, it’s “…much more about internal politics in Nepal, and I would certainly hope that the leadership of your nation who negotiated this agreement… brought in all major political parties during the negotiations over three years…. that the leaders of your nation are going to stand up for the people of Nepal and move forward with the MCC.”

Asked about the speculation that China does not want Nepal’s endorsement of the MCC, which in turn is the reason for the opposition against it from a section of Nepal’s ruling party leaders, she said, “Government of Nepal is sovereign… it does not take dictation from China. It will do what is in the best interests of its country to advance the economic welfare of its people.”

“This program is specifically designed by [the US] Congress to provide poverty alleviation through creating greater confidence in a country’s ability to implement economic programs that are designed to unlock the blockages to growth,” she added.

“The MCC, in which Nepal government also committed another $130 million in additional funds above the $500 million that we seek to allocate, it’s designed to promote hydroelectricity transmission, including sales across border, and also to reform the road structure so that you open up the economy, potentially, to increased foreign direct investment. 

“The fact that this grant assistance—not a loan, grant assistance—has become a political football is disturbing,” she said. 

Indian Army Chief Manoj Mukund Naravane tried to downplay Nepal’s protest over the Lipulekh road as undertaken “at the behest of someone else.” His statement raised many eyebrows in Nepal. The Indian general was clearly hinting at China. Yet the Nepali government and the people have been as surprised by China’s silence over the issue as they have been with India’s land grab in Kalapani.

Before 2015, Nepal expected China’s active support in the resolution of the Kalapani and Lipulekh disputes. But that year India and China agreed to boost border trade via Lipulekh, without consulting Nepal. Traditionally, Nepal has seen Lipulekh as a tri-junction point between Nepal, India, and China.

The joint statement issued on 15 May 2015 during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China says: “The two sides agreed to hold negotiations on augmenting the list of traded commodities, and expand border trade at Nathu La, Quiangla/Lipulekh pass and Shikki La.” Erstwhile Nepal government led by Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala had immediately sent diplomatic notes to India and China, expressing its displeasure over the agreement.

China promptly responded but India remained silent. According to Foreign Ministry sources, China said that there was room for improvement, and if necessary, it was ready to revise the agreement. Many want the government to send a diplomatic note to China again.

Foreign policy experts in New Delhi reckon this is a matter purely between Nepal and India, and there is no point in dragging in China. A retired Indian diplomat, requesting anonymity, says: “The current dispute is not about fixing the tri-junction, it is about the source of Kali River. So Nepal and India should immediately sit for dialogue to seek a solution.”

Lin Minwang, Professor at Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, who closely follows China’s South Asia policy, says, “India has territorial issues with all its neighboring countries, and has always insisted on a tough position on territorial disputes, which is not conducive to a stable and peaceful environment.” On the other hand, he adds, China has resolved most of its border problems with the 14 countries with which it shares borders. Lin thinks India should learn from China’s “experience and political will” in resolving border issue with its neighbors. He says that it is ‘unwise’ of India’s high-ranking officials to imply that China is behind the current border dispute between Nepal and India. 

Old wound

The issue of settlement of tri-junction between Nepal, India, and China has been pending since 1963 when Nepal and China signed a border agreement. “When Nepal and China settled the boundary dispute, the relation between India and China was not cordial,” says former foreign minister Bhek Bahadur Thapa. “So the issue of tri-junction could not be settled. There was consensus that it would be settled at an appropriate time, which never came.”

Kathmandu expects China, a stakeholder in this dispute, to tell India that the new road can come into operation only after addressing Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity concerns. A former Nepali diplomat says that in 2015, China overlooked the issue when it signed the agreement with India, and China will now have to speak up sooner or later.

Member of Nepal-India Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) Surya Nath Upadhyay says that the current dispute cannot be resolved without talking to China. “As we are yet to fix the tri-junction, China’s involvement is necessary,” he says.

Political leaders are also pressing the government to talk to China. Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting, ruling Nepal Communist Party Co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal said: “Lipulekh has emerged as a tri-lateral issue, so it is very difficult to resolve it bilaterally.”

China has not yet spoken about India’s road inauguration. However, when India put Kalapani within its territory in its new political map in November 2019, Wang Xiaolong, spokesperson at the Embassy of China in Kathmandu, had said, “The Chinese side wishes Nepal and India could resolve their territorial disputes on Kalapani through friendly consultations and negotiations.” The statement also said that China always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nepal.

There are reports that the government is preparing to hand a new protest letter to China in this regard, but a final decision on this is pending.

Missing Chinese pressure

In the past, too, Nepal had sought China’s help on the dispute. In 2005, Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs raised the issue of 2004 India-China agreement on border trade. Nepal also asked the visiting Chinese military delegation led by Major General EI Hujeng to help resolve the Kalapani dispute with India. (The armies of Nepal and China used to have top-level discussions on Kalapani and Lipulekh back in the 2000s.)

Nepal has sought the help of India too. Lipulekh Pass has been a recognized trade and pilgrim route between China and India since 1954, and there have been several agreements between them on this route.

The border dispute was removed from government agenda with the formation of Nepal-India Eminent Persons Groups (EPG) in 2016. The two governments had agreed to settle outstanding issues, including border disputes of Kalapani and Susta, in line with the EPG's recommendations. But with India’s reluctance to accept the final EPG report, things have not moved forward.

Nepal has been pressing India for talks after the latter published the political map including the Nepali territory of Kalapani within its borders in November 2019. Nepal has twice proposed foreign secretary-level talks, but India has snubbed both requests.

EPG member Upadhyay thinks that as Nepal has in the past supported China during difficult times, we should expect reciprocal support. “We should not hesitate to seek active support of China to resolve the Lipulekh dispute. Without pressure from China, India will not agree to its resolution.”

The fire-breathing Madhesi leader CK Raut abandoned his secessionist campaign last year following an 11-point agreement with Prime Minister KP Sharma. He is now busy building his party organization in Tarai-Madhes.

Raut has a PhD in computer science from Cambridge University and has worked in various private firms in the US. He had returned to Nepal in 2011 to launch a Madhes independence movement. The Madhesi youths were instantly attracted to this youthful leader who had seemingly given up a comfortable life in the West for the cause of Madhes. His unrestrained diatribes against the ‘racist’ government in Kathmandu, leading to his repeated arrests, further fueled his popularity.

But the common consensus in Madhes is that Raut is gradually losing his ground after the agreement with Oli. The recent unification between the two largest Madhesi forces—the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal and the Federal Socialist Part—has added to the challenges of Raut’s Janamat Party. The Janamat party is now busy laying the ground for the next round of local, provincial, and federal elections.

On 8 March 2019, Raut had signed an 11-point agreement with the federal government, pledging to honor the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Immediately after, Raut registered his party at the Election Commission and gave up the secessionist agenda. Political analyst Surendra Labh says CK Raut’s attraction in Madhes has gone down drastically after the compromise with PM Oli. “People now think he is no different to other Madhes-based politicians,” he says.

Labh does not think Raut’s party will be able to compete against the likes of the new Janata Samajbadi Party, the Nepal Communist Party, and the Nepali Congress in Madhes. “He has built some organizational bases but they are not viable,” Labh says. “The key problem is that Raut’s party has failed to establish a distinct identity,” he added. Another constraint for the party in Madhes, according to Labh, is the paucity of known faces in it besides Raut.

In a local by-election on 30 November 2019, Janamat Party leader Anju Devi Mandal had filed a nomination from Pipara Rural Municipality of Mahottari district. She suffered a humiliating defeat. The ruling NCP won in the rural municipality, while Raut’s candidate failed to secure even the fourth position. The party had also filed its candidacy in the elections for ward chairs but failed to secure even a single seat.  

Raut’s party has almost the same agenda that other Madhes-based parties have had for a long time. They all reckon the 2015 constitution is not democratic and inclusive enough. As the Janamat party’s official document puts it, “It has failed to address the demands of women, Madhesi, Dalit, Tharu, Adhibasi, marginalized, and other backward communities.” 

The party is demanding bulk entry of 30,000 Madhesis in Nepal Army as per the earlier agreement between the government and then Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha on 28 February 2008. It is also asking for a ‘referendum on key issues’ but is yet to point out what those issues might be. The other agendas of Raut’s party are corruption control and good governance, right of self-determination, and various citizenship-related issues.

The party is striving to strengthen its base in Madhes. During the lockdown, party cadres have been busy providing relief to the poor people. “Even now we are busy building party organizations and launching awareness campaigns,” says Central Committee member Kailash Mahato. The party has also started distributing online memberships since the start of the lockdown.

Before the lockdown, the party organized mass rallies in various parts of Madhes. Since the party’s registration, 63 mass rallies have already been held. Similarly, the party has built professional organizations of engineers, teachers, barbers, and Muslims. It is planning on establishing more such sister bodies. Likewise, according to Mahato, the party is expanding its organization abroad, and already has a presence in Dubai and Qatar.

Leaders of other Madhes-based parties see Raut’s emergence as a threat. So there is little cordiality between the two. Other parties accuse Raut of being Oli’s puppet. Says general secretary of then Rastriya Janata Party and leader of the new Janata Samajbadi Party Rajib Jha, “CK Raut was mobilized to cheat the Madhesi people and hatch conspiracy against us,” he says. Jha argues the earlier public fascination with Raut has largely died down.

In Province 2, the sole Madhes-only province, Raut party leaders and cadres have been on a campaign to expose the corruption and weaknesses of the provincial government.

If cornered, Raut’s outfit is likely to play on the ambiguity in the 11-point agreement with the Oli government. Its second point says: “They [the government and Raut] will follow democratic means to address people’s dissatisfaction, including those of Tarai-Madhes.” Janamat party leaders define the ‘democratic means’ as a referendum. But the ruling NCP argues that they refer only to regular elections.

(With inputs from Manika Jha in Janakpur)

As many as 600,000 Nepali migrant workers stranded in the Gulf countries and Malaysia due to the Covid-19 pandemic want to return home. This is in addition to perhaps even more of them who want to reenter their country from neighboring India. Many of them have already lost their jobs while others too await the termination of their contracts. 

According to a preliminary government report, around 500,000 Nepali migrant workers—mainly from the five Gulf countries of Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman—want to return immediately. Even among them, around 100,000 need urgent rescue. But the federal government is yet to come up with a solid repatriation plan. 

“The way I see it, evacuating migrant workers stranded abroad is going to be a bigger challenge than fighting Covid-19 at home,” says Arjun Kanta Mainali, a former joint secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who closely followed the Gulf region while at the ministry. “The government’s first duty is to find out the exact number of people who want to return, or have no other option after losing their jobs. If necessary, we can send a fact-finding mission to those countries,” says Mainali. Without finding out the actual number, he adds, the government will struggle to come up with a credible plan on evacuation, quarantine, and social reintegration of those workers.

Nepal issues work permits for 130 countries. Almost two-thirds of those with work permits end up in Malaysia or in the Gulf countries. Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, who is in regular contact with Nepali missions abroad, accepts that Nepali migrant workers abroad are facing severe hardships due to the corona pandemic—and the situation could get worse.

Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on May 6, Gyawali said preliminary assessment showed “10-30 percent Nepali migrant workers are likely to lose their jobs.” In the past decade, Nepal issued over 3.5 million labor permits. (Nepali workers don’t need permits to work in India.)

Herculean task

The main problems Nepali workers are facing relate to expiry of visa, termination of job contracts, and legal problems arising from visa expiry. Nepal is looking to buy time. Prime Minister KP Oli and Foreign Minister Gyawali are trying to persuade their counterparts in Gulf countries to delay the return of migrant workers. “We cannot evacuate all those who want to return at once, so we have to give priority to those in crisis,” says former government secretary Purna Chandra Bhattarai who worked in the Labor Ministry for a long time.

The first challenge is to arrange their return flights with the state’s limited financial resources. As all stranded migrant workers cannot pay for their tickets, the government will have to pitch in for them. It will also have to hire foreign airlines to airlift them. It will also be a time-consuming process. As the number of workers in Gulf countries and Malaysia is very high, it could take months to complete evacuation even if the task were to start now. “Coming up with a comprehensive repatriation plan is thus difficult without thorough discussions with all the concerned stakeholders,” says Bhattarai. 

The second challenge is arranging quarantine facilities for those who return. Local governments can help arrange quarantine facilities, but they are short on resources. They are asking for cash from the federal government, which in turn is struggling to meet their demand as it too is under considerable financial pressure. As local units have struggled to quarantine and monitor even a handful of people up until now, it is hard to imagine them handling hundreds of returning migrants. 

“Let us say that we as a country are thoroughly unprepared,” says Mainali. Even in the case the Nepali workers are not immediately sent back by their host countries, they will surely come when international air travel resumes. “It’s not like we have an option of not taking back our people,” he adds.  

Scary numbers

The top nine destinations for Nepali migrant workers, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are Malaysia (700,000), Saudi Arabi (400,000), Qatar (365,000), the UAE (250,000), Kuwait (70,000), South Korea (40,000), Bahrain (25,000), Oman (20,000), and Israel (3,000). 

Although there is no official estimate of the number of Nepali migrant workers in India, a report by the South Asian Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) says that it could be as high as 2.8 million. Thousands of Nepali migrant workers go to various parts of India as seasonal migrant workers. Thousands more work in the hospitality sector. Many of them could lose their jobs. 

Creating jobs for those who return will be another big challenge. According to Nepal Labor Force Survey 2018, there are approximately 20.7 million working-age people in the country. Of them, over half are believed to be working in the informal sector. An estimated 500,000 people enter the Nepali labor market annually. Before the onset of the corona crisis, as per the Finance Ministry’s 2018-19 economic survey, the government was planning on transferring unproductive surplus labor force from “agriculture… to service sectors including industry, trade, tourism, education and health.”

With the decimation of these other sectors due to the corona pandemic, the government has been forced into a U-turn, as it now plans on a massive expansion of the agriculture labor force. The hope is that revitalization of agriculture will soak up Nepal’s surplus labor as well as many of the returning migrants. Yet the agriculture plan is short on specifics. 

This lack of seriousness could be costly. It is hard to foresee the socio-economic and political consequences of the state’s failure to adequately integrate the mass of returning migrant workers. 

The budget session of the federal parliament kicked off on May 8 amid a nationwide lockdown. President Bidya Devi Bhandari is scheduled to present the government’s policy and program on May 15. As per constitutional provisions, government will have to present budget for fiscal year 2020-21 on May 28. Before that, there will be pre-budget discussions.

Before the house commencement, of 441 lawmakers and employees of the central secretariat underwent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) coronavirus tests. Untested lawmakers were not allowed into the parliament. 

Speaking in the House of Representative, opposition parties’ lawmakers came down heavily against the government. President of the main opposition Sher Bahadur Deuba questioned the intent with which PM KP Oli brought the twin ordinances.

“At a time the whole country is suffering from the coronavirus, the prime minister introduced ordinances with the goal of weakening democratic norms and values,” Deuba said. (After widespread criticism, the government has already withdrawn the ordinances.)

“There was also a case of abduction of a lawmaker. Nepali Congress takes these issues seriously and concludes that the government has lost political and moral ground to remain in power,” Deuba said.   

Leader of Janata Samajbadi Party Baburam Bhattarai urged Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to step down, partly over his poor health. “The government’s image has gone down because of its anti-democracy activities. The prime minister should step down to protect Loktantra,” Bhattarai said. “The efforts to split parties and the intent of capturing the constitutional council are clear dangers to democracy,” he added.

Deputy Parliamentary Party leader of ruling Nepal Communist Party Subas Nembang said both ruling and opposition parties should stand together to fight coronavirus. Nembang said along with endorsing the budget, this parliament session has a responsibility of settling the remaining issues related to the peace process. 

“The law-amendment process of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on Enforced Disappearance has reached a final stage. I am hopeful the remaining tasks of peace process will be completed in this session of parliament,” Nembang said.

The next meeting of parliament is scheduled for May 10. PM Oli is likely to address the Parliament on the day.

Nepal government on May 6 extended the nationwide lockdown against Covid-19 by another 12 days. It did so in spite of heavy pressure from economists and businessmen who were in favor of progressive loosening of the lockdown. 

The hard reality is that Nepal is unprepared for a post-lockdown situation. “Back in the middle of January, Nepal became the first South Asian country to detect the novel coronavirus,” says Dr Kiran Raj Pandey, who has been closely tracking the virus in Nepal. “Even the World Health Organization was warning us that we were a high-risk country. And yet there were next to no preparations.” 

As Nepal fumbled for a response, developed countries did two major things: carry out massive testing and gauge the capacity of their healthcare system. Through massive testing, they identified the actual status of the spread. That, in turn, prepared them to start easing the lockdown in low-risk areas. There has been no such effort in Nepal. For instance, Nepal has failed to effectively manage the flow of people along the porous Nepal-India border during the lockdown. Nor has it been able to control the free movement of its nationals within the country. 

It has been almost five months since the first outbreak; corona detection kits and medical equipment are still in short supply. The Nepal Army was entrusted to procure medical supplies from abroad a month ago, yet procedural hurdles continue to hamstring its efforts. In the absence of test kits, testing has been halted in parts of the country. In other parts, testing machines have stopped functioning. 

Indefinitely prolonging the lockdown without also carrying out the requisite number of tests is prolonging the inevitable, and will contribute to further impoverishment of the daily wage earners who are already struggling. Yet there is also no hard data on the social and economic impacts of the lockdown in Nepal. In this situation, Dr Pandey advises gradual easing of the lockdown coupled with massive testing. 

The government was apparently preparing to ease the lockdown in low-risk areas after May 6. But the fear of the already significant movement of people inside the country turning into a flood stopped it. 

A team of security forces has given color codes to 77 districts on the basis of risk: red (high risk area), yellow (partial risk area) and green (low risk area). According to the Home Ministry, 29 districts are categorized as red, 28 as yellow, and 20 as green areas. 

But it is not easy for security forces to control people’s movement. Many vehicles have gotten travel passes from local authorities, which the security personnel must honor. Already, people who had gone out of Kathmandu at the start of the lockdown are returning, and most of them are not following quarantine guidelines. Thus even though Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa was in favor of a gradual easing of the lockdown, he had to back down after the Health Ministry intervened. 

Similarly, post-lockdown measures have not been thought through. Doctors suggest continuing with social distancing measures for months even if the lockdown is eased. 

On May 1, a doctor’s team of Kiran Raj Pandey, Anup Subedee, Bishesh Khanal and Bhagawan Koirala published their joint study: “Covid-19 Control Strategies and Intervention Effects in Resource Limited Settings: A Modeling Study.” It suggests measures that can be adopted after easing the lockdown. The study says, “A month-long lockdown and physical distancing interventions combined with an active case finding intervention instituted early is likely to effectively control a potential epidemic, however physical distancing and testing interventions have to continue for a year.”

The findings suggest that the best control strategy against the epidemic is a combination of interventions that identify and isolate infected individuals and reduce contact between individuals. “A lockdown can prevent the escalation of the epidemic, but is likely to be of limited value if no additional control measures are put in place,” the report says.  

One problem is that the country’s average age is 24.6 years. Most of the youth may not show any symptoms and simply pass on the virus to the infirm and the elderly, who could be affected much worse. This is also why widespread testing, including that of the youth, is vital. 

“Again, the easiest and most effective way of stopping the virus from spreading is massive testing. If the pandemic goes out of control, it would be very difficult for us to stop it,” Dr Pandey warns. 

Despite a month and half of lockdown, the number of novel coronavirus cases in Nepal continues to rise. As of May 5, the number of infected has climbed to 82. Of them, 61 are male and 21 female.

Banke district’s Nepalgunj, which lies on the border with India, has emerged as the hotspot in Nepal, with 24 new infections reported in the past couple of days. In the past 24 hours, seven new cases were detected there. Local authorities have imposed a curfew to contain the virus. Authorities fear the outbreak in Nepalgunj could reach a community-transmission level.

According to data provided by the Ministry of Health, 31 people have been infected in Province 1, 13 in Province 2, 7 in Bagmati Province, 1 in Gandaki Province, 24 in Province 5, 0 in Karnali Province, and 5 in Sudurpaschim Province. 

According to the ministry, around 21,000 people are currently quarantined in various parts of the country, with 120 people in isolation. “The health condition of all infected people is normal and they continue to undergo treatment,” said Dr. Bikas Devkota, spokesperson at the ministry.

Authorities attribute the increasing number of corona cases to flexible lockdown. Even during the nationwide lockdown, people have been traveling. There has been a growing movement of people in and out of Kathmandu as well as along the Nepal-India border.

As the prolonged lockdown has badly hit the country’s economy, authorities are working on multiple models to ease the lockdown. Speaking at a parliamentary committee, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa said that the government was contemplating easing the lockdown as it could create a potential economic crisis.

Public health experts warn that easing lockdown without a massive expansion of testing could lead to a second wave of transmissions. In Nepal, the testing process has been slow. Due to the delay in purchasing testing kits, government hospitals are struggling to expand testing. It has been over a month since the decision on buying corona kits through a Government-to-Government (G-2-G) process was made. But there has been little progress since. 

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli may have averted an impending crisis in the ruling Nepal Communist Party for now. But, as soon as the coronavirus threat dies down, there could yet be stiff opposition to the functioning of his government from the opposition parties.

The opposition parties—chiefly the Nepali Congress, the Samajbadi Party, the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal, and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party—had little coordination before the federal government came up with two controversial ordinances on April 20. The ordinances, later withdrawn, allowed for easier splits of Nepali political parties and restricted the role of the main opposition party in the constitutional council, the body tasked with making appointments to vital constitutional bodies.

At the time, even if opposition parties were critical of government functioning, no one was demanding the prime minister’s resignation. In fact, when the anti-coronavirus lockdown was put in place, the opposition parties fully supported the government. Yet the ordinances brought with ‘mala fide’ intent changed all that.

It helped bring about the long-delayed merger between the Samajbadi and the RJPN, the two Madhes-based parties, which could now spell trouble for the Oli government.

Now big and small opposition parties are preparing to fight the government’s ‘totalitarian tendencies’, which includes asking PM Oli to step down.

Political analyst Puranjan Acharya who closely tracks Congress internal politics says much depends on party leadership. “Congress President as well as its other office-bearers are failing to effectively check the Oli government’s totalitarian tendency,” says Acharya, adding that the second generation NC leaders should step forward.

Countering ‘divide and conquer’

Three opposition parties—the NC, the new Janata Samajbadi Party, and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP)—had even issued a joint statement deploring government functioning, and they plan on moving ahead together. “The current government is headed towards totalitarianism by destroying democratic norms and values… We vow to collectively fight this,” says their joint statement released last week. The pair of ordinances riled the opposition parties as they supposedly demonstrated the PM’s intent on ‘dividing and conquering’ the opposition. Another issue that angered them was the ‘abduction’ by Oli’s close associates of Dr. Surendra Yadav, a Samajbadi lawmaker, in order to split the Madhes-based party. Had the party split, the seven breakaway members were scheduled to join the Oli-led government.

Even though opposition parties have their respective agendas and don’t see eye to eye on everything, they plan on developing an alliance on common issues. The top agenda for Madhes-based parties has always been constitution amendment. They supported the Oli government so that the constitution could be amended. They now feel betrayed. Then RJPN never joined the government. Nonetheless, it helped Oli garner two-thirds support in the federal parliament, but pulled its support after Oli ruled out amendment before the next elections.

The Samajwadi Party Nepal, which unlike the RJPN was a part of the federal government, parted ways this past December, citing the failure of PM Oli to take an initiative to amend the national charter.

Though the NC and the Janata Samajbadi have come together against the government, there are some ideological differences between them. For instance, the Congress does not support the Madhes-centric parties’ ethnicity-based federal model.

Janata Samajbadi leader Keshav Jha acknowledges efforts to form an anti-government alliance between three opposition forces. “Though we have differences with the Congress and the RPP, there could be alliance on corruption, bad governance and other people-centric issues,” says Jha. After the lockdown is over, the Janata Samajbadi is preparing to hit the streets in Madhes with the support of other backers of identity politics.

The RPP, currently led by Kamal Thapa, Prakash Chandra Lohani and Pashupati Shumsher Rana, however, is still undecided about joining the opposition front. The party decision to join a meeting called by the Congress last week generated controversy. Thapa expressed his dissatisfaction over Lohani and Rana signing a joint press statement issued by opposition parties. “There are views in the party that we should retain our separate identity instead of joining any block,” says Mohan Shrestha, an RPP central committee member. Shrestha, however, says the RPP will harden its anti-government position in the days ahead.

Holding Oli to account

The opposition parties are likely to mount their protests against the Oli government, either collectively or on their own. And when the national parliament opens for budget session, they will try to hold the federal government to account for its supposed failure to contain the novel coronavirus contagion.

NC Central Working Committee member Shekhar Koirala says time is ripe for opposition parties to band together against the government's intent of destroying democratic values. “Minimizing the role of opposition party in the constitutional council suggests the government plans to control constitutional bodies, and destroy the principle of separation of powers. The government is on a totalitarian path, and the NC shoulders the responsibility of protecting democratic norms and values,” says Koirala. He thinks that as the main opposition party, it is the responsibility of Nepali Congress to bring all opposition forces together.