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As pressure continues to build on Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to step down, he has only two options: either establish his majority support in party’s standing committee and parliamentary party, or quit. Another, albeit less likely scenario, is continuation of Oli as PM if he publicly acknowledges his mistakes, and assures the rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal-Madhav Kumar Nepal faction that those mistakes won’t be repeated.

In the nine-member NCP secretariat, the top party organ that oversees the party’s regular functioning, PM Oli is already in a minority. He is also unsure about his ability to garner majority support in the 45-member standing committee and the 174-member parliamentary party. This is why he is delaying the standing committee meeting. Oli says he is busy preparing the new policy and program and the budget. But he was nonetheless forced to call the party’s secretariat meeting on the evening of April 29. The meeting witnessed heated exchanges, with majority members demanding his resignation from the posts of PM and party chair.  

PM Oli is trying to secure the support of majority lawmakers of the party. In the federal lower house, the ruling NCP has 174 lawmakers. Of them, 78 are in Oli’s favor, 53 in Dahal’s, and 43 in Nepal’s. To establish majority support, Oli needs 88 lawmakers. In order to do so, Oli is reportedly offering ministerial positions to the lawmakers close to Dahal and Nepal.  

If Oli refuses to resign even after failing to gain the support of majority lawmakers in the party, the rival faction is likely to register a no-confidence motion in the parliament against the PM. In this scenario, he will lose his post, as opposition parties are sure to vote against him. However, both Dahal and Nepal are reluctant to opt for this course as it could ultimately lead to the party’s split. The two are of the view that Oli should be removed from the PM’s chair by keeping the party intact. So their first priority is forcing him to resign by pushing him into a minority in vital party committees.

Hemmed in

PM Oli has warned of grave consequences. With President Bidhya Devi Bhandari firmly on his side, he can threaten with mid-term elections or a state of emergency. However, the constitution does not allow PM to announce mid-term elections, says constitutional expert Dr. Bipin Adhikari. “Mid-term elections can happen only if the federal lower house cannot elect new prime minister on repeated attempts. The constitution has envisaged a full-term of parliament,” Adhikari says.

With limited options, the PM has adopted a strategy of divide and conquer, and buying time to weaken the rival faction. In the party’s secretariat meeting, Oli dropped a bombshell when he proposed making Bamdev Gautam, someone who is not even a member of parliament, as prime minister.

“The proposal of Gautam as prime minister has come with the intent of fomenting divisions. As this is not a feasible proposal, it could easily backfire on Oli,” says NCP leader Haribol Gajurel, a confidante of co-chair Dahal. “It is not in PM Oli’s nature to realize his mistakes, and the new proposal will further complicate things,” he says. In the secretariat meeting, Gautam, however, supported Oli’s proposal even while Nepal and Dahal abstained.

The constitution allows only a member of the federal lower house to be the prime minister. Oli has for long been neglecting party secretariat’s decision to appoint Gautam to the federal upper house, and to clear his way to the PM’s chair by amending the constitution. Now Oli has made a sudden volte-face. Nonetheless, amending the constitution won’t be easy as the ruling party is short of the required two-thirds majority in the lower house. “It is just a time-buying tactic,” argues Gajurel.

In the April 29 secretariat meeting, PM Oli also proposed the elevation of senior leader Nepal to the post of third party co-chair. Earlier, through his close confidants, PM Oli had offered some ministerial and chief ministerial positions to leaders close to Nepal. Similarly, Oli has assured Nepal of his support for the latter’s bid for party chairmanship in the party’s next general convention. Yet the ongoing corona crisis will make it nearly impossible to hold the general convention by the scheduled late-April 2021 date. Nepal knows this all too well.

The secretariat is again meeting on May 2 to take a final call on the standing committee. However, according to leaders, Oli wants to push it back as he currently does not command a majority in the committee.

Towards denouement

Both the NCP factions are in the middle of separate signature campaigns to prove their majorities in the parliamentary party. If the rival faction succeeds in securing majority support, Oli will have to resign. “It will be better for the prime minister to heed public opinion and step down. He has become highly unpopular following his pair of mistimed ordinances,” said Gajurel.

The long-standing rift in the ruling party had reached a climax when Oli issued two ordinances, one related to making splits in Nepali political parties easier, another related to minimizing the role of main opposition party in the constitutional council, a body tasked with making vital appointments to various constitutional bodies. Oli didn’t consult anyone beyond his small coterie on these ordinances.

Oli withdrew the ordinances after considerable backlash from in and outside the ruling party. Yet many party leaders reckoned he had already gone too far. In the past two and half years, Dahal and Nepal have been unhappy with what they saw as Oli’s ‘monopoly’ in the government and the party.

Oli is trying to buy time on two grounds. First, he says the rival faction should wait till the coronavirus crisis is over. Second, he argues that the government is already preparing to summon the House soon. As per constitutional provisions, the government will have to present its budget by May-end. Before that, there has to be a pre-budget parliamentary discussion and the government has to unveil its annual policies and programs.

On April 25, Nepal marked the fifth anniversary of the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake that rendered nearly 3.5 million people homeless, destroyed countless public and government buildings, and claimed around 9,000 lives. Five years on, 87 percent of private houses have been rebuilt, according to public records. Yet thousands are still forced to take shelter in tents and cracked buildings.

Soon after the earthquake, the government decided to give Rs 300,000 in grant to each affected household, on an installment basis, to build new houses. But the cash proved insufficient for the poor and vulnerable groups to build houses by sticking to the construction standards set by the Nepal Reconstruction Authority (NRA). In contrast, the comparably rich households took the government grant and built their houses, either by adding their own money or by taking out loans.

Initially, neither the government nor donor agencies paid much attention to vulnerable groups. There are basically two categories of households that have been unable to rebuild. The first group is comprised of single women, elderly, disabled, the landless people who do not have citizenship certificates, and the extremely poor, all of whom have been categorized as vulnerable. They are yet to start rebuilding despite accepting Rs 50,000 in the first installment of the government grant. 

In the second group are those who built the house foundation with the first installment but were then unable to complete the house. For this group of people, the NRA has a policy of providing Rs 300,000 in loan with five percent interest. But the commercial banks are hesitant, and an expected progress has not materialized. NRA officials say banks are not cooperating enough. 

 Foundational challenge

Sonam Funjo Sherpa, 65, from Chhekampar of Gorkha district shares a painful story. Widowed after the death of his wife a decade ago, he has been alone and unable to rebuild. “He cannot walk, but it takes five days to reach to district headquarters to apply for the grant,” says Ward Chair Pasang Funjo Lama. “He has a torn citizenship certificate without a photo, and his name is blurred. So he needs a new citizenship certificate too.” Sherpa is living in a house damaged by the earthquake.

Likewise, Ram Bahadur Shrestha, a permanent resident of Indrawati Rural Municipality in Sindhupalchowk district, says the Rs 50,000 he got in first installment was spent flattening his steep land so that he could build on it. “I do not have money to build the damp-proof course, the house foundation, which is essential to be eligible for the second grant installment,” Shrestha says, adding that he is not in a position to take out a loan. Nor does he have all the required documents. His four-member family is living in a makeshift house. 

Initially, there were an estimated 18,000 vulnerable people. Of them, according to the NRA, 3,000 have built their houses with the assistance of donor agencies, local governments, and other philanthropic organizations. “Currently, around 15,000 people have not started building their houses. We have instructed local governments to collect data of such groups. The lockdown has disrupted the task of data-collection,” says Manohar Ghimire, joint spokesperson and information officer at the NRA.

To resolve their problem, the NRA plans to provide them with an additional Rs 50,000 in grant but the cabinet is yet to endorse it. Similarly, the NRA will request local governments and interested donor agencies to assist vulnerable groups. “We are deploying carpenters and other technical manpower to help this group build their houses,” says Ghimire.

 Commercial disinterest 

For the second category of people, the NRA has been urging the commercial banks to simplify loan procedure. Soon after the earthquake, the government brought out a scheme of providing low-interest bank loans but the scheme has been poorly implemented. Commercial banks were reluctant to give loans to poor people, and the process was made extremely difficult for those who could not show a regular source of income. 

The NRA has also been continuously talking with commercial banks about concessional loans for vulnerable people. In 2017, the cabinet had endorsed the Working Procedure for Subsidised Credit, which allows the people who were unable to build houses after taking the first installment to take out further loans. But hundreds of earthquake-affected families cannot produce the required documents. 

The vulnerable people in earthquake-affected districts are still living in temporary or damaged houses, and even a small earthquake can destroy their abodes. There are also poor people who got the first requirement but spent the money to sustain their livelihood. Bishnu Maya Pariyar of Ajirkot, Gorkha district says, “The 50,000 rupees we got in the first installment were spent on daily essentials. Now, we don’t know how to go about rebuilding our homes,” Pariyar says. 

Single women face additional difficulties in earthquake-affected districts. Sarita Karki, 32, a resident of Kamalamai Municipality-5 of Sindhuli district, has lost all hopes. Soon after the earthquake, her husband, who was working in Malaysia, died. “I have since been struggling to feed my son and daughter. I hear the government helps single women purchase land and build a house. But I don’t know how to go about it,” she says.  

Bishnu Maya Magar, 62, of the same village, was abandoned by her husband 10 years ago. Her only income is government allowance for single women, and there is no way she can build a house on her own.  

Five years since the earthquake, thousands of poor and vulnerable families are still struggling to put a roof over their heads. With the monsoon approaching, they could not get help soon enough. 

With inputs from our district correspondents Shiva Ram Upreti (Gorkha), Yubaraj Puri (Sindhupalchowk), and Rajan Gaunle (Sindhuli)

It has been over four months since the first outbreak of the novel coronavirus was reported in Wuhan of Hubei province, China. On January 24 Nepal recorded its first Covid-19 case. Any way you look at it, Nepal had sufficient time to prepare, including on the purchase of medicines and medical kits. Yet most of this precious time was wasted.   

Medical doctors, nurses, and other frontline health workers say they are desperately short on gloves, medical masks, respirators, goggles, face shields, gowns, and aprons. Other urgent needs are ventilators, testing kits, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), and medicines. The testing process has been painfully slow due to the lack of sufficient test kits and other supporting equipment.  

Nepal has fallen far short of testing all corona suspects, which is vital to curtailing the spread of the virus. Right now only those who came to Nepal from abroad after the second week of March are being tested. Public health experts say low testing levels could be a reason behind the paucity of detected cases in Nepal, even when compared to other South Asian countries. Similarly, due to the lack of PPE, doctors and other health workers are reluctant to treat those suspected of corona or any other infectious disease. 

A doctor at the Kathmandu Medical College (KMC) says that the hospital staff has been told to prepare for the testing and treatment of possible Covid-19 patients, even as they are short on PPE and other protective gear. “Doctors, nurses and other working staffs worry they will be asked to tend to suspected Covid-19 patients even without these protective gears,” the doctor says, requesting anonymity.  

The situation is worse outside Kathmandu. For example, in the vulnerable Province 2, there are just 11 ventilators and testing level is slow. Various local governments have also complained of insufficient test kits. 

Long and short of it

Dr. Lochan Karki, President of Nepal Medical Association (NMC), acknowledges a slight improvement in the delivery of PPE. “In the initial days, the situation was dire. Things now are better, but we still don’t have sufficient stock if the number of coronavirus cases shoots up,” Karki says. He says still both private and government hospitals are short of vital medical equipment. Some private hospitals are thus trying to get supplies from private companies abroad. 
A rising global demand and severe disruptions in global PPE supply chains maybe a reason for the delay in their import in Nepal. But the federal government’s mishandling of the purchasing process is undoubtedly more responsible. First, the government initiated the process too late. Second, the decision to allow a private company to make these imports without due process invited controversy. The contract was scrapped and another one started, which also took time. 

To fast track the process, a government-to-government (G2G) purchase was initiated. On March 29, the cabinet instructed Nepal Army to do so. The army wrote to China, India, Israel, Singapore and South Korea, requesting for the needed medical supplies. 
The army took nearly three weeks to complete paperwork. Even after this, Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali had to talk to high-level Indian and Chinese officials to hurry things up. Of the five countries, there has been some progress on the purchase of test kits and medical equipment from China, while some medicines have also been imported from India.  

Nepal Army completed paperwork to purchase kits and medicine from China on April 20, and the army says it will take another two weeks for the first consignment to arrive. Chinese companies have informed that they are under pressure to deliver to other countries as well. In total, the army will be importing 340 tons of medical supplies worth some Rs 2.24 billion from China—and in multiple stages. The first consignment will be via a charter flight and the subsequent ones will be imported via road. 

Wait and watch, not  

On the purchase of medicines from India, there has been no substantial progress. Nepal Army has dispatched a list of medicines and equipment but is yet to receive specific prices for those items, says army Spokesperson Bigyan Dev Pandey. India is itself purchasing medical supplies, including test kits, from China. Government officials have not shared details about the progress in bringing medical supplies from Israel, Singapore, and South Korea. 
Despite the initial controversy, private companies are also being used for the imports. The Department of Health Services has signed three separate agreements with Om Surgical, Hamro Medi Concern, and Lumbini Health Care for the import of medical goods. These companies are expected to bring medical equipment worth Rs 300 million from China within next two weeks. They could yet take some time to arrive. 

As the World Health Organization puts it, the disruptions in the global supply of PPE and other medical supplies owes to, “…rising demand, panic buying and to some extent misuse of those equipment. Supplies can take months to deliver and market manipulation is widespread, with stocks frequently sold to the highest bidder.” 
To meet rising global demand, says WHO, the medical industry needs to crack up manufacturing by 40 percent. 
Nepal must increase its imports amid all these challenges. Its lethargic health bureaucracy needs to step up its game if Nepal is to tide over the corona crisis with limited damage. 

At a time Nepal is struggling with Covid-19, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli-led government on April 20 introduced an ordinance to relax the provision of party split. The ordinance has changed some provisions of the Political Parties Act.

According to new provisions, a new party can be registered at the Election Commission with 40 percent support either in parliamentary party or in party central committee. President Bidya Devi Bhandari issued the ordinance on the cabinet’s recommendation. Earlier, there was the provision of 40 percent support both in parliamentary party as well as the central committee for party split. 

The ordinance came at a time when there is news of growing rift inside the ruling Nepal Communist Party. The NCP leaders, however, say the change won’t affect the dynamics of ruling parties.

It is unclear why government amended the law at a time the country is concentrating its efforts on fighting the coronavirus. The provision, however, makes it easy for rival factions of ruling parties to break off.

There are speculations the new ordinance is aimed at engineering a divide among Madhes-based parties. It is rumored that some members of the two main Madhesi parties—the Samajbadi Party and the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal—want to join the government.

Samajbadi leader Upendra Yadav and RJPN’s Rajendra Mahato both said that although the new ordinance was apparently brought to weaken them, the move could backfire on the ruling parties.

Oli’s decision invited criticism from his own and opposition parties. In the cabinet meeting, ministers from former Maoist party objected to the PM’s proposal. Similarly, Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali also opposed it. PM Oli, however, insisted on the proposal’s passage saying that it would not affect NCP dynamics. The main opposition Nepali Congress, in its preliminary reaction, termed the timing of the move ‘inappropriate’.

As the federal government stumbles in its efforts to manage the Covid-19 crisis and limit its fallout, the need for the scrutiny and oversight of the national parliament is being acutely felt.

The delay in purchase of kits and logistics to fight Covid-19, the issue of people stranded in different parts of the country, the plight of Nepali migrant workers, PM KP Sharma Oli’s reported instruction to ministers and party leaders to stay away from the media, and the controversial recall and restoration of Doctor Sher Bahadur Pun from Sukraraj Hospital—are some issues that could have been credibly discussed and sorted out by an in-session parliament. Similarly, there are reports of local governments politicizing relief packages, and people in need not getting them.

“If the parliament had been sitting, it could have forced the government to address those issues without delay,” says political analyst Shyam Shrestha. It may be difficult to hold a full session of parliament due to the fear of the virus, Shrestha adds, but speakers, committee presidents and lawmakers can still play a more proactive role through videoconferences and other means. “But they seem blissfully unaware of the parliament’s crucial role in the current pandemic.”

After the imposition of the nationwide lockdown, the government had ended the parliament’s winter session. In the parliament’s absence, the only way the government can formulate urgent laws are via ordinances, a temporary measure rarely used in parliamentary democracies. Senior Advocate at Supreme Court and National Assembly member Radheshyam Adhikari thus urges the government and political parties to summon the federal parliament at the earliest.  The parliamentary procedures allow the government to call a special session of parliament during a crisis. 

“We can convene the parliament after adopting sanitary measures such as washing hands before attending meetings, disinfecting the meeting hall, and barring lawmakers who show virus symptoms,” he says.

No time to hibernate

The government shortened the parliament’s winter session even though there was no legal or constitutional obligation to do so. The 275 members of the House of Representatives and the 59 in the National Assembly are effectively on a break.

Different countries have different ways of running their parliaments during a crisis. The Inter-Parliamentary Union, a global think-thank on Parliament, offers some suggestions.

Only the parliament committees may meet; or the parliament can meet virtually using remote methods. “Many countries are changing their laws to allow the virtual functioning of parliament with a view that lockdown could be extended for long,” the union says.

In Nepal, some parliamentary committees as well as the upper house did try to meet virtually but such meetings were ineffective. Adhikari of the federal upper house says the problem is lack of sophisticated technology to keep the participants engaged. “There is thus no option to physical meetings,” he adds.

Lawmakers suggest convening parliamentary committees of House of Representative, National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies to take up pandemic-related issues. If the cabinet can meet, why can’t parliamentary committees, they ask?

Another Nepali Congress federal upper house lawmaker Prakash Pantha also thinks there should have been more effort to keep the parliament open and functional.

During the pandemic, the government needs to pass emergency bills to allow government to exercise additional powers. In the absence of the parliament, the government is free to introduce ordinances or decrees, which, often, instead of addressing underlying problems, only end up serving vested interests.

Sufficient budget and resources are needed to fight the pandemic. If the current pandemic budget is insufficient, budget needs to be transferred from other heads. For instance, the federal government wants to use the money allocated under constituency development fund, but in the parliament’s absence, it has been unable to do so.

Missing collective wisdom

“During a time of crisis, there is a tendency to justify a centralized leadership. Yet that does not mean the executive cannot make mistakes and does not need check and balance,” says Shrestha, the political analyst. “There is a need for collective wisdom right now, and it is not just about criticizing the government but also supporting its genuine efforts.”

Another important role of the parliament is to hold government accountable. Ruling Nepal Communist Party federal lower house lawmaker Birodh Khatiwada says the parliament can play an important role in monitoring government response to Covid-19. “Discussions are underway on making the parliament functional. If it cannot sit, the parliamentarians can at least monitor the work of the federal, provincial and local governments in their respective constituencies,” Khatiwada says.

Former Prime Minister and Chairman of Federal Council of Socialist Party Baburam Bhattarai, another lower house MP, is also taking the initiative to hold virtual meetings of parliamentary committees. The meeting of the Finance Committee he is a part of was scheduled for April 19, but was put off at the eleventh hour. Expressing his displeasure over the decision to cancel the meeting, Bhattarai tweeted, “Speaker, Committee chair and all concerned were positive on the virtual meeting. If there are legal issues to hold such meetings they should be resolved.”

As per constitutional provisions, the government will have to table its budget in the parliament by May-end. Before that, the president will present government policies and programs. The parties are yet to discuss the kind of constitutional crisis that will ensue if the parliament cannot meet for the budget session. Substantive anti-Covid-19 measures are apparently planned for the budget session. Yet the parliament could not be convened too soon.

The novel coronavirus pandemic could have a lasting impact on the functioning of the Nepali state. First, there is now a risk that the government of KP Oli could clamp down on dissent and cement its hold on power on the excuse of tackling Covid-19. Even within the ruling Nepal Communist Party, co-chair Oli could use the pandemic to push back the party’s general convention slated for the second week of April 2021. Or that at least is the fear of party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal camp. Without the general convention, Dahal cannot stake his claim on the party’s sole chairmanship.

Yet there are also those who believe that if PM Oli cannot properly handle the corona crisis, and if he is seen intent on clinging to power by hook or by crook, the tide in the party could turn against Oli. Says NCP leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta: “If PM Oli tries to cover up his weaknesses instead of correcting them, it will lead to growing polarization within the party, with the eventual weakening of incumbent leadership.” Likewise, with political activism around the country coming to a standstill, incumbent Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba could also try to delay the party’s general convention.

Another interesting issue the pandemic has thrown up is the role of the Nepal Army. The national charter allows army mobilization during national emergencies. But even though the pandemic has the country under its grips, the federal government is yet to declare a state of emergency. So how might the army be used? One way would be for the national force to follow the leadership of the Health Ministry, the lead agency in the country’s anti-corona efforts. In fact, even here, there is a big grey area.

This is partly because the National Security Council that can recommend army mobilization to the President has not met in a long time. The NSC could have met at this time of national crisis and charted out a role for the army, which hasn’t happened. Instead, the army has been given the controversial responsibility of importing vital medical equipment, when there was no need to involve the army. “The army could have told the government that it does not want to be involved in such business deals,” says Bhatta, who is also an expert on national security.

There is before us the herculean task of defeating the novel coronavirus that has challenged even the best healthcare systems in the world. This task is made harder still without a clear roadmap, and given the unclear roles of vital state institutions like the Nepal Army and the Armed Police Force. Without working out who is responsible for what and without ensuring a semblance of check and balance, the corona crisis could turn into a catastrophe.  

The novel coronavirus pandemic could have a lasting impact on the functioning of the Nepali state. First, there is now a risk that the government of KP Oli could clamp down on dissent and cement its hold on power on the excuse of tackling Covid-19. Even within the ruling Nepal Communist Party, co-chair Oli could use the pandemic to push back the party’s general convention slated for the second week of April 2021. Or that at least is the fear of party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal camp. Without the general convention, Dahal cannot stake his claim on the party’s sole chairmanship.

Yet there are also those who believe that if PM Oli cannot properly handle the corona crisis, and if he is seen intent on clinging to power by hook or by crook, the tide in the party could turn against Oli. Says NCP leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta: “If PM Oli tries to cover up his weaknesses instead of correcting them, it will lead to growing polarization within the party, with the eventual weakening of incumbent leadership.” Likewise, with political activism around the country coming to a standstill, incumbent Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba could also try to delay the party’s general convention.

Another interesting issue the pandemic has thrown up is the role of the Nepal Army. The national charter allows army mobilization during national emergencies. But even though the pandemic has the country under its grips, the federal government is yet to declare a state of emergency. So how might the army be used? One way would be for the national force to follow the leadership of the Health Ministry, the lead agency in the country’s anti-corona efforts. In fact, even here, there is a big grey area.

This is partly because the National Security Council that can recommend army mobilization to the President has not met in a long time. The NSC could have met at this time of national crisis and charted out a role for the army, which hasn’t happened. Instead, the army has been given the controversial responsibility of importing vital medical equipment, when there was no need to involve the army. “The army could have told the government that it does not want to be involved in such business deals,” says Bhatta, who is also an expert on national security.

There is before us the herculean task of defeating the novel coronavirus that has challenged even the best healthcare systems in the world. This task is made harder still without a clear roadmap, and given the unclear roles of vital state institutions like the Nepal Army and the Armed Police Force. Without working out who is responsible for what and without ensuring a semblance of check and balance, the corona crisis could turn into a catastrophe.  

Kathmandu: The number of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) cases in Nepal has reached 30, with 14 new cases reported in the past 24 hours.

According to Ministry of Health and Population, 12 news cases were reported in a mosque in Udayapur district, and two cases in Chitwan district.  The ministry has not disclosed the details of people infected. This is most number of cases reported in a single day in Nepal. 

In recent days, the government has expedited testing of suspected people and deployed rapid medical test teams in almost all of the 77 districts.