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While national politics in Europe has witnessed the resurgence of the far-right, an unprecedented congress-communist coalition has emerged in Nepal, with KP Oli playing a crucial role in the country’s political chess game. Oli is considered the most astute political leader in contemporary Nepali politics, second only to King Mahendra, and is thought to have the same level of sensitivity as BP Koirala when it comes to foreign policy and international diplomacy.

Yet, the crucial concern is—can Oli be daring enough to programmatically handle a variety of present-day pressing issues in domestic, regional and external affairs? In the domestic sphere, the most persistent issues that need to be handled with utmost sensibility are the essence of democratic governance, economic prosperity, development, political stability, territorial sovereignty, and national security. On the regional front, the immediate neighbors—China and India—are trying to narrow down their misunderstandings and resolve various pressing issues including the border issues by improving their relations, while both of them are likely to improve relations with Nepal as well. 

They are expected to resolve persistent issues with Nepal as well. China has constantly put Nepal in its development and diplomatic priority, while India has most recently revised its aid policy to Nepal. In this regard, Nepal ought to maintain a balance in its relations with both parties by prioritizing its own national interest, regardless of their covert political agendas. 

Indeed, the Oli government will encounter numerous foreign policy challenges from all sides. The most important concerns, however, will be striking a delicate balance in the country’s relations with China, India, the US and the EU.

With an eye toward the North, Oli himself signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deal with China in 2017, and it is anticipated that his current administration will rationally carry it out. The Oli government has already started facing multiple pressures on foreign policy, including the status of BRI implementation within the parliament as well as from outside. Given that the alliance with the CPN (Maoist Center) was recently crushed, Oli may have to endure pressure from the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) in the name of maintaining communist unity in Nepal. PM Oli should be sensible enough in implementing the past agreements or initiating new ones with both India and China by keeping national interest above all else. In the current tenure, Oli should astonishingly initiate talks with China to grant visa-free travel to Nepali citizens in China. This would not only help strengthen people-to-people contact and enhance trade activity by opening several connectivity options between China and Nepal but also help elevate the global status of the Nepali passport, which would indeed lead Oli at the helm of foreign policy.

While turning toward the South, border and trade issues and the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report are ever-pressing concerns. Oli has garnered huge support by including in Nepal’s map the territories of Kalapani, Lympiadhura and Lipulekh on the basis of historical evidence like land tax payment papers and historical accounts, and the formation of the EPG, so Oli is expected to be more apprehensive with revisiting, and resolving these issues. India, however, has its own share of problems and foreign policy challenges, as it has recently witnessed unprecedented politico-electoral changes, while the opposition in the Indian Parliament has emerged stronger. Chances of the Indian National Congress winning the next election and forming a government are greater. In light of the impending change of power in New Delhi, the Oli administration ought to strengthen ties with the ruling party along with the opposition in the Indian parliament. This is because the Congress has openly backed Nepal on a number of issues, most notably the blockade in 2015, when Oli was leading the government in Kathmandu. India, however, is carefully balancing its relations with all powers, including the US, China, Russia, and the EU, with the Modi government acting in a very dynamic manner and conducting a shrewd and sensible foreign policy with all of them. The Oli government in Kathmandu ought to do similar stratagem in foreign policy execution with its immediate neighbors to the north and south as well as other powers to the west,

Looking Westward, implementation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and potential pressure on the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) as well as the State Partnership Program (SPP) cannot be ruled out, which will be Oli government’s foremost foreign policy challenges. Meanwhile, the US is on the verge of a presidential election, which might bring dramatic results by shocking not only America but also the entire world. The US election of 2024 is probably going to be a whimsical one, especially with President Joe Biden pulling out and Vice-president Kamala Harris entering the presidential race. Since a failed assassination attempt a few weeks ago, former president Donald Trump has received tremendous sympathy and support—both political and moral—within the Republican Party and outside of it. Since then, Trump has grown braver, stronger and calmer, all of which may help him win the election. Yet, a large section of Americans are worried whether the US would be winning. Nevertheless, Harris’s endorsement has indeed traumatized Trump and his team, as she is considered a strong contender for presidency. Thus far, America has largely suffered from identity and racial politics since its establishment. So, the likelihood that the American people will elect a president of ‘race’ and ‘color’ is minimal, regardless of one's attributes, appeal, strengths, exposure, or charisma. The presidential race is not likely to be so easy for both of them.

Nevertheless, if Harris wins the US presidential election, she is most likely to continue Biden’s foreign policy, including the IPS and Taiwan and Tibet policies. She is also likely to follow the path of confronting China, which will largely affect not only South Asia, but the entire world. 

Her administration will surely support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. This means the international war, uncertainty, and chaos will continue, marked by growing US-China rivalry, while Russia will remain the biggest enemy of the West, including the US, EU, and NATO. 

At the same time, chances of growing India-Russia proximity affecting India-West relations are higher, which will have a significant bearing in South Asia and beyond. In addition, the risks that Taiwan issues will be heated up cannot be ruled out, which will directly affect Nepal in all aspects—security, economy, politics and diplomacy. While Nepal has already suffered from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars directly and indirectly, as a significant number of Nepalis  have lost their lives in the Russia-Ukraine war and in Palestinian captivity, Nepal will suffer much more from the Taiwan occupation and corresponding consequences.

Alternatively, should Trump win the US presidential election, the country’s foreign policy will change, affecting not only its friends and allies but also every nation on the planet, including its most formidable adversaries, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In any case, regardless of the winner—Harris or Trump—the US remains in a position where a major shift in its foreign policy will have a substantial impact on the rest of the world, including Nepal and its immediate neighbors.

Nepal’s foreign policy should therefore be utterly sensible, rational, and pragmatic, rather than being influenced by fear-psychoses, imperceptible hypotheses, or submissive philosophy, given the country’s sensitive geo-location and the ongoing competition between global and regional powers in South Asia, especially in Nepal. Thus, it is necessary to pragmatize the conventional approach to foreign policy making in light of realism, facts, data, information, history, intelligence and changing dynamics in techno-geopolitics and international relations. So, it is necessary to establish a robust and all-encompassing intelligence unit at the Prime Minister’s Office, which could supervise various sub-units such as the desks for the US, China, India, and the EU, with foreign policy experts employed to maintain the respective desks and offer the Prime Minister real-time advice and information as well as practical recommendations based on dynamism in international political and diplomatic spheres.

Oli, however, has largely suffered from some problems of “makeover leadership”, such as high vision, big dreams and patronizing expectations. He needs to be more pragmatic and patriotic than nationalistic at the moment, yet the nationalistic agenda can be emphasized based on national consensus. Also, he needs to take every criticism as an input for his mission on nation-building. Oli is said to be an idealist and is believed to be capable enough to inspire the nation, stimulate the citizens, and envision several steps ahead of contemporary Nepali leaders. Subsequently, Oli should be able to take the major political parties into confidence to develop a consensus on significant domestic and foreign policy issues, while democratic governance and political stability need to be at the core of the efforts.

That being said, the Oli government ought to strive not only for economic and political stability but also for the establishment of a prosperous nation, the preservation of Nepal’s territorial sovereignty, and the affirmation of its sovereign dignity. Meanwhile, Oli must once again demonstrate that he is a nationally acclaimed ‘true patriot’ leading the country with a strong sense of economic patriotism, spirited leadership and rational intelligence. He needs to show his distinct charisma to cement friendly relations with foreign leaders through ‘personal diplomacy’, while personal diplomacy can play a significant role in solidifying Nepal’s relations with other nations even when bilateral relations go low. As a patriot, PM Oli must exhibit his valiant persona and immense sense of patriotic morality to stand tall, neck-to-neck and shoulder-to-shoulder with leaders of neighboring and other powers such that he could gear up the momentum of diplomatic and foreign relations to safeguard national interests.

Considering the implications of international political, diplomatic, and security intelligence, the government must view intelligence through a wider lens, examining it from military (or security) intelligence to political intelligence to diplomatic intelligence to emotional intelligence (of the leaders and diplomats). Political and intelligence culture can help understand foreign policy and military and security affairs in depth. The powerful countries frequently practice astute intelligence and counterintelligence, while some of them also regularly push political and diplomatic propaganda to influence countries like Nepal. Where are the diplomatic intelligence systems in Nepal? Can foreign policy succeed without any significant intelligence mechanisms?

Nepal should rationally invest in intelligence, especially political and diplomatic intelligence such that it could rationally enhance diplomatic engagement with its friends and strategic partners. The National Security Council and National Investigation Department (NID) need to be strengthened with regards to expertise, resources and responsibilities. Diplomatic intelligence, a pragmatic approach in contemporary diplomacy, needs to be potently exercised so that there won’t remain ample ground for diplomatic mishaps. When it comes to foreign policy and diplomacy, a careful calibration of words matters. Most significantly, emotional intelligence—the capacity to identify, comprehend and control one's own emotions as well as understand, identify, and influence the emotions of others during bilateral negotiations—is highly prized in diplomacy and diplomatic relations.

Even with all of these persistent challenges on both domestic and foreign fronts, PM Oli cannot bring about a radical change in the nation on his own. A comprehensive ‘political culture’ is necessary to pledge domestic political stability, envision perpetual democratic governance and advance national interest, while a strong “intelligence culture” is necessary to safeguard territorial sovereignty and national security. Essentially, these goals can only be achieved through broader national consensus among major political parties as well as the cohesive will of the people, society, intelligentsias, constitutional stakeholders and the nation.

The author is a techno-geopolitical analyst/geo-strategic thinker. Views are personal

I used to focus on tech as a business, but I realized there is a higher calling. It is why I shifted to directing the Dharma Farm, an institution that seeks to preserve culture through education in linguistics, history, and environment. Nepal is blessed with an extraordinary array of cultures, cultures exquisitely worthy of saving. Yet, so many of its inhabitants want to leave.

Commonly referred to as “brain drain,” the concept denotes the departure of a society’s highest educated or most skillful members to other places in search of opportunity. For Nepal, it is a critical problem. In 2022, the government issued certificates allowing as many as 165,000 students to go abroad for education. That represented a rough doubling of the number the year before. Added to that were somewhere around 800,000 Nepalis people who left for employment. These numbers continue to rise year-on-year. According to The Kathmandu Post, “only a handful” of students return upon graduating from foreign universities.

This indicates a core part of the problem. Having spent a great deal of time in Nepal among students, a common theme emerged, one not exclusive to Nepali youth, but especially troublesome nonetheless. Many authors and policy analysts have proposed a number of strategies to mitigate the brain drain problem, most of which have merit and demand serious consideration and implementation. They have suggested ideas such as improving the education system, focusing on economic innovation, and promoting good governance. One resolution strategy, however, has received relatively scant attention. It is this point that I hear youth ignore more than any other, but it is the single most effective answer to the problem.  

In the American business world, we often employ the phrase “pass the buck.” The phrase connotes the shifting of blame for a problem or the responsibility to solve it. After hundreds, if not thousands, of conversations with Nepali youth, passing the buck is the tacit response for how to improve the situation in Nepal. For them, the issues that drive them from their homeland belong to someone else to solve. Heading overseas represents an easier solution to enhancing their own circumstances than tackling the underlying causes for why they leave in the first place.

To justify this reasoning, they will point to obstacles that appear beyond their individual ability to surmount. Indeed, systemic problems do exceed the capabilities of nearly all individuals to fix them. Ignoring them, however, does nothing to diminish any specific obstacle, let alone a system-wide deficiency. As the saying goes, “Rome wasn’t built in a day,” neither was it built by any one man or woman. So it goes for Nepal.

Over my career, I taught problem-solving strategies in a wide variety of fields. Firefighting, policing, technology, and translation all raise serious challenges that can be quite daunting at first glance. My method always began with reductionism. Any task, no matter its complexity, is eminently less burdensome if broken into its component parts. Whether the duty at hand involves solving a computational bug in a piece of software or battling a forest fire, compartmentalizing the obligations to fulfill, and then completing them one-by-one guarantees a far higher chance of success at resolving the overall dilemma than attempting to undertake the entire thing at once.

There is no question that turning Nepal into a bastion of opportunity will be hard. Leaving the litany of matters in need of attention to someone else is far easier than staying behind and working to address them. Facing the challenge will require numerous sacrifices and an abundance of energy and creativity. But, consider this. If the youth does not do it, who will? They cannot expect their parents, the government, or some nebulous “other” to manage things for them. Despite the good intentions any of them may have, they are simply unequipped to go it alone.

If the youth insist on leaving, then little will change. Nepalese remaining behind will continue to struggle to eke out a living in increasingly empty cities and villages. The beautiful plains of the Tarai and the majestic mountains of the Himalayas will lose the cultures that supplement their magnificence, opening the door for exploitation by outsiders who recognize only their materialistic value. Meanwhile, Nepali youth will move to new lands in pursuit of capitalistic opportunity. In the places in which they settle, however, they will never truly feel at home. At best, their cultural uniqueness will simply blend with countless others, diluting into an austere version of its once splendid self. At worst, it will serve as a constant reminder of its foreignness in this new land they now blandly call “home.” And all the while, the very home they left will slowly cease to exist as they knew it.

I am not writing these words to criticize anyone. Rather, I come from a country whose cultural landscape consists of a vast mix of them, but with little identity of its own. Having been immersed in both mine and Nepal’s, I am unafraid to state that allowing Nepal’s cultural liveliness to degrade into a mere shell of itself would be a tragedy of epic scale. Moreover, once such a catastrophic result is reached, there is no going back. Frittering away such a jewel out of fear of or indifference toward facing problems will summon a specter of regret that will haunt innumerable generations to come.

For the young folks reading this: what I have described is not the inevitable future of Nepal, if you do not want it to be. If that is indeed the case, then the brain drain needs to be plugged. The brilliance I have observed among so many of you needs to be turned inward, to focus on conquering challenges, one small step at a time. It won’t be easy. But your family, children, and country will forever thank you for it. The answers lie within.

The movie ‘Gaun Ayeko Bato’ brought back a flurry of past memories. I remembered the song “Gaun Gaun Bata Utha, Basti Basti Bata Utha…” a revolutionary song sung by Jhapalis during the 1970s when they were fighting against the monarchy. Today we are done with monarchy but our Gaun (villages) are getting empty with no one to sing the song “Gaun Gaun Bata Utha…”!

The movie also reminded me of ‘Shahid Marg (91 km)’, which was built by the Maoists during the People’s War (PW)when I was working there. When I became Minister for Physical Planning and Works (2007) after the PW, I allotted a budget for that road. In the movie, I had seen how building a motorable road had affected the Rai culture and economy adversely. I worry if the Shahid Marg (metaled now) has adversely affected the Magars’ way of life?

Being a Janjati architect, I am aware how careless development can jeopardize indigenous way of life affecting their ‘Gaas Bas Kapas’. I am not against development but it should be inclusive development. 

During PW, some efforts to integrate development with indigenous ways of life were practiced in Thawang village. Magars in Rolpa eat pork heavily, salad was introduced to digest and prevent constipation. Within their homes, they used to raise pigs by feeding human feces directly. The Maoists made the villagers separate pig breeding from their homes. Earlier, the villagers used to sell hemp, the Maoists helped them make rucksacks, which was much in demand during PW.

In the movie, one can see the local brewery being replaced by ‘coca cola culture’, the indigenous rooftop by synthetic building material and indigenous underwear being replaced by flashy synthetic lingerie.

I had seen how the Karnali region was left out of development during the monarchy era. On the positive side of development, I am also aware how that region, after the country became a republic and federal, is now flourishing as a separate province, getting basic amenities such as hospitals, university and road networks. It is also welcoming to see Marshi rice, Kodo (millet), honey and Sishnu from Karnali finding a market in Kathmandu’s malls. Seeing how fast indigenous ‘Gaas Bas Kapas’ was being replaced by consumerism, I am quite worried. What will happen to Karnali if the government does not protect their products?

Coincidentally, 2/3 days after seeing the movie, I got to see a photo exhibition by Rastriya Samachar Samiti on the occasion of the Republic Day displaying major infrastructure development works throughout the country. The first thing that struck me was the economic viability of these projects, secondly the participation and ownership of the projects by the local people and thirdly, whether these works will benefit the local people. If these factors were not considered while undertaking these works, I fear Indian goods will flood our villages. Remember, we share almost two-third of our border with India, a market that is nearly 80 times bigger than Nepal.

The photo exhibition reminded me of my 30-day trip from Chiwa Bhanjyang (Ilam district) adjoining Sikkim, India to Jhulaghat, Baitadi district bordering Uttaranchal, India from Jan 29 to Feb 27 in 2019, covering 28 districts along the Pushpalal Marg, a mid-hill highway. The salient feature of this road was that it covered all the Janjati and Khas communities of the country. 

The road is so strategic that, had the government given it first priority before the construction of Mahendra Rajmarg, migration from hills to Tarai would have been checked. After seeing the movie, I became acutely curious during my recent 10 day trip from Ilam to Kanchanpur (27 June-7 July 2024), covering 18 districts.

While traveling I saw almost no economic activities throughout the highway except seeing children waiting for their school buses to reach private schools in the mornings and evenings. It reminded me how remittance has accelerated the flow of population from villages to small towns, cities near highways. How have private English boarding schools flourished in these cities? I remembered in the movie, ‘Papa’ being called again and again by the little son and how proud the father felt hearing English words from his son!

Lastly, I must say, I was lucky to come back safely to Kathmandu, after 10 days of harrowing trip. I saw trails of destruction of roads, houses and paddy fields due to flooding and landslides killing people, animals and destroying goods while returning. At one point, we got stuck in the middle of the road when we found a huge landslide blocking the road ahead and flooding the road behind us. We had to backtrack on the road after the rain stopped. Once again I was reminded how in Thawang reforestation was taken up and check dams were built to save the village from surrounding rivers during PW.

Unfortunately, the same Maoist force, which has been in the government for the last nine years, has hardly been effective in implementing sustainable development works, instead they have been busy running after power. 

The author is a politician and architect. Views are personal

The student movement against the 30 percent quota in government jobs for descendants of the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war veterans not only led to the loss of power for Sheikh Hasina, who had stayed in power for 15 consecutive years, but also forced her to flee the country. In an interview with the media, her son suggested that Hasina is unlikely to return to active politics.

Hasina is currently in New Delhi. For Hasina and New Delhi, this is not a new atmosphere, though. During her exile, Hasina had once lived in the Indian capital for six years. The streets of India and the cordial relationship with Indian power centers are not new to her.

India and Bangladesh enjoy the best bilateral relationship in the region—not just between governments, but also between heads of state. It was not long ago that a dispute along nearly 4,000 kilometers of the border area was resolved on the basis of this relationship. Even now, Indian media outlets report that citizens from both countries in border areas freely cross over and indulge in farm work daily. It is, therefore, natural for India to be concerned about and interested in the security sensitivity with Bangladesh. India is reportedly quite sensitive about the political change in Bangladesh. It may not be as easy for India to cooperate with the new government as it was with Hasina’s leadership.

If news reports are anything to go by, India is apprehensive that China might dominate regional geopolitics. Bangladesh has been facing economic difficulties recently. In July, during Hasina’s visit to China, Bangladesh had requested $5bn in loan assistance from China. However, no agreement was reached after China expressed willingness to provide only $1bn. This issue reportedly ended after the foreign ministry of Bangladesh stated that an agreement for $5bn was anticipated, but China only expressed intent to give $1bn.

According to Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary, who also served as Indian envoy to Bangladesh, the economic situation of Bangladesh has weakened since Covid-19. The unemployment rate in Bangladesh has increased and people are finding it difficult to make ends meet. All this had been creating an atmosphere of anger among the younger generation. Amidst this came the government decision of providing a 30 percent reservation in government jobs. The youngsters took to the streets against the decision. This took a violent turn.

Some argue that regional politics infiltrated the protest. This is because the Supreme Court had already annulled the quota system, and the student movement had subsided. But within a few days, the movement suddenly got stronger and protesters started demanding Hasina’s resignation.

Shringla argues that the protests took a violent turn after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and extremists like Jamaat-e-Islami, who were waiting for an opportunity, entered the student movement.

The Sonadia Island seaport near Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is said to have strategic significance for India and China. Some argue that the interests of the two regional powerhouses were seen in the project to keep Bangladesh within their sphere of influence and ensure their regional dominance. 

Bangladesh’s relationship with India appears to be more political and strategic than economic, while with China, it is purely economic. Until 2023, China has invested more than $3bn in Bangladesh. China has helped Bangladesh build seven railway lines, 12 highways, 21 bridges and 31 power stations. However, international media outlets have been analyzing that Hasina’s China visit in July didn’t go as Bangladesh had hoped, from the economic perspective. But immediately after that, both India and Bangladesh had responded that Hasina’s state visit to India was quite successful. 

Both India and China have shown interest in the Teesta river project of Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Hassan Mahmud had made it clear that priority would be given to India’s proposal.

The downfall of pro-India forces in Bangladesh is also seen as a weakness of the Indian government in regional politics. In a discussion on the Indian online media outlet Lallantop, participants argued that the power shift in Bangladesh has weakened India’s influence in the region. They argue that the world powers are aware of the ups and downs in the relationship between Nepal and India since 2015 with exit of Pushpa Kamal Dahal and the rise of Oli, President Muizzu’s stance in the Maldives and India’s withdrawal of military personnel, the end of the Rajapaksa era in Sri Lanka, the end of democratic rule in Myanmar followed by the rise of military rule and China’s silence, the dominance of the Taliban in Afghanistan and China’s support for the Taliban, the relationship between Pakistan and India and the equidistance with the US and Russia that India has been trying to maintain after the Ukraine war. But they may not do anything to immediately provoke India because of the lucrative regional market and the trust in the government led by Narendra Modi.

Discussions have started in India about Hasina’s ouster, particularly regarding the future bilateral relationship. Shashi Tharoor, a leader of the Indian Congress and a member of the Lok Sabha, says: India needs to be alert about possible refugee infiltration from Bangladesh. 

He adds that India will not stand on the side of an unstable and unfriendly neighbor and that it stands and will stand with the citizens of Bangladesh. But India must remain vigilant about India’s security issues, Tharoor says.

India not only has a large investment in Bangladesh but it also provides economic assistance. It knows bad relations could impact India’s investments worth billions of rupees in Bangladesh. Another issue is how China’s relation will be with the new government in Bangladesh. This is because China is the second largest partner of Bangladesh after India. Bangladesh will have to listen to China as much as Hasina listened to India because bilateral relationships are determined by economic activities these days.    

Bangladesh’s regional relations could be different once the new government is formed. This is because Hasina had banned the main opposition party from contesting in the last two elections. After Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh’s President Mohammed Shahabuddin has ordered the release of former Prime Minister and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia. If she leads the government, her policy might be different from Hasina’s. This is because India had remained silent when the western nations raised concerns about the legitimacy of the recent election and the decision to keep Zia in jail. This has created an anti-India atmosphere at the citizen level. At the same time, Bangladesh needs economic assistance. Analyses are also being made that Bangladesh will be forced to silently support that nation that announces economic assistance to it.

Zia became Bangladesh’s first female Prime Minister in 1991 after her husband’s assassination. She is a fierce critic of Hasina. She became Prime Minister for the second time from 2001 to 2006. But in Jan 2007, when elections could not be held due to political violence, the military intervened in Bangladesh and formed an interim government. The interim government sent Khaleda Zia and her two sons to jail on corruption charges. Hasina adopted an even tougher policy toward Zia and her family.

When Zia’s party BNP was in power, India used to be apprehensive about security issues. But Hasina used to address India’s security concerns. It remains to be seen whether the new government will follow India’s security concerns according to the needs of the power blocs or emphasize continuity. It is necessary for not only Bangladesh but also other nations in the region to be aware because when elephants fight it is the grass that suffers.