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Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, continues to enjoy significant support among young voters, though his popularity has shown signs of decline following the GenZ protests. Critics argue that his inability to respond effectively to incidents of vandalism and arson during the Sept 8–9 protests dented his image as a mayor.

As a result, it remains uncertain whether Shah commands the same level of public support he did during the 2022 local elections. Despite this uncertainty, Shah remains a key political figure among emerging and alternative political forces, at least in perception.

Several newly-formed parties appear eager to secure his backing ahead of upcoming elections. A few weeks ago, Kulman Ghising, who recently launched the Ujyalo Nepal Party, met Shah seeking his support whereas on Dec 22, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane held discussions with Shah, fueling speculation about possible political collaboration.

Balen has given a clear signal that he supports emerging political forces challenging traditional parties, but it remains uncertain whether he will publicly endorse or align himself with any of them. So far, his message suggests support for new political parties but it is unclear whether he would engage in active politics like Rabi. 

To unite emerging political forces, Balen has initiated consultations with political leaders, Gen Z representatives, artists, media professionals, and members of civil society. Over the past few years, he has remained in continuous dialogue with people from all walks of life.

A case in point: After the GenZ protests, the Nepali Army reportedly offered him the premiership, but he declined it.

Although it is unclear whether these new political forces will unite, there is a growing sentiment among them that electoral cooperation is essential to challenge the dominance of traditional parties—namely the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

This view has also come from several self-proclaimed GenZ leaders, who are pressing alternative political groups to form a united front. Among the new parties, the Rabi Lamichhane-led Rastriya Swatantra Party remains the most influential.

Emerging as the fourth-largest party in the House of Representatives in the 2022 elections, the RSP disrupted Nepal’s conventional political landscape.

Although the party faced internal setbacks after the GenZ movement, including the departure of some key leaders, it partially recovered through unification with the Bibeksheel Party.

After his recent release from jail, Lamichhane has intensified political consultations. He met Prime Minister Sushila Karki to pledge the RSP’s support to the government.

However, his meeting with Mayor Shah attracted wider attention and triggered renewed debate over the possible consolidation of new political forces ahead of the March 5 elections. Such an alliance, if it materializes, could pose a serious challenge to Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

Despite facing multiple charges related to cooperative fraud, Lamichhane continues to enjoy personal popularity. A strong communicator, he has a distinct ability to dominate headlines and connect directly with the public. He is skilled in the art of communication as he can share his ideas, feelings and information clearly and effectively, while also listening to and responding to his supporters.

Unlike leaders of traditional parties, Lamichhane’s appeal is largely personality-driven rather than party-based. Many supporters voted for him as an individual rather than for the RSP as a political party. Therefore, whether the RSP can sustain its growth in Lamichhane’s absence is a moot question.
In contrast, Balen does not directly communicate with the masses.

Since becoming the mayor of Kathmandu, he has rarely engaged with the public or faced the media. Instead, he often uses social media platforms to vent his anger and criticize mainstream political parties. Like Lamichhane, Balen also stokes anti–mainstream party sentiment. At the same time, he has not shown any clear ideological inclination.

But Lamichhane and Balen both are non-ideological.  Their stance on key constitutional issues—including federalism and full commitment to the 2015 Constitution—remains ambiguous. Notably, during last year’s pro-monarchy protests, the RSP maintained silence. 
Nevertheless, Lamichhane avoids conventional political jargon and focuses instead on governance failures and everyday problems facing the people—a strategy that resonates with frustrated voters. Lamichhane was widely popular until two years ago; however, allegations related to cooperative fraud have affected his public standing.

This populist appeal gives Lamichhane the potential to draw voters away from the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, particularly in urban constituencies. If the RSP, the Ujyalo Nepal Party, Balendra Shah and other alternative forces form an electoral alliance, it could significantly erode the traditional voter base of mainstream parties, at least in urban areas.

However, these new political forces face structural limitations. Their organizational presence in rural areas remains weak, and they lack strong networks in the Tarai region. While they managed notable urban victories in 2022 despite a limited organization base, sustaining and expanding such success will be more challenging without strong grassroots foundations.

Since the 2022 elections, the RSP has expanded its organizational reach, but its rural penetration remains limited. Still, rising anti-establishment sentiment and public frustration with traditional parties may push alternative forces toward unity.

If these parties manage to coordinate effectively, they could emerge as a serious electoral threat—if not by winning outright, then by decisively weakening the dominance of Nepal’s long-established political parties.

Leaders argue that if there is an electoral alliance among the new political forces, with open backing from figures like Balen, it could force the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML into an electoral alliance of their own.

The two key developments—Rabi Lamichhane’s release from jail and his meeting with Shah—have alarmed mainstream political parties. At the same time, major political parties are holding regular meetings to chart their strategies.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) led by Rajendra Lingden and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal led by Kamal Thapa have unified their parties.

Lingden and Thapa signed a unification agreement on Wednesday. 

The two parties have agreed to organize a unification declaration program next week. The RPP had 14 seats in the dissolved House of Representatives, while the Thapa-led party did not have a single seat.

Both sides have not disclosed details about the structure or leadership of the new party. They signed a brief agreement stating their mutual commitment to party unification. Both are known as royalist parties. 

A new report released by U.S Department of Defense has said that U.S seeks to deny the ability of any country in the Indo-Pacific to dominate US and its allies. 

The new report titled Annual report to Congress: Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China says that U.S intends to open a wider range of military-to-military communication with the PLA with a focus on strategic stability as well as deconfliction and escalation, more broadly. We will also seek other ways to make clear our peaceful intentions. 

At the same time, we will ensure that the Joint Force is always ready and able to defend our nation’s interests in the Indo-Pacific, the document says. 

 As we do so, it bears emphasizing that U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific are fundamental—but also scoped and reasonable. We do not seek to strangle, dominate, or humiliate China, according to the document. 

Rather, as laid out in President Trump’s National Security Strategy, we seek only to deny the ability of any country in the Indo-Pacific to dominate us or our allies, the document reads. 

That means being so strong that aggression is not even considered, and that peace is therefore preferred and preserved. 

The document says: “The Department of War will therefore prioritize bolstering deterrence in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation. President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade, and respectful relations with China, and the Department of War will ensure that he is able to achieve these objectives from a position of military strength.” 

 In the process, we will forge and sustain a balance of power that will enable all of us to enjoy a decent peace in an Indo-Pacific—one in which trade flows openly and fairly, we can all prosper, and all nations’ interests are respected.

The document says that China has likely also considered basing Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari has said that necessary preparations have already begun for conducting the House of Representatives elections on March 5. 

“It is now irrelevant to argue whether the elections will be held or not,” he said.

Addressing the concluding session of a two-day orientation organized by the Election Commission (EC) for political parties on submitting closed lists of candidates under the proportional representation (PR) system, he added, “Holding the elections is an obligation in the present situation.”

He emphasized that political issues related to the elections will be resolved politically, and the EC will uphold matters addressed through political and legal means. 

According to the Acting Chief Election Commissioner, the elections are also essential for the regularization of the Constitution. He urged political parties to select capable candidates and contribute to establishing good governance.

Bhandari also called on political parties to consider caste, language, class, and geography while submitting closed lists for the PR system. 

He urged them to avoid politics of prohibition and to help create an environment conducive to the election. He further reminded parties of the importance of complying with the election code of conduct.

“No one is expected to create obstacles for the elections,” he said, encouraging parties to engage with voters politely. “The Election Commission’s role is to act as a referee during the elections; the players are the political parties,” he added, reminding them of their responsibility to ensure a successful election.

The orientation was attended by EC Commissioners Dr Janaki Kumari Tuladhar and Sagun Shumsher JB Rana, Secretary Krishna Bahadur Raut, Spokesperson Narayan Prasad Bhattarai, and two representatives from each of the 93 political parties that applied to take part in the PR election.

With President Ram Chandra  Paudel, on the recommendation of the Council of Ministers, issuing the House of Representatives Member Election (First Amendment) Ordinance, 2082, political parties are now required to submit closed lists under the PR system based on the population percentages of Dalits, Indigenous Nationalities, Khas Arya, Madhesi, Tharu, and Muslims according to the 2078 census report. The lists must be inclusive.

The closed lists are to be submitted to the EC between 10 am and 4 pm on December 28-29. 

Spokesperson Bhattarai confirmed that the EC is fully prepared for this process.