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Nepal has intensified diplomatic efforts with Russia to address the key concerns surrounding Nepali youths joining the Russian army. Speaking with ApEx, Foreign Minister NP Saud said the number of Nepali youths in the Russian army could be higher than the government estimates. 

“The number of casualties and missing could also be higher,” said Saud. Given the situation in Russia, the minister said that the government has taken a series of measures to stop Nepalis traveling to Russia as well as Ukraine through various transit countries. 

Russia has been enlisting Nepali men in its army and sending them to fight the war with Ukraine without the knowledge of Nepal. The presence of Nepalis in the Russian army was made known by the enlistees through their social media posts.

The government view is that the Kremlin should have stopped Nepalis from joining the Russian Army in the first place. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal said recently that approximately 200 Nepalis were serving in the Russian army, but other independent observers who have returned from the country say the number could be much higher. Till date, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed the death of six Nepalis. 

Nepal Police recently busted a gang involved in the smuggling of people to Russia, leading to the suspicion that many Nepali youths are currently serving in the Russian army. Minister Saud said the Nepal government will ask Russia to ascertain the number of Nepalis in its army, as well as the number of dead, injured and prisoners of war.

“We are in the process of taking up these issues with the concerned authorities,” he told ApEx.

In recent weeks, there have been increasing reports about the death and hostage taking of Nepalis serving in the Russian army. Videos of some Nepali hostages asking for help have also been released.  

As Nepal and Russia enjoy a cordial relationship and both countries have their residential embassies in each other’s capital, Nepal may not need support of a third country to repatriate its citizens.

 Even in the war-time, Nepali politicians have been visiting Russia. Prime Minister Dahal recently expressed his wish to visit Moscow and to host Russian President Vladamir Putin in Kathmandu.

In April, Chairman of National Assembly Ganesh Prasad Timalsina had also visited Russia. Soon after his visit, Russia handed over a paper to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs identifying the areas that Russia wants to engage with Nepal. There have been other high-level exchanges between the two countries as well.  According to some observers, as the two countries have been in constant communication and hosting each other’s delegations, nothing should stop them from talking about the Nepalis joining the Russian army.

Besides issuing a press statement on December 4, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not said anything about the death, injury or captivity of Nepali youths in the Russia-Ukraine war.On December 7, the National Human Rights Commission urged the government to rescue the Nepalis from Russia and Ukraine. But the response from the government agencies, including the Nepali Embassy in Moscow, has remained slow.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin too seems reluctant to address the issue. In response to BBC Nepali Service’s question, Putin’s office recently said that it was unaware about the recruitment of Nepalis in the Russian army.  “Foreign nationals cannot serve in the Russian army,” BBC quoted a senior Russian official as saying. With Russia clearly unwilling to engage, observers say the government should not hesitate to dispatch a high-level team to Moscow to investigate and resolve the matter.

The CPN-UML has completed its 18-day long roadshow (Sankalpa Yatra) along the Mid-hill districts, which saw an active participation from its chairman, KP Sharma Oli. Starting from Jhulaghat in Baitadi district of far-western Nepal and culminating at Chiwa Bhanjyang of Panchthar district in the east, this journey weaved through 26 districts.

Over 200 central-level leaders and a sea of passionate cadres flooded the campaign trail. Oli formally ended the campaign by hoisting the national flag at Chiwa Bhanjyang—a settlement along the Nepal-India border and the eastern gateway of the Mid-Hill Highway.

On the occasion, Oli rallied the party faithful, urging them to gear up for a simple majority triumph in the 2027 elections. With the party positioned as the second-largest and best by numerous challenges, the stakes are high. “The Mid-Hill Highway will be the mainstay for the development of the mid-hill region of Nepal. We can develop Chiwa Bhanjyang as a transit point with India to gain financial benefits,” Oli declared. 

He said the main objectives of the campaign were to transform people’s pessimism into optimism, to identify the developmental gaps in the mid-hill region, to develop a national vision, and to discourage anti-constitutional forces. The UML organized the campaign at a time when people’s frustration against the major political parties is at an all-time high and anti-constitution forces are intensifying their protests in the street.

Post last year’s national elections, the UML is the only party to launch a series of strategic campaigns to boost its organizational structure. Amid resistance from pro-identity activists, who staged strikes attempting to disrupt the campaign, the UML pressed on undeterred. Even in the face of sporadic incidents, the party proudly claims the campaign as a resounding success. Since 2008, identity-based federal structure advocates have painted UML as their adversary, a legacy rooted in the party's opposition to name the provinces based on ethnicity during the constitution drafting process. The party had taken the same position during the naming of the erstwhile Province 1. In Panchthar, obstacles were strategically placed on the road by pro-identity activists, yet these impediments failed to halt the UML’s march.

After last year’s national election, the UML has been on an organizational revitalization spree, with initiatives like the Mission Grassroots, which was aimed at addressing internal issues and wooing the youth. During the latest campaign, Oli informed the public about the party’s vision and criticized the misdeeds of the Dahal-led government.

But the UML itself faces internal strife and discontent, a challenge mirrored across major political entities in Nepal. As new political forces emerge and public frustration with established parties mounts, the UML sees the Sankalpa Yatra as a chance to intimately connect with the nation and resolve its internal quandaries. Party leaders emphasize that a comprehensive review of the campaign will guide future endeavors, signaling a commitment to adapt and evolve. The UML is preparing to fight the 2027 elections without forming any alliances.

While many have dubbed the latest UML campaign “Mission 2084,” the Nepali year when national elections will take place, Oli time and again has said that the party has to be ready for the midterm elections. 

Among the major parties, the UML has the most strong and robust organizational structure at the local level. But this strength is weakening due to internal disputes and dissatisfaction. The emergence of new political forces and growing frustration against the major political parties among the masses is a wake up call for all major parties, not just the UML. 

Leader Prithvi Subba Gurung underscores the campaign’s role in reinvigorating party leaders and cadres alike. The emergence of fresh political dynamics and the growing discontent with the political establishment pose formidable challenges for parties that have dominated the national political arena since the 1990s. 

Another leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta says the campaign provided an opportunity for the leaders to see the plights of people residing in the Mid-Hill region and rebuild trust. 

As the dust settles on this grand roadshow, only time will tell whether the UML’s campaign has succeeded in sustaining the people’s trust.

The Nepali Congress has become a visionless and missionless political party. Ask the ordinary party cadres about the party’s future and they will tell you there isn’t one.

This past week I interacted with several NC cadres and the key takeaway from these exchanges was that they no longer feel confident regarding the party’s future.

Frustration and hopelessness consume the party cadres these days and they put the blame squarely on the top leadership. They say the leaders on top have failed to rouse the party out from the status quo. Many local-level cadres are deserting to other parties, because they no longer believe that the NC can lead the country. 

Yes, there are those who take comfort in the knowledge that the Congress is still the largest party and that its president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, is poised to become the next prime minister. But most of them are affiliated to the Deuba camp and consider the party leadership to be above and beyond reproach.

The harsh reality is that the NC is losing its supporters left, right and center. The problems that the party faces today run from the center to the grassroots. The fact that the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government, in which the Congress serves as a key coalition partner, has been unable to revive the faltering economy and improve governance has only deepened the discontent among party cadres. 

There are strong voices inside the NC that the party should pull out its support to the Dahal government and forge a coalition with the CPN-UML, the main opposition. The UML has hinted that it could support Deuba as a prime minister if the NC leaves the current coalition. But even if this scenario comes to pass, it will only guarantee Congress’s leadership of government for the next four years. It will neither resolve the party’s organizational dysfunction, nor heal the factional rift. 
 

While the second-rung leaders of the NC and UML are said to be discussing a possible alliance between the two parties, there hasn’t been any substantial talks between Deuba and KP Sharma Oli, the UML chairman. 

At the same time, there are alternative views inside the NC that continuing the current alliance with Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) will serve the party's interests in the long-run. Leaders who subscribe to this view believe that the party cannot retain its current position without electoral alliance with the Maoist in the next election. Their outlook goes against those who strongly believe that the Congress party should contest the next election as a single party. 

Leaders who think that the NC should solely fight the next election include the general secretary duo, Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Shara, and senior leader, Shekhar Koirala. 

A senior Congress leader who spoke with ApEx on condition of anonymity said: “Some of our friends are talking about contesting the next election as a single party, but the reality is completely different. Without an electoral alliance, the NC has no chance of winning.” 

If the NC were to enter the fray, there is a chance that the Maoist could ally with the UML—something that had occurred during the 2017 polls, which resulted in an unprecedented electoral drubbing for the NC.  

The Congress leader said that the 2023 by-election outcome in which the party lost in its historic stronghold is a warning sign for those leaders who are advocating for the party to contest the next election alone.  

Nevertheless, the proponents of the idea are trying to endorse the proposal from the party's Mahasamiti meeting. NC President Deuba, however, is dead set against endorsing such a proposal, as it could rattle the current coalition. Dahal could break the alliance with the NC, blowing Deuba’s chances of becoming prime minister. 

Following the 2022 general elections, in which the NC, Maoists and some fringe parties had contested as allies against the UML, the NC emerged as the largest national party. However, the Maoists did not do so well, polling in third after the UML with a big gap between them. And when Deuba refused to hand over the post of prime minister to Dahal as per their pre-election agreement, the latter had joined hands with the UML, leaving the NC desperate. 

The Maoist-UML coalition, however, did not last long as a result of power struggle between Dahal and Oli. The Congress eventually got back with the Maoists, offering Dahal the premiership for two years of the full five-year term and securing the post of president for the party. 

Deuba has no intention to irritate the Maoists and lose his chance of becoming the prime minister. Some leaders say Deuba’s blind ambition to occupy the executive’s chair while ignoring the pressing task of strengthening the party organization and support base is eating away at the NC’s reputation.  

Even a year after the general elections, the party's activities are almost zero. NC ministers in the Dahal-led government have not just failed to deliver, they have made a string of controversial decisions. Factional disputes have divided the party from the leadership to rank and file. On several national issues, the party has not made its official position known.

One of the serious blows to the party's reputation was the arrest of its senior leader and former home minister, Bal Krishna Khand, in a corruption case. There is an environment of fear within the party. Many party leaders do not dare criticize the Dahal-led government, because they fear they could be indicted in past corruption cases.

Top leaders' popularity graph, including that of youth leaders Thapa and Sharma, is at a historic low. For a long time, there have been calls from the NC cadres to the central leadership to reform the party, but there is a lack of unity among top leaders. The rivalry between Thapa and Koirala, two influential leaders after Deuba, is increasing, as both are eyeing for the post of party president.

“The Nepali Congress appears visionless, missionless and rudderless at the moment,” said Nainsingh Mahar, NC’s Central Working Committee member. 

Talks about holding a meeting of the party’s Mahasamiti, a high policy-making body, have not made any progress. Thapa and Sharma blame Deuba for repeatedly  postponing the crucial gathering. The Deuba faction, on the other hand, say that Thapa and Sharma, as general secretaries, have failed to make the necessary preparations for the meeting. 

“It is high time that the top leaders got their act together and came up with a clear vision for the party’s future,” said Mahar.  

It is a big task when ambition and rivalry run amok in the grand old party.

When a powerful 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck Jajarkot and Rukum West on November 3, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal rushed to the impacted zones, armed with food and medicines. Dahal's rapid response earned him a chorus of applause for his leadership in orchestrating swift search and rescue operations.

The commendable efforts didn't stop there; ministers, politicians and party cadres visited the quake-ravaged regions, signaling a collective commitment to stand by those affected. President Ram Chandra Poudel canceled his Europe trip to pay attention to the plight of the earthquake victims. At first it appeared that these ministers and political leaders were flocking to the scene, not merely for a photo op but to offer genuine sympathy and the promise of timely relief.

But the road to recovery has proven agonizingly slow. Despite weeks since the earthquake, the quest for proper shelter remains a distant dream for many. The government's relief measures, once hailed for their immediacy, now seem to fall short—leaving earthquake victims shivering, desperately awaiting warm clothes to shield them from the unforgiving cold. While major political parties, including Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), and Rastriya Swatantra Party, are competing to assist locals in erecting temporary shelters, their efforts smack of political grandstanding in trying to make them look like they are there to help. 

Government agencies boast of providing adequate relief materials, including blankets, to combat the chill. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The distributed low-quality tents prove ineffective against the biting cold, leading to tragic consequences. Disturbing reports trickle in from Jajarkot and Rukum West, painting a grim picture of lives lost due to cold-related illnesses in the lack of sufficient clothes to protect them. The Accountability Watch Committee has recorded 11 deaths due to the cold-related illness, including that of a 25-year-old new mother. 

Rajendra Karki, ApEx correspondent in Jajarkot, reports that new mothers, senior citizens, and children, exposed to the elements in flimsy tarpaulin shelters, grapple with multiple health issues as the bitter cold intensifies. They need immediate help, but the help is not forthcoming—neither from the government, nor from political parties. 

The number of people visiting local health institutions has increased after the earthquake. According to the data provided by the Jajarkot District Health Service Office, a total of 674 pregnant women, 282 new mothers, and 4,115 children under the age five are vulnerable. Similarly, 2,836 senior citizens, 1,065 chronic patients and 408 physically challenged people are at risk. But the government has not yet come to their aid. 

In Jajarkot’s Kushe Rural Municipality alone, 515 pregnant women and 230 new mothers are living under makeshift shelters. Officials say a similar situation exists in Nalgad Municipality, where 331 pregnant women and 374 new mothers are in dire straits.  

As lives hang in the balance, political parties have mobilized volunteers to construct temporary shelters, each vying for credit in a race against time. Our Jajarkot correspondent Karki says a volunteer team of CPN-UML has cleared the debris of around 500 houses but managed to build only a handful of temporary shelters for the victims. The UML has deployed more than 1,000 cadres to the affected regions under the leadership of its youth leader Kiran Poudel.

Not to be outdone, the Nepali Congress has also mobilized its own set of volunteers. The party’s general secretary duo, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, and central working committee member, Pradeep Poudel, also recently visited the quake-hit areas to lend their hands in the rehabilitation efforts. 

Till now volunteers of political parties and other organizations have built approximately 700 temporary shelters. Various governmental and non-government organizations are also providing support to the Prime Minister’s Relief Fund. But as the spotlight remains fixed on political posturing, the grim reality of the earthquake victims persist. 

With 34,501 houses in Jajarkot and 16,909 in Rukum West completely ravaged, the urgency cannot be overstated. The issue of shelter and sustenance persists for the earthquake victims. Although the federal government dispatched funds to district offices, the trickle-down effect remains slow. Many rural municipalities falter in compiling a final list of victims and its verification—a prerequisite for the crucial Rs 25,000 cash meant for building temporary shelters.

Nearly a month after the disaster, the government has realized its lapses in the rehabilitation process. A Cabinet meeting on Wednesday decided to deploy Nepal Army, Armed Police Force and Nepal Police personnel for the construction of temporary shelters for the earthquake victims.

Experts say the government should already have efficient rehabilitation strategies in place, while noting that the decision to deploy security agencies to construct temporary shelters did not come soon enough. This belated response shows that the government and its relevant agencies have failed to take lessons from the 2015 earthquake.

Is turning the 1.5°C target from the Paris Climate Accord into reality still possible? The answer seems to be a resounding no. Despite strides in renewable energy, global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions persist in shattering records.

The most recent Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Program (UNEFP) paints a stark picture, highlighting the urgent need for global low-carbon transformations. To achieve a 28 percent reduction in predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions for a 2°C pathway and a 42 percent reduction for a 1.5°C pathway, substantial action is required. Shockingly, global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new high of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent, marking a 1.2 percent increase from 2021 to 2022.

A damning report from UN Climate Change emphasizes that current national climate action plans fall short of restraining global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a crucial goal of the Paris Agreement. The report underscores the necessity of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

It's evident that major countries aren't doing enough to cut the emissions. The UN report says: “Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions—particularly high-income and high-emitting countries among the G20—will need to take more ambitious and rapid action and provide financial and technical support to developing nations.” 

On November 30, governments worldwide will convene in Dubai for COP28, the 28th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This critical summit aims to address the disproportionate impact of climate change on low- and middle-income countries, predominantly from the Global South.

Despite the 2010 pledge to provide $100bn annually to the least developed countries through the Global Climate Fund, the targets are unmet, with figures indicating less than 10 percent fulfilled. The broken promise of climate finance will be one of the major agenda in COP28. 

The conference is poised to conclude the inaugural Global Stocktake, assessing progress toward the Paris Agreement's goals, including limiting warming to 1.5°C or above pre-industrial levels, enhancing adaptations to climate change, and increasing climate finance flows to developing. 

A significant focus of COP28 is the transfer of technology and knowledge. Low-income countries, including Nepal, advocate for a post-2023 roadmap, aligning with the 1.5 °C target. To this end, the UN Secretary-General plans a pivotal event in 2025, where countries can present Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)  in line with the 1.5°C target.

Following COP27's agreement to establish a fund compensating vulnerable countries for climate-induced loss and damage, COP28 faces the challenge of defining and operationalizing this crucial fund. 

Compensation for climate change-induced loss and damage is a right, not a request for assistance, says Rupak Sapkota, foreign affairs advisor to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. 

“The prime minister will prominently draw the attention of the international community about this issue both at the main session as well as in other sideline events.”

There has been an agreement regarding the operationalization of Loss and Damage Fund and a framework in this regard was finalized on Nov 4 this year. But concerns persist over the World Bank's role as an interim host, prompting reservations from developing countries.

As the global community grapples with loss and damage, Nepal remains a vocal advocate, emphasizing the devastating impact of climate-induced disasters on its population. The COP28 agenda includes a final decision on the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund.

A briefing prepared by LDCs states: “Ensuring support to address loss and damage remains a critical issue of LDC, which is already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate change. This includes the cost (both economic and non-economic) resulting from devastating cyclones in Malawi, sea-level rise in Kiribati and Tuvalu, glacial lake outbursts in Nepal and Bhutan. The COP28 is expected to take a final call on operationalization of loss and damage funds.”

Nepal's 2021 national framework on climate change underscores the urgency, revealing that climate-induced disasters contribute to 65 percent of annual disaster-related deaths. With the average annual economic loss at 0.08 percent of GDP, and extreme events like the 2017 Tarai floods, causing a 2.08 percent loss. Besides, multiple other studies have predicted an increase in loss and damage caused by climate-induced disasters in the future. So the need for urgent action is undeniable.

Nepal is taking center stage in international forums, specifically highlighting the plight of mountainous regions. Prime Minister Dahal’s invitation to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to witness the impact of climate change in Nepal's Himalayas speaks volumes. Guterres is likely to raise the issue of mountains in COP28. 

To highlight the plight of the mountains In COP28, Nepal plans high-level events on the sidelines of the conference to champion the causes of mountainous countries. On Dec 2, Nepal is set to organize the event titled Call of Mountain: Who saves us from the climate crisis. 

Sapkota says Nepal is projecting itself as a champion of agendas of mountainous countries. 

“Though Nepal has been raising the issue of mountains for a long time, the international community has not paid much heed. This time the prime minister is trying to raise this issue in clear and unequivocal terms.” 

Here is a list of the main negotiating groups at the COP:

G77 (and China) 

This group of 77 countries was founded in 1964 and has since grown to 134 countries, often aligned with China.

It is the largest negotiating bloc and functions throughout the UN system, beyond the UNFCCC.

Its party chair rotates annually, with Cuba currently at the helm for the first time.

Least Developed Countries (LDCs) 

The LCD group consists of 46 countries and brings together—as its name suggests—the world’s poorest nations. It is currently chaired by Nepal.

The topics at stake in the COP negotiations sometimes result in the LDC taking a different viewpoint from the G77.

Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF)

CVF brings together 58 countries with a combined population of 1.5bn people that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of global warming.

Founded in 2009, it is currently chaired by Ghana.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

SIDS is a coalition founded in 1990 of 40 low-lying islands or archipelagos threatened by rising sea levels. It is chaired by Samoa.

Despite its small size, it is widely recognised for its vocal role in the climate talks.

European Union (EU)

The EU bloc groups the 27 member states to agree on one common negotiating position.

The presidency of the European Council is held by Spain until the end of the year.

Umbrella Group

This group formed following the 1997 adoption of the Kyoto Protocol and is made up of a number of developed nations: Australia, Britain, Canada, the United States, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Norway and Ukraine.

It is generally opposed to the G77 or the LCDs.

BASIC

The BASIC bloc groups four large newly industrialized nations: Brazil, South Africa, India and China.

It came together in 2009 during COP15 in Copenhagen. 

Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC)

AILAC was established as a formal negotiating group in 2012 and represents a coordinated position for the countries of the North and South, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala (its current chair), Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Chile. 

This list is prepared by AFP

The first ever elected Constituent Assembly of Nepal officially abolished the 240-old monarchy in 2008, but the pro-royalist forces, no matter how nebulous and insignificant, never disappeared. 

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, a right-wing, pro-Hindu political force led by Kamal Thapa, continued to advocate for restoration of monarchy and Hindu state. What the RPP was demanding at the time was nothing more than a mere whimper of protest. 

With just a handful of seats in parliament, it had no chance of bringing back monarchy. The three major political parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—thought as much. They couldn’t have been more wrong. Same goes for many political pundits, columnists and commentators. 

Today pro-royalist groups are no longer vestiges of the past. Initially subdued, their voices for restoration of monarchy and Hindu state have grown louder in recent years.

While former king Gyanendra Shah has not publicly supported the ongoing movement, he has been known to offer patronage to royalist parties and pro-Hindu groups. He leans towards royalist sentiments, but he hasn’t aligned with any specific party. It seems the royalist forces need Shah more than he needs them.

A close associate of Shah acknowledges the impracticality of restoring monarchy without major party consensus. “He sympathizes with those raising the issue, but he is also aware that they lack the political strength and mass appeal.”

In the latest pro-royalist rally led by medical businessman Durga Prasai, thousands flooded the streets of Kathmandu, advocating for monarchy and a Hindu state. Prasai enticed supporters with promises of loan forgiveness. Yet, his true motives seemed detached from the cause. He had nothing to do with monarchy and Hindu state. 

Prasai used individuals burdened by micro-finances as pawns to join the rally. He made restoration of monarchy and Hindu state part of his key demands to garner strength from some pro-royalist and Hindu groups. But his divisive rhetoric provided a pretext for the authorities to quell the movement. 

No matter the motive behind the rally spearheaded by Prasai, it has unmistakably bolstered and galvanized the groups that wish to bring back monarchy and Hindu statehood.    

Just days after Prasai held a mass rally in the streets of Kathmandu, former king Shah made a public appearance in Jhapa to unveil the statue of King Prithvi Narayan Shah, who is credited for unifying various principalities to create modern Nepal. The former king was greeted by thousands of enthusiastic supporters, a scene reminiscent of when he visited Bhaktapur in September. 

The events concerning Prasai’s rally in Kathmandu and Shah’s visit to Jhapa should not be taken lightly. Observers say they underscore the growing public frustration with major political parties and the current government's perceived failures. If major political parties and the government fail to mend their ways, individuals like Prasai could exploit the disenchanted masses to further discredit the current political system. 

Upbeat by the size of the crowd at Prasai’s rally, RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden said: “The foundation of the republic has been shaken. It will soon topple.”

Former king Shah, who had met Prasai a few months back, has remained silent on the recent rally in Kathmandu, fueling speculation about his involvement. Major parties suspect he may have played a role in backing the rally. 

Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has urged Shah to enter politics openly instead of operating behind the scenes.

“You are free to register a political party, contest the election and secure the two-thirds majority needed to overturn the current system,” Thapa challenged Shah at a recent event.

As the number of protesters increases, questions arise: Is the discontent aimed at the political system or a frustration with corrupt and ineffective leaders? Lawmaker Amresh Singh argues it's the latter, emphasizing the need for better governance.

“The weaknesses of the current crop of leaders from major political parties are the reason why regressive forces are targeting the republican system,” he says. “But one must make the distinction that this is the manifestation of frustration against the political parties, not against the current political system.”

Now royalist parties too are planning to hold mass rallies demanding the reinstatement of monarchy and Hindu state. Some observers suggest that external forces, such as India's Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, may be supporting the movement, urging major parties to remain vigilant while also making sincere efforts to correct their ways.  

Congress, UML and Maoist Center already face challenges from newly formed political forces, particularly the Rastriya Swatantra Party which pulled off a major victory at their electoral bastions in the 2022 general elections. 

Before that the three parties were stunned during the local election in which independent candidates, such as Balendra Shah and Harka Sampang, won the mayoral seats in Kathmandu and Dharan. Pro-royalist forces like the RPP, under the leadership of Lingden, are also enjoying a moment of resurgence right now.  

All these developments do not bode well for the three major parties who have been dominating the national politics and governance since 2008, with little to show for. 

Ever since the country adopted a federal republic set-up, the Congress, UML and Maoist have all led the government, but they have little to show for it. Unemployment, corruption, poor governance and political instability have thrived under their rule.     

The delayed response from major political parties and the government to address genuine issues, such as financial exploitation by micro-finances and rampant corruption, exacerbates people's frustrations. It's crucial for parties to address these root causes seriously.

Youth leaders within major parties acknowledge internal problems but lack the capacity to bring change. 

“If the current leadership continues to carry on with its current attitude and working style, we are sure to face a difficult time in the next election,” says Nainsingh Mahar, a Nepali Congress Central Working Committee member.  

Last week, India organized the second edition of Voice of Global South Summit to share key outcomes achieved in various G20 meetings over the course of India’s Presidency this year. The summit discussed the common challenges faced by the countries of the Global South.

Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was also invited at the concluding session of the summit attended by more than 125 countries from the Global South . Addressing the session, Dahal said that the world is facing an unprecedented crisis generated by the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, and deepening geo-political complexities. They have impacts on food and nutrition, health and education, economy and environment, and peace and security, he said.

“Developing countries, especially the LDCs, are the most affected by these crises. Rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and persistent cycles of vulnerabilities continue to add to their worries,” Dahal said.

In order to address the challenges facing the world, Dahal urged the international community to focus on common goals of peace, progress and prosperity. For this, building of trust, promoting partnership and collaboration and working in solidarity remain crucial, the prime minister emphasized.  

Dahal also called for the need to champion inclusive and sustainable global growth, in which the Global South receives a fair share to eradicate poverty and give their people a decent life. He also said tha Nepal remains steadfast in its commitment to multilateralism with the United Nations at the center.

“Nonetheless, we believe that the existing global governance architecture needs a timely reform to make it relevant and reflective of today’s realities. Reform of the international financial architecture should be a top priority with full consideration to the voice of the countries in special situations, including LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS,” Dahal said.

He added: “Climate change remains a grave threat to humanity. Climate-vulnerable countries like Nepal have been bearing the burden of climate change. The effect of climate change on the Himalayas has posed a severe threat to the lives and livelihoods of millions of people living in our region. We all must commit ourselves to achieving the set ambitions in a time-bound manner.”

The prime minister further said that Nepal is graduating from the LDC status by 2026 and the nation is committed to making this process smooth, sustainable, and irreversible. 

“Sustainable Development Goals remain at the center of our development vision and priorities with integration into national policies and plans. But even the progress that we achieved so far has been threatened by the multitude of global crises,” he said.  “Hence, we have been calling for an enhanced level of international support from our partners such as development assistance, FDI, trade facilitation, technology transfer and technical assistance. South-South cooperation should also be forthcoming to lifting the neediest countries.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the Global South wants its autonomy and it is ready to take up greater responsibility in global matters. 

“Geographically, the Global South has always existed, but it is getting a voice for the first time, and this is because of joint efforts. We are more than 100 countries but our priorities are similar,” he said. 

Modi also spoke of the 5 ‘Cs’, a commitment to which would power the growth of these countries. The 5 ‘Cs’ are “consultation, cooperation, communication, creativity and capacity building.

The foreign ministers’ session deliberated on major global agendas, including climate change, energy transition, technological transformation, and restoring trust in multilateralism. 

Minister for External Affairs of India S Jaishankar said India took over its G20 Presidency in the backdrop of a very challenging global, and in its presidency, India’s anchor was the Global South.  

“Its voices inspired our priorities, fueled our efforts, and galvanized a path-breaking consensus,” he said. “Recognizing our shared past, the Global South will continue to make efforts for One Earth and to strengthen the voices of the developing countries, the Indian minister said, as one family, the Global South will continue to act with everyone’s interests in mind and drive transformation and building synergies.”  

In the summit, India also announced some initiatives. One of them is the Global South Centre of Excellence which will work as a think tank and will also work as a repository of knowledge and development initiatives in order to interface with the Global South and seek ways to forge collaboration with countries in this region. 

On Nov 22, India organized a G20 leader’s Summit to review the progress in the implementation of outcomes and action points from the New Delhi Summit. India has said that during the G20 presidency it articulated the voice of the Global South. 

Ahead of COP28, in the G20 summit, Indian Prime Minister Modi urged the countries to take concrete actions on Global South’s priorities in the Global South.  

Foreign policy observers say Nepal can take the benefit from the initiatives but Nepal has not made any preparations on it. Climate change is one of the areas on which Nepal can get benefits.

Box

The proposal made by Modi:

• Climate action and climate justice with greater focus on adaptation
• Easy and affordable climate finance for vulnerable countries
• Raising climate finance from billions to trillions
• Just, inclusive and affordable energy transition
• Focus on alternative fuels
• G20 high-level principles on Hydrogen
• Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030

India’s initiative for Global South

• Global South Center of excellence for research on development issues
• Arogya Maitri Initiative for supplying essential medicines and supplies for humanitarian assistance to global south
• India’s digital health service delivery stack to be made available to Global South
• Global South and Science and Technology initiative for the capacity building
• G20 satellite mission for environment and climate observation to share climate and weather data with Global South
• Global South Partnership Program for the students of global south in India
• Global-South young diplomat forum

The G20 Summit in September spoke at length about the voices of developing countries in the global decision-making process.

• Better integrate the perspectives of developing countries, including LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDS, into future G20 agenda and strengthen the voice of developing countries in global decision making.
• Recognize the importance of WTO’s ‘Aid for Trade’ initiative to enable developing countries, notably LDCs, to effectively participate in global trade, including through enhanced local value creation.
• Facilitate equitable access to safe, effective, quality-assured, and affordable vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics, and other medical countermeasures, especially in Low-and Middle-income Countries (LMICs), LDCs and SIDS.
• Accelerate actions to address environmental crises and challenges including climate change being experienced worldwide, particularly by the poorest and the most vulnerable, including in LDCs and SIDS.
• Continue to support augmentation of capabilities of all countries, including emerging economies, in particular developing countries, LDCs and SIDS, for promoting disaster and climate resilience of infrastructure systems.
• Extend strong support to Africa, including through the G20 Compact with Africa and G20 Initiative on supporting industrialization in Africa and LDCs. Hold further discussions to deepen cooperation between the G20 and other regional partners.
• Increase resource needs of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and FATF Style Regional Bodies and encourage others to do the same, including for the next round of mutual evaluations. Timely and global implementation of the revised FATF Standards on the transparency of beneficial ownership of legal persons and legal arrangements to make it more difficult for criminals to hide and launder ill-gotten gains.

Seventeen years ago today, the Nepal government and the then Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) signed the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA), declaring an end to the decade-long armed conflict. 

It was the dawn of a new political chapter for Nepal. The CPA led to the epochal political changes, such as abolition of centuries-old monarchy in 2008 and promulgation of new federal republican constitution in 2015. 

Under the new constitution, Nepal has already held two periodic elections of three-tier governments—federal, provincial and local governments. The Maoist party has embraced parliamentary democracy and the management of Maoist combatants, one of the vital tasks of the peace process, has been completed. 

Among other notable progress are greater representation of ethnic communities and women in state mechanisms and devolution of powers to the local level with decentralization of services. In fact, Nepal today is regarded as one of the most open, democratic, and inclusive societies in South Asia.

But it has not been all positives. 

The issue of transitional justice still remains pending and thousands of conflict victims are still awaiting justice; the social-economic transformation envisaged by the CPA still eludes the country; and the major parties’ failure to deliver, mainly on service delivery and economic fronts, has caused frustrations among people.

Put simply, Nepal continues to grapple with the age-old problems caused by poor political leadership. The country’s economy is in shambles, corruption is entrenched, and job opportunities are hard to come by. Successive governments, all led by the three big parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—at one time or another, have failed to address these issues. 

This failure has eroded people’s faith in the system, and some traditional rightist forces are trying to exploit this crisis of trust to undo the progress made so far. Talks about restoration of monarchy, dismantling federalism and reverting to a Hindu nation are gaining traction. 

Of late, there have been systematic efforts to sabotage the 2015 constitution, one of the major achievements of CPA. Already, there are indications of fraying social harmony and religious tolerance, something unprecedented in Nepal’s recent political history. 

“It is imperative that all political parties that champion democracy and republicanism  collectively stand up against regressive elements,” says CPN-UML leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta. 

He warns if the transitional period that began with signing of CPA prolongs, all the political gains for which the people and political parties fought for could be at risk.   Suman Adhikari, a conflict-victim, says leaders of major political parties used the peace process as a ladder to reach to power and abandoned the agenda of conflict-victims. 

“We are fed up with hollow promises and rhetorics. There has been little progress when it comes to providing justice to us.”  Adhikari adds: “The issue of weapon management was a threat to the politicians, so they resolved it immediately. But when it comes to us powerless victims, they are happy to stay quiet.”  The two transitional justice bodies formed to investigate and settle the conflict-era crimes are without any office-bearers for a long time, while the laws governing the transitional justice process also need amendments.  

But even after the amendments to the laws and formation of a fully functioning all-acceptable transitional justice commissions, it could take years to investigate all war-era cases.  Although Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is seeking the support of political parties as well as the international community to conclude the peace process, it is easier said than done. 

Dahal wants to conclude the peace process under his leadership because he and other senior leaders from his party are the ones facing cases of war crimes and human rights violations. The Maoist prime minister wants to ensure safe landing for himself and his party leaders who could technically be arrested anywhere under the universal jurisdiction of human rights. 

While addressing the 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) earlier this year, Dahal sought the support of the international community to conclude the peace process. He repeated this during his Beijing trip after meeting with communist party leaders as well. Amid pressure not to opt for blanket amnesty when it comes to cases of serious crimes and human rights violation, the prime minister has been assuring the international community that the transitional justice process will be in line with the international practice. 

“We are now closer to logically concluding our unique, nationally owned, and home-grown peace process. Completing the remaining tasks of transitional justice is on my top political agenda,” Dahal told the UNGA. “As prime minister and a co-signatory of the Comprehensive Peace Accord, I have been making serious efforts to bridge the gap and gaps and build consensus among key stakeholders.”

But not everyone is convinced, certainly not the conflict victims.  

“We are the major stakeholder in the transitional justice process, and yet they are the ones whose concerns and voices are being neglected by the government and major political parties,” says Adhikari. The Dahal-led government has presented an amendment bill related to transitional justice in Parliament which has again drawn criticisms from the international community for its shortcomings. 

The prime minister has defended the bill stating that it evolved through a wider consultative process, while taking a victim-centric approach and recognizing reparation as victims’ right.

In his address to the UNGA, Prime Minister Dahal said: “There will be no blanket amnesty for serious violations of human rights. The ultimate objective is to establish an enduring peace in the country and foster harmony in society through peace, justice and reconciliation.”  He also appealed to the international community for their goodwill and support to the conclusion of the final leg of the peace process and to duly recognize this rare example of successful conflict transformation.

But forging a consensus on the transitional justice process is still an uphill task for the Dahal government. He has yet to bring other political parties, including the main opposition, CPN-UML, into confidence on the contents of the law. Dahal worked very hard to endorse the transitional justice bill from the winter session of Parliament but he failed to do so.

Observers say Prime Minister Dahal may not have his moment of glory by concluding the peace process so long as the other two main political parties—Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—continue to use the issue of transitional justice as a political bargaining chip.    All political parties must take the onus to deliver justice to the conflict victims, but this has not been the case so far. 

Political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta says the CPA only managed direct confrontation between the state and non-state actors, while giving birth to a society-centric conflict.  “Nepali politics and parties failed to embrace the spirit of the peace accord. As a result, there are still problems in society. Some of the residues of conflict are yet to be addressed which is a prerequisite to achieve a durable peace in society.”  Nepal needs a wider political consensus to conclude its long-drawn-out peace process and to eventually embrace the path of growth and prosperity, which has not happened in the past 17 years.