China’s new strategy in Nepal: Engagement without endorsement
It has been three weeks since the formation of the interim government led by Sushila Karki, who was appointed by President Ramchandra Poudel with a mandate to hold elections within six months. The Karki-led Cabinet has already announced that the elections for the House of Representatives (HoR) will be held on March 5.
Since taking office, Karki and her ministers have been actively engaging with major international powers. Countries including India, the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan have extended congratulations to the new government and held diplomatic meetings with its leadership.
On Sept 12, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, responding to a media question, offered a formal congratulatory message: “China and Nepal share a time-honored friendship. China, as always, respects the development path chosen independently by the people of Nepal. We stand ready to work with Nepal to promote the five principles of peaceful coexistence, enhance exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and further advance bilateral relations.”
Six days later, on Sept 18, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song met with Prime Minister Karki to formally extend congratulations and reaffirm bilateral cooperation. "We exchanged views and agreed to further promote our friendship and cooperation," Chen noted following the meeting. During this period, the Chinese Ambassador also held discussions with several ministers, focusing on ongoing Chinese projects in Nepal.
Despite these engagements, a notable absence remains: there has been no public congratulatory message from either the Chinese President or Prime Minister. This marks a departure from precedent. For example, in both 2018 and 2024, when KP Sharma Oli became Prime Minister, China’s top leadership extended congratulations within days. Similarly, after Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s appointment on 25 Dec 2022, then Chinese Premier Li Keqiang sent his message by Dec 29.
The muted response has sparked speculation among political observers in Kathmandu. Analysts suggest Beijing may be unsettled by the new political landscape that emerged from the recent GenZ protests—an unexpected movement that sidelined many traditional power brokers, including Nepal’s left-leaning parties that China has historically favored.
Over over a decade, China has primarily relied on Nepal’s communist parties to secure its strategic interests, particularly in matters of regional security. In recent years, however, relations between China and the Nepali Congress had also improved—culminating in the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement last year, despite previously strained ties.
However, the GenZ movement has disrupted the traditional political order. According to China watchers in Kathmandu, Beijing is now grappling with two main concerns: Political instability–a volatile Nepal could undermine Chinese interests and security in the region, and Western influence–increased engagement by Western countries with the new government may be viewed as a challenge to China's strategic foothold.
Further complicating the picture is an unusual congratulatory message from the Dalai Lama to Karki on Sept 13—an exceedingly rare gesture that may have further displeased Beijing. Adding to the speculation, Chinese state media has largely remained silent. Apart from brief news reports by Xinhua and China Daily, there has been no commentary, editorials, or opinion pieces—typically a key indicator of the Chinese government’s sentiment on foreign developments.
According to regional analysts, China’s approach to new governments in Nepal typically follows two tracks. If Nepal’s leadership is perceived as favorable—usually under communist parties—Beijing sees it as an opportunity to expand influence. For instance, erstwhile government led by KP Sharma Oli extensively engaged with China. The two notable developments with China were the signing of the BRI framework agreement and Prime Minister Oli’s participation in the Victory Day parade, which helped appeased Beijing. But, soon after his return from Beijing, Oli’s government collapsed.
If the regime is seen as less aligned, China focuses on safeguarding its core interests through cautious engagement while avoiding overt displays of dissatisfaction. So far, China appears to be choosing the latter path with the Karki-led interim government—engaging pragmatically. According to experts, China may support holding the elections as soon as possible, as it would bring political parties to power.
ApEx Newsletter: Key Events of Sept 28
Hello from Kathmandu,
A probe committee formed to investigate the violent protests on Sept 8–9 has recommended that the Nepal government ban former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and five other high-level officials from traveling abroad.
The committee, led by former judge Gauri Bahadur Karki, made the recommendation following pressure from the interim government led by Sushila Karki. The other officials barred from leaving the country include former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, former Home Secretary Gokarna Mani Duwadi, Chief of the National Investigation Department Hutraj Thapa, and former Chief District Officer of Kathmandu Chhabi Lal Rijal.
The commission has also ruled that these individuals must seek permission to leave the Kathmandu Valley. The decision is based on the premise that, as individuals under investigation, they must remain accessible to the commission at any time.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Home Affairs has issued a controversial statement requesting that police refrain from arresting or prosecuting individuals involved in vandalism and arson of public and private property during the Sept 8–9 protests. This has drawn widespread criticism.
The ministry’s statement further noted that, since an inquiry commission has already been formed, government decisions will be based on the commission’s findings, and regular law enforcement mechanisms will not take action independently. Nevertheless, police have already arrested dozens in connection with the vandalism, including individuals involved in the killing of police officers and arson of police posts. There is growing pressure on the police to release these suspects.
Senior constitutional expert Bipin Adhikari has criticized the Home Ministry’s stance. “The police and prosecution in Nepal can and should act under criminal law independently of any independent commission’s timeline,” said Adhikari. “The commission’s report may inform broader accountability or reforms, including policing changes, but it does not halt criminal investigations.”
The National Human Rights Commission has urged the Nepal government to enhance national security and service delivery in view of the upcoming Dashain festival.
The CPN-UML convened its first secretariat meeting since the recent protests, during which the party strongly objected to the government’s reported decision to block former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli from traveling abroad. Speaking after the meeting, UML leader Pradeep Gyawali said, “We have taken serious note of the news that a recommendation has been made for the suspension of Oli's passport. We strongly object to this move.”
Gyawali accused the government of taking a path of political revenge. “It appears that the government is not only avoiding consultations with other political parties but is also moving toward a policy of prohibition,” he said. “There are clear signs that the government is attempting to suppress political parties, which is a matter of serious concern for us.”
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance has announced that it is investigating allegations that political leaders have been hoarding undeclared cash. In a statement, the ministry said the Department of Money Laundering Investigation is looking into the matter. This follows media reports that large sums of cash were found in the private residences of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal.
The ministry added that it is taking seriously the reports—circulating in both mainstream and social media—that cash was burned or discovered in various locations during the GenZ protests. In a key appointment, the government has named Ajaya Bhadra Khanal, a former journalist and editor of The Himalayan Times, as Chief Advisor to Prime Minister Sushila Karki. Govinda Narayan Timalsina has been appointed as Public Relations Officer. Meanwhile, GenZ protest groups are growing rapidly. One such group has released a statement declaring that they reject the current constitution. Like political parties, there are multiple GenZ protest groups driven by different political ideologies.
Kamal Dev Bhattarai
Editor
Kites fill the sky (With Photos)
As Dashain approaches, kites have started appearing in the sky. Flying kites holds a special significance during the festival, as people enjoy the celebration by sending colorful kites soaring above.
Children and youths, in particular, fly kites with great excitement, adding more joy to the festive atmosphere. The tradition of kite flying is often seen as a symbol of freedom and happiness.


In Chikamugal, Kathmandu, Dipendra Kumar Ranjitkar has been selling kites every Dashain for nearly four decades. In earlier times, his shop used to be crowded with customers, but in recent years, the number of buyers has declined.
A simple kite costs between Rs 10 and Rs 40, while paper-made Nepali kites crafted especially for Dashain are more expensive. The price of spools (lattai) ranges from Rs 120 for a small one to Rs 1,000–1,200 for larger ones.
Although kite-making is mainly for Dashain, Ranjitkar begins preparing them right after Indra Jatra.


Flying kites during Dashain is not just a game—it brings families and communities together, adds joy to the festival, and helps preserve culture and tradition. With colorful kites soaring high, the festive spirit becomes even more vibrant.
Photos: Nepal Photo Library




Nepal’s dismissed PM Oli calls for constitutional solution to ongoing crisis
As Nepal's interim government moves ahead with preparations for national elections scheduled for March 21 next year, former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli—dismissed following the violent protests on Sept 8–9—has asserted that the current government does not offer a solution to the ongoing national crisis.
Speaking at a public program organized by the youth wing of his party in Bhaktapur amid tight security, the former Prime Minister urged political parties to seek a resolution to the crisis through constitutional means. This suggests that his party, the CPN-UML, does not recognize the legitimacy of the interim government led by Sushila Karki.
Despite internal pressure within the party for Oli to step down, he appears determined to continue shaping the party’s future direction. Just prior to the protests, the CPN-UML endorsed a proposal allowing Oli to lead the party for a third consecutive term.
Although the statement issued by President Ram Chandra Poudel on Sept 12 noted that Sushila Karki was appointed prime minister with the consent of then-PM Oli, Oli now claims he had instead urged the President to find a constitutional solution. It is argued that appointing a non-parliamentarian as prime minister was a violation of the constitution.
Referring to the protests, Oli said, “Less than one percent of the population is trying to impose their will on the remaining 99 percent.” Since leaving the Nepal Army barracks after a 10-day stay, Oli—who also serves as the CPN-UML chairman, the second-largest party in the now-dissolved House of Representatives—has resumed political activity, holding meetings with party delegations and calling a secretariat meeting to discuss the political situation.
In a strong statement that is likely to irk both the current government and protestors, Oli claimed the interim government was not formed by the people’s mandate but rather “on the foundation of vandalism and arson.” He vowed to restore the country’s constitutional framework.
This indicates that the UML could support restoring the dissolved Parliament and forming a new government—an extremely difficult task, especially amid growing public distrust of political parties. On social media, Oli’s remarks have drawn widespread criticism. Government ministers have also expressed concern that such statements could inflame an already fragile situation and pose law and order risks. Oli has further criticized the government for failing to provide him with adequate security, saying he has received threats but that authorities are not taking them seriously. “I see people locating my house and planning to attack it. What is the government doing?” he said. About the Sept 9 violence, Oli said: “Had there been a five-minute delay, I would have been killed. There was a plan to injure Sher Bahadurjee and kill me—but they failed. I trusted the security, but the army said they couldn’t do anything.”
As protestors demand that Oli be held accountable for the killing of 19 youths during the protests in Kathmandu on Sept 8, he challenged the government to produce evidence that he had ordered the shootings. “If the government has any record of instructions I gave, I challenge them to bring it forward,” he said.
He refused to take responsibility as the head of the government, while on the same day, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak resigned, accepting responsibility for the killings.
Hinting at the involvement of both domestic and international forces, Oli remarked, “I see how different powers are playing their games and trying to steer Nepal in their direction. The Nepali people must stay alert.” He has publicly claimed that foreign forces conspired to remove him due to his nationalist stance.
Amid reports that the government is seeking to block the passports of senior leaders, including Oli, the former PM stated, “Are we going to flee abroad and hand over the country to this government? No—we will build this country.” However, Oli has yet to acknowledge mistakes made during his time in office, including the controversial social media ban. He is now preparing for dialogue with major parties, including the Nepali Congress and the CPN (Maoist Center).
In efforts to create a favorable atmosphere for the upcoming election, President Ram Chandra Poudel is holding consultations with senior leaders of the main parties. On Sept 26, he held an extended meeting with CPN-UML leaders Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Poudel, and Shanker Pokhrel. UML leaders reportedly complained that the government is failing to ensure a conducive environment for elections.
Despite efforts, the three main parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have yet to hold a joint meeting, leaving the future political course uncertain. Party leaders are increasingly suspicious that the current government may be planning to imprison them under the pretext of corruption.
                        
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                                    

