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Wildfires have been raging at a community forest in Thamlek, Kavre district, since Tuesday afternoon. Together with local people, security personnel have been trying hard to extinguish the blazes, to little avail.

While blazes occur during the dry season in Nepal without fail, all three tyres of the government—local, provincial and federal—appear ill-prepared to deal with the disaster. Ill-equipped communities and security personnel try to douse the blazes, literally with bare hands, in a desperate bid to save lives and properties, often with little success.

Data speak for themselves. According to the Global Forest Watch, from 2001 to 2023, Nepal lost 7.05 kilo hectares (kha) of tree cover from fires and 48.6 kha from all other drivers of loss. The year with the most tree cover loss due to fires during this period was 2009 with 1.33 kha lost to fires—24 percent of all tree cover loss for that year.

The average annual loss of lives and properties from these blazes paints a very alarming picture. On an average, 77 people lose their lives in wildfires and other incidents of fire every year, according to government statistics.

Data from the Disaster Risk Reduction Management Authority show that 18,772 fire incidents took place in Nepal from 2014 to mid-March 2023, killing 769 people, leaving 2,548 injured and causing a total financial loss of over Rs. 22.23bn. 

A question arises: What (or more exactly who) causes wildfires in Nepal? A June 2022 study titled Status and Practical Implications of Forest Fire Management in Nepal, published in the Journal of Forest and Livelihood, seeks to tackle this question. The study shows that 58 percent of forest fires are a result of deliberate burning on the part of grazers, poachers, hunters and non-timber forest product collectors, 22 per cent due to negligence and 20 per cent by accident. 

Online data from the Global Forest Watch (2021) show that more than 80 percent of forest fires occur in March and April, with about 60 percent forest fires occurring in April alone. 

A walk into the forests located not so far away from our settlements generally shows gross negligence in the management of forests. Firebreaks are rare and so are forest guards while dry leaves and grasses are everywhere. In such a situation, all it takes is a live cigarette butt, a live matchstick and a criminal or negligent mindset to set the woods—and nearby settlements—on fire. 

The Thamlek incident should open the eyes of our authorities and local communities, prompting them to do some serious homework to save lives and properties from fires and other disasters, both manmade and natural.   

This week, opposition parties have become increasingly united against the KP Sharma Oli-led government. In response to mounting pressure, the government has called for the winter session of Parliament to begin on Jan 31. A key issue remains the government’s controversial decision to introduce nearly half a dozen ordinances, which has sparked national debate. Criticism has come not only from opposition parties but also from within the ruling coalition, with senior Nepali Congress (NC) leader Shekhar Koirala openly expressing his displeasure.

Dissent within the NC is growing more pronounced. While some leaders, like Koirala, are covertly working to alter the coalition dynamics, others, including NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba and General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa, are focused on improving the government’s performance. Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has intensified efforts to disrupt the coalition. In the recently concluded Central Committee meeting of his party, Dahal presented a political document emphasizing alliances with revolutionary forces rather than with parties like the NC or CPN-UML. This week, Dahal openly stated his intent to topple the government, declaring: “This government will not last long. If it collapses, NC will become our partner.” Dahal’s public suggestion that Prime Minister Oli should step down is a significant shift, marking the first time such an open challenge has been issued since the coalition’s formation. One NC leader remarked, “The game to remove Oli has already begun, but we cannot predict how long it will take.”

Dahal is actively engaging with opposition parties to bolster parliamentary support and enhance his bargaining position with the NC, should the government fall. However, Janata Samajbadi Party Chairman Upendra Yadav has publicly stated his refusal to support Dahal, complicating Dahal’s plans. Within the NC, the dynamics are equally intriguing. While Koirala’s faction is quietly maneuvering against the government, Deuba and Thapa are determined to stabilize the coalition. Thapa, in particular, is collaborating with senior UML leaders to explore ways to improve the government’s performance. Deuba has also urged NC ministers to deliver better results, reaffirming his commitment to maintaining the coalition.

Within the ruling UML, preparations are underway for the party’s general convention to elect a new chairman. While Oli’s position appears secure, some senior leaders have started aligning with former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, potentially posing a challenge to his leadership. In a significant development, UML announced it would not pursue unification with its splinter group, CPN (Unified Socialist), led by Madhav Kumar Nepal. However, it extended an invitation to leaders and cadres from the splinter group—excluding Nepal himself. This week, Bam Dev Gautam, a prominent figure who had been sidelined in party politics, announced his return to the UML. Gautam’s re-entry could alter the party’s internal dynamics, as he is expected to strongly back Oli. To consolidate his position, Oli might elevate Gautam within the party, potentially sidelining senior leaders who are shifting toward Bhandari’s camp.

On the international front this week, Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President has sparked concerns in Nepal. His executive orders and policy decisions, including potential deportations of undocumented Nepalis in the US, could have significant repercussions. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization could also impact Nepal’s climate change initiatives and health sector, which rely heavily on international support. Additionally, US assistance for Nepal’s gender and sexual minority communities might be affected. These developments have prompted government officials and foreign policy experts to assess the potential implications for Nepal.

To highlight the effects of climate change in the Himalayas, Nepal has scheduled the Sagarmatha Sambad, a global dialogue, from May 16-18 in Kathmandu. This event, originally planned for 2020 but postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, will focus on the theme “Climate Change, Mountains, and the Future of Humanity.” If successful, it will mark Nepal’s first major international dialogue of this kind, offering a platform to spotlight critical issues such as the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers. The government faces the challenge of ensuring high-level participation from countries and multilateral organizations to enhance the event’s significance. Strong collaboration between the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be crucial to its success. Social media has already drawn attention to the issue, with many users sharing photos of snowless mountains, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate change.

In another development this week, the Department of Immigration’s latest Nepali Departure Report reveals a troubling trend. In 2024, 66,835 Nepalis left the country permanently, obtaining residency abroad, compared to approximately 70,000 in 2023. Additionally, 856,422 Nepalis sought foreign employment. These figures highlight an ongoing exodus, with no signs of abating.

Meanwhile, the dry winter season has persisted, raising concerns about a prolonged drought. Rising temperatures may offer some respite from the cold but pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources and public health. The dry conditions also increase the likelihood of wildfires, some of which have already been reported. The government must prioritize preparations to address these challenges.

In another story, the Cabinet has endorsed a bill regulating social media in Nepal, though its contents have yet to be disclosed. This move has sparked curiosity and concern among the public, who are eager to learn about the bill’s potential implications for digital freedoms and expression.

Neo-fascism, a modern revival of authoritarian ideologies characterized by nationalism, anti-liberalism, and the erosion of democratic norms, is increasingly shaping global politics. Once associated with the authoritarian regimes of the early 20th century, such as Benito Mussolini’s Italy, neo-fascism is now emerging in various parts of the world, including Nepal. Despite its democratic framework, Nepal is witnessing the rise of neo-fascist elements within its political parties and leaders, threatening core democratic principles and minority rights.

While South Asia has had limited direct exposure to European fascism, authoritarianism, nationalism, and militarism have manifested regionally in troubling ways. Countries like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal exhibit patterns resembling neo-fascism, challenging democratic norms and inclusivity. In Nepal, both old and emerging political parties and their leaders are adopting tactics and ideologies reminiscent of fascism, undermining the nation's democratic ethos.

Nepal, with its fragile democracy and history of political instability, provides fertile ground for the rise of neo-fascist tendencies. Political parties—both traditional and new—have displayed authoritarian traits, employed exclusive nationalist rhetoric, and sought to centralize power at the expense of democratic institutions and minority rights.

A remnant of the bygone royal regime, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) embodies a yearning for monarchical centralization. The RPP often calls for the restoration of a Hindu state, promoting exclusionary nationalism that marginalizes Nepal’s religious and cultural diversity. Its leaders glorify the monarchy as a symbol of unity and stability, reminiscent of fascist ideals of a strong, centralized authority. The party’s resistance to federalism and advocacy for a unitary state align with neo-fascist tendencies of eroding regional autonomy.

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), under the leadership of Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), has also exhibited authoritarian characteristics. During the decade-long insurgency, the Maoists relied on militarization and the glorification of Prachanda’s leadership, fostering a cult of personality that echoes Mussolini’s tactics. Even in the post-insurgency period, the party’s hierarchical structure and intolerance for dissent within its ranks reveal authoritarian tendencies. The party's leaders have used populist rhetoric to consolidate power while sidelining opposition voices, undermining democratic discourse.

In recent years, concerns have grown over the influence of neo-fascism within Madhes-based political parties in Nepal. These parties, which represent the Madhesi community, have historically advocated for marginalized groups’ rights and greater autonomy. However, some factions are increasingly adopting ultra- regionalist, authoritarian ideologies, characterized by aggressive regionalism, ethnic superiority, and exclusionary politics. This shift threatens the inclusive federalism enshrined in Nepal's constitution, raising fears about undermining democratic values and political pluralism. As these parties navigate their identity and power, it is crucial for Nepal to ensure that democratic principles and federalism are upheld amidst rising nationalist pressures.

Emerging political figures like Rabi Lamichhane and his Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) have capitalized on populist and nationalist sentiments. Lamichhane’s rhetoric often targets foreign influence, invoking fears of national sovereignty being undermined. While this approach garners public support, it risks fostering xenophobia and scapegoating minorities, particularly the Madhesi and indigenous communities. This exclusive nationalism, combined with Lamichhane’s attempts to position himself as a strong leader, reflects neo-fascist tendencies.

Even mainstream parties like the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) are not exempt from neo-fascist tendencies. Leaders like KP Sharma Oli of the UML have frequently used divisive nationalism to strengthen their hold on power. During his multiple terms as prime minister, Oli oversaw a growing centralization of authority, efforts to undermine parliamentary processes, and the sidelining of provincial governments. His frequent use of national security threats to justify his policies echoes neo-fascist tactics of consolidating power through fear and division.

Neo-fascism in Nepal often manifests in exclusive nationalist rhetoric that sidelines ethnic, linguistic, and religious minorities. Political parties frame federalism and decentralization as threats to national unity, undermining the representation and autonomy of Madhesi, Dalit, and indigenous communities. The opposition to inclusive policies fosters a narrow vision of national identity, eroding Nepal’s rich multicultural heritage.

The suppression of dissent is another hallmark of fascism evident in Nepal. Successive governments have restricted media freedom, targeted journalists and activists, and leveraged cyber laws to curb online expression. These actions echo tactics used by neo-fascist regimes globally to silence opposition and control public discourse. The increased surveillance of civil society groups and restrictions on peaceful protests further signal a drift toward authoritarianism.

Nepal’s political leaders frequently invoke national security concerns to justify expanding military and police powers. For example, the government’s decision to militarize border areas under the pretext of protecting sovereignty has been criticized as overreach. Similarly, the increased reliance on security forces to manage civil unrest fosters a climate of fear and normalizes authoritarian measures.

Social media has become a powerful tool for spreading nationalist rhetoric and neo-fascist ideologies in Nepal. The widespread use and abuse of platforms have fueled the rise of figures like Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Saha and RSP leader Lamichhane. Political leaders and parties leverage platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to amplify ultra-nationalist messages, frequently targeting minorities and critics. The swift spread of misinformation and polarizing content divides society, providing fertile ground for neo-fascist ideas to flourish.

The rise of neo-fascism in Nepal threatens its democratic framework, inclusivity, and civil liberties. Continued erosion of democratic institutions, suppression of dissent, and centralization of power could undermine Nepal’s progress toward becoming a stable, pluralistic society.

Moreover, Nepal’s geopolitical position between India and China makes rising nationalism particularly risky. Anti-foreign rhetoric could strain diplomatic relations, disrupt trade, and hinder regional cooperation.

As Bertrand Russell warned, fascism thrives in times of unrest, using propaganda and nationalism to scapegoat minorities and consolidate power. Nepal’s path forward requires vigilance, an informed citizenry, and a robust civil society. Political parties must commit to democratic norms, promote inclusivity, and resist the temptation to exploit nationalist sentiments for short-term gains.

Strengthening democratic institutions, ensuring media freedom, and fostering interethnic dialogue are critical to countering neo-fascist tendencies. Nepal must safeguard its democratic achievements and uphold the values of pluralism, equity, and justice for all its people.

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) introduced a policy requiring payment systems like WeChat Pay, Alipay and PayPal to register in Nepal in 2019 after these platforms started handling large transactions worth hundreds of thousands of rupees illegally.

Although many operators registered in Nepal and are operating legally as per the established regulations, there are still complaints that these platforms are still handling large transactions by violating the regulations. Police have arrested several people conducting such illegal payments multiple times.

In 2018, 2021 and 2023, police made several arrests to nab people conducting illegal transactions through WeChat Pay. Those arrested for such transactions in 2018 included restaurant owners and Nepali sellers working for multinational companies, according to police. In 2021, police arrested some Nepalis and Chinese nationals for conducting transactions worth millions of rupees through WeChat Pay. Last year, police arrested a few people from a restaurant in Bouddha for sending hundreds of thousands of rupees to China through WeChat Pay.

Following the police action, the Department of Revenue Investigation (DRI) also took interest into these cases and conducted its own investigation. An official of the DRI said that an investigation conducted about five years ago concluded that transactions through WeChat Pay were causing revenue evasion worth around Rs 50m.

Chandi Prasad Ghimire, director general of DRI, said that they have filed 30-35 complaints related to foreign exchange misappropriation through WeChat Pay. “Some cases were filed against people arrested by the police, while some were filed following our investigation,” Ghimire said. He urged businesses not to evade revenue through WeChat Pay or any other means and to follow legal procedures.

Although banks like NMB Bank and Machhapuchchhre Bank support QR-based WeChat Pay payments in Nepal, illegal payments are still occurring through WeChat Pay QR codes issued in China. This has caused significant economic damage to the country as transacted amounts go directly to Chinese bank accounts.

The latest case from the Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) of Nepal Police confirms that illegal fund transfers through WeChat have not stopped. SP Sudhir Shahi of CIB said the bureau cannot divulge further details about these cases as investigations are ongoing.

WeChat Pay permitted to do transactions

“Chinese traders were earlier using WeChat Pay for transactions in Nepal. They would send money directly to Chinese bank accounts,” a Nepali trader said. “Although authorities brought laws to stop such transactions, we hear this is still happening.”

The proliferation of such illegal activities led to foreign exchange misappropriation. This attracted the central bank’s attention. Consequently, NRB’s Foreign Exchange Management Department issued a circular in May 2019, terming WeChat Pay illegal and directing people not to use it. The central bank stated in the circular that using payment systems linked to foreign payment systems (like WeChat Pay, Alipay and POS machines issued from foreign countries, etc.) without Nepal Rastra Bank approval was illegal.

Subsequently, the central bank made provisions to recognize WeChat Pay through Payment and Settlement Regulations. After this, First Pay Technology Pvt Ltd applied for a Payment System Operator (PSO) license in Feb 2020 with a paid-up capital of Rs 100m. NMB Bank and Machhapuchchhre Bank also received licenses. First Pay entered an agreement with Tencent Company of China to bring WeChat Pay to Nepal legally. First Pay and these two banks have over 6,000 merchants including hotels and restaurants in tourist areas across the country.

Nepal Bankers Association Chairperson and Machhapuchchhre Bank CEO Santosh Koirala said it is necessary to bring such illegal payments into the legal framework.

Nepal Rastra Bank Spokesperson Ramu Paudel insisted that illegal payments are not happening now as systems are in place for WeChat Pay transactions to remain within the country. According to him, the payment system was established targeting Chinese tourists specifically for transparent transactions.

Similarly, AliPay can now process payments through all banks via Nepal Clearing Hosuse’s Nepal Pay. Foreign visitors can open convertible foreign currency accounts at Nepali banks and financial institutions valid for their visa duration. This facility expires after their visa ends.

Higher risk of illegal payments in Chinese tourist hubs

Thamel, Lumbini, Patan, Jhamsikhel, Bouddha and Rasuwa are some of the places frequented by Chinese tourists in Nepal. WeChat Pay stands have been installed at hotels, restaurants and travel agencies in these areas, according to Koirala. However, there still is risk of foreign currency misuse as Chinese service providers can use WeChat Pay QR codes issued in China to receive payments from Chinese nationals for the services they provide in Nepal.