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The coalition government of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, which came to power with the promise of stability, has failed to deliver on its mission. Now, it has become almost a daily mantra for Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba to assure the public that their coalition remains intact. Every day, Prime Minister Oli seeks reassurance from his colleague Deuba that there is no threat to the government’s survival.

For instance, upon returning from a tour of Thailand, Deuba told reporters that there were no problems within the coalition. Prime Minister Oli has since been using this statement as a reference point to claim that his government is moving ahead smoothly. The two leaders are meeting frequently, but that does not necessarily mean that everything is fine. Tensions could be gradually building between the two parties. A frequently asked question among the media is about the longevity of the government. This has created a public perception that the coalition could collapse anytime, even though it may not happen immediately. It has shaped a widespread belief that even a government formed by the two largest parties has failed to convey a message of political stability.

Amidst this uncertainty, Prime Minister Oli and Deuba held a one-on-one meeting on April 26, although neither side has disclosed what actually transpired. Rumors of government change last week prompted Deuba to call Oli and assure him that the NC’s support remains firm. However, their failure to effectively handle contentious issues has fueled doubts about the coalition’s future. Past examples show how even minor issues have triggered the fall of governments. For instance, it took a long time for the two parties to agree on removing Kulman Ghising from the post of executive director of the Nepal Electricity Authority. A more recent example is the delayed appointment of the Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank due to differences between the NC and UML.

Above all, internal dynamics within the NC pose a major threat to the coalition. The decision to form an alliance with the UML was made without prior discussions in the party; it was largely driven by Deuba and his spouse, Arzu Rana Deuba, who currently serves as the Minister for Foreign Affairs. As a result, many senior NC leaders do not fully own the decision, and two distinct camps have emerged within the party. Leaders such as Purna Bahadur Khadka, NP Saud and Prakash Sharan Mahat favored continuing the coalition with the Maoists and would prefer forming a new government led by the NC. Just a few days ago, Khadka said, “I have told Prime Minister Oli to mend ways and improve the government’s performance.”

Meanwhile, leaders like Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma are positioning themselves as populist figures aspiring to lead the party. Rather than offering unconditional support to the coalition, they view national issues through the lens of their personal political ambitions. For example, they have demanded that the government address the teachers’ demands, even though fulfilling them may not be feasible. At a public event this week, Thapa warned that the party would leave the government if it had to compromise on fundamental party principles.

Furthermore, Koirala and Thapa—both aspiring to become party president and future prime ministers—are working to prevent Deuba from becoming prime minister again. They fear that Deuba could use state power during the party leadership selection process to favor his loyalists. They believe that if the current coalition collapses, it would weaken Deuba’s chances of returning as prime minister. For some time, efforts have been underway to change the NC parliamentary party leader, but Koirala and Thapa themselves are not aligned, viewing each other as competitors for the party presidency—something that strategically benefits Deuba. In addition, there is speculation that some NC leaders are under pressure from India to break the alliance with the UML.

Adding to the complexity, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has reportedly conveyed to senior NC leaders that he is ready to support Deuba as prime minister until the next election, gradually winning over a section of the NC leadership. Deuba’s phone call to Dahal before his departure for Thailand also raised eyebrows within the UML. Previously, Deuba had publicly emphasized that the NC should lead the government, given its emergence as the largest party in the 2022 elections. However, Dahal had refused to support the NC’s claim and instead aligned with the UML to form the government.

Within the NC, there is growing criticism that the coalition between the two largest parties has failed to deliver on its promises. For example, although the two parties had agreed to initiate the process of amending the constitution, they have yet to take any steps. Senior NC leaders say that Prime Minister Oli’s failure to address the country’s pressing issues is fueling public frustration, which has tarnished the party’s image. One NC leader remarked, “We do not feel comfortable staying on in the government with the UML.”

Despite repeated assurances from Deuba, UML and Oli remain uncertain about the NC’s continued support. UML leaders say external forces are actively working to destabilize the government, and at some point, the NC might withdraw its support and form a new alliance with the Maoists, sidelining the UML. This week, Oli also stated that he would not compromise on every issue just to remain in power.

A decade has passed since a massive earthquake ripped through Nepal, but in Ram Bahadur Nakarmi's home the damage is still visible -- and so is the fear another might strike.

Ten years ago, on April 25, 2015, the ground beneath Nepal shuddered with a magnitude-7.8 earthquake, killing nearly 9,000 people, injuring over 22,000, and leaving millions homeless.

The disaster also reduced monuments to ruins, including centuries-old temples and royal palaces in the Kathmandu valley that attracted visitors from around the world.

Nakarmi's four-storey home in historic Bhaktapur city was damaged, but financial constraints made it impossible for him to rebuild.

The 61-year-old continues to live in his house despite the cracks.

"Even now, it is still scary," Nakarmi told AFP. "We are still feeling the tremors and they terrify us -- we run outside the house".

The aftermath of the quake exposed deep cracks in Nepal's disaster response system and the rebuilding efforts were initially hit by political infighting, bureaucracy and confusion.

Yet over the last decade, significant progress have been made.

According to official figures, nearly 90 percent of the homes destroyed have been rebuilt, alongside thousands of schools, health institutions, and public buildings.

Temples and cultural landmarks are also slowly rising again.

A joint assessment of affected districts by Nepal's National Society for Earthquake Technology, and the international Global Quake Model showed marked improvements for resilience in the face of another quake.

They estimated there had been a 44 percent reduction in the number of buildings at risk of complete collapse, after Nepal's rebuilding and retrofitting drive.

"Our initial years were focused on rebuilding. Now our focus should be in areas which were not affected in 2015 but are at risk of a quake," Dinesh Prasad Bhatt chief of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), told AFP.

"We have to extend the reach of lessons learnt from the earthquake to all parts of the country."  - 'Inadequate progress' -

The disaster was a wake up call for a country that is situated on a dangerous geological faultline, where the Indian tectonic plate collides with the Eurasian plate to form the Himalayas.

According to the UN, Nepal ranks 11th in terms of earthquake risk.

Experts question if the country is prepared for the next one.

In the decade since the quake, the country has taken important steps.

The NDRRMA disaster reduction and management authority was established, and building codes were updated to reflect seismic safety standards.

Unlike 2015, there are elected members at local levels responsible for mobilising rescue teams, volunteers and stockpiles of emergency resources in case of a disaster.

"If you really look into a holistic picture, compared to what we had back in 2015 and right now, we've made massive progress," said Anil Pokharel, a former NDRRMA chief.

"But still, it is inadequate given the kind of growing risks."

Experts say that while Kathmandu's skyline now includes more reinforced buildings, rural areas -- where infrastructure is weaker and access to resources limited -- remain exposed.

Only 9.4 percent of structures were revealed to be safe in a 2023 integrity assessment of nearly 29,000 buildings of schools, health centres and government offices across the country by the NDRRMA.

Implementation of disaster preparedness policies and building codes is also inconsistent.

"Nepal has made many policies learning from the 2015 quake experience, but policies are only pieces of paper that dictate the system," said Surya Narayan Shrestha, from the National Society for Earthquake Technology.

"To make the system itself effective, we need people... and systems that have that capacity."- 'Dangerously underprepared' -

David Sislen, the World Bank chief Nepal, said that despite better policies and institutional framework, the country remains "dangerously underprepared for a major disaster".

"Without stronger enforcement and implementation of risk reduction and mitigation measures, the physical footprint of vulnerability will continue to grow, putting people, services and assets are risk," Sislen said.

He added that there was a need for "a phased financing strategy for retrofitting schools, hospitals, and other vital infrastructure".

Records at the National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Center show that over 800 earthquakes with a magnitude of four or above have struck Nepal since the 2015 quake.

Every tremor takes Shri Krishna Chhusyabada, a quake survivor who lost three of his family members under the rubble of his house, back to the fateful day.

"It was a black day for us. That day took away all our happiness," Chhusyabada said. "I hope we never see such devastation again."

- AFP\ RSS

The cardinal rule of style is that your clothes must fit you well. A bad fit makes you look sloppy whereas a good fit makes you look appealing. It’s a small thing but the impact is huge. However, just wearing good clothes doesn’t ensure your look is complete. Even designer clothes can actually fall flat and look average if you don’t style it well. Here are some style rules that you must follow to look your best in every outfit.

Pair your outfit with the right shoes

Shoes can often make or break your outfit. Shoes should be practical and comfortable. But they should also match with your clothes, in terms of style and color. Ideally, you should have at least a pair of black heels, ankle length boots in a neutral shade, some ballerina flats, a nice pair of sneakers, and some great open toe sandals in your wardrobe. Dark shoes will kill an outfit if there is nothing dark in the ensemble to balance out its harshness. So pair dark clothes with dark shoes and lighter clothes with lighter shoes. Also, dresses and suits look good with heels while casual clothes work well with kitten heels, flats, or sandals. Shoes with pointy toes give an illusion of length to your legs and look better than those with rounded or flat toes.

Play with jewelry

Most of us wear the same rings or ear studs with every outfit. It seems like such a hassle to keep changing out of our regular ones to match with our clothes. But you are doing yourself a great disservice by not experimenting with jewelry. Dress up your outfit with pretty necklaces, earrings, bracelets, or rings. However, don’t go overboard with it and use many pieces together. Rather, choose to make one or two the highlight of your outfit. There are many brands these days that sell affordable jewelry, both real and imitation. Invest in pieces that make you feel comfortable and you feel good wearing and switch them up. We recommend Maya Handicraft Jewelry for some good quality silver pieces that are timeless and you can wear with pretty much anything. Palmonas, the Indian brand of demi-fine jewelry, owned by the Bollywood actor Shraddha Kapoor, also has some great designs.

Beautiful bags to elevate your look

Are you guilty of carrying the same bag day in and day out and only switching it up when it starts to fall apart or when the season changes and you feel like you need a bag that goes with it? Bags are great statement pieces and can really elevate your look if styled right. Most of us tend to buy black bags thinking it will go with everything but the overall effect tends to be a bit drag. Slouchy bags look good with casual wear while structured ones that hold form are great for office and a more formal look. If you can, don’t carry large bags with dresses and suits and they tend to take the impact away from your clothes. Choose simpler, smaller ones instead. Clutches or crossbody bags also go really well with dresses. There are many styles of bags available—from larger totes and hobos to smaller side bags and crossbodies—that you don’t have to stick to a particular one for all your outfits.

Experiment with your style

Most of us have a particular style of dressing depending on our preferences and we rarely, if ever, switch things up. But unless you experiment with your clothes and dressing sense you will not know what looks good on you and how you can change how you look and feel simply by changing the way you dress. You don’t have to make sudden or drastic changes. Start by making small alterations in the way you dress. If you aren’t a big fan of accessories, try adding a piece or two every now and then. A scarf, hat, or even a funky piece of jewelry that you wouldn’t otherwise wear can change your style. Look for fashion inspiration, online and around you. Try making a mood board of different styles. Once you feel confident with small changes, you can make bigger ones with fabrics, textures, and designs.

Neeraj Singh Manhas currently serves as the special advisor for South Asia at the Parley Policy Initiative, Republic of Korea, and is a subject matter expert at the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, Ministry of Defence, Government of India. He is also a non-resident visiting senior scholar at the Centre for National Security Studies, and an Editorial Board Member for World Water Policy, journal published by (WILEY-Scopus, Elsevier). He closely follows South Asia’s water and river geopolitics. ApEx talked to him about India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty and its implications for Pakistan and South Asia.

How does the suspension of the IWT affect Pakistan?

The Indus Waters Treaty has been crucial for Pakistan, as it regulates the flow of water from the Indus River and its tributaries, which are vital to Pakistan’s agricultural and energy sectors. Under the treaty, Pakistan was granted exclusive rights over the waters of three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—while India was allowed to use the waters of the eastern rivers. With India’s suspension of the treaty, Pakistan faces the possibility of having its water supply disrupted, which could lead to severe consequences for its agricultural output, as over 90 percent of Pakistan’s water needs are met by the Indus River. Eighty percent of Pakistan’s agricultural land—around 16m hectares—depends on water from the Indus system. 

Also, this system supplies water to over 237m Pakistanis. The major cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Multan get their water directly from this system. However, 25 percent of Pakistan’s GDP depends on this water, as that share of national income comes from agriculture. The agricultural sector supports 68 percent of Pakistan’s rural households—whose livelihoods are now under threat. Additionally, water shortages could affect hydroelectric power production, which contributes significantly to Pakistan's energy generation. The economic and environmental implications could be disastrous, especially for Pakistan’s rural population, which depends on these rivers for irrigation. This suspension risks destabilizing Pakistan’s food security and overall economy, especially as the country grapples with existing resource shortages.

What are the potential environmental and economic consequences for Pakistan?

The potential environmental and economic consequences for Pakistan are grave, as the Indus River system is not just a source of water but a lifeline for the country’s economy. With Pakistan relying on these rivers for nearly 70 percent of its total water supply, any disruption could lead to significant water shortages, especially in the agricultural sector, which employs a substantial portion of the population. The immediate effect would be felt in irrigation, with crops failing due to insufficient water. 

Additionally, Pakistan’s hydroelectric plants, which rely on the flow of water from the Indus and its tributaries, would face a decrease in power generation, exacerbating the already critical energy crisis. On the environmental side, lower water availability could lead to the degradation of ecosystems, affecting wetlands and biodiversity that depend on consistent water flow. Economically, this could lead to food shortages, price hikes, and social unrest, especially as millions of people depend on these resources for their livelihood.

How has Pakistan responded to the suspension?

Pakistan’s response to India’s suspension of the IWT has been one of strong condemnation. Pakistani officials have rejected India’s accusations and denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack. They have labelled India’s move as ‘cowardly’ and ‘immature’, claiming that it is an inappropriate and politically charged reaction that violates the spirit of the treaty. 

Pakistan’s foreign minister has called for an international response, urging global stakeholders to condemn India’s actions and mediate the dispute. The Pakistani government has warned of potential retaliation, emphasizing that such moves could escalate tensions further, potentially leading to military or diplomatic consequences. Given the sensitivity surrounding water issues in the region and the shared nature of the Indus River system, Pakistan fears that this could lead to long-term instability in the region. While Pakistan stresses that the treaty should remain intact, it has also warned that India’s actions could undermine future cooperation on regional water-sharing arrangements.

What are the broader implications for regional stability?

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty signals a worrying escalation in Indo-Pakistani relations, with far-reaching implications for regional stability. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed countries, and any escalation in tensions over the treaty could lead to further militarization of the conflict. The suspension not only undermines the environmental and economic cooperation that the treaty represents but also exacerbates an already fragile relationship between the two nations. The history of territorial disputes, especially over Kashmir, complicates any diplomatic efforts to resolve the water dispute. The disruption of such a critical agreement could lead to an arms race or proxy conflicts, further destabilizing South Asia. It also risks undermining international efforts to mediate and foster cooperation in the region, with the potential to draw in external actors, including major powers and international organizations like the United Nations, which could get involved to prevent further escalation.

Is there a pathway to de-escalate this crisis?

While the situation remains tense, there is a potential pathway to de-escalation, although it would require significant diplomatic effort from both sides. The role of international organizations, such as the World Bank, which was instrumental in brokering the original treaty in 1960, could be pivotal in facilitating dialogue between India and Pakistan. Both nations need to demonstrate a commitment to peace, moving away from retaliatory measures and focusing on finding a solution that ensures equitable water distribution. One possible avenue could involve third-party mediation, with the World Bank or the United Nations acting as facilitators for negotiations. Additionally, confidence-building measures, such as the exchange of information about water usage and infrastructure development, could help to rebuild trust. However, this would require both countries to prioritize long-term cooperation over short-term political gains. The resolution of the crisis will depend not only on diplomatic negotiations but also on both countries recognizing the importance of the treaty for regional peace and stability.