Submit your Article

How is this agrarian country faring in the midst of another paddy plantation season? The once fertile fields of the Madhes have the answer. 

Even in the midst of the monsoon, most of the paddy fields are lying barren in the province known as the grain basket of the country, thanks to a prolonged drought and a lack of irrigation facilities. 

This is not a new phenomenon, by the way. Drought conditions have been prevailing in Madhesh for (at least) about three years, leading to a serious scarcity of drinking water, leave alone water for irrigation. 

A couple of factors are behind this crisis situation. Erratic weather patterns resulting from climate change have played a huge part and so has the degradation of the Chure hills, thanks to an unchecked exploitation of the hills for construction materials like sand, boulders, and deforestation. Aware of the central role of the Chure as a source of water for the fertile fields of Madhesh as well as its burgeoning population, the government has a program dedicated to its conservation, but the efficacy of the program leaves much to be desired. 

The vital role of Madhes in feeding the whole country can be better understood by the fact that the province has 8,02,988 hectares of cultivated land, accounting for about 21.33 percent of total cultivated land (39,24,009 hectares) in the country. The province has 26.4 percent of the paddy fields and 26.56 percent (67,156 hectares) of the horticultural lands (2,52,818 hectares).  

How to revive the grain basket of the country? This is a crucial question before central, provincial and local governments. 

Farmers throughout the country, including in the Madhesh, have been relying on rains for cultivation since ancient times. Any government worth its name should be able to provide irrigation facilities to the farmers, in this day and age, if it is indeed serious about averting a famine. In an era of global warming and climate change, we would do well to opt more and more for less water-intensive crops. 

Also, the drought afflicting Nepal’s southern plains and beyond have laid bare a misplaced priority of the government. For decades, the government’s focus has been on transboundary water cooperation rather than on meeting domestic requirements of water for drinking, irrigation, navigation and green energy generation. 

The government should learn lessons from the parched fields and act accordingly. 

The long-standing comradely relationship between KP Sharma Oli and Bidya Devi Bhandari has soured. Soon after Bhandari openly challenged her removal from the post of party chair, the Central Committee of CPN-UML officially decided to bar the former head of state from active party politics.

Although UML leaders have defended the midnight decision, claiming it was made to uphold the sanctity of the presidential office, many within the party and the general public remain unconvinced. While it’s still unclear how this episode will unfold, Bhandari has signaled her intent to stay active in party politics. However, by denying her even an ordinary party membership, the UML has created a barrier for her to engage directly with party leaders and cadres.

Previously, there were assumptions that a fair number of party leaders and cadres might support Bhandari, but the Central Committee meeting told a different story. Only a handful of leaders stood by her, while the overwhelming majority sided with Oli, which is likely due to his current status as Prime Minister. Just two leaders, Surendra Pandey and Yubaraj Gyawali, opposed the party’s decision to bar Bhandari from political involvement.

Bhandari’s limited support within the party’s Central Committee poses a serious challenge to her ability to become politically active or pose a meaningful challenge to Oli, who retains a firm grip on the party. Oli is poised to secure a third consecutive term as party leader, barring any dramatic developments. In Bhandari’s absence, no leader appears willing to contest the party leadership at the upcoming general convention.

Meanwhile, within the Nepali Congress (NC), senior leader Shekhar Koirala has been meeting with both ruling and opposition party leaders, though the reasons remain unclear. Prime Minister Oli, however, reportedly views these meetings as attempts to unseat his government. Seven NC second-rung leaders also held a luncheon at Prakash Man Singh’s residence, but the meeting failed to generate any notable impact within the party.

Koirala has separately met opposition leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal and former President Bhandari. He has grown increasingly vocal in criticizing the government, arguing that UML is attacking the core values of the NC and that the party should withdraw from the coalition. Some speculate that Koirala is positioning himself to become prime minister by dismantling the current coalition. However, he lacks the numbers needed to become the parliamentary party leader. Koirala believes that if he can ascend to the premiership before the party’s general convention, he could influence the party’s internal elections.

Several key bills related to land, education, and the Constitutional Council have become contentious issues among coalition partners. Serious differences persist between NC and UML on these matters, and while they may not immediately threaten the coalition, they are a source of growing friction. Senior leaders from both parties are engaged in ongoing discussions, but efforts to bridge the divide have thus far failed. NC leaders are also pressuring President Ram Chandra Poudel to reject the bill concerning the Constitutional Council.

UML is under public scrutiny for its apparent double standards on the “cooling-off” period in the Civil Service Bill. While some of its National Assembly members support removing this provision, both the NC and the CPN (Maoist Center) are firmly opposed to any compromise. In a previous incident, the bureaucracy altered a draft bill passed by the House of Representatives, prompting the formation of a probe panel to investigate.

Within the Maoist Center, the rift between party chair Dahal and Janardhan Sharma is deepening. Sharma is reportedly trying to form a rival faction within the party. Recently, he publicly remarked that apart from Manmohan Adhikari, all communist leaders have engaged in the accumulation of vast wealth, a comment that has irritated Dahal. While several second-tier leaders are seeking a change in leadership, Dahal remains unwilling to step down.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, once in the national spotlight, is now mired in internal disunity. Senior leaders like Dhawal Shumsher Rana and Prakash Chandra Lohani have criticized party chair Rajendra Lingden for alleged bias against party members and cadres. Senior leader Rabindra Mishra, however, remains silent amid the growing intra-party conflict.

This week, media reports suggested that Prime Minister Oli is planning an official visit to New Delhi. Some outlets have speculated on possible dates, but officials have yet to confirm details. Nonetheless, both countries have recently discussed important matters such as mutual legal assistance and an extradition treaty.

The government has declared Madhesh Province a disaster-affected zone due to a prolonged drought that has severely impacted drinking water supplies, irrigation, and agriculture. Climate change is dramatically reshaping life in the region, from drying springs to plummeting rice yields. Locals say they feel increasingly estranged from the very elements that once sustained them. “Neither the rice feels like ours anymore, nor the water,” many say, as parched fields and vanishing water sources force families to walk miles just to collect a single bucket.

Nepal’s economy in the fiscal year 2024/25 exhibited signs of a guarded but meaningful rebound, marked by notable shifts in trade patterns, rising consumption of key commodities, and strong export performance. While criticisms continue to mount regarding the government’s inability to roll out bold economic initiatives, market behavior and trade data present a story that hints at renewed momentum.

One of the most significant indicators of this evolving economic landscape is the overall expansion of Nepal’s international trade. The total trade volume grew by 19.24 percent compared to the previous year, a strong indicator of increased commercial activity despite political and administrative inertia. Imports during this period reached Rs 1.804trn, a 13.25 percent rise from the previous fiscal year’s figure of Rs 1.592trn. Although a double-digit increase in imports would generally raise alarms in an economy known for chronic trade deficits, this year’s data must be read in the context of a simultaneous and historic rise in exports.

Exports for the fiscal year hit a record Rs 277bn, an impressive 81.8 percent surge from Rs 152bn in 2023/24. This steep rise in export volume represents the strongest performance on record and suggests that Nepal’s export capacity is beginning to respond to global market opportunities, logistical improvements, or perhaps increased value-added activity in key sectors. Interestingly, a substantial portion of this export growth is attributable to processed soybean oil, which Nepalese traders import in crude form from third countries and refine for export, primarily to India. This particular trade mechanism, while increasing both import and export volumes, has had the net effect of raising overall trade engagement and foreign exchange earnings.

Petroleum products continue to play an outsized role in Nepal’s import basket, both as a necessity and a source of government revenue. Total petroleum imports in 2024/25 amounted to Rs 274.27bn. Diesel led the chart with 1.47m kiloliters imported, valued at Rs 128bn, an increase of nearly 55,000 kiloliters from the previous year. Petrol followed closely at 746,420 kiloliters worth Rs 64.12bn, and aviation fuel imports rose to 210,012 kiloliters, valued at Rs 18.79bn. LPG gas consumption, another critical indicator of household energy demand, hit 5.55bn kilograms, translating to an import value of Rs 62.58bn.

What makes these figures particularly noteworthy is the inverse relationship between global petroleum prices and domestic consumption. Despite falling prices on the international market, Nepal’s import volume increased substantially, suggesting robust domestic demand. This reliance, while generating significant revenue of Rs 120.57bn in petroleum-related taxes, also underscores the country’s vulnerability to global price fluctuations and its continued dependence on fossil fuel imports.

The import composition further reveals evolving consumption patterns. While diesel remained dominant, an unusual and noteworthy rise was observed in the import of crude soybean oil, which surpassed petrol in value at Rs 108.95bn. These two commodities were the only ones with imports exceeding Rs 100bn, emphasizing their critical role in the current trade structure. Meanwhile, imports of smartphones, now ranked sixth in value, reflect a growing appetite for tech consumption among Nepali consumers.

Month-wise import trends revealed fluctuating demand, with peak imports recorded in the middle of the fiscal year and a decline toward the end. For instance, imports stood at Rs 170bn in mid-May to mid-June but dropped to Rs 160bn in mid-June to mid-July. Part of this decline is attributed to the closure of the Rasuwa customs point, a vital trade gateway with China, due to flooding.

A similar pattern emerges in the automotive sector, which appears to be undergoing a modest but clear revival. The import of electric passenger vehicles increased by 14 percent, reaching 13,578 units valued at Rs 31.76bn. From this, the government collected Rs 19.7bn in revenue. The commercial EV segment witnessed even stronger growth, rising by 73 percent year-over-year with 3,813 units imported. These developments reflect both shifting consumer preferences and the likely impact of government incentives and global supply trends favoring electric mobility.

In the two-wheeler market, long regarded as a bellwether for middle-class consumption, the story is equally optimistic. Imports of motorbikes and scooters rose by 34 percent, with 201,000 units entering the country. The government earned nearly an equivalent amount of Rs 24.73bn in revenue from these imports alone. The rise in two/three-wheeled electric vehicles was also notable, with 29,437 units imported compared to 20,704 units the year before. Even fuel-based passenger cars showed a rise in demand, with 4,978 units imported in 2024/25, up from 4,246 the previous year.

These numbers offer a nuanced understanding of post-pandemic consumer behavior. Rather than a broad-based economic boom, Nepal appears to be experiencing targeted recoveries in segments such as transportation, technology, and household energy, with more modest gains in other sectors. Interestingly, this uneven recovery seems to be occurring largely independent of proactive government economic management. While critics have accused the administration of failing to implement impactful reforms or development programs, the market appears to be finding its footing nonetheless.

Beyond trade and consumption, the real estate market offers another dimension of economic recovery, particularly in high-value segments. Government data shows a spike in transactions involving premium properties in urban centers. Although the total number of property registrations slightly dipped in Asar compared to Jestha (55,524 compared to. 56,010), revenue collection told a different story. The government collected Rs 6.55bn in property transaction taxes in Asar, up by Rs 1.82bn from the Rs 4.72bn collected in Jestha. Compared to last year’s Asar, which generated only Rs 4.61bn from 46,179 transactions, this year’s data clearly indicates growth in the sale of higher-value properties.

This surge in property deals reflects rising investor confidence, likely driven by factors such as stable remittance inflows, limited alternative investment avenues, and increasing urban migration. It also highlights the potential of the real estate sector to act as a stabilizing force in Nepal’s economy, particularly in the absence of sustained industrial output or manufacturing-led growth.

All this growth occurred in a context where policy intervention was largely missing and government initiatives failed to inspire widespread confidence. The resilience of the market and the adaptability of consumers and businesses, rather than institutional action, have been the primary drivers of this recovery phase.

However, this growth comes with caveats. The rising dependency on petroleum imports, the fragile export base reliant on limited product categories, and infrastructure bottlenecks highlight the structural limitations that remain. To truly achieve sustained economic momentum, Nepal’s policymakers must move beyond passive observation and engage in strategic planning that strengthens domestic production, diversifies the export base, and builds climate-resilient trade infrastructure.

The CPN-UML has stated that the issue of former President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s party membership renewal has become ‘automatically inactive’. Speaking at a press conference held at the party’s central office in Chyasal on Wednesday, UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel clarified that as per the party statute, only the Central Committee can decide on membership renewal. Since the committee has established that there is no requirement for Bhandari to return to active politics, the question of membership does not arise.

“We decided that the ex-president should not return to politics. So, the issue of renewing her membership in her party is no longer relevant. We have shelved it,” Pokharel said. He said that Bhandari had submitted her membership renewal application and fee a year ago, but the matter was not disclosed but was kept secret until the internal debate took place. It became known only after Bhandari herself disclosed it.

“Since her honored previous position, it was viewed as a delicate issue. We did not wish to expose it without due deliberation. But as she publicly disclosed it, the party was forced to react,” Pokharel explained.

The UML has also contended that it is against the constitution for an ex-head of state to resume partisan politics. The party contends that Constitution of Nepal 2015 does not envision the active political stances taken by a ceremonial head of state, a symbol of national unity and neutrality, after retirement. “The Nepali democratic system envisions the President as a constitutional, not an executive head. So, returning to party politics after serving as President cheapens the office,” wrote a UML release.

The statement pointed out that Bhandari is a highly respected figure in Nepali politics and had behaved with dignity—both as a party member and as the President. She was even honored during UML’s Diamond Jubilee as a ‘Pride of the Republic’. But, citing constitutional values and precedence, the party concluded that allowing an ex-president to engage in partisan politics would cast doubt on their previous decisions and impartiality.

At the same time, General Secretary Pokharel claimed that the UML has not excluded anyone from running for leadership in the coming party convention. In reply to the rumors that recent amendments of the statutes—removing two-term and age-70 limitations—were made so as to provide KP Sharma Oli with uncontested leadership, Pokharel claimed the amendments were debated from an institutional point of view. “Anyone who fulfills the party’s requirements can run.” “The offer is open and democratic,” he said, adding that most members of the Central Committee consider Oli to be the most suitable to take the party through the next general elections.

The party’s ninth Central Committee meeting had concluded late Tuesday night after passing eight resolutions. The debate over Bhandari’s political role took up much of the meeting, and a minimal dissent was voiced. However, Oli concluded the meeting by announcing that Bhandari’s party membership issue had not been endorsed. The UML leaders warned that allowing a former president to return to party politics could set a negative precedent, potentially politicizing the constitutional office of the President.