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Having grown tired of Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s power politics and the constant maneuvering for a ‘magic’ number in parliamentary politics, the chiefs of the two major parties in the country, KP Sharma Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba, have sketched a new roadmap aimed at ensuring political stability at least until the next general election. In a rare display of parliamentary partnership, the two largest parties in the Parliament have agreed to form a government, though the formal agreement is yet to be made public officially. 

According to the agreement, the two parties will alternate leadership of the government between Oli and Deuba over a three-year period. Oli will serve as Prime Minister for the initial half of the tenure, while Deuba will lead for the remaining period until the next general election. Ministries in the federal government will be equally divided, and the positions of chief ministers in the provinces will also be equally shared. Both the parties have also agreed to amend the constitution, especially on the electoral system though it is not an easy job.  

As per the agreement, the Nepali Congress has given a vote of confidence to the Chief Minister of Madhes Province from the CK Raut-led Janamat Party has joined the government there. In other provinces, UML ministers have resigned to facilitate the formation of new governments. Following the power-sharing agreement in the federal government, both the parties have endorsed the deal in their respective central meetings. Leaders of both parties are committed to implementing the agreement sincerely, despite facing various conspiracies and pressures from different quarters. This time, people have given both the parties the benefit of the doubt, overlooking the past.  

On July 12, Prime Minister Dahal is set to seek a vote of confidence in the parliament, though odds are stacked against him. Despite this, Dahal’s decision to face the parliament should be respected as a constitutional right of any Prime Minister. If Dahal had morality, he should have resigned immediately after the CPN-UML withdrew support to him. Shocked and traumatized by the Oli-Deuba alliance formed to sideline him, Dahal will again present himself as a ‘revolutionary’ and ‘progressive’ leader in revenge and might call movements from different fronts. This has been a hallmark of Dahal, who has made compromises with all parties and foreign powers to save his government. Whenever he quits government, he appears as a rebel, but such politics doesn’t work these days. While his next steps remain uncertain, he is likely to be relegated to a weaker position as the opposition leader, marking a turning point in the Maoist party’s decline.

Dahal’s failure to garner a trust vote means UML Chair Oli will become the Prime Minister of Nepal under Article 76 (2) of the Constitution. Some argue that Oli cannot be appointed Prime Minister under the same article again, but the Supreme Court has clearly ruled that the same article can be invoked multiple times if there is a possibility of government formation. Ultimately, it depends on the President under which article he calls upon the parties to form the next government. 

Let the law take its own course.

The major concerns now are political stability and the continuation of developmental works initiated during Oli’s second premiership from 15 Feb 2018 to 13 May 2021. As Oli prepares to become PM for the third time, a sense of hope has spread across the nation. Among Nepal’s contemporary politicians, Oli stands out as a leader with a vision and conviction, having earned the trust of the people. Therefore, the agreement between the two major parties to share power and have Oli lead the government has been seen as a beacon of hope as Nepali people are fed up with deceptive politics.

In the last parliamentary election, no party secured a majority to form the government, leading the third party to control the power dynamics with the so-called magic number. The leader of the third party, Dahal, alternately and deceptively led the government with support from the first and the second largest parties. However, his political maneuvering has come to an end, and he has now returned to the sidelines as a frail leader. Reflecting on this, his former colleague and now leader of a fringe party, Baburam Bhattarai, expressed his satisfaction thus: “You can’t fool all the people all the time.”

Some have speculated that external powers, particularly Western ones, played a role in uniting the two major parties, but these claims are unfounded and baseless. Certain intellectuals often suspect external interference in significant domestic developments, but this is merely a form of self-satisfaction. Neither neighboring countries nor Western nations such as the US contributed to bringing the two parties together. It was Oli and Deuba, who decided to sideline Dahal’s messy and opportunistic politics from within the domestic political landscape.

Foreign interference in Nepal’s internal affairs has significantly diminished compared to the past. Ambassadors from neighboring countries in Kathmandu have maintained diplomatic decorum, engaging with all stakeholders equally. However, political inconsistencies have negatively impacted diplomatic relations. With Oli likely to become the next PM, this temporary strain on diplomatic relations is expected to end. The government formed by the two major parties will be stronger and more stable, fostering harmonious relations with both neighboring and powerful countries while prioritizing Nepal’s national interests.

The new government will address the genuine concerns of India and China, but will also firmly warn them against any interference in Nepal’s domestic affairs. Oli’s administration will maintain a balanced foreign policy, ensuring that Nepal’s sovereignty and national interests remain paramount. Strengthening ties with both India and China, the government will work towards mutual cooperation, economic development and regional stability. Additionally, Oli’s leadership is anticipated to bring renewed focus to developmental projects and economic initiatives initiated during his previous terms. This will not only help boost domestic growth but also enhance Nepal’s strategic partnerships with neighboring countries and international allies.

But, this power alliance of Nepali Congress and CPN UML should not be limited only in form but in substance too. Cornering the CPN (Maoist Center) or Dahal shouldn’t be the sole goal of the alliance, it should inject hope and that should be seen in action, for action speaks louder than words.

Views are personal

Two-thirds of the House of Representatives members now support the agreement between the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML to form a national unity government, though the specifics of the agreement remain undisclosed. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s major coalition partners, the CPN-UML and other smaller parties, have withdrawn their support, leaving his government in the minority.

This situation puts pressure on Dahal to resign, which is being pushed by his own party and other political factions. However, Dahal has decided to seek a vote of confidence on July 12. According to cross-party leaders, Dahal is offering the premiership to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba to disrupt the NC-UML agreement. He has indicated that the Maoists are willing to support Deuba for a full term until the next elections in 2027. This offer was made the day after Deuba and UML leader Oli signed their agreement, but Deuba dismissed it.

Despite Deuba’s rejection, Dahal continues to reach out to NC leaders. Two days ago, he invited senior NC leader Shekhar Koirala to his residence for discussions. Koirala attended the meeting with the consent of Deuba. Sources say Koirala told Dahal that reversing the current situation is almost impossible. Even senior leaders within Dahal’s own CPN (Maoist Center) are advising him to resign, but Dahal insists there is still room for political maneuvering. After the NC-UML agreement, the Rastriya Swatantra Party decided to leave the government, but Dahal asked them to stay until the confidence vote.

There is some dissatisfaction within NC and UML ranks regarding the opaque agreement between Oli and Deuba, but no leader has openly criticized it. Both parties have unanimously endorsed the agreement. NC leaders believe Dahal’s efforts to form an alliance with UML are unlikely to succeed, despite his attempts. Some ambiguous provisions in the agreement might be exploited to prevent Oli from becoming prime minister, but it is almost certain that Oli will ascend to the position under Article 76(2) of the Constitution, which mandates a coalition government since no single party has a majority under Article 76(1).

Dahal and his allied constitutional experts argue that if Dahal’s government, formed under Article 76(2), fails to secure a vote of confidence, the President should initiate government formation under Article 76(3). This would mean appointing the parliamentary party leader of the largest party, likely Deuba. Neutral constitutional experts, however, assert that the government formation process should start under Article 76(2) again after July 12. If the government is formed under either Article 76(2) or 76(3), it is likely to face legal challenges, much like the 2021 Supreme Court verdict on Oli's dissolution of the House before its term ended. The verdict emphasized that all provisions of Article 76 should be tested to form a government.

The unexpected agreement between NC and UML has left Dahal, who had maintained power by striking a balance between NC and UML, in shock. He was confident that the rival NC and UML would not join forces. Additionally, Maoist leaders believed external forces would prevent Oli from coming to power. Dahal had been frequently changing coalition partners and was recently preparing to align with NC leaders again in the guise of forming a national unity government.

NC and UML were growing weary of Dahal's tactics, and there had been long-standing support within both parties for a coalition. The deteriorating economic conditions, frequent government changes, growing communal tensions and problematic constitutional provisions compelled the first and second largest parties to unite to address the country's challenges. The rise of new political parties also gave impetus to this unconventional alliance.

In this context, Dahal’s attempts to reverse the situation are unlikely to succeed. NC leaders state that Deuba is not willing to accept Dahal’s offer of the premiership. After nearly a decade, NC and UML are joining forces again, reminiscent of their successful collaboration in 2014 to deliver the Constitution in 2015. Now, they aim to form a strong government to resolve the current problems facing the country.

Nepali students have emerged as the fastest-growing student population in the United Kingdom, according to a recent report by ApplyBoard, an international student mobility platform, based on data from the UK Home Office.

For the year ending March 2024, the UK Home Office granted over 446,000 study visas to main applicants, a 6.2 percent decrease from the previous year. However, the number of visas issued to Nepali students increased dramatically. A total of 9,003 visas were issued to Nepali students, marking a 70.1 percent rise compared to the same period in 2023. This surge propels Nepal to the forefront of the UK’s international student market, surpassing several major countries and moving from the seventh fastest-growing country in 2023 to the fastest-growing source country in 2024.

Unlike many other countries, Nepal’s growth appears unaffected by recent UK policy changes concerning dependents or postgraduate work programs. This stability is a significant factor contributing to the increasing number of Nepali students choosing the UK for their higher education.

Nepal’s student-age population (16-25 years old) is over 6.5m, representing 21 percent of its total population. “This demographic presents a high growth potential, making Nepal an exciting prospect for the UK’s international education sector,” says ApplyBoard. “The report sheds light on the dynamic nature of international student mobility and emphasizes the significance of Nepal in the global education landscape. With ongoing stability and high growth potential, Nepal is undoubtedly a market to watch closely in the coming years.”

President Ramchandra Paudel recently paid an official visit to Germany and Switzerland, countries with which Nepal established diplomatic relations in 1958 and 1956, respectively. He also served as the keynote speaker at the ILO’s 112th International Conference. The timing of these diplomatic ties coincided with global instability and the Cold War. Nepal joined the ILO in 1966, during this period of geopolitical tension.

This visit, his first since taking office in March 2023, had been postponed due to a devastating 6.4 magnitude earthquake in November 2023. The earthquake, centered in the Jajarkot and Rukum districts of western Nepal, caused significant loss of life, injuries, and property damage. Consequently, President Paudel chose to remain in Nepal to support the affected families.

Reviving bilateral ties

High-level exchanges between Nepal and Germany and Switzerland had been absent for decades. The last significant visit from Switzerland to Nepal occurred twenty-seven years ago when President Arnold Keller paid an official visit from 9-12 Nov 1997. From Nepal’s side, late King Birendra visited Germany in 1986, which was reciprocated by President Roman Herzog in 1996. Before Herzog’s visit, President Heinric Luebke visited Nepal in July 1967, following the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1958. More recently, in June 2017, President Bidya Devi Bhandari visited Switzerland to address the 106th International Labour Conference on “World of Work Summit: A Better Future for Women at Work.” Given the close and friendly ties with these European nations, a high-level visit from Nepal’s head of state was long overdue and imminent.

Solidarity for social justice

Nepal joined the ILO in 1966, and President Paudel’s participation in the 112th International Conference was a key part of his visit. The conference theme was “Global Solidarity for Social Justice.”  At the inaugural session, ILO Director-General Gilbert F Houngbo welcomed President Paudel, highlighting his democratic credentials and his life-long struggle for democracy and social justice, which included over fourteen years of imprisonment under despotic rule. In his address, President Paudel affirmed Nepal’s commitment to the ILO’s international campaign and emphasized Nepal’s efforts in implementing international labor agreements. He noted that Nepal's constitution guarantees rights to employment, the formation of trade unions, and participation in collective bargaining.

President Paudel also addressed the challenges posed by the IT revolution, which has given rise to digital, gig, and care economies. He stressed the urgent need for safe and decent working conditions globally. Emphasizing the theme of social justice, he stated, “Without justice to the helpless and economic gains to the destitute, nations around the world can’t achieve the goal of Social Justice.” He also highlighted climate-induced socio-economic inequalities and the issue of climate refugees in Nepal, a topic also raised during COP26 in Glasgow. President Paudel’s voice on climate change and its socio-economic impacts was echoed by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in his address at the conference’s concluding session. President Paudel’s speech received a standing ovation from delegates, including government representatives, workers, employers, activists, and institutions dedicated to labor causes worldwide.

Broadening prospects of partnership

On June 12, President Paudel met with Swiss President Viola Amherd for bilateral talks in Geneva. After a brief exchange of pleasantries and introductions, President Amherd expressed satisfaction with the current state of bilateral relations. She emphasized that democracy, peace, and human rights are areas of interest for Switzerland and expressed a desire to see these areas flourish in Nepal. She also mentioned transitional justice as an area where Switzerland is interested in collaborating.

In response, President Paudel praised Swiss democracy and governance, highlighting the progressive provisions of Nepal’s constitution, particularly its inclusiveness and the 33 percent representation of women in the legislature. This aspect of Nepal's constitution impressed the Swiss side. President Paudel also discussed Nepal’s efforts toward socio-economic progress and prosperity following the establishment of a democratic system. The discussions covered mutual interests such as climate change and the need for enhanced assistance to Nepal after it graduates to a middle-income nation in 2026. President Paudel emphasized that while Nepal is least responsible for environmental degradation, it suffers significantly from climate change impacts. He suggested areas for Swiss investment, including agro-forestry, mountain tourism, and hydropower development, to aid Nepal’s socio-economic transformation. He also expressed gratitude for Switzerland’s continued support in Nepal’s socio-economic endeavors.

In Germany, President Paudel met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on June 17 at the presidential palace in Berlin. Nepal and Germany established diplomatic relations in 1958, and Germany began its development cooperation with Nepal in 1961, initially focusing on technical assistance. Over the past six decades, this relationship has expanded to include scientific collaboration, academic exchanges, technology transfer, and cooperation in governance and democracy. More recently, the ‘Ausbildung’ or Dual Vocational Training program has provided employment opportunities for Nepali youth in Germany, which was a significant topic during the bilateral talks.

During their meeting, President Steinmeier praised Nepal for its support for Ukraine at the UN and expressed concern over the recruitment of Nepalis by the Russian army. President Paudel addressed the climate crisis and its impact on resource-poor nations like Nepal. He also requested support for the release of six Nepalis held as prisoners of war by Ukraine and the lifting of the ban on Nepali airlines in European airspace.

Special gestures 

Throughout his visit, President Paudel was accorded state-level receptions, marked by significant gestures of goodwill from both his German and Swiss counterparts. In Berlin, President Steinmeier displayed a remarkable degree of humility and support, assisting President Paudel when he appeared momentarily frail during the guard of honor. This visit included a surprise one-on-one meeting between the two heads of state, during which they recalled their countries’ historic leaders, Willy Brandt and BP Koirala, who both had notable backgrounds in the struggle for social democracy.

In summary, President Paudel’s week-long official visit to Germany and Switzerland from 11-19 June 2024, significantly reinvigorated Nepal’s bilateral relations with these European nations. His participation in the ILO’s 112th International Conference reinforced Nepal’s solidarity with the ILO’s campaign for “Global Solidarity for Social Justice.” Throughout his visit, President Paudel highlighted the progressive aspects of Nepal’s constitution, including its inclusive character and the constitutional guarantee of 33 percent representation for women in the national legislature. He also solicited enhanced support from these friendly nations for Nepal’s post-2026 challenges.

President Paudel’s meaningful participation at the ILO conference and his bilateral engagements emphasized the global need for climate justice and highlighted Nepal's ongoing socio-economic challenges and aspirations. His interactions with entrepreneurs and stakeholders in the environment and SME sectors broadened the prospects for future partnerships, underscoring Nepal’s commitment to socio-economic transformation and its dedication to a socially just world. The official visits not only strengthened Nepal’s bilateral relations with Germany and Switzerland but also enhanced its international standing and reinforced its commitment to the ILO’s goals.

The author is foreign relations advisor to President Paudel