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The frequent change of governments has been an usual phenomenon in Nepal. The country has not been able to see political stability even after promulgating the new constitution and holding two periodic elections. Although Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been at the helm of government since the November 2022 elections, despite his party finishing a distant third in the parliamentary polls, he has reshuffled cabinet 18 times by changing his coalition partners. In this scenario, the recent agreement between the two largest parties in the House of Representatives, Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, to form a coalition government offers some hope for a more stable future. 

The 2015 constitution, which has been hailed by Nepali leaders as among the best in the world, has contributed to political instability. No single party has been able to secure a clear majority, leading to a series of fragile coalition governments. The agreement between the two major parties to form a consensus government by bringing other parties on board, however, signals a shift toward more stable governance. This agreement, which covers issues ranging from constitution amendments to the formation of a lasting government at both center and provinces, has raised optimism among Nepalis who have long yearned for political stability and economic progress.

The new government has some pressing issues to deal with. The two parties have pledged to form a committee to amend the constitution. The amendments should address all the issues that are hindering implementation of federalism. The coalition must work toward amending the constitution to address existing barriers and create a more effective governance structure. Completing the peace process through appropriate transitional laws is crucial for national reconciliation and stability. It has been one of the major contentious issues for the three major parties in parliament. Likewise, improving administrative efficiency and public services should be a top priority to restore public trust in the government. Once the political situation becomes stable, it is expected to spur economic activities and create jobs, which is essential to address the growing discontent among the people, particularly the youth.

The new coalition must rise above personal and party interests. This union of two largest parties in the country is not only crucial for domestic progress but also to present a strong front against increasing external influences that threaten Nepal's sovereignty. The success of this coalition could be the turning point that the country has long awaited, paving the way for sustainable development and renewed hope for the people.

Dear readers,

This week, the political landscape was dominated by a crucial agreement between the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML. These two parties have pledged to ensure much-needed political stability and to amend the 2015 Constitution to address certain “flawed provisions.” We covered this agreement from multiple angles, including a long-form article titled “The Story Behind the Formation of a New Coalition,” which explains how and why the two parties came together. We appreciate our readers’ enthusiastic response to this story. Additionally, we published a commentary titled “Can the NC-UML Alliance Bring Stability?” which questions the longevity of the to be formed government, given the parties’ past difficulties in working together.

The full text of the agreement signed by NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-UML leader KP Sharma Oli has not yet been made public. With the UML pulling out its support, the Pushpa Kamal Dahal government has been relegated to the minority, but he is refusing to step down. Dahal may use constitutional provisions that allow him to face parliament within 30 days. 

Meanwhile, there are widespread concerns about the contents of the proposed constitutional amendments by NC and UML, particularly among Madhes-based parties and other groups advocating for identity politics. There are also questions about which external forces may be influencing these political developments. Speculations abound, but no definitive answers are available. Rumors suggest that Dahal’s refusal to resign might be influenced by external advice, allowing time for preparations to continue the current coalition with Deuba as prime minister. Attempts to find clues in Indian and Chinese media were inconclusive.

The agreement between Deuba and Oli has been endorsed by both parties, but it has caused some dissatisfaction as well. NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa was initially opposed but has since accepted the agreement. Similarly, there are reservations within UML, but both Deuba and Oli have a strong grip on their parties, making significant disruptions unlikely.

In another development, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which emerged from the 2022 national election, is facing an internal crisis. Party Chairman Rabi Lamichhane and General Secretary Mukul Dhakal are at odds, with Lamichhane expelling Dhakal for allegedly violating party discipline. Dhakal’s symbolic protest at a party meeting, where he taped his mouth to give a message that there is no freedom of expression in the party, highlights the issue of intra-party democracy, a common issue in all political parties of Nepal.

Now onto some positives. Despite these political challenges, there has been progress in concluding the transitional justice process. The NC, UML, and the Maoist Center have formed a cross-party mechanism to address remaining contentious issues of the constitution. This team consisting of Ramedh Lekhak from NC, Mahesh Bartaula from UML, and Janardhan Sharma from the Maoist party has already started its work. The transitional justice process, initiated on the basis of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, 2006, remains incomplete, but there are plans to endorse an amendment bill in the ongoing Parliament. However, new political developments could delay this process further.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continued to draw attention this week. Congress leaders reiterated their position against taking loans under the BRI, which does not offer grant provisions. Additionally, Parliament has formed panels to investigate alleged corruption in the construction of Pokhara and Bhairahawa International Airports. Meanwhile, the Nepal government has published a concept note on the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and needs to accelerate efforts to regulate AI, a topic that still lacks widespread understanding in Nepal.

This week, the infamous fake Bhutanese refugee scandal once again made national headlines with the arrest of Bechain Jha and Pratik Thapa, the son of former home minister Ram Bahadur Thapa. This marks a significant step in the investigation involving former ministers, their relatives and senior government officials. Cooperative scandals also made headlines this week, with police arresting many cooperative owners based on public complaints. A probe panel has been set up to investigate these cases. Home Minister Lamichhane has assured to investigate all past high-profile corruption cases. But the latest political alliance between NC and UML means Lamichhane’s days as home minister are numbered.

This week, CPN (Unified Socialist) led by former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal held its generation convention. The convention unanimously elected Nepal as party chairman and Ghana Shyam Bhushal as general secretary. The same set of leaders have returned as party office-bearers. Bhushal’s attempt to displace Nepal has turned futile. The NC-UML agreement at the center has started to impact the provincial government. For instance, UML has withdrawn the support to the Sudurpaschim government. 

I will be back with more updates next week. Wishing you all a happy weekend!

Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has decided to discuss the issue of Mukul Dhakal, general secretary of the party, gagging himself at the recently-held central committee meeting of the party. RSP decided to discuss the matter in its official meeting hours after it hit the headlines, much to the discomfort of the party.

Dhakal had sought a live telecast while presenting the review report at the central committee meeting. However, as most of the party members reportedly opposed his demand, Dhakal protested by taping his mouth over the violation of the right to expression. 

The party’s secretariat meeting held on Tuesday had decided to allow Dhakal to present the report. But later Rabi Lamichhane nixed the decision, after which joint general secretary Kabindra Burlakoti presented the report.

The RSP’s disciplinary committee has sought clarification from Dhakal for leaking the report to the media.

Dhakal had prepared the report after traveling across 39 districts and interacting with party leaders and cadres in 39 districts as per an RSP directives in the wake of a poor showing by the party’s candidate Milan Limbu in the recent by-elections held in Ilam-2. The idea behind the order was to catch the pulse of the electorate.    

Dhakal’s report has concluded that RSP cannot become a national party if it does not mend ways. 

The report has recommended the party to move forward with independent elected representatives such as Balen Shah and Gopi Hamal to improve its prospects in the next elections.

Like the rest of the world, Nepal faces numerous crises such as rising temperatures, wildfires, lack of drinking water malnutrition and a range of flood and drought occurrences. Records kept at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority show that 1,434 incidents of fire and forest fire were recorded in April-May, a period characterized by the highest number of fire incidents, causing 27 deaths and leaving 86 people injured. 

Additionally, cancer patients have been increasing by the day due to factors like improper use of chemicals and fertilizers. 

On one hand, farmers cannot transplant paddy due to lack of rainfall, while on the other, heavy rains destroy rice crops ready for harvest. Apart from rising temperatures, other factors like high input costs, wild animals on rampage, climate change and unfair share in agricultural products exert pressure on farmers to abandon farming. In order to deal with these contemporary crises, we need to increase our comparative advantage in production systems with the main focus on agroecology.

Agroecology

Agroecology is agriculture integrated with ecology. A production system in harmony with nature, it transcends the traditional practices of tillage, planting, cultivation, harvesting and marketing. Agroecology, according to Stephen R Gliessman, is not just limited to farming practices but deals with the whole chain of interactions among crops, soil organisms and insect pests, their natural enemies as well as environmental conditions and management decisions.

In conventional agricultural systems, there exists a clear distinction between agriculture and nature. In such systems, inorganic fertilizers and pesticides added into soil for increased productivity put microorganisms like bacteria and earthworms at risk, decreasing soil’s ability to rejuvenate. Soil scientist Claude Bourguignon however argues that soil, despite being life’s basis, is simply a substratum. Increased reliance on fossil fuels for agricultural operations and other efforts toward commercialization and modernization of the farm sector disrupts the natural rhythm of production. Furthermore, market forces through liberalization or trade also affect food agriculture dynamics.

Put together, agriculture, forestry and other land use amount to 22 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions with transportation adding a further 15 percent, according to some studies. It is an established fact that the production-centric traditional agricultural systems contribute enormously to greenhouse gas emissions and have low adaptive capacity to climate change.

Nepal is going through its hottest summer on record along with increased forest fires. A contrasting scenario is where severe droughts in winter have resulted in massive crop failure while the highest ever recorded rainfall has led to flood causing a significant loss of matured crops. Water shortage has gotten worse in the Tarai region with depletion of groundwater resources. 

Incidents of landslides and floods have been rising and our study indicates that 80 percent of Nepal’s population is vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Notably, Climate Risk Indexes (CRI) identifies Nepal as the 10th most affected country worldwide with marginalized communities, women and farmers forming a group highly susceptible to climate change impacts.

Commercialization

Subsistence agriculture constitutes a significant feature of our production system, with the exchange of surplus being a major characteristic. The key features of subsistence agriculture include mixed farming, proper integration of livestock, agriculture and forests as well as growing for consumption. Our traditional agricultural practices were diverse, exchange-based and synergetic. However, the introduction of monoculture, chemicals, pesticides and corporate-controlled seeds in the name of commercialization, production and development has made the entire agricultural system more vulnerable to climate change. Increased production costs resulting from this practice has forced small-scale farmers to leave farming altogether, exacerbating food insecurity.

Despite constitutional provisions on sustainable agricultural practices and on the integration of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into the government’s policies and programs, our main policy documents, including annual plans, policies and budgets prioritize chemicals-based farming practices instead of incorporating agroecology into climate adaptation and tourism development or supporting farmers to stay on their farms.

The policies and programs for the fiscal year 2024-25, presented recently in the Parliament, list “increase in power generation and creation of a more conducive environment for investment” as some of the major achievements of the incumbent government. The focus, at least on paper, is also on delivery of fertilizers and seeds on time, and on expanding irrigation services. 

The policy document of the government pledges to increase agricultural investments, attain food self-sufficiency in vegetables and main staple crops, provide insurance coverage for agri-products, apart from promising minimum support price (MSP), farmer cards and emphasizing a productivity-centered modern industrial agriculture, but these pledges are “old wine in a new bottle”.

This document does not seem to bother much about agroecology, which is about promoting organic farming, biodiversity protection, natural farming and indigenous crops. 

It supports organic agriculture and indigenous crop production only for business purposes, which goes against the principle of agroecology. Additionally, there is a provision to provide quality chemical fertilizers for sustainable soil quality management, a practice akin to administering poison to a patient.

Summing up, agroecology can help solve several problems plaguing the farm sector like food insecurity, climate crisis, desertion of farmers due to increased cost of production, increasing import of foodgrains and agricultural goods, decrease in soil fertility due to input-intensive agriculture and increased use of chemical fertilizers. Let this fact dawn on our leaders, policymakers and bureaucrats before it’s too late.