The reality of negotiations in a highly volatile context

That Bipin Joshi’s fate was an excruciating personal affront and experience culminating in an unimaginable denouement is unquestionable. His family’s natural concern ending in Bipin’s untimely demise is likewise heartbreaking. My sincere condolences and prayers to them all!

Yet, as tragic as Bipin’s passing is, and as troubling as successive governance of Nepal has been, one ought not—I would even say one cannot—ascribe all blame on the government, the nation, or diplomacy per se, as some writers have done. But I am not blaming them: this has been a flaming, contentious, protracted and emotional issue which—nonetheless-should be cautious with any criticisms.

The external affairs ministry of each citizen’s home country has the prime responsibility to find the right connections and to employ the appropriate mechanisms to seek release of particular hostages. And--whether we like it or not—some countries have more clout than others as a result of experience, connections, funding, effort and cultural insights.
The Government of Nepal’s situation and efforts should be understood in proper context: not as an excuse, rather as the reality within a Gordian Knot of expectations.

Specifically, as can be expected, the government faced emotional entreaties by immediate family as well as supporters and broader public. Diverse levels of ministerial and bureaucratic experience and competence vis à vis hostage negotiation within a highly vicious environment confronted government, demanding:

  • Focused ability to deal with unexpected events emanating from official international relationships and practices.
  • Focused reliance on personal, sustained propinquity with similar level authorities in all countries which may host Nepali students and workers.
  • Ability to directly deal with extreme conflict scenarios, combined with a willingness to search for, enlist and learn from knowledgeable and suitable experts from outside the government. Naturally, there must already be an a priori vetted list of suitable people, though additional focused specialists may also be called on.
  • Intense ethnocultural and religious insights.

In this specific circumstance, it was incumbent on the government, i.e. relevant Minister, Ambassador, allied diplomats and related experts, to have sought connections in other countries which have communication with Hamas, while recognising that Gaza also has other militant groups (i.e. Palestinian Islamic Jihad; Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; Astal Militia; Abu Shabab militia) with whom few countries can claim communication. Twelve other countries also had their citizens killed, injured or abducted; and some were better prepared to undertake presumably lengthy efforts to retrieve their nationals.

Diplomacy within such an egregious, volatile conflict can be extremely complicated. Unrelenting internal pressure within Israel to get its own hostages out first is an unenviable but necessary focus by its government. Thus, the context was complex, tragic, and heartbreaking; as of now, it still remains unstable.
Some countries have had much more intensive and/or longer-term collaboration with Israel than others, with several being more strident in their efforts.
Whoever may have been officially involved in seeking the release of Nepalis was therefore up against any combination of:

  • Parties at war prioritising their own when seeking release of hostages or prisoners.
  • Realisation that, at best, only a few might be released at any one time.
  • Closer relationships with Israel by some other nations, with some exerting extreme pressure that only their status, relational longevity and skills could support.

Few negotiations, if any, have been straight forward, and encompassed some combination of:

  • Dealing directly with Israel
  • Dealing directly with another country that had better connections with and/or within Israel
  • Dealing directly with another country that had connections with Hamas (e.g. USA and Qatar. Thailand also had official talks with Hamas by a group coordinated by parliamentary speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha. The group conveyed to Hamas that the citizens were not party to the conflict, but instead part of the around 30,000 Thai laborers who work in the Israeli agriculture sectors. While some had been captured, about 39 were killed in the attacks and about 8,600 repatriated to Thailand). It should be noted that Wan Noor, being an Islamic scholar, may have had advantages. How many other countries’ representatives had thought of having a Muslim expert on their team?
  • Dealing directly with Hamas.

Most difficulties actually arise once the preceding is determined, i.e. the (or an) appropriate intermediary or direct contact group is verified. That aspect confirmed, priorities become development of trust via a patient, step by step process of considerable preparation. A snippet of this (Infinity Loop for Optimising Development of Empathy) was outlined in the 1993 updated edition of my book “Fancy Footwork: Entrapment in and Coping with the Nepali Management Model” (Ratna Pustak Bhandar; Kathmandu). Most importantly, this is not a one-day process, rather an iterative effort, building upon hours and days of calm exchanges, slowly evolving trust by building mutual rapport and understanding of each other’s perspective.

Some have suggested that one's religion prevented the ‘Western world’ from caring about a Hindu captive. Such a perspective is unfair, as there were hostages from 13 countries and many—of various religions—died in custody, let alone in the Oct 7 attack at Be’eri. Finding avenues for obtaining release of any hostage is, and has been, a very complex affair.

Other criticism exists regarding allowing students to travel and work in conflict-prone areas instead of prioritizing citizens’ safety. In this sense, Israel has actually provided many Nepalis with earning and learning opportunities whilst engaged in normally safe and useful work. Over 30 years ago Israel had established a highly securitized border which, while having proved to have been exceptionally effective, unfortunately became lax; and the IDF admitted to gross human errors by neglecting intelligence reports. Immediately after the incursion, Israel evacuated 200,000 people from border areas shared with the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. In this respect, acknowledgement must be afforded to the GoN for having precautionarily flown out from Israel, within 4 days of the incursion, over 300 of its citizens.

But even a few interior areas distant from Gaza—Eilat, Tel Aviv, even Jerusalem—had drone and rocket attacks. Thus the area of the students’ work had remained safe up to Oct 7.

But if such restrictions were to be formalised, how would the government have prevented over 5000 Nepali (mainly construction) contract workers dying in certain Asian countries; and over 70 Nepalis recruited—some surreptitiously—by Russia, dying in the war with Ukraine. How much effort has the government made to stem such enticements to its citizens? What alternatives currently exist to satisfy a decent living for the families of these citizens? Again, while I am not absolving GoN, the complexity of negotiating in a context of extreme violence demands the symbiotic consideration and understanding of the above points.

Winter brings choking air crisis

As the cold winds of winter sweep across Nepal, a familiar haze begins to settle over the cities. The dry air of winter traps dust and smoke close to the ground, turning the sky gray and the air heavy. With ongoing construction and unfinished roads scattered across the country, the dust rises and lingers, worsening the situation. Winter, which should be a season of calm, becomes a season of smog and sickness. The situation is more intensified now as the rain stopped and the roads’ dust started to rise more.

According to the State of Global Air (SoGA) 2025 report, air pollution caused 41,300 deaths in Nepal in 2023. Even more alarming, 85 percent of these deaths were linked to noncommunicable diseases such as heart and lung disease, lung cancer, diabetes, and dementia. The report also revealed that air pollution has now become the leading risk factor for deaths in Nepal, surpassing tobacco and high blood pressure. Around the world, 7.9m deaths were attributed to air pollution in 2023, showing just how serious this issue has become.

In Nepal, pollution levels are closely tied to changes in weather. The colder and drier months always see the worst air quality across major cities. According to the Air Quality Index (AQI), Kathmandu now ranks 46th among the world’s most polluted cities, with a moderate rating, while Delhi, India, continues to top the list. This shows how winter brings not only cold winds but also a blanket of harmful air that affects everyone, especially children and the elderly.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025 ranks pollution as the sixth and tenth most pressing global risk in the short term (two years) and long term (10 years).

To address this growing problem, the government has started to implement plans to reduce air pollution during the winter months. Efforts include stricter monitoring of construction sites to control dust, encouraging the use of electric vehicles, and testing emissions from older vehicles. Authorities have also banned the open burning of waste and are promoting tree plantation campaigns to help absorb pollutants. Public awareness programs are being run to educate people about the dangers of air pollution and the need to reduce activities that contribute to it, such as burning firecrackers and waste.

Prakash Lama, program coordinator at Clean Air Network Nepal (CANN), explained that the organization has been actively working to mitigate air pollution through various programs, campaigns, and awareness initiatives. He emphasized that air pollution poses a serious threat to human health and requires collective effort to address.

CANN has been conducting awareness programs in schools and at the community level to educate people about the dangers of air pollution and to encourage individuals to take responsibility in reducing it. The organization also spreads awareness through radio programs and by mobilizing mass movements to engage the public more effectively.

CANN also organizes health campaigns where the lungs of children and elderly people are checked to assess the impact of air pollution on vulnerable groups. In addition, the organization has been monitoring air quality in various locations across the country by installing air quality monitoring devices, with support from the government, in most of the provinces, residential areas, and industrial zones.

According to Lama, one of the main reasons for high air pollution in the Kathmandu Valley is its geographic structure. Because the valley is surrounded by hills, air circulation is restricted, trapping pollutants within the area. During winter, the air becomes dry and rainfall decreases, worsening the pollution levels. Lama added that forest fires, vehicular emissions, and industrial dust also significantly contribute to the problem.

He noted that around 35–40 percent of air pollution in the valley is caused by transboundary pollution (pollutants that come from outside the region). In the Tarai region, this figure rises to nearly 70 percent, showing that cross-border pollution plays a major role in deteriorating air quality.

Dan Bahadur Waiba, an inDrive rider, shared that riding becomes extremely difficult on dusty days, and the situation worsens during winter. At times, he said, it even becomes difficult to keep his eyes open while riding. During winter, Waiba added, it’s often challenging to tell the difference between fog and dust, as the air turns thick and visibility drops significantly.

At the policy level, Lama pointed out that although the government has introduced regulations setting timelines for vehicle use and prohibiting older vehicles, these rules are not being properly enforced. 

Lama emphasized the need for the government to prioritize the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) and make their adoption a major national agenda. Reflecting on the past, he recalled the use of trolley buses in Kathmandu, which were environmentally friendly, and expressed concern that Nepal seems to have moved away from such sustainable solutions in favor of market competition in the automobile sector.

Meanwhile, Waiba is planning to switch to an electric scooter after learning more about air pollution and vehicle emissions at an event he attended. He shared that the experience made him realize the importance of individual action in addressing environmental issues. Waiba expressed his belief that real change is possible when people become aware, learn, and choose to act responsibly.

Locals in Bhaktapur expressed frustration over the ongoing and incomplete road construction in several areas, including Suryabinayak Road, Sanga Road, and parts of Kavre. Residents living along these roads said that the constant dust has made daily life extremely difficult. Many shared that it has become hard to even stay inside their homes, as they need to clean their rooms every single day to keep the dust away.

They added that the situation is likely to worsen during winter, when there is little rainfall and dust levels are expected to rise further. The locals have urged the concerned authorities to speed up the construction work and take necessary measures to control dust and pollution in the area.

It doesn’t only hamper the residents but also human health which can cause many diseases. Research finds that air pollution reduces life expectancy by 3.4 years for the average Nepali and causes approximately 26,000 premature deaths annually. In addition to health, air pollution impacts labor productivity, tourism, and the aviation sector. The economic cost of poor air quality is equivalent to more than 6 percent of Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year, according to the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI).

Recently, the Department of Environment collaborated with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and launched the country’s first National Air Quality Management Action Plan (NAQMAP).  It marked a major step in Nepal’s broader effort to reduce air pollution nationwide and to establish a comprehensive framework for managing and improving air quality.

However, experts say that much more needs to be done. Clean fuels, reliable public transport, and strict enforcement of environmental laws are essential to bring lasting change. Reducing air pollution is not only the government’s responsibility but also a duty shared by every citizen.

 

Creating conducive environment key challenge for March 5 polls

Except for the CPN-UML, most major political parties have not opposed the March 5 elections to elect the new House of Representatives. All major parties generally agree that holding elections is the only viable way to end the ongoing political and constitutional deadlock.

The UML, however, has proposed an alternative political roadmap that calls for the restoration of the dissolved House, arguing that the current environment is not conducive to holding elections. The party has also branded the Sushila Karki-led government as “unconstitutional.”

The Nepali Congress (NC), though seemingly in favor of elections, remains ambiguous in its position. The party is currently entangled in internal disputes over convening its General Convention to elect new leadership. Acting party president, Purna Bahadur Khadka, appears more aligned with KP Sharma Oli’s proposal for restoration, while general secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, who favor elections over reinstatement, are reportedly in secret talks with Prime Minister Karki to create an environment conducive to polls.

The March 5 election timeline is looking increasingly difficult, both politically and in terms of security. There is a deep trust deficit between Prime Minister Karki and the top leaders of major parties. Karki is reportedly hesitant to hold formal meetings with them, fearing backlash from GenZ protesters who have accused the political class of manipulation and betrayal.

Talks between the government and political parties have begun, but largely for show. Only lower-ranking party leaders are participating, and Baluwatar is quietly engaging with less influential figures within major parties who lack decision-making power. Among the top leaders—KP Sharma Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal—Deuba is currently abroad for medical treatment, while the other two remain in Kathmandu.

The Karki administration faces particular difficulty in engaging with Oli, who remains controversial due to the killing of 19 students during his tenure as prime minister. Karki is under pressure from Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah to arrest him, while the UML demands that the government revoke its decision restricting Oli’s foreign travel. UML leaders insist they cannot participate in elections while their party chair remains confined to the Kathmandu Valley.

Karki has also not reached out, at least publicly, to NC’s acting president Khadka or Maoist chair Dahal. Both leaders, insiders say, ignore the advice of their representatives attending meetings at Baluwatar. As such, real negotiations between the government and major parties have yet to begin. No formal dialogue has taken place among the three key political forces—the NC, UML, and CPN (Maoist Center).

Engaging with GenZ protest groups poses another challenge, as there is no unified leadership structure. With over two dozen groups claiming representation, neither the government nor the Election Commission has been able to hold substantive consultations with them.

Meanwhile, the government is preparing election-related policies and bylaws without meaningful consultations with political parties or with youth groups. Despite being formed in response to the protestors’ demands, the Karki administration has failed to reach any agreement with them to ensure a conducive electoral environment. As a result, the political climate remains far from ready for polls.

Security is another major concern. The government and Election Commission are in talks with security agencies to draft a comprehensive security blueprint. The Nepal Army’s role is expected to expand during the elections, though the exact modality remains undecided. The Nepal Police, already short on arms and ammunition, was further weakened during the Sept 8–9 GenZ protests. The government is considering seeking logistical assistance from India and China, but it remains uncertain whether that will be sufficient.

Even if the government manages to create a secure environment, political parties are not yet convinced that election campaigns can proceed safely. The police have yet to recover weapons looted during the protests. Youth wings of major political parties and several self-proclaimed Gen-Z groups remain in a confrontational mode. Unlike the largely peaceful 2022 national elections, the current context poses new and unpredictable security threats.

Time, meanwhile, is running out. Only 120 days remain before the March 5 deadline. If the government and parties reach an agreement soon, the EC could technically conduct the elections within 70–80 days. But given the current political trends, rapprochement between the government and major parties appears increasingly difficult.

Across all three major parties, establishment factions maintain firm control, making intra-party dialogue with rival groups largely symbolic. Beyond the NC, UML, and Maoists, other parties, such as the Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, have yet to even begin preparations for the polls.

 

Beyond governments: Coding the next revolution

It began like a spark—a few viral posts, a digital storm of frustration—and then, in less than 48 hours, entire governments fell in Nepal. Similar protests, revolts and revolutions are erupting across continents, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and beyond. What once took decades of blood and barricades, this new generation accomplished with hashtags, livestreams and open-source strategy.

To the older world, it looks impossible—even suspicious. Surely, some whisper, there must be a “deep state” behind it. Surely, no revolution can succeed without a charismatic leader, a party or a manifesto. They forget: this is not history repeating itself—this is history rewriting itself. GenZ is not waiting for a leader. They are the leader—collectively.

The death of representation

For centuries, humanity has lived under the illusion of representation — governments, kings, parties and parliaments all claiming to “speak for the people.” In reality, they spoke over the people—governing through distance, hierarchy and fear. The digital age shattered that illusion. Technology has exposed what was once hidden—the corruption, the manipulation, the spectacle of power feeding upon itself. The youth who grew up online, whose first teachers were memes, open data and AI chatbots, have no patience for deception. They are subconsciously tired of 'power over people'. They want 'power with people'. They may not yet articulate it in manifestos or doctrines, but their message is unmistakable: “We are done being governed.”

48 hours that shook the world

What took the French Revolution years of bloodshed and the Arab Spring months of protest, the GenZ revolution in Nepal did in two days.

  • How?
  • Because networks move faster than armies.
  • Because code travels quicker than bullets.
  • Because consciousness, once shared, cannot be contained.

These uprisings are not about replacing one ruler with another—they are about rejecting the very idea that anyone should rule.

Governance sans government

For the first time in human history, we possess the tools to organize without centralized authority. Imagine digital direct-democracy platforms built on blockchain, AI moderators ensuring fairness and open-source decision-making systems where every voice counts—instantly and equally. This is not a utopia. This is a prototype.

From community-managed food chains to transparent public budgeting through smart contracts, from AI-powered education to global data-driven healthcare—governance without government is already emerging in fragments. GenZ will simply connect the fragments.

The only dilemma ahead

The only dilemma GenZ faces now is a psychological one—they have shaken the old systems, but they may not yet fully see the vision of government-less governance. In moments of uncertainty, they risk falling back into the same old representative traps—supporting one or another version of the systems they just overthrew.

The challenge, therefore, is not to revert, but to reimagine. The future demands that GenZ move forward, not sideways—that they design governance beyond governments, coordination beyond control, and community beyond hierarchy. If they dare to continue the experiment, they might just complete the democratic dream humanity began dreaming centuries ago.

From voting to evolving

Democracy, as we know it, was built for a slower world—when messages took weeks to travel and citizens met once every five years to vote. But GenZ doesn’t wait five seconds to express themselves.

They are building an always-on democracy—participatory, responsive, transparent. They will not vote once and surrender. They will live in a continuous loop of co-creation, decision, feedback and correction—a living, breathing organism of collective intelligence. AI will not rule them; it will serve them—as a neutral tool to manage data, not to manipulate truth.

The end of fear

Every system of control has thrived on fear: fear of chaos, fear of punishment, fear of one another. But the GenZ revolution is not born of fear—it is born of clarity. They have realized that humanity’s greatest experiment—government—has reached its evolutionary limit. It cannot evolve faster than the world it tries to govern. It cannot think collectively enough to solve collective crises.

The liberation that philosophers only imagined and (godless) religions only promised is now a technological possibility: a world without rulers, where cooperation replaces coercion and community replaces authority.

A global self-reboot

The GenZ uprisings are not the end of civilization. They are the upgrade. Old systems will resist, of course. Power never surrenders easily. But no wall can hold back a generation that speaks in code, builds reality in the cloud and dreams beyond flags and borders. The real question is no longer whether governments will survive—it is whether they are still necessary.

In the near future, we may look back on presidents, parliaments and police states the way we now look at feudal lords—relics of a primitive stage in human evolution. And somewhere, between a livestream and a blockchain vote, a GenZ coder will whisper the words that mark the dawn of a new civilization.