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Nearly five decades ago, when I was a student of economics at the Tribhuvan University, all master’s level students had to serve in rural areas of the country—they had to perform social work and teach in schools under the program called National Development Service (NDS). Normally, master’s degree programs took two years to complete, but the NDS component turned into a three-year program.

My assignment was at a lower middle school in Khurkot (Sindhuli district) and I was the first NDS student to be sent to this school, where I received a warm welcome from the teachers and villagers.

Our primary task was to help build a toilet at the school, as there was none. Local people and teachers came together, pooled in necessary resources and built the toilet in three months. In addition, I organized an inter-school quiz competition, launched an awareness campaign encouraging parents to send their daughters to school and worked to reduce anti-social activities.

A bridge between the hills and the Tarai, Khurkot, located at the foot of the Mahabharat range and on the banks of the Sunkoshi river, has been a center for trade and commerce between the people of the hills and the Tarai for centuries. These days, Khurkot, with roads all around it, namely the Dhulikhel-Bardibas road (west), Khurkot-Manthali road (north) and the Khurkot-Katari road (east), has transformed into a bustling small town on the Sunkoshi banks with shops, hotels and lodges.

Despite these changes on the outside, there has not been any marked improvement in the life of its residents. The most visible change, perhaps, is the replacement of thatched roofs with zinc sheets. What struck me was that many of the shops, hotels and lodges that have sprung up in Khurkot do not belong to the local people; they belong to outsiders.

Primarily, Khurkot is home to Chhetri and Bahun (Brahmin) communities, most of whom are farmers, with a handful in civil service. Many youths from these communities have gone abroad for work to support their families, leaving behind the once fertile land near the Sunkoshi that is now home to nearly 1,000 families.

This is a departure from the past when people used to live off less fertile land, particularly on the lap of the Mahabharat range, growing crops like maize, paddy and wheat. In those times, they used to grow crops three times a year.

Close by Khurkot are the fertile farmlands of Jhagajholi, Ratmata, Mulkot and Khalte that support the livelihoods of around 5,000 households. But during my recent visit to Khurkot, I saw a disturbing trend from Ghurmi and beyond: the conversion of fertile farmlands into residential plots everywhere—across the hills, the valleys and the Tarai.

While taking a break from the journey in Khurkot, I had the opportunity to strike a conversation with some locals in a shed, which is a popular hangout. When I took up the issue of loss of farmland through its conversion into residential plots, they acknowledged that the farmlands could have supported a thriving agricultural economy. They lamented that they no longer had fertile land for farming.

Mulkot too has lost its fertile land and turned into a concrete jungle.

In summary, Khurkot and Mulkot point at an alarming rate of loss of fertile land across the country, a phenomenon that has caused a drastic decline in food production and increased our dependence on food imports, exacerbating food insecurity and landlessness.

Time has come to reverse this disturbing trend. 

The historic city of Janakpur, the capital of the ancient Mithila kingdom and the birthplace of Goddess Sita, the consort of Lord Ram, has been suffering utter neglect for ages, with the government of Nepal not bothering to put it on its tourism map. 

Though the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Civil Aviation, the Department of Tourism and Nepal Tourism Board have not bothered to bring to light the glory of this ancient city and draw in tourists, better days seem to be ahead for the city and adjacent areas as they constitute a central part of the Ramayan Circuit, one of the most ambitious projects of the Narendra Modi-led Indian government that aims to connect all sacred places associated with the life and times of Ram and Sita. 

To further propagate the glory of Nepal, the government should step up efforts for inclusion of the Janaki Temple in the UNESCO World Heritage Sites’ list.

During his third visit to Nepal as the PM of India in May 2018, Narendra Modi had visited Janakpur as well, signifying the importance of the ancient city. 

Welcoming Modi, our Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli had expressed hope that the Ramayan Circuit will further improve the ties between the people of Nepal and India. Modi, on his part, had aptly said that he was in Janakpurdham not as the PM of India but as a prime pilgrim. These words from the two PMs still resonate in the city and beyond. 

On the occasion, the two sides had launched a Janakpur-Ayodhya direct bus service and India had  announced an assistance package of Rs 1bn for the development of Janakpurdham.

At that time, PM Oli had said he and Modiji had “agreed to address outstanding issues between the two countries in a timebound manner” while PM Modi had expressed satisfaction over the opportunity to visit important pilgrimage sites and promised to visit Lumbini, the birthplace of Gautam Buddha, whenever an opportunity arises.

Peace, harmony and spirituality are some of the common features of our two countries. It is no wonder that people from all over the world come as pilgrims and tourists to Nepal and India in search of peace, bliss and spirituality. Increasing inflow of people to Lumbini, Janakpurdham, Pashupatinath, Varanasi, Kedarnath, Bodhgaya and numerous other destinations in the mountains and in the plains is a living proof of this desire.

Back to Janakpur. The Department of Archaeology came up with a good news recently. It stated that it had found remnants of ancient civilizations dating back to the third or the second century BC on the banks of the Jamuni river in Dhanusha district. In a press release, the department pointed out that eight different civilizations may have existed in and around the site in different time periods, noting that cultural layers in the area date back to the Kusand period of the first to second century AD to the Maurya period ( 2-3 century BC). The department has reportedly unearthed ancient brick walls, foundations of human settlements, manmade pits, piles of mud utensils and post holes used for erecting wooden pillars. 

These remains have unique imprints of the Maurya civilization, comparatively advanced relics of the Kusand period like iron slag, terracotta beads, terracotta bangles and bricks as well as unique utensil pieces called Northern Black Polished Ware, which date back to 600-300 BC. During the excavation that involved digging a (4 * 3) trench, the department also collected samples of charcoal, bone and mud for further research in the area.

Unearthing of these remains once again shows how important Janakpurdham and surrounding areas are and how important it is for the government to preserve the priceless heritages of Nepal. Janakpur can also play a key role in boosting relations between Nepal and India, apart from bringing tourists and pilgrims from the world over to Nepal.

The time has come for our government authorities to wake up from deep slumber and work toward the preservation of priceless heritages of Janakpurdham and surrounding areas. I call upon the government to take a step in that direction by declaring 2025 as the ‘Visit Janakpur’ year.

It is natural to wonder how accurate credit rating agencies like Fitch and Moody’s are in assessing countries. Nepal’s situation has been shown to be good in the first-ever sovereign rating in Nepal.

Rating agency

Fitch Ratings, one of the world’s three major rating companies, has given Nepal a ‘Double B Minus’ rating, which is said to be the best among South Asian countries except India. Fitch has given this rating based on Nepal’s excellent foreign exchange reserves and strong economic growth projections. The government can influence the operation and financial environment of corporate entities existing in the country.

The basic economics and trade dynamics that develop within a country are influenced by other unique features such as infrastructure, roads, ports and telecommunications, etc. 

Parameters and factors

So, to analyze the various controls that the government can use that can affect the business performance of each company within the government's jurisdiction, it is considered: regulatory framework, tariffs, fiscal policy, monetary policy, foreign exchange controls, physical and human infrastructure, financial markets, macro factors (consumer spending, inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange risks).

While giving ratings, they usually look at the socio-economic situation and other factors such as political stability, inflation rate, power index, spending on welfare schemes, current account and fiscal account deficit, balance of payments position and GDP growth, etc.

While rating banks and financial institutions, they look at the internal strength of the institution, various financial parameters, and growth rate. 2/3 years of performance, current market scenario and the prevailing economic situation in the country of the said financial institution(s).

Process

The ‘rating’ is carefully checked by experts and issued after discussion by the committee. The only limitation is that these analyses are based on published figures, sometimes combined with anonymous data provided by the issuer. 

If the data provider feeds analysts with incorrect data,  there is little they can do.

In retrospect, the Enron case in the United States and the Parmalat case in Italy are good examples of ratings based on fraudulent data. 

Of course, there are external auditors (paid by the issuers) who verify the accounts and many supervisors who have little, if any, upfront role. That being the case, one can trust the rating agencies, although the published ratings and related research are only one of the data to be taken into account. The others are published accounts, related audits, and economic forecasts.

Accuracy

Generally, ratings are accurate unless fraudulent data is provided. 

Some people and their critics say that even international rating agencies are not saints. Sometimes it has been shown that there were reasons other than professional ones on the day of the assessment (grade down or upgradation) and they tend to base their decisions on perceptions and political views and without any concrete reasons and hard facts. But such cases are rare.

​On average, Nepal’s current rating is two places below India, but is the best among other South Asian countries. It should be considered historic to get such a position in the first-ever rating.

Sovereign credit

A team from Fitch Credit Ratings came to Nepal a few months back  to assess Nepal’s sovereign credit rating. This grade was obtained on the basis of an analysis of Nepal’s short-term stability in the economy.

​A sovereign rating provides information about the risks that may arise when investing in a country’s bonds, including political risks. ​At the request of a country, the credit rating agency independently evaluates the economic and political environment of that country and provides it with a rating. Also, foreign investors look at the ‘country rating’ of that country to assess how safe it is to invest in a country.

​Although the rating received by Nepal now generally recognizes Nepal’s ability to repay its debt, it has shown signs of economic risk. ​A country needs a credit rating to raise debt by issuing bonds in the international market.

Foreign investment

Countries also give ratings to attract foreign investment. The world’s largest S&P, Fitch and Moody’s use ratings ranging from the best ‘AAA’ (triple A) to the worst C grade.

​The way they assign ratings varies slightly. For example, Moody’s gives a C rating to the worst, that is, a bankrupt country or entity, while S&P gives an SD rating and Fitch gives an RD-D rating.

​Among them, ratings from BBB minus and above are considered good for investment, while ratings below that up to B minus are considered speculative ratings. ​Ratings below that are considered high-risk or likely to go bankrupt. Fitch gave this rating after studying Nepal’s weak revenue situation, political instability, and the need for reform in the economic structure.

Fitch has positively assessed some of Nepal’s economic indicators. Low debt burden is considered a good thing.

What is Fitch Ratings?

​Fitch Ratings is a company that rates the integrity of debt instruments such as bonds based on the financial stability of the issuing company or government entity. The role of Fitch Ratings is to determine the likelihood that the issuing entity will default and fail to repay its debt.

Fitch Ratings, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s are the three major agencies that rate bonds. Using similar grading systems, the companies scale bonds from high-quality ‘investment grade’ to low-quality ‘speculative’ or junk bonds.

Bonds are rated before they are issued, and that process plays a large role in the return that must be paid to investors. The higher the risk, the higher the return that must be paid. Events later in the life of the bond can also cause the agencies to change the bond’s rating.

Fitch also provides sovereign credit ratings that describe each nation’s ability to meet its debt obligations. Sovereign credit ratings help investors gain insight into the level of risk associated with investing in a particular country. ​

Countries invite Fitch and other credit rating agencies to assign representative ratings to assess their economic and political environment and financial conditions.

A good credit rating is essential, especially for developing nations, as it gives them access to international bond markets.

In 2018, Fitch gave the United States its highest long-term sovereign credit rating, AAA. At the bottom was Brazil with BB-.

​Nepal’s government debt is 44 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). 

Fitch pointed out that the high level of debt at low interest rates, and a large portion of Nepal’s external debt at concessional rates, has protected the country from fiscal pressures. The report also noted that foreign exchange reserves are good.

Overreliance on remittances is also cited as a long-term problem. It also pointed out that Nepal needs to improve in some areas to improve its rating. Fitch also suggested that political stability should be accompanied by long-term economic policy. Fitch noted that Nepal’s economic stability has improved.

Many European politicians have long held the view that they are biased against European countries, or biased in favor of large corporations that pay them, or biased in some other twisted fashion.

​In Sept 2011, after S&P downgraded Italy, Silvio Berlusconi is remembered for threatening the rating agencies, accusing them of ‘political motivation’. This may have something to do with the fact that all the big three firms are American, although Fitch says it has a ‘dual’ headquarters structure—New York and London (and has argued in the past that its ultimate owners are French).

Accusations that they were to blame for the 2008 global financial crisis were also widespread.

In the Asian context, credit rating agencies have also been blamed for the 1997-8 financial crisis.

The subjectivity involved in the exercise of judgment by rating analysts when factoring in rating decisions regarding the qualitative, ambiguous, institutional quality, political economy, ‘willingness to pay’ and governance have been shown empirically to be important. For some critics, the door to bias may, in this way, be clearly framed.

Overall, Nepal’s first-ever ‘credit rating’ is a source of pride, self-respect and a good start for the country. It is about addressing its shortcomings and weaknesses, rather than highlighting its negative aspects and failures in other countries. In the coming days, the country can expect progressive development through its successful use.

While the Lakhe dance was in full swing in the ancient town of Dolakha on the eve of Hile Jatra, the editor of Shankhdhwani Media, Mahendra Shrestha, wrote about the traditional dance implying that Newars chased from the Kathmandu valley have been performing this dance (for ages) in areas where they have resettled, including in Dolakha. 

There’s no doubt that the Newars perform the Lakhe dance in places of their residence, but I could not digest his view that seemed to imply that a section of the Newars chased away from the valley resettled in Dolakha. This is because the kingdom of Dolakha was one of the four kingdoms of the Newars during the medieval period (along with Lalitpur, Bhaktapur and Kathmandu). It was as prominent as the kingdoms of the valley as noted historian Baburam Acharya has clearly written in his work titled ‘Nepalko Sanskrtik Parampara’: Between Trishuli and Tamakoshi rivers, the kings of the four Malla kingdoms of Kathmandu, Lalitpur,  Bhaktapur and Dolakha on the north side of the Mahabharata mountain range seem to  be referring to the area where they rule as ‘Nepal’. But later, when the kings started calling themselves ‘Dolakhadhipati’ (the kings of Dolakha, as inscribed in the coin of Dolakha), the border of the state of Nepal got further ‘narrowed’, with the eastern border constricted to the Sunkoshi river.  

Therefore, it is not logical to say that the Newars of Dolakha were driven out of  Kathmandu. It is beyond doubt that Newars were chased from the valley or fled it at some point in time, they may even have entered Dolakha while fleeing the valley and taken shelter there. This is because two-three Newar families living in Dolakha still claim that their ancestors came from Bhaktapur, but no other Newar family identifies Kathmandu or Patan as the place of their ancestors.  

The translated segment of ‘Mero Katha Mero Vyatha’, a book authored by Bhaktapur-based senior litterateur and Nepali Congress leader Tilak Prakash about the escape of the Newars from the valley, reads:

“Even after the capture of the Kathmandu valley in the 18th century of Vikram Sambat, the wrath of the ambitious king of Gorkha, Prithvi Narayan Shah, had not subsided. As soon as Kirtipur fell, he started torturing the people. Prithvi Narayan Shah was very angry with the people close to the palace of Bhaktapur and intellectuals. That is why thousands of Bhaktapur residents were killed after the war. Thousands of people left their children and women stranded at home and fled empty-handed, some to the east, some to the west, some to the north and some to the south, overnight. Some of these people started residing in Naya Pati of the present-day Kathmandu, some in Dolakha, Dumja and some in Aiselukharka of Sindhupalchowk. Those who moved to the west started living in places like Dhading, Nuwakot, Rasuwa, Chitwan, Bandipur, Syangja, Tanahun, Pokhara, Tansen and Lamjung.”

Acharya’s (translated) account of three different waves of exodus from the valley read thus: 

“Upon the return of Malla king Bhupatindra to power, those opposing his return were driven out of the Kathmandu valley. After Prithvi Narayan Shah’s conquest of the valley, thousands of people, who helped and supported the Malla kings were either killed, deported or fled overnight to save their lives. Then, during the reign of Rana Bahadur Shah as well, thousands of families and households infected with smallpox were driven away from the kingdom.”

Historian Acharya explains the reason behind the spread of the Newars from Mechi to Mahakali thus:

“After the end of the Malla dynastic rule, King Prithvi Narayan Shah and his successors introduced a rule to not recruit people from Newar communities in the army. As a result, the ‘Chhathari Vaishyas’, who claimed to be the Kshetriyas, were left without their ancestral profession, with their entry into the army banned. These people landed positions in government offices, in the Hills and in the Tarai, from Mechi to Mahakali”. 

After the lifting of restrictions on recruitment into the army, my ancestor, Major Dhanman Joshi, served in Kumaon Gadhwal for a few years. This shows that the Newars have not only been driven out of the valley, but have also reached different parts of the country in the course of employment. For example, my father’s elder brother left for a job in Bhojpur district and settled there.  

Historian Acharya rings alarm regarding the tendency of Newars forgetting their mother tongue after emigration through this account(translated): 

“Between 1769 and 1805, some Newars were driven out or expelled from Nepal Byansi. They have settled in main settlements like Pokhara, Palpa, Dhankuta, Doti; these people have already forgotten or are on the verge of forgetting their dialect. The same is true for the Newars, who later migrated from the valley on their own. In some places like Dolakha, which is (one of the) original hometowns of the Newars, the Newari dialect still survives.”

Another important reason why Newars have spread across the country and set up markets there is that Newars are proficient in the art of doing business. According to historian Acharya, “King Prithvi Narayan Shah laid the foundation of modern Nepal in 1766 and started reunifying Nepal by making Kathmandu the national capital. By 1792, Nepal covered the Tista river in the east, the Alaknanda in the west, whereas in 1805, Nepal’s western border extended further to the Sutlej river.

The unification of Nepal also meant expansion of the market and the Newars, well known for their trade and business skills, went across the country from Bhaktapur, Patan, Banepa, Dhulikhel and Dolakha, set up their businesses and settled there.  

The descendants of some of these intrepid traders and businessmen can still be found in Dolakha. It may be recalled that in Pithoragarh of Kumaon, which was under Nepal’s control for 25 years before the 1814-1816 Anglo-Nepal War, the Lakhe dance is shown during ‘Hille Jatra’ in August as in Dolakha, which is locally known as ‘Lakhia Bhoot’. Newars might have introduced this Jatra and Lakhe dance there as well.  

The author, a professor of Business economics, writes on economic and cultural matters